Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais indicates that ZTO Express (02057, ZTO.US) experienced a year-on-year revenue growth of 11% and an adjusted net profit growth of 7% in the third quarter, with an adjusted net profit per order of approximately 0.27 RMB, improving from 0.21 RMB in the second quarter [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - ZTO Express's revenue and adjusted net profit for Q3 increased by 11% and 7% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The adjusted net profit per order improved to about 0.27 RMB from 0.21 RMB in the previous quarter [1] - The core per order cost increased by only 0.02 RMB due to the launch of a new transit center [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Credit Lyonnais maintains a "Outperform" rating for ZTO Express, with a target price of 152 HKD for the Hong Kong stock and 20 USD for the US stock [1] - The expectation of continued implementation of anti-competitive policies in the industry suggests that regulatory bodies will enforce price floors to curb vicious price competition [1] - Given ZTO's favorable customer structure compared to peers, the company is expected to regain market share next year, leading to a slight upward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 2% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that ZTO Express (02057, ZTO. US) reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 11% and an adjusted net profit growth of 7% for the third quarter, with an adjusted net profit per order of approximately 0.27 RMB, improving from 0.21 RMB in the second quarter [1] - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for ZTO Express, with a target price of 152 HKD for the Hong Kong stock and 20 USD for the US stock [1] - The expectation of continued implementation of anti-competition policies in the industry is highlighted, with regulatory bodies likely to enforce price floors to curb vicious price competition [1] Group 2 - ZTO Express is expected to regain market share next year due to its better customer structure compared to peers, leading to a slight upward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 2% [1]

Group 1 - The company ZTO Express (02057) announced a share repurchase plan, committing to buy back 46,200 shares at a total cost of $877,200 [1] - The repurchase price is set between $18.97 and $18.99 per share [1]

Group 1 - The company, ZTO Express (02057.HK), announced a share buyback on November 20, 2025, spending $87.72 million to repurchase 46,200 shares [1] - The repurchase price per share ranged from $18.97 to $18.99 [1]

FF305 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02057 | 說明 | A類普通股 | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | | 事件 | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數 目 | | 佔有關事件前的現有已發 行股份（不包括庫存股 份）數目百分比 (註3) | 庫存股份數目 | 每股發行/出售價 (註4) | 已發行股份總數 | | 於下列日期開始時的結存(註1) | 2025年11月19日 | | 598,368,490 | | 0 | | 598,368,490 | | 1). 其他 (請註明) | | | | % | | | | | 見B部 | | | | | | | | | 變動日期 | 2025年11月20日 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that ZTO Express's Q3 net profit exceeded expectations due to normalized price competition, with adjusted net profit growing by 5% year-on-year, surpassing the bank's and market forecasts by 27% and 25% respectively [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - ZTO Express's adjusted net profit for Q3 increased by 5% year-on-year, exceeding Goldman Sachs' and market expectations [1] - The bank raised ZTO Express's target price to HKD 179 for H-shares and USD 23 for US shares, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 2: Future Projections - Goldman Sachs has revised its revenue forecasts for ZTO Express from 2025 to 2027 upwards by 0% to 4% and adjusted net profit forecasts by 6% to 8% [1] - For Q4 of this year, ZTO Express is expected to see a 10% year-on-year increase in package volume and a 1% rise in average price, leading to an anticipated 12% year-on-year revenue growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is expected to recover as the trend of reducing competition continues, with a focus on companies like YTO Express, ZTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Express, which show potential for growth and valuation recovery [1] Industry Volume and Price - As of October 2025, the express delivery industry's business volume growth rate is 7.9%, surpassing the growth rate of physical online retail sales at 4.9% and social consumer goods retail sales at 2.9% [1] - The average revenue per delivery in the express delivery industry is 7.48 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.00% and a month-on-month decline of 0.85%, influenced by the trend of smaller packages and localized price competition [1] Regional Volume and Price - In October 2025, the year-on-year growth rates for express delivery business volume in different regions are +6.7% for Class I areas, +12.6% for Class II areas, and +23.2% for Class III areas, with non-grain-producing areas showing significantly higher growth than grain-producing areas [2] - The year-on-year growth rates for average revenue per delivery in these regions are -2.5% for Class I areas, -5.0% for Class II areas, and -12.3% for Class III areas, indicating a notable easing of price competition in grain-producing areas [2] Company Volume and Price - In October 2025, the year-on-year business volume growth rates for major companies are as follows: YTO Express +12.82%, Yunda Express -5.11%, Shentong Express +3.98%, and SF Express +26.26%, with YTO Express and SF Express outperforming the industry average [3] - The year-on-year revenue per delivery growth rates for these companies are: YTO Express -3.46%, Yunda Express +4.46%, Shentong Express +7.39%, and SF Express -9.97%, indicating a significant price recovery in the context of reduced competition, particularly for Yunda Express and Shentong Express [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company's third-quarter performance showed revenue of 11.86 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.3%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.52 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30.2%. The significant growth in profitability is primarily attributed to the rise in express delivery prices under the "anti-involution" policy [1][2] - The report anticipates that the "anti-involution" policy will continue to support the company's performance in the fourth quarter, alongside the traditional peak season for e-commerce, leading to further increases in both delivery volume and revenue per package [1][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, the company achieved a single-package revenue of 1.22 yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.02 yuan. The total express delivery volume reached 9.57 billion packages, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.7% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.8% due to seasonal factors and rising prices affecting lower-value packages [2][3] - The single-package cost increased to 0.91 yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter rise of 0.09 yuan. The adjusted operating profit per package was 0.25 yuan, down 0.08 yuan year-on-year but stable quarter-on-quarter [3] Industry Outlook - The report indicates that the express delivery industry is shifting from a focus on volume growth to high-quality development due to the "anti-involution" policy. The overall growth rate of express delivery volume is expected to slow down, but the company, as a market leader with a 19.4% market share, is less affected by the reduction in low-value package demand [4][5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for the company has been raised, with net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 adjusted to 89.8 billion yuan, 106.6 billion yuan, and 121.1 billion yuan respectively. However, the valuation multiple has been lowered to 15.2x for 2025E PE, and the target price has been reduced by 10% to 185.9 HKD / 23.9 USD [5][11]

Group 1: Zhongtong Express - Zhongtong Express reported a revenue of 11.86 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.1% [1] - Adjusted net profit increased by 5.0% to 2.51 billion yuan, indicating strong competitiveness and operational efficiency in the express delivery market [1] - The total package volume reached 9.57 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, with a slight increase in core express revenue per order by 0.02 yuan [1] Group 2: Volcano Engine - Gartner released its 2025 global "AI Application Development Platform Magic Quadrant," ranking Volcano Engine fifth globally and first in China for its "implementation capability" [2] - As of September 2025, the Doubao large model processed an average of 30 trillion tokens daily, a remarkable increase of 253 times since its launch in May 2024 [2] - The presence of multiple domestic AI companies in the report highlights the significant position of Chinese AI technology in the global market [2] Group 3: Vipshop - Vipshop achieved a net revenue of 21.4 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [3] - Adjusted net profit rose by 14.6% to 1.5 billion yuan, indicating improved financial performance [3] - The number of active users reached 40.1 million, a 1.3% increase year-on-year, with total merchandise transaction volume growing by 7.5% to 43.1 billion yuan [3]

Group 1: Zhongtong Express - Zhongtong Express reported a revenue of 11.86 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.1% [1] - Adjusted net profit for the third quarter increased by 5.0% to 2.51 billion yuan [1] - The total package volume reached 9.57 billion pieces, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.8% [1] - The core express single ticket revenue increased by 0.02 yuan [1] Group 2: Volcano Engine - Gartner released its first large model report, placing Volcano Engine's "implementation capability" fifth globally and first in China [2] - As of September 2025, the Doubao large model processed an average of 30 trillion tokens daily, a 253-fold increase since its launch in May 2024 [2] - The presence of multiple domestic AI companies in the report highlights the significant position of Chinese AI technology in the global market [2] Group 3: Vipshop - Vipshop achieved a net revenue of 21.4 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [3] - Adjusted net profit for the third quarter was 1.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [3] - The number of active users reached 40.1 million, growing by 1.3% year-on-year, while the total merchandise transaction volume was 43.1 billion yuan, up by 7.5% [3]