Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - European routes have high capacity in June, and the price of the 06 contract has risen to around $2600/FEU. As MSC has started to revise the European route prices for June, other shipping companies will likely follow suit. Attention should be paid to the final actual prices in June. The 08 contract, being in the traditional peak season, still has price increase expectations, leading to a strong game between expectations and reality. Recently, arbitrage operations are more recommended [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Prices - As of May 20, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 118,206 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 166,866 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1451.20, 1249.00, 1772.20, 2387.90, 1482.10, and 1625.20 respectively [4]. 2. Spot Prices - On May 16, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1154/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was $3091/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was $4069/FEU. On May 19, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1265.30 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1446.36 points [4]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of May 16, 2025, 98 container ships had been delivered, with a total capacity of 762,700 TEU. Among them, 31 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 467,300 TEU, and 3 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 70,872 TEU [5]. - The monthly average weekly capacity in June was about 280,000 TEU. The weekly capacities in WEEK23/24/25/26/27 were 296,200/302,800/282,300/226,000/268,200 TEU, with an average of 277,000 TEU, a year - on - year increase of over 20%. The monthly average weekly capacity in July was 259,000 TEU. The average weekly capacity on the Shanghai - US East and West routes in June was 320,500 TEU, while in May it was 243,400 TEU, showing a rapid recovery [2]. 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitically, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israel would fully control the Gaza Strip, and the Israeli Air Force attacked over 160 targets in the Gaza Strip in the past day [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - In May, more than 10 ships on the US routes were transferred to European routes, increasing the supply - side pressure on European routes in May. Most shipping companies continuously revised down their prices in May. The price of the OA Alliance in May dropped to around $1700/FEU, the price of YML in the PA Alliance in May was $1500/FEU, and the price of Maersk in WEEK22 was over $1600/FEU [3].

2025年5月19日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 达飞传出复航消息，MSK6月运价不及预期，各合约或将回调，符合日报预期，已建议冲高止盈 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 5月12日 | 5月16日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1302.62点，较上期下跌5.5% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1014.55点，较上期上涨6.53% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1455.31点，较上期上涨10.2% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）750.91点，较上期下跌0.78% | | 5月16日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1813.08点，较上期上涨23.18% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1479.39点，较上期下跌134.22点 | 5月16日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1154USD/TEU, 较上期下跌0.60% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1104.88点，较上期下跌0.1% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Multiple liner companies have announced a price increase for early June, leading to a significant rise in the near - month contracts of US - bound shipping rates, which is in line with the daily report's expectations. It is recommended to take profits when the price reaches a high point. Attention should be paid to the capacity allocation of US - bound routes within 90 days and the feedback of terminal demand under the easing of tariff policies [2][4]. 3. Summary by Content a. Shipping Rate Index - On May 12, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1302.62 points, a 5.5% decrease from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1455.31 points, a 10.2% increase from the previous period. - On May 9, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 952.32 points, a 2.37% increase from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 756.79 points, a 0.94% decrease from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1471.92 points, a 0.41% decrease from the previous period. - On May 9, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1345.17 points, a decrease of 4.24 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1161 USD/TEU, a 3.3% decrease from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route price was 2347 USD/FEU, a 3.3% increase from the previous period. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1106.38 points, a 1.3% decrease from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1445.24 points, a 3.5% decrease from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 857.65 points, a 2.4% increase from the previous period [2]. b. PMI Data - In March, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.5%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous month; the Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 51.2, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, reaching a four - month high. - In April, the preliminary value of the Eurozone's Manufacturing PMI was 48.7 (expected 47.5), the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 49.7 (expected 50.5), and the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9). The Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9). - In April, the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 50.7 (expected 49.1, final value in March 50.2), the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 51.4 (expected 52.8, final value in March 54.4), and the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, final value in March 53.5) [2][3]. c. Trade and Policy - Tariffs have become a means of trade negotiation, adding significant uncertainty to future shipping trends. Although the easing of the China - US trade war may lead to a rush of shipments within 90 days, which is beneficial for the digestion of US - bound shipping capacity, price wars among shipping alliances cannot be avoided. - On May 14, China and the US reached multiple positive consensuses in their Geneva economic and trade talks, agreeing to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. The US promised to cancel 91% of tariffs and suspend 24% of reciprocal tariffs, and China also cancelled 91% of counter - tariffs and suspended 24% of counter - tariffs, with both sides retaining 10% of tariffs. - Starting from June 1, 2025, multiple liner companies announced a new round of freight rate increases for major routes from the Far East to Europe [4]. d. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Due to the volatile external policies in the short term, it is recommended to focus on medium - and long - term contracts. - Arbitrage strategy: Given the impact of tariffs, attention can be paid to the reverse - spread structure, but the window period is short and the fluctuations are large. - Long - term strategy: Risk - preferring investors can try to go long with a light position when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points (it has already achieved a profit margin of over 400 points) and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points (it has already achieved a profit margin of over 300 points), and it is recommended to take profits when the price reaches a high point [4]. e. Contract Information - On May 15, the closing price of the main contract 2506 was 1787.3, with a gain of 8.72%, a trading volume of 108,800 lots, and an open interest of 38,600 lots, an increase of 61 lots from the previous day. - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is 16%, and for the 2508 contract, it is 19%. - The company's margin requirements are 26% for contracts 2506 - 2604 and 29% for the 2508 contract. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Main shipping companies have issued price increase notices for June, and the 06 contract should focus on the final implementation of price increases, while the 08 contract faces a game between weak reality and price increase expectations. Given the high capacity in June, it is recommended to conduct arbitrage operations recently [3][4] - The US tariff policy adjustment has led to significant changes in the US routes. Some shipping capacity has overflowed to European routes, but the US routes' capacity has rebounded in June, which may ease the pressure on European routes [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Prices - As of May 15, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European route futures was 123,385 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 248,496 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1449.00, 1273.20, 1787.30, 2359.30, 1464.70, and 1611.20 respectively [4][5] Spot Prices - On May 9, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1161.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2347.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3335.00 US dollars/FEU. On May 12, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1302.62 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1455.31 points [5] Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of May 1, 2025, 93 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 724,600 TEU. Among them, 30 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total of 451,300 TEU, and 3 ships of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total of 70,872 TEU [5] - In June, the capacity on the European routes is relatively high, and the monthly average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - US East and West routes has increased significantly compared to May. The average weekly capacity in June is about 280,000 TEU, and the average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - US East and West routes in June is 294,000 TEU, compared with 243,400 TEU in May [2] Supply Chain - Geopolitically, Hamas is in direct talks with the US to reach an agreement to end the Gaza conflict. If a permanent cease - fire is achieved, Hamas can hand over control of the Gaza Strip [1] Demand and European Economy - Not elaborated in detail in the content, but factors such as the US tariff policy adjustment and the situation of the Gaza conflict may have an impact on demand and the European economy [1][3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - HPL and MSC have issued price increase notices for June. The 06 contract should focus on the final implementation of the price increase, while the 08 contract faces a game between weak reality and price increase expectations. Given the high capacity in June, attention should be paid to the actual price implementation in June. Recently, arbitrage operations are more recommended [1][3][4] - The US tariff policy adjustment has led to significant changes in the US route. Some ship capacity has overflowed to the European route, but the supply - demand mismatch opportunity in the US route in the short - term may ease the pressure on the European route. The price of the US route has risen significantly, which is beneficial to the European route [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different quotes for May and June. For example, Gemini Cooperation's 22 - week shipping schedule (last week of May) is quoted at 932/1571; HPL's May shipping schedule is quoted at 1100/1700, and the June shipping schedule is quoted at 1900/3200 [1] - Price increase announcements: MSC and HPL have announced price increases for the Far East - Europe route in June. MSC's price is 1920/3200 (June 1 - 14), and HPL's price is 1900/3200 (after June 1) [1] 3.2 Geopolitical and Policy Factors - Geopolitical: On May 14 local time, the Israeli negotiation delegation participated in talks in Doha regarding a cease - fire, the release of detainees, and the end of the Gaza conflict. Hamas participated indirectly [2] - Policy: On May 12, China and the US issued a joint statement. The US adjusted its tariffs on China to 20% (fentanyl) + 10% (new benchmark), and the suspension of tariffs will end in 90 days after April 2. China also made corresponding adjustments [3][4] 3.3 Shipping Capacity Analysis - May capacity: The capacity in May has gradually increased. The weekly capacities in WEEK20/21/22 are 251,600/262,000/296,000 TEU respectively, with an average weekly capacity of about 280,000 - 290,000 TEU, a year - on - year increase of more than 20% in 2024 [2] - June capacity: The average weekly capacity in June is about 280,000 TEU. A total of 11 US - bound ships have been transferred to the European route, with a total capacity of 128,000 TEU, mostly in May. The average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - to - US East and West routes in June is 285,100 TEU, compared with 243,400 TEU in May [2] 3.4 Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Futures market: As of May 14, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route is 119,581.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 263,372.00 lots. Different contracts have different closing prices. For example, the closing price of the EC2602 contract is 1518.30 [5] - Spot market: On May 9, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1161.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2347.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3335.00 US dollars/FEU. On May 12, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1302.62 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1455.31 points [5] 3.5 Strategy - Unilateral: The main contract fluctuates - Arbitrage: Go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract; go long on the 08 contract and short on the 06 contract [6]

Group 1 - The recent US-China Geneva trade negotiations have led to significant progress, with both countries reducing tariff rates, resulting in a rapid response from the global shipping and logistics market [1] - There is a surge in demand for shipping services on US routes, with reports of a "rush for shipments" and "cabin space" as shipping rates have dramatically increased, with East Coast rates nearing $7000 in June [1][2] - Shipping companies have announced substantial rate hikes, with various carriers increasing fees for container shipments to the US, indicating a potential super peak season for shipping [1][2] Group 2 - Following the announcement of a 145% tariff increase by the US on China, there has been a significant withdrawal of shipping capacity from US routes, with a 40% reduction noted, complicating the return of capacity to these routes [2] - The strong demand for inventory replenishment in the US, coupled with a 90-day tariff exemption period, is expected to drive a surge in Chinese exports, with analysts predicting a "red sea moment" for shipping rates [2] - Companies in the shipping and logistics sector, such as COSCO, HMM, and Evergreen, are likely to benefit from the current market dynamics, as shipping rates are expected to remain elevated into the second half of the year [2][3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - EC2506 had a yesterday's charge price of 1465.2, a change of -0.07%, a basis of -162.6, a yesterday's trading volume of 81997, a yesterday's open interest of 36838, and an open interest change of -561[2] - EC2508 had a yesterday's charge price of 1896.0, a change of 5.69%, a basis of -593.4, a yesterday's trading volume of ୧୧୦୧୫, a yesterday's open interest of 40901, and an open interest change of 1438[2] - EC2510 had a yesterday's charge price of 1410.3, a change of -4.81%, a basis of -107.7, a yesterday's trading volume of 25388, a yesterday's open interest of 19695, and an open interest change of 1875[2] - EC2512 had a yesterday's charge price of 1603.0, a change of -4.75%, a basis of -300.4, a yesterday's trading volume of 4425, a yesterday's open interest of 4438, and an open interest change of -113[2] - EC2602 had a yesterday's charge price of 1414.5, a change of -5.71%, a basis of -111.9, a yesterday's trading volume of 2517, a yesterday's open interest of 2953, and an open interest change of 9[2] - EC2604 had a yesterday's charge price of 1269.2, a change of -6.68%, a basis of 33.4, a yesterday's trading volume of 2609, a yesterday's open interest of 2096, and an open interest change of 578[2] Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2506 - 2508: The previous day's month - to - month spread was -279.0, the previous two days' was -430.8, the previous three days' was -327.8, and the differences were -103.0 and -159.4[2] - EC2508 - 2510: The previous day's month - to - month spread was 485.7, the previous two days' was 268.0, the previous three days' was 214.0, and the differences were 173.3 and 312.4[2] - EC2506 - 2510: The previous day's month - to - month spread was 54.9, the previous two days' was -11.0, the previous three days' was 54.6, and the differences were 70.3 and -15.4[2] - EC2510 - 2512: The previous day's month - to - month spread was -192.7, the previous two days' was -185.0, the previous three days' was -19.9, and the differences were 8.7 and -201.4[2] - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's month - to - month spread was 163.8, the previous two days' was 188.5, the previous three days' was 182.8, and the differences were 5.7 and 19.2[2] Shipping Indexes - CCFI (European Line) on May 9, 2025, was 1445.24 points, down from 1499.5 points, a decrease of -0.94%[2] - NCFI (European Line) had a -0.94% change[2] - FBX11 had a -2.34% change[2] - WCI had a -4.76% change[2] - SCEI on May 9, 2025, was $1161/TEU, compared to the previous value of $1260/TEU[2] - XSI - C (European Line) on May 9, 2025, was $2033/FEU, up 0.05% from the previous value, and down -1.17% compared to an earlier period[2] - TCI (European Line) on May 9, 2025, was 756.79 points, down -4.04% from the previous value; on May 13, 2025, it was 594.23 points, with no change from the previous value and a -0.85% change compared to an earlier period[2] Shipping News and Quotes - On May 12, 2025, the US and China adjusted tariffs. The US - China tariff rate dropped from 145% to 30%, the China - US tariff rate dropped from 125% to 10%, and 24% of the reciprocal tariffs were exempted for 90 days. The US also adjusted the ad - valorem tariff rate for small packages under $800 from 120% to 54% and maintained the $100 per - piece specific tariff for small postal items, canceling the planned increase to $200 on June 1[2] - On May 13, 2025, HPL adjusted its May announced price increase from $3000 to $3200. For June, HPL's announced price increase reached $3200, ONE's reached $2437, and CMA's reached $2995[2] - In the first half of May, shipping companies initially mostly continued the previous prices, then the quotes gradually decreased, with week 18/19 ending at 1350 and 1300 points respectively. In the second half of May, the quotes continued to decline, with week 20 ending at 1200 - 1250 points, and week 21 continuing the price, with the current average converted to the futures price being 1230 points[2] Middle East Situation - On May 12, 2025, the Houthi rebels claimed to have used missiles to attack an Israeli airport and hit the target accurately[3] - On May 13, 2025, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israel would fully commit to advancing into the Gaza Strip in the coming days[3]

2025 年 5 月 14 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 集运指数（欧线）：短期偏强，6-8 反套、10-12 反套持有 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2506 | | 1,465.2 | 5.79% | 90,746 | 36,838 | -561 | 2.46 | | 2.19 | | | EC2508 | | 1,896.0 | 12.38% | 66,058 | 40,901 | 1,438 | 1.62 | | 1.21 | | | EC2510 | | 1,410.3 | 1.34% | 25,388 | 19,6 ...

【5 月欧线运价变动趋稳，EC 合约态势受关注】5 月，欧线运价变动渐趋平稳，EC 合约延续弱势。06 合约周四跌至 1220 点后有所反弹，周五 EC 合约集体收跌。主力合约 EC2506 收于 1249.8 点，跌幅 2.59%，持仓量减少 1255 手至 36887 手。 EC2508 收于 1528.8 点，跌幅 1.77%，持仓量增加 75 手至 36104 手。EC2510 收于 1260.8 点，跌幅 0.97%，EC2512 收于 1445.8 点，跌幅 0.88%。 5 月 9 盘后发布 的 SCFI 上海-欧洲基本港为 1161 美元/TEU，较上期下跌 39 美元，跌幅 3.24%。 马士基第 21 周报价沿 用 1450 美元/FEU，赫伯罗特 5 月中旬报价 2100 美元/FEU。MSC2110 美元/FEU，达飞降 100 美元至 2145 美元/FEU，ONE 降 200 美元至 1637 美元/FEU，长荣 2060 美元/FEU，COSCO 线上报价维持 3625 美元/FEU，OOCL 报价维持在 1700 - 1800 美元附近，HMM1704 美元/FEU。达飞 5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The US tariff - adding policy has significantly changed the US - bound shipping routes. Some shipping capacity from the US - bound routes has overflowed to the European and Mediterranean routes. If more ships from the US - bound routes are diverted to the European routes, the freight rates of the European routes will face pressure. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' capacity adjustment. [4] - It is necessary to closely monitor the possibility of Sino - US negotiations. If the two sides negotiate and reduce some export tariffs on Chinese goods, there may be an opportunity for supply - demand mismatch on the US routes, which will have a positive impact on the European routes. Due to the frequent adjustment of tariff policies and high uncertainty, arbitrage is recommended for recent operations. [4] - The 06 contract still faces a weak reality, while the 08 contract faces a game between weak reality and price - increase expectations. If the US - bound cargo volume remains low, more ships may be diverted from the US - bound routes to the European routes in June. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of May 7, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the European container shipping index futures was 101,044.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 108,379.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1291.40, 1182.60, 1288.20, 1559.60, 1287.90, and 1460.70 respectively. [5] 2. Spot Price - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different price quotes for different weeks and months. For example, Maersk's Week 20 price is 974/1647, Week 21 is 885/1480; HPL's May shipment price is 1100/1700, and June is 1800/3000. [1] - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on April 30 was 1200.00 US dollars/TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 2272.00 US dollars/FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 3283.00 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on May 5 was 1379.07 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1320.69 points. [5] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In May, the shipping capacity was gradually revised upwards. The weekly capacities in Week 20/21/22 were 251,600/262,000/296,000 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in May was about 280,000 - 290,000 TEU, a year - on - year increase of more than 20% in 2024. The average weekly capacity in June was about 280,000 TEU. [2] - A total of 11 ships on the US - bound routes were diverted to the European routes, with a total capacity of 128,000 TEU, mostly in May. If the US - bound cargo volume remains low, more ships may be diverted in June. [2] - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of May 1, 2025, 93 container ships had been delivered, with a total capacity of 724,600 TEU. Among them, 30 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total of 451,300 TEU; 3 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total of 70,872 TEU. [5] 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical aspect: Yemeni Houthi officials stated that the cease - fire agreement did not include any direct talks with US officials. The US - Houthi cease - fire agreement mediated by Oman aimed to stop attacks on US ships. [2] 5. Demand and European Economy - The US tariff - adding policy has affected the shipping market. If Sino - US negotiations reduce some export tariffs on Chinese goods, there may be an opportunity for supply - demand mismatch on the US routes, which will have an impact on the European routes. [4]