2025年03月02日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 非银金融 核心观点: 证券: 市场层面,本周,证券板块下跌 3.09%、跑输沪深 300 指数 0.87pct,跑输上证综 指数 1.37pct。当前券商板块 PB 估值为 1.51 倍，位于 2020 年 50 分位点附近。 本周,中证协发布了 2024 年度证券公司债券承销业务专项统计数据,除绿色债券 外,多个债券承销规模与 2023 年相比显著增长。具体来看,148 只绿色债券承销 总额达 1674.05 亿元,规模与 2023 年同比减少 8.45%。539 只科技创新债券承销 金额合计 613.86亿元,规模同比增长 68.48%。地方政府债券方面,合计中标金额 6870.78 亿元,中标金额同比增长 47.77%,合计中标地区 34 个, 2024 年度作为 "一带一路"债券主承销商的证券公司共22家，承销19只债券，合计金额233.55 亿元,承销规模同比增长 194.48%。24 只低碳转型债券的承销规模达 267.9 亿 元,规模同比增长 101.91%。从榜单排名来看,头部券商位居多项榜单排名榜 首,部分特色中小券商表现亮眼,在部分 ...

耐心等待 ——证券行业周报 投资摘要： 每周一谈 中国人民银行 全国工商联 金融监管总局 中国证监会 国家外汇局联合召开金 融支持民营企业高质量发展座谈会 会议要求，要实施好适度宽松的货币政策， 发挥好结构性货币政策工具作用，强化监管引领，引导金融机构"一视同仁"对 待各类所有制企业，增加对民营和小微企业信贷投放。执行好金融支持民营经济 25 条举措，健全民营中小企业增信制度，加快出台规范供应链金融业务政策文 件。强化债券市场制度建设和产品创新，持续发挥"第二支箭"的撬动引领作用。 抓好"科创板八条""服务现代化产业体系十六条""并购六条"等政策落实落地， 支持民营企业通过资本市场发展壮大。金融机构要强化金融服务能力建设，进一 步畅通民营企业股、债、贷等多元化融资渠道，加大各类金融资源要素投入，将 民营企业金融服务做实、做深、做精。 市场回顾： 上周（2.24-2.28）沪深 300 指数的涨跌幅为-2.22%，申万二级行业指数证券行 业涨跌幅为-3.09%。板块内个股 4 家上涨， 1 家停牌，45 家下跌。 证券板块个股周度表现： 股价涨跌幅前五名为：中国银河、中金公司、首创证券、西部证券、海通证券。 股 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming National Two Sessions in 2025 are expected to bring significant opportunities in the capital market, with analysts expressing optimism about China's asset attractiveness and focusing on economic growth targets, fiscal policy, and monetary policy [1] Macroeconomic Focus - Economic Growth: Most institutions predict a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, with a weighted average growth target calculated at 5.3% based on local targets [2] - Inflation Target: CPI targets are expected to be lowered to around 2% for 2025, down from previous years' targets of approximately 3% [3] Fiscal Policy Focus - Deficit Rate: Analysts anticipate an increase in the deficit rate to around 4% for 2025, with new special bond issuance expected to rise to approximately 4.2 to 4.5 trillion yuan [3] - Spending Direction: Fiscal policy is expected to focus on promoting consumption and driving technological innovation, with measures such as supporting trade-in programs to boost consumer spending [4] Monetary Policy Focus - Monetary Policy Stance: The prevailing view is that monetary policy will maintain a "moderately loose" stance, with potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, but these actions may be delayed until after the Two Sessions [5][6] Capital Market Investment Opportunities - Technology Sector: The technology growth sector, particularly around AI and robotics, is expected to remain a hotspot, with increasing attractiveness of Chinese AI assets [6] - Consumer Sector: With enhanced fiscal policy efforts, consumer growth is anticipated to accelerate, supported by government measures like vehicle purchase subsidies [7] - Capital Market Reforms: The Two Sessions may lead to further improvements in the capital market's "1+N" institutional framework, promoting mergers and acquisitions and fostering a healthy market environment [8]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the new regulations aims to standardize the service fees charged by underwriting institutions, enhance the quality of listed companies, and protect investors' rights, thereby promoting the healthy and stable development of the capital market [1][2]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The new regulations, effective from February 15, 2023, prohibit the linkage of underwriting fees to the success of stock issuance and the incremental charging of fees based on issuance scale [1][2]. - Under the new model, underwriting fees will be based on fixed rates and a minimum "guaranteed" amount, with payments made in stages according to project progress [1][2]. Impact on Underwriting Institutions - The regulations are expected to enhance the independence of underwriting institutions, encouraging them to fulfill their role as gatekeepers and support high-quality companies in going public [2][4]. - The new fee structure is designed to prevent conflicts of interest and promote a more objective and independent stance from underwriting institutions [4]. Practical Implementation - As of February 28, 2023, three companies—Hanshu Technology, Hongjing Optoelectronics, and Xinya Cable—have disclosed their underwriting fees in accordance with the new regulations, indicating a shift towards stage-based payments [2][3]. - For instance, Hanshu Technology has set its underwriting fee at 8% of the total funds raised, with a minimum fee of 80 million yuan, while Hongjing Optoelectronics has a fixed underwriting fee of 1.6038 million yuan plus 8% of the total funds raised [3]. Future Outlook - The regulations are anticipated to create a new ecosystem benefiting intermediaries, listed companies, and investors, focusing on professional services and good reputation as the basis for compensation [4]. - The changes may lead to a shift in the competitive landscape of the underwriting industry, with smaller firms potentially facing challenges, while larger firms may gain a competitive advantage [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing frequency of judicial auctions and transfers of shares held by minority shareholders in small and medium-sized securities firms, driven by liquidity pressures and diminishing returns from these firms [1][8]. Summary by Sections Judicial Auctions of Shares - Recently, over 10 million shares of Hualong Securities were put up for judicial auction with a starting price of 16.27 million yuan, but the auction ended without any bids [1]. - Newzhou Group's 11.62 million shares in Hualong Securities also went unsold, with a market value of 23.25 million yuan and a starting price of 16.27 million yuan [3]. - The shares were auctioned due to Newzhou Group's failure to fulfill a court order to pay 8.40 million yuan, leading to the seizure of their shares [3]. Share Pledges and Freezes - As of December 20, 2022, 6.15% of Hualong Securities' total shares were pledged, and 3.35% were frozen, totaling 8.37% [4]. - The affected shareholders are all minority shareholders with less than 5% ownership, indicating that these issues do not significantly impact the control stability of Hualong Securities [4]. Broader Industry Trends - The trend of shares being put up for judicial auction or transfer is not isolated to Hualong Securities; other small and medium-sized securities firms are experiencing similar issues due to shareholder liquidity pressures and declining license values [8]. - For instance, Hongta Securities had 1.93 million shares planned for auction, and Guodu Securities is facing a similar situation with 30 million shares set for auction due to shareholder disputes [9]. Major Shareholder Actions - Jinlong Co. announced plans to transfer its 67.78% stake in Zhongshan Securities to improve cash flow and facilitate business transformation [9]. - Jinlong Co. also had 62.3 million shares up for judicial auction, with a total starting price exceeding 700 million yuan, although some shares were successfully bid on [10]. IPO Market Conditions - The IPO market has tightened significantly since February 2024, with no small securities firms making progress in their IPO applications [6].

制图：佘诗婕 并购交易数量翻倍 据统计，2024年6月19日"科创板八条"发布以来，科创板上市公司共推出并购交易近80单，数量增长1倍以上， 且均为产业并购，其中重大现金收购及发 股类交易的数量超过2019-2023年5年的总和，已出现多起"发股+定向可转债+现金"组合支付、差异化对价等创新性案例，以及收购境外上市公司、收购未 盈利资产、收购拟上市企业等交易。 2024年9月24日"并购六条"发布以来， 沪市新增各类资产交易逾460单，其中53单系重大资产重组及发行股份购买资产交易，交易单数较"并购六条"发布 前5个月增长近五成，超八成资产购买交易围绕新质生产力开展。 星标 ★ IPO日报 精彩文章第一时间推送 2月28日，上交所发布，日前，上海市委金融办、上海证监局和上海证券交易所再次联合举办沪市上市公司并购重组交流座谈会，20余家证券公 司、股权投资机构、商业银行、会计师事务所、律师事务所等市场机构参会。 本次座谈会旨在交流去年下半年以来沪市并购重组市场情况和典型案例，听取市场意见建议，凝聚市场共识，进一步推动"并购六条""科创板八条"和《上 海市支持上市公司并购重组行动方案（2025-2027年）》（以 ...

2月26日晚，中金公司、中国银河两家券商就当日市场并购传闻进行了澄清，均表示并未得到任何来自 政府部门、监管机构或公司股东有关上述传闻的书面或口头的信息。当日尾盘，两家上市券商A股、H 股均有明显拉升。 中金公司在公告中表示，关注到市场传闻称公司将与中国银河证券股份有限公司进行合并，现予以澄清 说明。经核实，公司未得到任何来自政府部门、监管机构或公司股东有关上述传闻的书面或口头的信 息。控股股东不存在筹划上述传闻所称事项或其他涉及公司的应披露而未披露的重大事项。 中国银河也公告称，关注到有市场传闻称公司将与中金公司进行合并，现予以澄清说明。截至本公告披 露日，公司未得到任何来自于政府部门、监管机构或公司控股股东、实际控制人有关上述传闻的书面或 口头的信息。 当日盘中，中金公司、中国银河的A股股价在尾盘急速拉升，双双涨停；两家公司的港股股价也一度涨 超18%。在相关市场传闻的刺激下，2月26日，A股券商板块尾盘异动明显，板块指数于尾盘快速拉 升，收盘时涨幅近3%。截至收盘，全部49只券商股悉数收红，除中金公司、中国银河涨停外，西部证 券上涨超8%，信达证券上涨超5%，35只券商股涨幅超过2%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent rumors regarding the merger between China International Capital Corporation (CICC) and China Galaxy Securities have stirred market sentiments, leading to significant stock price increases for both companies, but both firms have quickly issued clarifications denying any such plans [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Responses - On February 26, both CICC and China Galaxy experienced stock price surges, with CICC's A-shares hitting the daily limit and its H-shares rising over 19%, while China Galaxy's A-shares also reached the limit and its H-shares increased by 17.11% [1][2] - CICC announced that it had confirmed with its controlling shareholder, Central Huijin, that there were no plans for a merger or any undisclosed significant matters [2][3] - China Galaxy similarly clarified that it had not received any information regarding the merger from government departments or its controlling shareholders [2][3] Group 2: Market Context - The securities industry is currently experiencing a wave of mergers and acquisitions, with notable examples including the rapid completion of the merger between Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities, and the acquisition of Guodu Securities by Zheshang Securities [3][4] - Following the stock price movements of CICC and China Galaxy, several other brokerage stocks also saw significant increases, indicating a broader market reaction to the merger rumors [3][4] Group 3: Central Huijin's Role - The rumors surrounding the merger are partly attributed to the increasing number of brokerages under Central Huijin, which directly holds 40.11% of CICC and indirectly holds 47.43% of China Galaxy [5][6] - Analysts suggest that the recent transfer of shares from state-owned asset management companies to Central Huijin has opened up possibilities for further consolidation among brokerages [5][6] Group 4: Financial Comparisons - As of the third quarter of 2024, China Galaxy outperformed CICC in key financial metrics, with total assets of 747.918 billion yuan and net profit of 6.964 billion yuan, while CICC reported total assets of 655.38 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.858 billion yuan [6][7] - The combined financial strength of CICC and China Galaxy, if merged, would significantly narrow the gap with leading firms like CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan [6][7] Group 5: Business Complementarity - Market expectations for a merger are high due to the complementary nature of the two firms' businesses, with CICC excelling in investment banking and China Galaxy having a strong foothold in wealth management [7] - Both companies have been actively enhancing their capabilities, with China Galaxy expanding its investment banking presence in Southeast Asia and CICC increasing its offerings in retail financial products [7]

https://m.21jingji.com/subscribe/author?type=3&aid=3207 作 者丨孙永乐 杨万林 编 辑丨陈思颖 尹华禄 金珊 2月2 6日，临近A股收盘，中央汇金旗下中金公司和中国银河双双涨停。 港股方面，中国银河、中金公司也一度涨超1 9%，截至收盘，中国银河涨1 7 . 11%，中金公司涨1 9 . 0 9%。 消息面上，据券商中国报道，分析人士认为，汇金系券商异动与一则传闻有关。市场传出，中金公司将与同业中国银河合并，这笔交易将缔造 出一家资产规模达1 9 3 0亿美元的券商巨头。此前市场曾多次曝出两大券商合并传闻，但均被公司否认。 对此，南财快讯记者向中金公司方面进行了求证，但未获得回复。此外，还多次致电银河证券投资者热线，但未获接通。 机构表示，国内券商过去主要通过内生增长逐渐扩大规模，未来在监管的指引下，业内的并购可能会增多，行业内的资源整合或将成为券商快 速提升规模与综合实力的又一重要方式。大型券商通过并购进一步补齐短板，巩固优势，中小券商通过外延并购有望弯道超车，快速做大，实 现规模效应和业务互补。 东吴证券指出，政策引导叠加内生驱动之下，当前国联+民生 ...

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of RMB 671.57 million, a decrease of 2.59% compared to the previous year[4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company reached RMB 139.33 million, an increase of 19.52% year-on-year, driven by significant growth in investment income, brokerage fees, and net interest income[5] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was RMB 137.46 million, up 18.84% from the previous year[4] - Basic earnings per share rose to RMB 0.31, marking a 19.23% increase compared to the previous year[4] Assets and Equity - The company's total assets at the end of 2024 were RMB 961.76 billion, a slight decrease of 0.05% from the beginning of the period[5] - Shareholders' equity attributable to the listed company increased to RMB 288.91 billion, reflecting a growth of 3.39% from the start of the year[5] Profitability Metrics - The weighted average return on net assets improved to 4.90%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points[4] - The company's net interest income and brokerage business fees showed substantial growth compared to the previous year, contributing to overall profitability[5] Performance Forecasts - The company did not disclose any performance forecasts prior to this earnings announcement[6] - No significant differences were noted between the current performance and previous expectations, as no prior estimates were provided[6]