交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-01-30锰硅早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 锰硅2605： 2 1.基本面：从成本端来看，整体锰矿成交价格略有回调，但整体成交价格仍处于高位，对硅锰合金价格仍有较强成本支 撑；2026年内蒙地区电价以及南方电价正在验证中。从供应端来看，前期北方主产区新增硅锰炉子点火，普硅硅锰产能增 加，本月相继出铁，供应压力增加。南方合金厂开工率稳定较低，据了解，2026年广西、贵州电费优惠政策力度有待验 证，大多依旧维持避峰生产，存在厂家选择暂时停产，等待1月底的电费结算价格。当前硅锰供应宽松压力仍存。从需求 端来看，河钢集团26年1月硅锰采量17000吨，对比12月采量：14700吨，数量增加；硅锰定价5920元/吨，对比12月硅锰定 价：5770元/吨，定价上 ...

上市企业：宝钢股份（600019）,马钢股份（600808）,首钢股份（000959）,鞍钢股份（000898）,华菱钢 铁（000932）,太钢不锈（000825）,柳钢股份（601003）,包钢股份（600010）,本钢板材（000761）,酒 钢宏兴（600307） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国冷轧薄板行业发展现状调查及市场分析预测报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年12月中国冷轧薄板产量为432万吨，同比增长0.8%；2025年1-12月中 国冷轧薄板累计产量为4851.7万吨，累计增长6.9%。 2020-2025年中国冷轧薄板产量统计图 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline in China's welded steel pipe production, highlighting a significant decrease in output and providing insights into the industry's future outlook based on a report by Zhiyan Consulting [1]. Industry Summary - As of December 2025, China's welded steel pipe production reached 4.92 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 10.1% [1]. - The cumulative production of welded steel pipes in China for the entire year of 2025 was 60.14 million tons, showing a slight decline of 0.8% compared to the previous year [1]. - The data indicates a downward trend in the welded steel pipe industry, which may impact related companies and investment opportunities [1]. Company Summary - The article lists several companies involved in the welded steel pipe sector, including Baosteel Co., Ltd. (600019), Xinxing Cathay International Group (000778), Changbao Steel Pipe (002478), Jiuli Special Materials (002318), Honglu Steel Structure (002541), Youfa Group (601686), CITIC Special Steel (000708), Jinzhu Pipeline (002443), and Yulong Co., Ltd. (601028) [1]. - These companies may face challenges due to the declining production figures and overall market conditions in the welded steel pipe industry [1]. Report Reference - The insights are derived from the "2026-2032 China Welded Steel Pipe Industry Development Model Analysis and Future Outlook Report" published by Zhiyan Consulting, which emphasizes the need for strategic planning in response to market changes [1].

Group 1 - The Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index fell by 2.86% as of January 30, 2026, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, led by Fostar, while Nanshan Aluminum experienced the largest decline [1] - CICC pointed out that the supply-demand gap for electrolytic aluminum continues to widen, and with global fiscal and monetary policies resonating, aluminum prices are expected to reach new highs, with profit per ton of aluminum likely to expand as prices rise [1] - Guotai Junan Securities noted that while copper prices are currently affected by macro sentiment and AI-related demand adjustments, the long-term outlook remains strong due to ongoing tight supply of copper mines and declining spot processing fees [1] Group 2 - The National Grid's fixed asset investment for the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, which supports the copper price outlook [1] - Yingda Securities emphasized the importance of following the "14th Five-Year Plan" and subsequent policy directions, suggesting a focus on technology growth stocks with earnings support, as well as cyclical varieties, domestic consumption, dividend stocks, and sectors with improving economic conditions [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index as of December 31, 2025, include China National Offshore Oil Corporation, SAIC Motor, Gree Electric Appliances, and others, accounting for 51.95% of the index [2]

截至2026年1月30日10:13，国证自由现金流指数下跌2.35%。成分股方面涨跌互现，亚翔集成、福斯达、宏力达等领涨；南山铝业、株冶集团、白银有色等 领跌。自由现金流ETF(159201)下跌2.94%，最新报价1.32元。流动性方面，自由现金流ETF盘中换手3.01%，成交3.66亿元。拉长时间看，截至1月29日，自 由现金流ETF近1周日均成交6.62亿元。 从资金净流入方面来看，自由现金流ETF近10天获得连续资金净流入，合计"吸金"19.55亿元，日均净流入达1.96亿元。自由现金流ETF最新份额达91.28亿 份，最新规模达123.52亿元，均创成立以来新高。数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。自由现金流ETF本月以来融资净买额达248.87万元，最新融资余额达 1.37亿元。 截至1月29日，自由现金流ETF近6月净值上涨27.23%。从收益能力看，截至2026年1月29日，自由现金流ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为7%，最长连涨月 数为6个月，最长连涨涨幅为22.69%，涨跌月数比为8/2，上涨月份平均收益率为3.3%，月盈利百分比为80%，月盈利概率为80.84%，历史持有6个月盈利概 率为10 ...

Group 1: Key Insights from the Reports - The report on the banking industry indicates that 2026 is expected to be a year where the fundamentals of banks improve, with revenue pressure less than in 2025 and a stronger elasticity of revenue improvement compared to profit [13] - The banking sector is anticipated to experience a shift from a focus on liquidity to a focus on fundamentals, with expectations of economic recovery and a more favorable environment for growth premiums [13] - The report highlights that credit demand is expected to remain stable, but the structure of demand needs optimization, with state-owned banks and quality regional city commercial banks likely to perform better [13] Group 2: Industry Performance and Trends - The metal and new materials industry report notes a significant increase in metal prices due to geopolitical tensions, with precious metals rising by 18.46% and aluminum by 4.16% in the recent week [5][16] - The report emphasizes that the copper market is expected to remain strong due to increased investment in power grids and AI data centers, with a projected price increase [15] - The report on Anta Sports highlights the acquisition of a 29% stake in PUMA, which is seen as a strategic move to enhance its global multi-brand strategy, with the transaction valued at approximately 15 billion euros [19] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - China Shipbuilding's earnings forecast for 2025 indicates a significant increase in net profit, expected to be between 7 billion to 8.4 billion yuan, driven by rising demand in the shipbuilding sector [21] - New Oriental's revenue for the second quarter of FY26 reached 1.191 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.7%, with a notable improvement in operating profit margins [22] - Dongfang Zhenxuan reported a revenue increase of 5.7% in the first half of FY26, driven by self-operated product sales and improved profit margins [24]

本报讯 （记者贾丽）1月29日，第二届"新质生产力产业实践洞见活动"在北京举办，会上环球时报、中 国科协企业创新服务中心和赛迪新质生产力发展促进中心发布了超50个"新质生产力产业实践示范案 例"，涉及人工智能基础与产业融合、先进制造、AI新应用、生物医药、具身智能、智能网联汽车产品 等热门领域。 华为云以基于CloudMatrix AI Infra智算云服务，成功入选"人工智能基础与产业融合"示范案例TOP5，彰 显了中国式AI与产业融合发展新路径。 会上，华为云副总裁黄瑾表示，人工智能技术正在系统性重塑千行万业，而实现这一变革的核心在于将 算力基础与行业场景深度结合。华为云通过"深耕根技术、软硬协同、架构创新"路径，持续推动AI从技 术能力转化为解决行业实际难题的价值产出，助力新质生产力实现从试点验证到规模化落地的关键跨 越。AI正从提供"情绪价值"，走向创造真实的"业务价值"。 筑牢AI应用根基 行业AI应用如火如荼，背后离不开坚实、高效且易用的AI Infra的有力支撑。据了解，华为云长期致力 于构建从底层硬件到上层服务的全栈AI基础设施，为AI技术走进千行万业提供可靠的AI底座与开放的 平台能力。目前 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Baowu and China Everbright Group signed a new strategic cooperation framework agreement to deepen financial and industrial collaboration, aiming for mutual benefits and high-quality development [1][3][9]. Group 1 - The signing took place on January 29, with key leaders from both companies, including China Baowu's Chairman Hu Wangming and Everbright Group's Chairman Wu Lijun, participating in discussions [1][7]. - Both companies reviewed their successful cooperation since the initial agreement in 2020, highlighting fruitful outcomes across various fields [3][9]. - The new agreement is seen as an opportunity to further enhance strategic cooperation, expand collaboration areas, and support industrial transformation and upgrading [3][9]. Group 2 - The signing was represented by China Baowu's Chief Accountant Li Lina and Everbright Group's Vice President Hong Bo, with other relevant department heads and subsidiary leaders in attendance [4][10].

Core Viewpoint - Maanshan Iron & Steel Company (600808.SH) announced a projected net loss for 2025, estimating a loss of RMB 2.50 billion to RMB 1.90 billion, which represents a reduction in losses of approximately RMB 44.09 billion to 44.69 billion compared to the previous year [1] Industry Summary - The domestic steel industry is continuing its trend of reducing output and restructuring, facing severe operational challenges due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances, pressure on steel prices, and fluctuations in raw material costs [1] - The company is committed to its "Four Have" operational principles and is actively pursuing institutional reforms and collaborative efficiency improvements [1] - The company aims to optimize its product structure and increase the proportion of high-end products to enhance operational capabilities and production line efficiency [1] Company Summary - With the support of Baosteel (600019), Maanshan Iron & Steel has achieved stable improvements in its iron-making system and enhanced quality and efficiency in its steel rolling system [1] - The company has implemented a differentiated management approach under the operational guideline of "low cost, differentiation, high efficiency, and fast pace," leading to significant improvements in cost competitiveness [1] - Despite a substantial improvement in annual operating performance, with a reduction in net losses of approximately RMB 44.09 billion to 44.69 billion year-on-year, the company has not yet achieved profitability due to market fluctuations in the fourth quarter and the transitional phase of its development [1]

智通财经APP讯，马钢股份(600808.SH)发布2025年年度业绩预亏公告，预计2025年度实现归属于上市 公司股东的净利润为人民币-2.50亿元到-1.90亿元，与上年同期相比，将减少亏损人民币44.09亿元到 44.69亿元。 2025年，国内钢铁行业延续减量调结构发展态势，在市场供需矛盾持续、钢材价格承压及原料成本波动 的环境下，钢企经营形势严峻。本期间，公司坚持"四有"经营原则，扎实推进机构改革与协同创效，深 化多维算账经营与对标找差，持续优化产品结构、提升高端产品占比，努力提升产品经营能力与产线运 行效率。其中，马钢有限在宝钢股份的协同支持下，实现铁前系统稳定提升、钢轧系统提质增效、经营 体系协同发展;长江钢铁以"低成本、差异化、高效率、快节奏"为经营方针，实施差异化管控，推进基 层组织变革，成本竞争力明显提升。公司多措并举，全年经营绩效较上年大幅改善，归属于上市公司股 东的净利润同比减亏约人民币44.09亿元到44.69亿元，但受四季度市场行情波动影响，加之公司处于转 型发展阶段，且部分参股公司经营业绩下滑，公司全年仍未实现扭亏。 ...