证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·燃气Ⅱ [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2025 年 11 月 17 日 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 谷玥 执业证书：S0600524090002 guy@dwzq.com.cn 燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报 降温预期消化，美国气价回落、欧洲&中国气 价微降 增持（维持） 行业走势 -12% -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 21% 2024/11/18 2025/3/18 2025/7/16 2025/11/13 燃气Ⅱ 沪深300 相关研究 《天气转冷美国&欧洲气价上涨，中 国供应充足气价微降》 2025-11-10 《天气转冷美国&中国气价上涨，欧 洲燃气发电出力下降气价回落》 2025-11-03 东吴证券研究所 1 / 14 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 价格跟踪：降温预期消化，美国气价回落、欧洲&中国气价微降。截至 2025/11/14,美国 HH/欧洲 TTF/东亚 JKM/中国 LNG 出厂/中 ...

Core Points - Kunlun Energy successfully completed its first LNG bunkering operation at the Kwai Tsing Terminal in Hong Kong on November 16, marking a significant milestone following the first offshore LNG bunkering in Hong Kong earlier this year [1][3] - The operation involved the vessel "Yixing Haibanshi," which refueled to meet its fuel needs for a subsequent journey to Turkey [1][3] - The LNG bunkering service is part of a collaborative model between Shenzhen and Hong Kong, aiming to establish Hong Kong as a regional hub for green fuel supply [3][4] Company Strategy - Kunlun Energy's LNG bunkering business focuses on the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area while expanding its market reach nationally and globally [3] - The company has successfully completed 12 anchorage bunkering operations in Hong Kong as of mid-November, with expectations to complete over 100 LNG bunkering operations this year [3] Industry Impact - The successful completion of the LNG bunkering operation has attracted significant interest from both domestic and international shipping companies, leading to an increase in vessels choosing Hong Kong for green fuel bunkering [4] - The Hong Kong government emphasizes the importance of stable energy supply and aims to align green shipping standards with international practices [4]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The monetary policy continues to emphasize "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy" and "maintaining reasonable growth in financial aggregates" [6] - The report highlights a shift towards combining "counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments" in monetary policy, indicating a more forward-looking approach [6][7] - There is a reduced urgency for short-term monetary easing, focusing instead on implementing previous policies and preparing for cross-cyclical adjustments [7] Group 2: Technology and Manufacturing - The technology manufacturing sector remains buoyant, driven by global AI infrastructure investments, leading to increased demand in the semiconductor and energy sectors [9][12] - The real estate sector is experiencing a downturn, with a significant drop in property sales, particularly in first, second, and third-tier cities [10] - The lithium battery industry is seeing a substantial increase in demand, with prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate rising significantly [12] Group 3: Energy Storage - The introduction of a capacity pricing mechanism is expected to enhance the economic viability of energy storage across more provinces, driving significant growth in the sector [15][16] - Inner Mongolia's compensation for energy storage discharge is set at 0.28 yuan/kWh for 2026, which is expected to stimulate demand [17] - The bidding volume for energy storage in October 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 24% and 29% for new installations, indicating strong market demand [18] Group 4: Cement Industry - Zambia and Malawi are experiencing a significant cement supply gap, with Malawi's demand far exceeding its production capacity [26][27] - Huaxin Cement is the leading cement producer in Zambia, holding a substantial market share, and is expected to alleviate some supply shortages in Malawi [27] - Cement prices in Malawi are high, reaching $200 per ton, while Zambia's prices remain stable, contributing to strong profitability in the region [28] Group 5: Oil Industry - OPEC's decision to halt production increases is expected to support oil prices, with a projected increase in production of 137,000 barrels per day in December [31] - The oil market is anticipated to remain balanced in 2026, with demand growth primarily coming from OECD countries [32] - Investment recommendations include companies with strong cash flows and dividends, such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation and PetroChina [32] Group 6: Tourism Industry - The hotel industry is expected to benefit from a narrowing decline in operating data and positive changes in company structures, leading to improved valuations [34] - The RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) for leading hotel groups has shown a significant recovery, indicating a positive trend in the hospitality sector [35] - The supply structure in the hotel industry is diversifying, with smaller properties growing faster than larger ones, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [35] Group 7: Food and Beverage - The recent CPI data indicates a warming market sentiment, with expectations for white liquor to benefit from a style switch as the year ends [37] - The white liquor industry is experiencing a downturn, with Q3 revenues down 18% year-on-year, but a recovery is anticipated in the coming quarters [39] - The valuation of white liquor stocks is currently low, with a high dividend yield, making them attractive for investors [39] Group 8: Medical Devices - The medical device sector is poised for recovery, driven by government policies promoting equipment updates, with significant growth in tendering for new devices [46][48] - Major medical device companies are expected to benefit from the increasing demand for imaging and innovative treatment equipment [48] - The domestic market for medical devices is showing signs of improvement, with a notable increase in revenue for leading companies [48]

Group 1: Oil Market Insights - OPEC has decided to halt its production increase plans for Q1 2026, which is interpreted as a neutral to bullish signal for oil prices [1] - OPEC's production increase in December is set at 137,000 barrels per day, but the overall increase since April has not met expectations, with remaining capacity significantly reduced to 3 million barrels per day [1] - The market is expected to remain in a loose supply-demand balance in 2026, with demand growth primarily coming from OECD countries, while non-OPEC+ countries are projected to increase production by 2 million barrels per day in 2025 and 700,000 barrels per day in 2026 [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The company recommends maintaining focus on anti-involution and new materials sectors, with expectations of profit recovery in the petrochemical industry due to stable oil prices and policy catalysts [2] - Specific stock recommendations include leading polyester filament companies such as Xinfengming (603225.SH), Tongkun (601233.SH), and Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493.SZ) [2] - Long-term recommendations include undervalued, high-dividend companies like CNOOC (600938.SH) and PetroChina (601857.SH), as well as companies benefiting from trends in robotics and green plastics, such as Juheshun (605166.SH) and Wankai New Materials (301216.SZ) [2]

Group 1 - International oil prices have declined, leading to a collective pullback in Hong Kong oil stocks, with CNOOC Services down 3.2%, China National Offshore Oil Corporation down 2.5%, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation down 1.3%, and Kunlun Energy down nearly 1% [1] - OPEC has revised its oil market outlook to indicate a surplus, with WTI December crude futures closing down $2.55, a 4.18% drop, at $58.49 per barrel, and Brent January crude futures down $2.45, a 3.76% drop, at $62.71 per barrel [1] - OPEC's latest monthly oil market report shows that in October, the combined daily oil production of OPEC and non-OPEC major oil-producing countries was 43.02 million barrels, a decrease of 73,000 barrels from September [1] Group 2 - The global oil market has shifted from a daily shortfall of 400,000 barrels to a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels, indicating a structural surplus due to unexpected growth in U.S. oil production [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China's natural gas demand growth is expected to slow down to 2% to 3% annually from 2025 to 2027, compared to a 9% compound annual growth rate over the past decade, due to weak industrial demand and the continued economic advantage of coal as a fuel source [1] - Bank of America maintains a "Buy" rating on China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857) as it keeps natural gas average prices relatively stable, and the losses from imported natural gas are narrowing with the decline in oil prices [1] - The target price for PetroChina H-shares has been raised by 12% to HKD 9.5, while the A-shares (601857.SH) are also positively viewed [1] Group 2 - Kunlun Energy (00135) has had its rating downgraded from "Neutral" to "Underperform" due to the fact that industrial customers account for 75% of the company's retail natural gas sales, necessitating price reductions to maintain customer appeal amid stable costs [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities forecasts that China's natural gas demand growth will slow to 2% to 3% annually from 2025 to 2027, compared to a 9% compound annual growth rate over the past decade, due to weak industrial demand and the continued economic advantage of coal as a fuel source [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The slowdown in natural gas demand is attributed to weak industrial demand and the higher levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for gas power generation, making the transition from coal to renewable energy more attractive [1] - The petrochemical industry in mainland China is experiencing limited progress in "anti-involution," with no significant improvement expected in fundamentals before the second quarter of next year [1] Group 2: Company Ratings and Price Targets - China Petroleum (601857) maintains a "Buy" rating due to stable average natural gas prices and reduced losses from imported gas as oil prices decline; target price for PetroChina H-shares raised by 12% to HKD 9.5, and A-shares target price increased by 10% to RMB 11 [1] - Kunlun Energy's rating has been downgraded from "Neutral" to "Underperform" due to its reliance on industrial customers for 75% of retail gas sales, necessitating price reductions to maintain customer appeal; target price decreased by 16% to HKD 7 [1]

Group 1: Industry Outlook - The demand for natural gas in China is expected to slow down to an annual growth rate of 2% to 3% from 2025 to 2027, compared to a compound annual growth rate of 9% over the past decade, due to weak industrial demand and the continued economic advantage of coal as a fuel source [1] - The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for gas-fired power generation remains the highest, making the transition from coal to renewable energy more attractive [1] Group 2: Company Ratings and Price Targets - Bank of America maintains a "Buy" rating on China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857), citing stable average selling prices for natural gas and a reduction in losses from imported natural gas as oil prices decline; the target price for PetroChina H-shares is raised by 12% to HKD 9.5, and for A-shares (601857.SH) by 10% to RMB 11 [1] - The rating for Kunlun Energy (00135) is downgraded from "Neutral" to "Underperform" due to the company's reliance on industrial customers, which account for 75% of its retail natural gas sales; the need to lower prices to maintain customer attraction is highlighted, particularly for price-sensitive clients like glass manufacturers [1] - The target price for Kunlun Energy is reduced by 16% to HKD 7, with limited dividend growth potential as the company has reached a 45% payout guideline and needs to reserve funds for acquisitions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities forecasts that China's natural gas demand growth will slow to 2% to 3% annually from 2025 to 2027, compared to a 9% compound annual growth rate over the past decade, due to weak industrial demand and the continued economic advantage of coal as a fuel source [1] Company Analysis - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857) maintains a "Buy" rating as it keeps natural gas average prices relatively stable, and losses from imported natural gas are narrowing with falling oil prices; target price for PetroChina H-shares raised by 12% to HKD 9.5, and A-shares target price increased by 10% to RMB 11 [1] - Kunlun Energy (00135) rating downgraded from "Neutral" to "Underperform" due to 75% of retail natural gas sales coming from industrial customers, who are price-sensitive; the company needs to lower prices to maintain customer attraction while facing limited dividend growth potential as it has reached a 45% payout guideline and needs to reserve funds for acquisitions; target price reduced by 16% to HKD 7 [1] Industry Insights - The petrochemical sector in mainland China shows limited progress in "anti-involution," with no significant improvement expected in fundamentals before the second quarter of next year [1]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,649 points, up 1.6%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 1.9% to 9,443 points, indicating increased investor sentiment[1] - Total trading volume in Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 214.8 billion, higher than HKD 209.6 billion on the previous Friday, reflecting a positive market outlook[1] - Energy, consumer discretionary, and consumer staples sectors increased by 3.5%, 2.2%, and 2.6% respectively, while utilities only rose by 0.1%[1] Key Stocks Performance - Pop Mart (9992 HK) and CNOOC (883 HK) led the gains, rising by 8.1% and 5.9% respectively[1] - China Hongqiao (1378 HK) and Lenovo Group (992 HK) were the biggest losers, both down by 1.2%[1] Macro Dynamics - Japan's leading indicator for September was 108.0, surpassing August's final value of 107.0 and market expectations of 107.9[3] - In mainland China, new home sales in 30 major cities reached 1.37 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 42.5%, worse than the previous week's 39.2% drop[3] Industry Trends - Hainan's new duty-free shopping policy led to sales of RMB 510 million in the first week, a year-on-year increase of 35%[4] - Major travel-related stocks surged, with China Duty Free Group (1880 HK) up 15.3% and Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) up 6.9%[4] - The healthcare sector saw a 1.5% increase, with BeiGene (6160 HK) reporting a 51% year-on-year revenue increase for its main product, leading to a 41% rise in total revenue[4] Energy Sector Performance - The renewable energy sector showed mixed results, with photovoltaic stocks slightly rising, while wind and thermal power stocks experienced declines of 2.0% to 6.6%[5]