Economic News - In the first half of the year, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, with domestic demand contributing 68.8% to economic growth, showcasing the resilience of the large domestic market despite external challenges [1] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for a strong global financial governance framework to prevent and resolve international economic and financial crises [1] - The China Engineering Machinery Industry Association reported a 12.4% year-on-year decline in the sales of graders in August 2025, with domestic sales increasing by 16.1% [1] - Guangdong Province aims to achieve a revenue of 100 billion yuan in the toy industry by 2027, with AI toy penetration expected to exceed 30% [1] - Zhejiang Province has initiated a financial service mechanism for urban renewal projects, with a total credit amount of 337.59 billion yuan approved for 49 key projects [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported that over 1,000 enterprises are involved in national agricultural technology projects, accounting for 51% of total participants [1] - China's trade with ASEAN grew by 9.7% in the first eight months of the year, maintaining ASEAN as China's largest trading partner [1] Important Company News - RIFENG Co., Ltd. received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for a stock issuance to specific investors [4] - Air China reported a 3.2% year-on-year increase in passenger turnover for August 2025, with international capacity increasing by 12.6% [4] - China Pacific Insurance announced a transfer of shares from Shanghai International Group to Shanghai Jiu Shi Group and Shanghai Electric, with no change in control [4] - Longpan Technology signed a procurement agreement with CATL for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials, with total sales expected to exceed 6 billion yuan [4] - Aoyang Health announced a share transfer agreement, with Aoyang Group transferring 20% of its shares to Yuesheng Technology for a total of 593 million yuan [4] Daily Research Report - As of August 2025, the total social financing (TSF) grew by 8.8% year-on-year, with a decrease in new loans and a slowdown in credit demand [5][6] - The government bond financing's contribution to TSF is expected to decline as the issuance slows down, leading to a potential decrease in credit growth [6] - The new loans in August amounted to 590 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 310 billion yuan [7] - The average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.1%, showing a slight decrease [7] - M1 growth continued to rise while M2 growth remained stable, indicating a shift in deposit trends [8] Company Analysis - ZTO Express reported a business volume of 9.847 billion pieces in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, but a slight decline in market share [10][11] - The company adjusted its annual business volume guidance down to 38.8-40.1 billion pieces, reflecting a more competitive environment [11] - The average revenue per package decreased slightly, but the increase in key account customers helped mitigate some revenue loss [12][13] - The company's single-package gross profit margin faced pressure due to increased competitive pricing, but recovery is expected in the second half of the year [14]

Core Viewpoint - The aviation stocks have risen in the afternoon trading session, driven by increased demand for domestic and international flights during the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday periods [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - China National Aviation (601111) rose by 4.82% to HKD 5.44 [1] - Eastern Airlines (00670) increased by 3.74% to HKD 3.05 [1] - Southern Airlines (600029) gained 2.65% to HKD 3.88 [1] Group 2: Ticket Booking Trends - As of September 8, domestic flight ticket bookings for the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays exceeded 3.26 million, with a daily average increase of over 26% compared to the same period last year [1] - International flight ticket bookings surpassed 1.16 million, with a daily average increase of approximately 15% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Market Insights - According to Guotai Junan Securities, significant activities in early September have led to a rapid recovery in market volume and pricing, particularly in Beijing, with active business travel demand [1] - Anticipated major meetings in October are expected to shift business travel demand forward, supporting continued positive trends in volume and pricing through mid to late September [1] - Forecasts suggest that airline profitability may continue to grow year-on-year in Q3 2025, despite potential price wars in Q4 2024 leading to lower ticket prices [1] - The industry is expected to significantly reduce losses and potentially turn profitable for the year, driven by a recovery in business travel demand and a slowdown in fleet growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The aviation sector is experiencing a rise in stock prices, driven by increased demand for domestic and international flights during the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, with significant growth in ticket bookings compared to last year [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of the report, China National Aviation (00753) increased by 4.82% to HKD 5.44, Eastern Airlines (00670) rose by 3.74% to HKD 3.05, and Southern Airlines (01055) gained 2.65% to HKD 3.88 [1] Group 2: Ticket Booking Trends - As of September 8, domestic flight ticket bookings for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays exceeded 3.26 million, with an average daily booking increase of over 26% compared to the same period last year [1] - International flight ticket bookings surpassed 1.16 million, with a daily booking increase of approximately 15% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Market Insights - According to Guotai Junan Securities, following significant events in early September, the Beijing market has seen a rapid recovery in both volume and price, with active demand from business travelers [1] - Anticipating the impact of major meetings in October, business travel demand is expected to shift forward, supporting continued positive trends in volume and pricing through mid to late September [1] - It is projected that airline profitability will continue to grow year-on-year in Q3 2025, with expectations of reduced losses in the off-peak season due to a price war in Q4 2024, leading to an overall industry turnaround [1] - The long-term outlook for the aviation industry remains positive, with expectations for an increase in profitability as business travel demand recovers and market pricing becomes more competitive [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation transportation industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The aviation sector is expected to see a bottoming out of its economic cycle, with potential improvements in demand and pricing as the supply growth remains low [5][8] - Despite a decline in ticket prices during the peak summer season, there are signs of recovery in business travel demand, which may lead to better pricing in the near future [5][8] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - China National Aviation (601111 CH): Buy, Target Price: 9.25 CNY [4] - China Eastern Airlines (600115 CH): Buy, Target Price: 4.80 CNY [4] - China Southern Airlines (600029 CH): Buy, Target Price: 7.35 CNY [4] - Spring Airlines (601021 CH): Buy, Target Price: 67.80 CNY [4] - 吉祥航空 (603885 CH): Buy, Target Price: 16.25 CNY [4] - 华夏航空 (002928 CH): Buy, Target Price: 13.65 CNY [4] - Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Buy, Target Price: 13.20 HKD [4] Industry Performance - In August, the three major airlines and Spring Airlines saw a 5.0% increase in available seat kilometers (ASK) and a 5.8% increase in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), leading to an overall passenger load factor increase of 0.6 percentage points to 86.8% [5][11] - Domestic ticket prices showed a year-on-year decline of 6.5% during the peak summer season, but there was a 2.5% increase in ticket prices in early September [5][8] Company-Specific Insights - China National Aviation reported a revenue of 80.757 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 1.6% increase year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.806 billion CNY, narrowing by 35.1% [23] - China Eastern Airlines achieved a revenue of 66.822 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 4.1% increase year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.592 billion CNY, narrowing by 42.5% [23] - China Southern Airlines reported a revenue of 86.291 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 1.8% increase year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.533 billion CNY, which is a 24.8% increase in loss year-on-year [24] - Spring Airlines reported a revenue of 10.304 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 4.3% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.169 billion CNY, a 14.1% decrease year-on-year [24] - 吉祥航空 reported a revenue of 11.067 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 1.0% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.505 billion CNY, a 3.3% increase year-on-year [24] - 华夏航空 reported a revenue of 3.610 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 12.4% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.251 billion CNY, an increase of 859.0% year-on-year [24] - Cathay Pacific reported a revenue of 54.309 billion HKD in the first half of 2025, a 9.5% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.651 billion HKD, a 1.1% increase year-on-year [24]

港股三大航空股集体上涨，其中，中国国航涨约2%，中国南方航空涨1.6%，中国东方航空涨超1%。 责任编辑：栎树 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 涨跌幅 v | | --- | --- | --- | | 00753 | 中国国航 | 5.290 1.93% | | 01055 | 中国南方航空股 | 3.840 1.59% | | 00670 | 中国东方航空股 | 2.970 1.02% | 消息上，高盛研究报告指，内地航空业次季强劲反弹，但该行认为暑假表现未如理想，国内航空需求仍 然疲弱。展望未来，考虑到航空公司已进一步减慢增购机队，且预测2025至27年净需求增长率为3%、 1%及1%，该行认为国际机票价格的按年跌幅将显著收窄，国内机票价格亦有机会自9月起改善。另一 方面，油价下跌亦将对航空公司的盈利有正面影响。 股份方面，该行看好中国国航，因其在盈利较高的航线中占比较高，若票价上升将成为最大受惠者；国 航H股目标价由6.5港元上调至7.3港元，国航A股目标价由8.6元上调至9.6元，评级"买入"。该行将中国 东方航空股份H股目标价由3.3港元上调至3.7港元，东航A股目标价由4.6元上调至5.1元，均 ...

Group 1 - The three major Hong Kong airline stocks, including Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, experienced collective gains, with Air China rising approximately 2%, China Southern Airlines increasing by 1.6%, and China Eastern Airlines up over 1% [1] - Goldman Sachs reported a strong rebound in the mainland aviation industry for the second quarter, but noted that summer performance was not ideal, with domestic air travel demand remaining weak [1] - The firm predicts a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline in international ticket prices, while domestic ticket prices may improve starting in September [1] Group 2 - Air China's passenger turnover increased by 3.2% year-on-year in August, indicating a gradual recovery in profitability [2] - China Southern Airlines reported an increase in passenger turnover of 5.97% year-on-year and a cargo turnover increase of 5.48% in August [2] - China Eastern Airlines saw an 8.72% year-on-year increase in passenger turnover in August and plans to hold a joint mid-term performance briefing on September 12 [2]

Group 1 - The 2025 China International Service Trade Fair (CIFTIS) is held in Beijing, focusing on financial services with the theme "Digital Intelligence Drives Open Win-Win" [1] - The Shunyi District is promoting a "Investment-Loan Linkage Cooperation Alliance" to enhance the local economy through a combined equity investment and debt financing model [1][2] - Shunyi District aims to improve its investment environment and attract quality financial institutions to support high-quality economic development [1][2] Group 2 - The Investment-Loan Linkage Cooperation Alliance integrates financial resources into a "one-stop" service system, improving financing efficiency and reducing costs for enterprises [2] - The alliance shifts from traditional financial assessments to a more holistic ecological view, providing systematic solutions to financing challenges [2] - Shunyi District's financial sector has shown growth, with a financial industry value added of 32.16 billion yuan in 2024, an 8% increase year-on-year [2][3] Group 3 - Shunyi District has attracted over 500 quality financial institutions, including banks and large industry funds, creating a diverse financial ecosystem [3] - The district's capital market has seen significant activity, with 134 listed companies raising nearly 240 billion yuan [3] - New policies to support high-quality industrial finance development were announced, including financial support for new institutions and enterprises [3][4] Group 4 - Shunyi District focuses on high-end manufacturing, including sectors like new energy vehicles and aerospace, while promoting modern service industries [4] - The district has successfully launched over 60 financial projects, leveraging its advantages as the largest area in Beijing's free trade zone [4][5] - There is an emphasis on deep integration of finance with high-end manufacturing sectors to achieve coordinated development [5]

Major Events - Different Group (06090) is set to launch its IPO from September 15 to September 18, with an expected listing date of September 23 [1] - Hesai Technology-W (02525) has received 168.65 times subscription for its public offering in Hong Kong, with a share price of HKD 212.80 [1] - Basilea Pharmaceutica-B (02616) will showcase CS2015 (OX40L/TSLP bispecific antibody) at ACAA 2025 [1] - CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) has received clinical trial approval in China for ALMB-0166 to treat Parkinson's disease [1] - Kingdee International (00268) plans to acquire a 62.764% stake in Yunzhijia for HKD 68.25 million [1] - Lion Group Holdings (02562) intends to acquire a company leading in AI, blockchain, decentralized finance, and stablecoin innovation [1] - COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919) plans to invest CNY 370 million to establish a joint venture [1] - Shoujia Technology (00103) aims to set up a joint venture for a super new materials company [1] - CITIC Limited (00267) has its "data-driven high-end mining equipment intelligent factory" recognized as a 2025 excellent-level intelligent factory by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [1] - Eden Software (01147) has its self-developed "Easy AI multimodal content generation" algorithm approved for algorithm filing in Shenzhen [1] Operating Performance - Hong Kong Dragon Land (06968) reported a contract sales amount of approximately CNY 3.602 billion for the first eight months, a year-on-year decrease of 0.16% [1] - China Southern Airlines (01055) saw an 8-month passenger turnover increase of 5.97% year-on-year [1] - China Eastern Airlines (00670) reported an 8-month passenger turnover increase of 8.72% year-on-year [1] - Air China (00753) recorded a 2.3% year-on-year increase in passenger capacity input and a 3.2% increase in passenger turnover for August [1] - Hong Kong Technology Exploration (01137) reported an August total merchandise transaction value of HKD 678 million in its e-commerce business, a year-on-year decline of 4.5% [1]

Core Insights - China National Airlines announced an increase in passenger turnover volume by 3.2% year-on-year for August 2025, measured in revenue passenger kilometers [2] - The average passenger load factor improved to 83.7%, up by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [2] Passenger Operations - Passenger capacity input, measured in available seat kilometers, increased by 2.3% year-on-year [2] - Domestic passenger capacity input decreased by 1.2%, with passenger turnover remaining flat [2] - International passenger capacity input rose by 12.6%, with passenger turnover increasing by 12.9% [2] - Regional passenger capacity input fell by 5.7%, with passenger turnover declining by 2.2% [2] - The average load factor for domestic routes increased by 1.1 percentage points, while international routes saw an increase of 0.2 percentage points, and regional routes improved by 2.9 percentage points [2] Cargo Operations - Cargo capacity input, measured in available cargo ton kilometers, increased by 1.5% year-on-year [2] - Cargo and mail turnover, measured in revenue cargo ton kilometers, rose by 10.2% year-on-year [2] - The cargo load factor improved to 42.1%, up by 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [2]

Core Viewpoint - China National Airlines (601111) (00753) reported an increase in passenger turnover volume and capacity for August 2025, indicating a positive trend in both domestic and international operations [1] Group 1: Passenger Operations - The group's passenger turnover volume (measured in revenue passenger kilometers) increased by 3.2% year-on-year [1] - Passenger capacity (measured in available seat kilometers) rose by 2.3% year-on-year [1] - Domestic passenger capacity decreased by 1.2%, while passenger turnover remained flat [1] - International passenger capacity increased by 12.6%, with passenger turnover rising by 12.9% [1] - Regional passenger capacity fell by 5.7%, and passenger turnover decreased by 2.2% [1] - The average passenger load factor was 83.7%, up by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Domestic routes saw a load factor increase of 1.1 percentage points, international routes increased by 0.2 percentage points, and regional routes rose by 2.9 percentage points [1] Group 2: Cargo Operations - Cargo capacity (measured in available cargo ton kilometers) increased by 1.5% year-on-year [1] - Cargo and mail turnover (measured in revenue cargo ton kilometers) rose by 10.2% year-on-year [1] - The cargo load factor was 42.1%, up by 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 3: Fleet Expansion - In August 2025, the group introduced 3 A320 series aircraft and 3 B737 series aircraft [1] - As of the end of August 2025, the group operated a total of 941 aircraft, including 419 owned, 228 under finance leases, and 294 under operating leases [1]