证券研究报告 | 2025年12月02日 港股 12 月投资策略 优于大市 11 月的回调为 2026 年赢得确定空间 美国：12 月份降息预期飙至近 90%。11 月，当美联储还试图用缺乏数据的 理由来给降息预期降温时，PMI、裁员（挑战者）、消费、褐皮书等多 重数据显示当下美国经济已经面临较大的压力，故而以纽约联储主席为 代表的降息主张迅速占据上风。 2026 年早些时候，预计股票市场可能会较为温和，不会有大幅下跌的风险， 理由是美联储的托底，但实际时薪的下行依然会导致经济表现较弱。美元指 数将进一步走弱，这将利于新兴市场的股票表现。 A 股：反内卷与效率进步是看点。11 月的经济数据受到房地产、服务业的 下行而表现偏弱。对于 PPI 恢复的预期很大程度上源自反内卷，亏损企 业亏损额同比继续降低就是比较积极的信号。 此外，劳动生产率已经在 AI 的驱动下改善，软件行业表现较为显著。 在过去的 5 年中，A 股软件行业人均效率持续提升，从人均收入 75 万元 提升至 87 万元，市场已经在悄然定价这种转变。考虑到大模型正在快 速迭代，AI 对企业效率的提升可能会在 2026 年变得更加广泛和深入。 港股：短 ...

Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile Holdings Limited reported strong sales growth in November, with a 24% year-on-year increase in passenger car sales, continuing a trend of growth for nine consecutive months [1]. Sales Performance - In November, Geely's passenger car sales reached 310,428 units, marking a 24% year-on-year increase [1]. - Cumulative sales for the first 11 months of the year reached 2,787,750 units, a 42% increase year-on-year, achieving 93% of the annual sales target [1]. - The company reported third-quarter revenue of 89.2 billion yuan, up 27% year-on-year, and a core net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.96 billion yuan, a 19% increase [1]. New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) - In November, NEV sales (including Geely, Lynk & Co, and Zeekr brands) reached 187,798 units, a 53% year-on-year increase, with a monthly NEV penetration rate of 60.5% [1]. - Cumulative NEV sales for the first 11 months reached 1,533,503 units, a 97% increase year-on-year [1]. Brand Performance - The Galaxy brand sold 132,652 units in November, a 76% year-on-year increase, with cumulative sales of 1.135 million units for the first 11 months, up 167% [1]. - The Zeekr brand sold 28,843 units in November, a 35% month-on-month increase, with an average selling price of 538,000 yuan [4]. - Lynk & Co sold 35,059 units in November, a 7% year-on-year increase, with 75% of sales coming from NEV models [6]. Export and Global Expansion - Geely's overseas exports in November reached 42,091 units, a 22% year-on-year increase, with nearly 380,000 units exported in the first 11 months [8]. - In Latin America, Geely launched the Star Wish in Brazil and signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Renault Group to invest approximately 5.1 billion yuan for local NEV production [8]. - Geely entered the South African market with plans to establish a dealer network and expand into Kazakhstan and Italy [8]. Product Development - The company is set to enhance its product structure and technical safety assurance system with the launch of multiple new models and the opening of a global safety center with an investment exceeding 2 billion yuan [9].

"反向代工"现象背后，是供给侧、需求侧发生的质变，也是中国车企形成可输出价值的体现。从供给侧 看，近年来，中国车企在汽车电动化核心技术领域实现了从起跑到领跑的跨越，"换道超车"已见成效。以动 力电池为例，中国企业在技术研发和产品品类上不断创新，实现了安全性、能量密度、循环寿命、快充等性 能的持续提升。这些在电动化、智能化等方面的技术进步与推广成效，以及由此形成的智慧经验与实力积 累，成为中国车企输出价值的坚实底气。 在需求侧，部分海外品牌车企由于种种原因存在产能闲置的情况。据报道，此次将为广汽代工的麦格纳 格拉茨工厂，曾是欧洲豪华品牌的重要代工工厂，但近年来却出现了订单逐渐减少、产能利用率持续下降的 状况，而产能闲置也造成企业运营成本的增加。雷诺巴西工厂、通用沈阳北盛工厂不同程度地面临类似问 题。中国车企"反向代工"带来新订单，不仅有助于合作方应对产能闲置、缓解成本压力，也将为当地新能源 汽车市场和经济发展注入新的活力。这一供需结构的再匹配，反映出中国车企通过自主创新实现技术输出与 合作主导，进而推动从"重资产"到"轻输出"的战略升级。 汽车代工领域，出现新风向。 日前，广汽集团与全球知名汽车代工厂商麦格纳联 ...

Core Insights - The automotive industry in mainland China is experiencing a significant divergence in sales performance as major car manufacturers report their November sales figures, with the impact of the "two new" policies fading and sales growth slowing down or even declining [1][2][3] Group 1: Sales Performance - Geely Automobile reported November sales of 310,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 24% and a month-on-month increase of 1%, with a cumulative total of 2.79 million units for the first eleven months, representing a 42% year-on-year increase [1] - Leap Motor achieved over 70,000 units in November, maintaining a year-on-year growth of 75%, with a cumulative delivery of 536,000 units for the first eleven months, up 113% year-on-year [2] - Xiaomi Automobile delivered over 40,000 units in November, maintaining this level for three consecutive months, and is expected to exceed its annual target of 350,000 units by the third week of December [3] Group 2: New Energy Vehicles - Geely's new energy vehicle sales reached 188,000 units in November, a year-on-year increase of 53%, with a penetration rate exceeding 60% [1] - Leap Motor's B and C series vehicles are seeing increased deliveries, with the A10 model recently unveiled at the Guangzhou International Auto Show [2] - The "Five Realms" product matrix of Chery Automobile has been completed, indicating strong future performance potential [2] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Ideal Auto's November deliveries were 33,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 32%, with cumulative deliveries for the first eleven months at 362,000 units, down 18% year-on-year [3] - NIO's November sales were 36,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 76%, but cumulative deliveries for the first eleven months were only 278,000 units, indicating challenges in meeting year-end targets [3] - The overall industry is facing a challenging environment with regulatory pressures and the withdrawal of subsidies, limiting the potential for significant changes in market structure in December [3]

Core Insights - The November sales report reveals significant differentiation among automotive companies, with several brands achieving record deliveries and growth rates. Group 1: Major Players' Performance - Homologous Intelligent Mobility achieved a historical monthly delivery high of 81,900 units in November, an increase of 40,000 units year-on-year, with a 20% month-on-month growth [1][5][7] - Leap Motor continued to break monthly sales records, delivering 70,300 units in November, representing a year-on-year growth of over 75% and maintaining growth for nine consecutive months [1][9] - Xiaomi delivered over 40,000 units for the third consecutive month, with expectations to exceed 400,000 units for the entire year [1][15][18] - The "New Forces" (Xiaopeng, NIO, and Li Auto) all delivered over 30,000 units in November, with Xiaopeng at 36,728 units, NIO at 36,300 units, and Li Auto at 33,181 units [1][22][31] Group 2: Emerging Brands and Trends - The second tier of new forces saw significant growth, with Lantu surpassing 20,000 units for the first time, and both Zhiji and Avita achieving record sales of 13,600 and 14,100 units respectively [1][34][38] - BYD sold 480,200 units in November, exceeding production by 6,000 units, with cumulative sales for the year surpassing 4.18 million units [1][3] - Geely's monthly sales reached 310,000 units, a 24% year-on-year increase, with cumulative sales for the year at 2.79 million units [2][3] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The automotive industry is entering a critical year-end sales period, with companies expected to ramp up promotions and new vehicle launches to secure annual rankings [4][40] - The competition is anticipated to intensify as companies respond to the impending expiration of national subsidies, leading to increased promotional activities [40]

深圳高速公路股份(00548.HK)：10月，梅观高速、机荷东段、机荷西段、沿江项目及外环项目路费收入 分别为人民币1068.8万元、4875万元、3984.8万元、5531.2万元及8906.7万元。 12月2日，港股早盘冲高回落，午后低位窄幅震荡，截止收盘，恒生指数涨0.24%报26095.05点，恒生科 技指数跌0.37%报5624.04点，国企指数涨0.11%报9182.65点，红筹指数涨0.76%报4277.86点。 盘面上，大型科技股走势分化，阿里巴巴涨1.36%，腾讯控股跌0.4%，京东集团跌0.94%，小米集团涨 0.99%，网易涨0.9%，美团跌3.06%，快手涨0.88%，哔哩哔哩跌1.83%；黄金股走高，珠峰黄金涨超 7%，博彩股普涨，银河娱乐涨超2%；石油股涨幅居前，中石化涨超2%；新能源汽车股下跌，蔚来跌超 6%，小鹏汽车跌超5%；医药股走弱，派格生物医药跌超10%，歌礼制药跌超6%；芯片股走弱，中兴通 讯跌超5%，华虹半导体跌近3%。万科企业尾盘拉升涨超3%。 企业新闻 比亚迪股份(01211.HK)：前11月新能源汽车产量约411.76万辆，同比增长7.29%；销量约418.2万 ...

2025年12月2日是第14个全国交通安全日，吉利汽车集团正式宣布将每年12月正式设立为"吉利安全月"。此举是吉利积极履行守护公域安全企业责任的 关键举措，为用户的年终出行筑起一道前瞻性的安全防线。吉利此次将"全国交通安全日"从一日的公众倡导扩展为更持续更深度的安全系列行动，也是践 行"用户至上、安全第一"的造车核心价值观的进一步体现。全新落成的吉利全球全域安全中心也将在12月12日正式启用。作为规模更大、测试功能更多的汽 车安全试验中心，将同步向全行业开放共享，标志着吉利将以持续进化的全域安全技术体系，更高更完善的智能汽车安全标准，为用户履行"安全伙伴"的长 期承诺。 ...

"它是把我们在业务当中的一些不可能变成了可能。"项目上线后，导购形象评分大幅提升，更直接拉动 了销售，形象优秀门店的店效显著提升。目前，这套方案已成功复用到陈列检查、工厂安全巡检等多个 场景，展现出极高的推广潜力。 亚朵酒店在比赛中展示的方案「亚朵 1900+门店的 AI 食安守护计划」，则聚焦于后厨运营网络。他们 创新性融合飞书多维表格、AI Agent及物联网技术，打造智能化管理闭环。一线通过语音或拍照即可完 成自动打签与入库；系统自动沉淀数字化台账，将复杂的非标作业转化为标准数据流，实现业务全链路 在线化。该方案在为一线大幅减负、年提效超27万小时的同时，更为战区和总部提供了丰富的管理触点 与业务洞察。 制造业革新：AI深入车间，破解"经验依赖"与"数据孤岛" 当AI在服务业持续释放价值时，其赋能边界绝非局限于文书处理或管理场景。吉利汽车研究院团队表 示："在流程复杂、数据密集的制造业一线，AI同样能打破固化十余年的传统模式。" 当AI逐渐褪去神秘面纱，谁是这场技术变革真正的操盘手？答案是：一线业务人。 近日，首届「飞书 AI效率先锋全国大赛」华东赛区半决赛圆满收官。罗莱超柔床品、吉利汽车研究院、极兔速 ...

长城11月交付新车4.0万辆，同环比+11.4%/-13.1%。 理想汽车11月交付新车3.3万辆，同环比-31.9%/+4.5%； 鸿蒙智行11月交付新车8.2万辆，同环比+89.6%/+20.0%； 比亚迪11月交付新车48.0万辆，同环比-5.2%/+8.7%； 埃安11月交付新车3.6万辆，同环比-14.2%/+34.3%； 零跑11月交付新车7.0万辆，同环比+75.0%/+0.1%； 蔚来11月交付新车3.6万辆，同环比+76.3%/-10.2%； 极氪11月交付新车2.9万辆，同环比+6.8%/+34.6%； 小鹏11月交付新车3.7万辆，同环比+18.9%/-12.6%； 小米11月交付新车超4.0万辆； 智己11月交付新车1.4万辆，同环比+35.7%/+3.2%； 岚图11月交付新车2.0万辆，同环比+84.3%/+16.2%； 吉利11月交付新车18.8万辆，同环比+53.4%/+5.6%。 深蓝11月交付新车3.3万辆，同环比-8.2%/-10.1%。 加入社群 主机厂电芯采购：兼顾性能和成本 比亚迪出海：发力东南亚 期推荐 往 CATL ：储能市场增长高于动力 添加半仙微信，备注"进 ...

来源：中国汽车报 本报记者 赵建国 中国汽车工业协会发布的最新产销数据显示，10月，汽车出口66.6万辆，环比增长2.1％，同比增长 22.9％；1～10月，汽车出口561.6万辆，同比增长15.7％。"出口增速比国内产销增速更快。"中国汽车 工业协会副秘书长陈士华说。 一个不容置疑的事实是，目前中国汽车市场已经从增量竞争转为存量竞争，"内卷"的行业生态说明，接 下来很难再有新的蛋糕可供分享了。而海外业务对车企来说，将不再是锦上添花，或将成为新增长极。 这从近期车企发布的海外市场销量占比以及营收情况也可看出，越来越多中国车企海外业务的重要性愈 加凸显。中国汽车工业协会专务副秘书长魏文清最近撰文称，到2030年，中国品牌汽车海外销量将接近 1000万辆。 销量占比不断实现新突破 最新数据显示，中国车企尤其是头部车企的出口销量不仅持续增长，而且在总销量中的占比也不断攀 升。今年1～10月，奇瑞海外市场累计销量为106万辆，同比增长13％，占总体销量的46％，比例与上年 同期基本持平，保持了稳健向好态势。 比亚迪的销量数据显示，2024年，比亚迪海外销量为41.72万辆，占总销量的比重为9.8％。今年1～10 月， ...