Core Viewpoint - European natural gas inventories have reached their lowest level since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, posing a risk of gas shortages in the EU as current storage is significantly below the five-year average [1] Group 1: Current Gas Inventory Status - As of January 4, European underground gas storage facilities are at 59.9% capacity, a level typically seen at the end of January in previous years [1] - This current level is approximately 13% lower than the average for early January over the past five years [1] Group 2: Factors Contributing to Gas Shortages - The rapid depletion of underground gas reserves is attributed to a surge in heating demand due to a cold snap that hit Europe in late December [1] - Forecasts indicate that temperatures in early January may drop to the lowest levels seen in 15 years, which will exert additional pressure on the energy system [1] Group 3: Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict - Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, the EU has significantly reduced its energy imports from Russia, which previously accounted for about 40% of the EU's gas demand [1] - The "RePowerEU" plan aims for Brussels to completely halt energy imports from Russia by 2027 [1] - Russia has criticized the EU's sanctions as self-destructive and has claimed that Europe is sacrificing cheap energy for political reasons [1]

Core Viewpoint - By 2025, Russia's pipeline natural gas exports to Europe are projected to decline by 44% compared to 2018, marking the lowest level since the mid-1970s, primarily due to disruptions in exports through Ukraine and the EU's gradual reduction of fossil fuel imports from Russia [1] Group 1: Export Trends - In 2018-2019, Russia's pipeline natural gas exports to Europe reached a record high of 1750 to 1800 billion cubic meters per year, generating significant revenue for the state-owned Gazprom [1] - The only remaining pipeline route for Russian gas to Europe is the TurkStream subsea pipeline, following Ukraine's failure to renew its gas transit contract [1] Group 2: Alternative Supply Routes - Besides the TurkStream, countries such as Serbia, Hungary, and Slovakia also import Russian gas through this route [1] - Russia has also been exporting natural gas to Europe in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG), making it the second-largest gas supplier to the EU after the United States [1] Group 3: Future Projections - The EU has announced plans to completely ban imports of Russian natural gas by the end of 2027, aiming to reduce its energy dependence on Russia [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market is currently being pulled by intermittent geopolitical risks and a weak supply - demand structure. In the short term, geopolitical risks may dominate, and it is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a volatile and strong trend after the holiday. However, the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market is the long - term logic that suppresses oil prices, and the concern of global supply surplus still exists [5][76]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Spot price and basis**: As of the week ending December 31, 2025, the spot price of crude oil produced in the Shengli Oilfield area in China was 57.72 US dollars per barrel (equivalent to 405.7 RMB per barrel), with a week - on - week decrease of 3.2 US dollars per barrel. The main contract of domestic crude oil futures, 2602, closed at 432.2 RMB per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 12.5 RMB per barrel. The basis was 26.5 RMB per barrel, and the degree of contango decreased slightly [8]. - **Geopolitical risks and price trends**: In the last week before the holiday, as geopolitical risks were gradually digested by the market, the crude oil premium began to be reversed. The weak supply - demand expectation in the oil market dominated, causing the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures to show a volatile downward trend. The domestic crude oil futures 2602 contract was weak, with a cumulative decline of 2.17% to 432.2 RMB per barrel during the week [11]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Remain in an Excess Expectation, and the Production Increase Rhythm Slows Down - **OPEC+ production increase**: Since the second quarter of 2025, eight major OPEC+ oil - producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia have launched a phased production increase policy. From April to September, the cumulative production increase exceeded 2.1 million barrels per day. In the fourth quarter, the production increase continued. In November, it was decided to continue the production increase plan in December. However, to cope with the possible seasonal off - peak demand in the first quarter of 2026, production increase will be suspended from January 2026 for three months. In November 2025, OPEC member countries' crude oil production was 28.48 million barrels per day, with a year - on - year increase of 1.711 million barrels per day [22][23][24]. - **Non - OPEC oil - producing countries**: Non - OPEC+ countries' capacity expansion has further aggravated the supply surplus. As of the week ending December 26, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 409, with a week - on - week increase of 3 and a year - on - year decrease of 74. The daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.827 million barrels, with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 million barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 0.254 million barrels per day [42]. - **Northern Hemisphere demand**: The United States, the world's largest crude oil consumer, has obvious seasonal changes in crude oil demand. From December to February is the peak season for heating oil consumption. Entering December, the demand for crude oil in the Northern Hemisphere will enter the peak season, and the inventory will change from accumulation to depletion. However, the EIA and IEA have both lowered their oil price forecasts and increased their forecasts for oil supply growth, while lowering their forecasts for demand growth [44][45][46]. - **US inventory and refinery operation rate**: As of the week ending December 26, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 1.934 million barrels week - on - week to 422.9 million barrels, and the refinery operation rate was 94.7%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 percentage points [48]. - **China's crude oil imports**: In November 2025, China's crude oil imports were 50.891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.88%. The daily average import volume reached 12.38 million barrels, the highest level since August 2023. In 2026, China's crude oil production is expected to increase by 1.2% - 1.5%, demand is expected to reach 758 million tons, and imports are expected to reach 530 million tons [57][58]. 3.3 South American Geopolitical Turmoil Continues to Escalate, and Crude Oil Premium Increases - **Short - term impact**: In December 2025, the South American geopolitical situation heated up. The US military's actions against Venezuela triggered market concerns, leading to a short - term increase in the risk premium of international crude oil futures prices. However, this increase was mainly due to market sentiment rather than a substantial supply interruption [65]. - **Long - term impact**: In the long - term, the actual supply capacity of Venezuela is limited, and the global crude oil market is facing a structural supply - demand imbalance. The South American geopolitical risk is difficult to reverse the overall weak pattern of oil prices. After the initial sharp fluctuations, oil prices are expected to return to being dominated by fundamentals [66][67][69]. 3.4 Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market Increased Significantly Week - on - Week - As of December 16, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 54,896 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 3,537 contracts and a significant decrease of 9,975 contracts from the November average. As of December 23, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 99,095 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 58,107 contracts and a significant decrease of 56,093 contracts from the November average [71]. 3.5 Conclusion - During the New Year's Day holiday, the US military's actions in Venezuela and the threat from President Trump may lead to an increase in oil prices after the holiday. However, the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market is the long - term factor suppressing oil prices. In the short term, domestic and international crude oil futures prices may maintain a volatile and strong trend [76].

美国财政部外国资产控制办公室2025年1月对俄石油行业施加制裁。由于俄罗斯天然气工业石油公司、 俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司分别持有塞尔维亚石油公司44.9%和11.3%股份，美国制裁波及塞石油公司 并要求俄方股东退出该公司，制裁于2025年10月9日生效。12月2日，潘切沃炼油厂停止运营。12月24 日，美国财政部外国资产控制办公室向塞尔维亚石油公司颁发特别许可，相关许可期限延长至2026年3 月24日。新许可允许塞尔维亚石油公司在制裁框架下，继续就涉及俄股权的调整和出售问题开展谈判。 但该特别许可并不意味着公司可以正常开展全部经营活动。在许可有效期内，公司仍未获得全面恢复日 常生产和商业运营的授权。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 当天，塞尔维亚总统武契奇与美国政府、美国国务院、美国财政部及匈牙利总理欧尔班就解决塞尔维亚 石油公司受制裁问题举行了重要会谈。武契奇将于当地时间2026年1月1日发表讲话，介绍详细情况。 当地时间2025年12月31日获悉，美国财政部外国资产控制办公室将塞尔维亚石油公司的运营许可证延长 至2026年1月23日。 塞尔维亚矿业和能源部长汉达诺维奇表示，许可证延期意味着塞石油公司旗下该国唯一活 ...

你有没有发现，最近这两周的新闻有一种特别诡异的割裂感？ 一边是各大国际组织和国家元首都在喊着要停火、要谈判、要和平，调门起得比谁都高，仿佛明天就能在谈判桌上签协议。但你只要把视线稍微从那些外交 辞令上移开，哪怕只是去查一下前线哪怕一天的弹药消耗量，就会发现现实完全是另一码事。 这种割裂感让我昨天盯着屏幕愣了好一会。嘴上全是主义，手里全是生意，这大概就是现在局势最真实的写照。我专门去查了一下最近的具体动向，这种互 相矛盾的信息流简直让人头皮发麻。就在大家都在呼吁"和平解决"的当口，战场上的烈度其实是在升级的。 根据路透社援引乌克兰空军的通报，就在上周，俄罗斯向第聂伯罗发射了一枚代号为"榛树"的中程高超音速弹道导弹。这不是普通的炮仗，这是这种级别的 武器首次在实战中亮相。我都纳闷，这哪里像是要谈判的样子？ 这分明是在谈判桌掀翻之前，先把手里的筹码全部砸在桌面上震场子。你再看另一边的动作。美国现任在这个节骨眼上，突然放开了对乌克兰使用远程武器 的限制。根据美联储和几家主要西方媒体的公开报道，乌克兰随即就使用了美制的ATACMS导弹袭击了俄罗斯布良斯克州的军事设施。 这就好比两个人在酒桌上说要握手言和，结果桌子底下每 ...

Group 1 - Serbia has reached an agreement with Russia to extend the natural gas supply contract until March 31, 2026, ensuring winter energy supply security [3] - Serbian President Vucic emphasized that this arrangement will effectively guarantee the needs of residents and economic operations, alleviating concerns about natural gas shortages [3] - The overall energy security situation in Serbia is stable, and the country is prepared to handle various complex situations [3] Group 2 - In the oil sector, negotiations are ongoing between Russian gas company Gazprom and Hungary's MOL regarding the adjustment of shares in the Serbian oil company [3] - Serbia is open to cooperation with Hungary, viewing the relationship as friendly with a solid foundation for collaboration [3]

原油日报 | 2025-12-24 海外圣诞假期油市交易转淡 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所2026年2月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨37美分，收于每桶58.38美元，涨幅为0.64%；2月交货 的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨31美分，收于每桶62.38美元，涨幅为0.5%。SC原油主力合约收涨0.14%，报442 元/桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 2、 当地时间12月23日，塞尔维亚总统武契奇表示，塞尔维亚已与俄罗斯方面就天然气供应问题达成一致，现有 协议将延长至2026年3月31日，确保冬季能源供应安全。武契奇指出，这一安排将有效保障居民生活和经济运行需 要，民众无需担心天然气短缺问题。他强调，当前塞尔维亚在能源保障方面总体形势稳定，国家已做好应对各种 复杂情况的准备。在谈及石油领域相关问题时，武契奇表示，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司正在与匈牙利能源公司 MOL就塞尔维亚石油公司的股份调整事宜进行谈判。塞方对与匈方开展合作持开放态度，认为两国关系友好、合 作基础良好。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 自特朗普政府通过锁定油轮来加强限制委内瑞拉原油收入的措施以来，已有十余艘油轮在委内瑞拉海岸装载 石 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent EU sanctions have severely impacted Russia's energy sector, particularly its oil exports, leading to a significant reduction in its ability to operate in international markets and a shift towards reliance on China for energy exports [1][3][5]. Group 1: Impact of Sanctions - The EU's 19th round of sanctions has blacklisted 117 Russian oil tankers, bringing the total number of sanctioned Russian vessels to 557, crippling Russia's ability to sell oil [1]. - The sanctions have made it difficult for Russia to repair ships, obtain insurance, and settle payments, resulting in rising transportation costs and logistical challenges [3]. - The sanctions on major Russian energy companies have restricted their access to USD payment channels and international financing, causing third-party buyers to withdraw from purchasing Russian oil [3]. Group 2: Shift in Energy Markets - Russia's energy cooperation with Europe has drastically reduced, with European imports of Russian energy plummeting, making it unlikely for Russia to regain its previous market share in Europe [5][7]. - The reliance on energy exports for budget revenue is high, with the energy sector providing one-third of Russia's budget income, making the economy vulnerable [7][9]. - Russia's energy production is at risk due to aging oil fields and a lack of new discoveries, with over 90% of drilling and mining equipment being imported [9][11]. Group 3: Pivot to China - The Power of Siberia pipeline is operating at full capacity, supplying 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas to China annually, with plans to increase this to 44 billion cubic meters [13][15]. - Russia has become China's largest oil supplier, with nearly 20% of China's oil imports coming from Russia, and the share of natural gas steadily increasing to about 18% [17]. - The use of local currencies in energy trade between Russia and China is rising, establishing a payment system that is less reliant on USD and EUR, enhancing resilience against Western sanctions [17][20]. Group 4: Long-term Cooperation - The energy cooperation roadmap signed for 2025 includes traditional energy supply increases and renewable energy development, creating a comprehensive partnership from exploration to processing [22]. - Despite competition from other Asian countries, China remains the most viable market for Russian energy exports due to its large consumption capacity [27][29]. - The ongoing energy transition globally poses challenges for traditional energy demand, but China's stable energy demand provides a crucial buffer for Russia's export revenues [33][35]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Russia's energy technology independence is challenging, with significant reliance on Chinese technology in low-carbon and renewable sectors [38][40]. - The long-term presence of Western sanctions and internal technological shortcomings necessitate deeper cooperation with China as a strategic choice for Russia [42][44]. - By 2050, Russia's energy landscape will be reshaped, requiring a deep binding with China to maintain its status as an energy power and adapt to global energy transitions [46][48][49].

新华社俄罗斯斯沃博德内12月20日电 通讯｜俄罗斯远东小城里的中文课 新华社记者耿辉凰 刘恺 孙萍 在俄罗斯远东地区阿穆尔州斯沃博德内市，一间外语课教室里随处可见带有灯笼、折扇和祥云等中 国文化元素的装饰，11岁的阿廖娜·卡林金娜正用写有"我爱你"的贴纸和红色彩纸制作送给妈妈的贺 卡。 "设置中文课是为了培养更多了解中国的人才，为孩子们将来参与对华合作提供更多可能。希望有 一天热爱中文的孩子们可以去中国留学，通过合作交流与中国伙伴们建立深厚友谊。"科瓦连科说。 校长玛丽亚·科瓦连科说，学校为五至八年级学生提供中文选修课。"中国拥有悠久的历史与优良的 礼仪文化传统，我们的课程将语言与文化相结合，让学生们通过小组形式学习体验，全方位了解中 国。"科瓦连科说。 斯捷潘是学校的中文老师。"我祖母的祖母是中国人，我从小就对中文感兴趣，很喜欢茶和中国文 化。我6岁时就去过中国，到现在系统学习中文已有8年了。"斯捷潘说，他还为学校老师们组织过制作 中国菜肴的大师班活动，大家都踊跃参加。 阿穆尔州与黑龙江省黑河市隔江相望，地缘优势为两地交流合作创造有利条件。俄罗斯总统普京日 前签署关于中国公民临时入境俄罗斯的法令，中国对俄罗 ...

策调整以及地缘局势变化可能导致原油供给增量不及预期，并将减缓原油市场 过剩预期以及油价下行幅度，同时若宏观环境超预期修复，将给油价带来底部 支撑，叠加油价已经连续四年下跌，2026 年的原油表现可能会比 2025 年相对 更有韧性。 原油年报 2025 年 12 月 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】 1448 号 研究员： 研究员：黄思源 从业资格证：F03124114 投资分析证：Z0023501 原油年报 2025-12 回顾 2025 年，年初，在关税政策和 OPEC+增产计划的共同作用下，油价走 出一个流畅的下行趋势，年中受到中东局势升级带来的地缘风险，油价出现了 一波急涨，但这场由风险溢价驱动的上涨缺乏基本面支撑。随着局势迅速缓和、 停火协议生效，风险溢价被快速挤出，油价随之大幅回落。进入第三季度，受 到需求旺季的托底，油价并未继续深跌，而是进入横盘整理阶段，然而随着旺 季的结束，市场供应压力持续显现，使得油价中枢持续下行。 展望后市，供需方面，2026 年全球石油供给将维持增长，但增幅或低于 2025 年。虽然 OPEC+在一季度暂停增产，但后续仍有望继续释放产能，巴西、 加拿大等非减产联 ...