证券研究报告 | 2026年02月02日 2026年02月03日 金融工程日报 沪指单边下行险守 4000 点，资源股全线下挫、白酒表现活跃 核心观点 金融工程日报 市场表现：20260202 市场全线下跌，规模指数中上证 50 指数表现较好，板 块指数中北证 50 指数表现较好，风格指数中沪深 300 价值指数表现较好。 食品饮料、银行、电新、家电、电力公用事业行业表现较好，有色金属、钢 铁、煤炭、石油石化、基础化工行业表现较差。特高压、白酒、光纤、培育 钻石、配网等概念表现较好，黄金精选、铅锌矿、黄金珠宝、存储器、磷化 工等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：20260202 市场情绪较为低迷，收盘时有 44 只股票涨停，有 130 只股票跌停。昨日涨停股票今日收盘收益为 0.40%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘 收益为-7.34%。今日封板率 61%，较前日下降 4%，连板率 20%，较前日 提升 10%。 市场资金流向：截至 20260130 两融余额为 27153 亿元，其中融资余额 26987 亿元，融券余额 166 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.6%，两融 交易占市场成交额比重为 9.4%。 折溢价：202 ...

2月3日，A股市场银行（核心股）股逆势下跌，其中，中国银行、工商银行、农业银行、建设银行、邮 储银行、上海银行、沪农商行跌超1%。 股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 | 代码 | 名称 | | 涨幅% ↑ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601988 | 中国银行 | 1 | -1.66 | 17174亿 | -6.98 | | 601398 | 工商银行 | 1 | -1.64 | 25661亿 | -9.21 | | 601288 | 农业银行 | 1 | -1.33 | 23414 乙 | -12.89 | | 601939 | 建设银行 | 1 | -1.25 | 22707亿 | -6.47 | | 601658 | 邮储银行 | 1 | -1.18 | 6053 Z | -5.43 | | 601229 | 上海银行 | | -1.17 | 1319亿 | -8.12 | | 601825 | 沪农商行 | 美 | -1.08 | 798亿 | -10.98 | | 601077 | 渝 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月02日 2026年02月03日 金融工程日报 沪指单边下行险守 4000 点，资源股全线下挫、白酒表现活跃 核心观点 金融工程日报 市场表现：20260202 市场全线下跌，规模指数中上证 50 指数表现较好，板 块指数中北证 50 指数表现较好，风格指数中沪深 300 价值指数表现较好。 食品饮料、银行、电新、家电、电力公用事业行业表现较好，有色金属、钢 铁、煤炭、石油石化、基础化工行业表现较差。特高压、白酒、光纤、培育 钻石、配网等概念表现较好，黄金精选、铅锌矿、黄金珠宝、存储器、磷化 工等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：20260202 市场情绪较为低迷，收盘时有 44 只股票涨停，有 130 只股票跌停。昨日涨停股票今日收盘收益为 0.40%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘 收益为-7.34%。今日封板率 61%，较前日下降 4%，连板率 20%，较前日 提升 10%。 市场资金流向：截至 20260130 两融余额为 27153 亿元，其中融资余额 26987 亿元，融券余额 166 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.6%，两融 交易占市场成交额比重为 9.4%。 折溢价：202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the ongoing institutional research on listed banks in January, focusing on credit issuance, net interest margin, asset quality trends, and bond investment strategies during the peak marketing season [1][2][7]. Group 1: Institutional Research and Credit Issuance - A total of 373 institutions conducted research on 11 A-share listed banks, with 49 research instances recorded by January 31 [1][7]. - The banks under review include Nanjing Bank, Ningbo Bank, Shanghai Bank, and others, with Nanjing Bank being the most favored, receiving 76 institutional inquiries [2][8]. - Institutions are particularly focused on credit issuance during the marketing peak, with many banks reporting better performance compared to the same period in 2025 [2][8]. - Key areas for credit issuance include manufacturing, infrastructure construction, and green low-carbon transformation projects [3][9]. Group 2: Net Interest Margin Stability - Net interest margin (NIM) is a critical indicator of banking performance, with banks focusing on stabilizing NIM through asset and liability management [4][11]. - Shanghai Bank anticipates a slight decline in NIM due to the expected decrease in loan market quotation rates (LPR) and competitive pressures on deposit pricing [11][12]. - Qilu Bank is optimizing its asset portfolio and enhancing low-cost deposit acquisition to stabilize NIM [11][12]. Group 3: Bond Investment Strategies - The bond market has been volatile since 2025, affecting the bond investment returns of regional small and medium-sized banks [6][12]. - Shanghai Bank expects bond rates to remain in a fluctuating range in 2026, with limited potential for a trend reversal [6][13]. - Hu Nong Bank plans to focus on bond investment for asset allocation while employing risk management strategies, including the use of derivatives [6][13]. Group 4: Asset Quality Management - Banks are implementing measures to maintain stable asset quality, including improving the quality of new loans and increasing efforts to manage non-performing loans [6][13].

Group 1 - In January, 11 A-share listed banks were surveyed by 373 institutions, with a total of 49 survey instances, focusing on credit issuance, net interest margin, asset quality trends, and bond investment strategies during the peak marketing season [1] - The surveyed banks include Nanjing Bank, Ningbo Bank, Shanghai Bank, Hangzhou Bank, Suzhou Bank, Qingdao Bank, Qilu Bank, Xiamen Bank, Hu Nong Bank, Qing Nong Bank, and Zijin Bank, with six banks experiencing stock price increases, led by Qingdao Bank with over 16% growth [2] - Nanjing Bank was the most favored by institutions, receiving 76 surveys, while Shanghai Bank received 75 surveys, indicating strong interest in their credit issuance during the marketing peak [2] Group 2 - The focus of the credit issuance during the peak marketing season is on corporate credit, with banks reporting better performance compared to the same period in 2025, emphasizing manufacturing, infrastructure, and green transformation projects [2][3] - Shanghai Bank anticipates a continued decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in 2026, which may lead to a slight decrease in net interest margin due to competitive market factors [4] - Qilu Bank aims to stabilize its net interest margin by optimizing asset management and expanding low-cost deposits while managing liabilities effectively [4] Group 3 - The overall pressure on net interest margin for listed banks is expected to ease in 2026, with a narrowing decline anticipated, supported by improvements in funding costs [5] - Shanghai Bank predicts that bond yields will continue to fluctuate within a range in 2026, with low likelihood of a trend reversal [5] - Hu Nong Bank plans to focus on bond investments primarily for allocation, while also employing advanced technologies for trading and risk management [6]

本文字数：2425，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 亓宁 黄金、白银价格暴涨后暴跌价格大涨大跌加速板块轮动，深受避险资金偏爱的银行股又成市场焦点。进入2026年以来，此前涨势如虹的国有大行股价均 有大幅回调，农业银行、工商银行分别跌超12%、8%。 2026.02. 02 从近期表现来看，与国有大行、股份行扛起"护盘"大旗不同，受到业绩快报等消息影响，区域性银行表现明显优于全国性银行，近期多家城农商行宣布 了股东或高管增持计划及进展，也被市场视为重要信号。多位机构人士认为，目前银行板块资金流出高峰已过，配置价值开始显现。 银行股坚定"护盘" 黄金、白银跌势还在持续。面对外回落，但之后短线拉升，一度助力沪指跌幅收窄。全天来看，银行股"护盘"吃力但也较为坚定，在31个申万一级行业 中，食品饮料、银行成唯二飘红板块。 截至当天收盘，沪指跌2.48%，深证成指跌2.69%，创业板指跌2.46%。其中，有色金属以7.62%的跌幅领跌，钢铁、化工、煤炭、石油天然气等资 源周期板块集体重挫，跌幅均在5%以上，半导体板块同样大幅走弱。全市场超4600只个股下跌，成交额约2.61万亿元，较上一交易日缩量近2500亿 元 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant decline on February 2, with the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index both dropping over 2% [2][4] - The market showed a broad-based decline, with 4,652 stocks closing lower, particularly in resource sectors such as metals, coal, oil, and chemicals [4][9] - The trading volume decreased significantly, with daily turnover dropping by 255.8 billion to 2.61 trillion [5] Sector Performance - Resource stocks were heavily impacted, with declines exceeding 5% in sectors like non-ferrous metals, steel, basic chemicals, coal, and oil [8][9] - The food and beverage sector, particularly liquor stocks, showed resilience, with several companies like Jinhuijiu and Youyou Food hitting the daily limit [6][7] - Banking stocks also performed relatively well, with several banks showing slight gains despite the overall market downturn [8] Market Sentiment and Factors - The decline was attributed to a combination of external market disturbances, profit-taking, and heightened risk aversion ahead of the holiday [3][11] - Analysts suggest that the market may need 3 to 5 trading days to stabilize, with a focus on whether the Shanghai Composite can hold above the 4,000-point mark [3][15] - The current market environment is characterized as a healthy technical correction rather than a trend reversal, with no signs of panic selling or liquidity crisis [12][14] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to avoid high-volatility sectors in the short term and to wait for clear signs of market stabilization before gradually increasing positions in quality sectors [3][16] - There is a recommendation to focus on defensive sectors such as electric grid equipment and high-dividend blue chips, while avoiding emotional selling [15][17] - The market is expected to recover quickly post-holiday, supported by liquidity replenishment and policy expectations from the upcoming Two Sessions [15][17]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for Shanghai Bank [12] Core Insights - The new management team under Chairman Gu Jianzhong has clarified strategic priorities and initiated significant organizational changes, which have garnered market attention regarding the bank's growth potential [3][6] - The bank is expected to enhance organizational efficiency, accelerate credit issuance, and stabilize net interest margins, leading to improved profitability and performance growth [3][10] Summary by Relevant Sections Governance and Organizational Changes - The new management has implemented a major organizational restructuring aimed at reducing management layers and improving efficiency, particularly in the Shanghai region [6][25] - The bank plans to increase the allocation of professional talent, especially frontline employees, to support key growth areas such as technology finance and wealth management [6][27] Strategic Focus - The corporate banking segment will focus on technology finance, leveraging Shanghai's position as an international innovation center [7][33] - The retail segment is enhancing wealth management services, with a significant portion of assets under management (AUM) coming from pension clients, indicating strong future potential for financial products and insurance [7][39] Credit and Profitability Outlook - Credit growth is expected to accelerate starting in 2026, with a focus on corporate loans, particularly in key projects and state-owned enterprises [8][46] - The bank's net interest margin is projected to stabilize around 1.15%, with interest income growth expected to accelerate in 2026 [8][53] Asset Quality and Risk Management - The bank has been actively managing asset quality, with a decline in non-performing loan ratios since their peak in 2022, and is expected to continue improving risk indicators [9][44] - The focus on corporate real estate loans is expected to mitigate risks, with significant provisions already made for historical non-performing loans [9][44] Investment Recommendations - The governance changes are seen as a core investment logic, with strong capital positions and a commitment to increasing dividend payouts, suggesting a favorable risk-reward profile [10][12] - The bank's projected price-to-book (PB) ratios for 2025-2027 are 0.54x, 0.51x, and 0.47x, with expected dividend yields of 5.5%, 5.8%, and 6.1% respectively [10]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced a significant drop, leading to panic in the Asia-Pacific markets, with major indices falling over 2% on February 2, 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market saw all three major indices drop more than 2%, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 2.48% to close at 4015.75 points [1] - The total market turnover was 2.61 trillion yuan, continuing a trend of reduced trading volume over two consecutive days [1] Group 2: ETF Performance - The Food and Beverage ETF (515710) rose by 0.86%, while the Banking ETF (512800) increased by 0.13% [2] - The Securities ETF (512000) fell by 1.23%, and the Technology ETF (515000) dropped by 3.36% [2] - The Precious Metals ETF (159876) saw a significant decline of 9.97%, indicating a strong sell-off in the sector [2] Group 3: Sector Analysis - The chemical and non-ferrous metals sectors faced heavy selling pressure, with the Chemical ETF (516020) down 6.98% and the Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) hitting the daily limit down [2] - Analysts from CITIC Securities suggest that the price increase narrative may continue throughout the first quarter, but caution is advised for the speculative precious metals sector [2] - The white liquor sector, particularly stocks like Kweichow Moutai, saw a surge, with the Food and Beverage ETF reaching a peak increase of 3.28% during the day [4][5] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Analysts from CITIC Securities and other institutions are optimistic about the white liquor sector, predicting a potential bottoming out opportunity in the coming years [7] - The banking sector is gaining attention as a potential rebound opportunity, with significant inflows into the Banking ETF, which has attracted nearly 11 billion yuan in the last ten days [14][16] - The overall market remains active ahead of the Chinese New Year, with a focus on sectors with strong fundamental support [4][16]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing significant volatility, particularly in the precious metals and banking sectors, with a notable shift in investor focus towards regional banks amid a backdrop of fluctuating gold and silver prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 2, the A-share market faced downward pressure, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 2.48%, the Shenzhen Component by 2.69%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.46% [2]. - The precious metals sector led the decline with a 7.62% drop, while other resource sectors like steel, chemicals, and coal also saw declines exceeding 5% [2]. - Despite the overall market downturn, bank stocks showed resilience, with 17 banks recording gains, led by CITIC Bank with a 2.64% increase [5]. Group 2: Banking Sector Dynamics - The banking sector has been characterized by a significant outflow of funds, with the China Securities Index reporting a cumulative decline of 6.76% in the banking index as of January 30 [5][6]. - Regional banks have outperformed national banks, with several local banks announcing share buyback plans, signaling potential recovery and investor confidence [1][9]. - Analysts suggest that the peak of fund outflows from the banking sector has passed, with the price-to-book ratio for bank stocks currently around 0.57, indicating potential value for investors [6][7]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment - There is a growing optimism regarding the banking sector's fundamentals, with expectations for a strong start to credit growth in 2026 and stable asset quality [9]. - Recent announcements of share purchases by bank executives and shareholders have bolstered market confidence, particularly among regional banks like Qilu Bank and Nanjing Bank [9]. - The shift in focus from passive to active fund management in the banking sector may lead to increased buying interest, especially if the selling pressure from passive funds diminishes [7][8].