证券研究报告 电力设备与新能源 2025 年全球气电回顾与展望：增长远 超年初预期，2026 年有望再创辉煌 华泰研究 2026 年 2 月 24 日│中国内地 动态点评 2025 回顾:美国领跑全球燃机需求增长，供电方案呈多元化趋势 根据 McCoy,4Q25 全球燃机新签订单 34GW，同/环比+134%/+42%，创十 年以来单季度新高（>10MW 口径，下同）。2025 全年全球燃机新签订单 合计 100GW，同比+75%，增速同比加快 42pct。全球燃机需求共振，2025 全年美国市场以 159%的同比增速领跑全球，订单占比 44%；非美市场亦实 现了 40%的订单同比增速，其中亚洲、中东等区域订单占比 22%、17%。 分企业看，三大主机厂商订单高增下有所分化。我们估算 GEV、西门子能 源、MHI 2025 年新增燃机订单 30、36、24GW，同比+48%、+197%、+51%， 2025 年市占率为 30%、36%、24%，同比-5、+15、-3pct，得益于均衡的 市场布局和完备的产品矩阵，西门子能源 2025 年实现了市占率大幅增长。 数据中心订单需求持续高增，推动订单销售均价提升。以 ...

There's so much to talk about this Monday morning. But before we jump into all of it, Tom, just want to get your thoughts on what we are seeing with retail trading as we do come into a big week with Nvidia earnings. >> Sure.And it's been actually the markets have been pretty good. You named the you really did name the top um the top five and of the three uh individual equities, you know, Tesla, Micron, and and Nvidia, um you've seen an incredible amount of action in in in the derivatives market all those. S ...

Investment Wave Overview - A significant investment wave from Japan is focusing on U.S. energy and industrial markets, with a commitment of $550 billion targeting LNG exports, power generation, and critical minerals [1] LNG Exporters - U.S. liquefied natural gas exporters are poised to benefit, particularly with a new LNG facility in Texas aimed at expanding export capacity and enhancing America's energy dominance [2] - Japan, as one of the largest LNG importers, is expected to establish long-term supply agreements with U.S. exporters, which is crucial for the investment strategy [2] Power Infrastructure - GE Vernova, specializing in power generation equipment and energy infrastructure, is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing global demand for reliable gas-based electricity generation [3] Critical Minerals - The focus on critical minerals is intensifying, as they are vital for defense systems, energy infrastructure, and advanced manufacturing, making domestic production a national priority [4] - The influx of foreign capital into strategic U.S. industries is boosting positive sentiment across sectors such as LNG exporters, power infrastructure providers, and rare earth producers, which are seen as essential to America's economic and energy future [4]

Core Insights - The aviation industry is providing an unexpected solution to the power supply challenges faced by AI data centers by repurposing retired Boeing aircraft engines into ground gas turbines for direct power supply [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The global gas turbine market is dominated by GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, which hold approximately 80% market share [2] - FTAI Aviation has identified a market opportunity due to the long lead times for heavy gas turbine orders, with the modification of an aircraft engine into a power turbine taking only 30 to 45 days once the design phase is completed [2] - FTAI's stock has risen by about 42% since entering the power business, with an estimated annual EBITDA contribution of $750 million, representing 52% of previous total annual expectations [2] Group 2: Technical Feasibility - Converting aircraft engines to land-based power generation (Aeroderivatives) is technically feasible, involving changes such as replacing fuel nozzles for natural gas and adjusting the front fan size [3] - The lifespan of aircraft components can be extended significantly in power generation, with FTAI able to utilize parts with only a few years of remaining life for several more years in this new application [3] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Traditional giants like GE Vernova do not view these smaller units as direct competition, emphasizing the fuel efficiency advantage of heavy gas turbines over a 20-year operational cycle [4] - FTAI and Boom Supersonic are proposing their products in a "Combined Cycle" mode to enhance efficiency, potentially bridging the gap with heavy units [4] - If one-third of the approximately 1,600 commercial engines retired annually were converted for power generation, it could add 13 GW of capacity, equating to a quarter of global annual capacity [4]

Group 1: SoftBank and Energy Investment - SoftBank Group is leading a consortium to invest in a $33.3 billion gas-fired power project in the U.S., involving major players like Panasonic, Murata Manufacturing, Mizuho Financial Group, and Goldman Sachs [2] - The project aims to provide electrical capacity for AI-focused data centers and is part of a broader $550 billion investment commitment from Japan to the U.S. to enhance economic security and infrastructure [3] Group 2: Digital Euro Development - The European Central Bank (ECB) is developing a Digital Euro with a transaction fee model intended to be lower than international card costs but potentially higher than some domestic payment schemes [4] - The Digital Euro will function as "digital cash" with offline transaction capabilities, and pilot programs are set to begin in 2027, with a full launch targeted for 2029 or 2030 [5] Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Implications - The Kremlin supports China's rejection of U.S. allegations regarding a secret nuclear test, which has heightened diplomatic tensions following the expiration of the New START treaty [6][7] - The National Bank of Romania has maintained its key interest rate at 6.5% amid persistent inflation, forecasting a drop to 3.7% by the end of 2026, but warns that this does not account for potential impacts from extended gas price caps [10]

Group 1 - Bridgewater's latest 13F report reveals a total market value of $27.4 billion in Q4 2025, up from $25.5 billion in Q3 2025 [3] - The top ten holdings account for 36.35% of the total portfolio, with significant positions in SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), iShares S&P 500 ETF (IVV), Nvidia, Amazon, and Newmont [3][4] - The five largest increases in holdings include SPY, Micron Technology, Oracle, Nvidia, and Newmont Corporation [4][5] Group 2 - Bridgewater increased its Nvidia shares from 2.51 million in Q3 to 3.87 million in Q4, a 54% increase, and also raised its Amazon holdings to 1.95 million shares [5] - The report indicates a reduction in holdings for companies like Uber, Fiserv, Google, META, and Microsoft [5] Group 3 - Ray Dalio emphasizes that the main sources of returns in 2025 stem from changes in currency value and the underperformance of U.S. stocks compared to non-U.S. stocks and gold [8] - The dollar depreciated against several currencies, with a notable 39% decline against gold, which emerged as the best-performing asset [8] - The report highlights a significant capital reallocation from the U.S. to international markets, a trend expected to continue [8]

Core Insights - The electrical distribution equipment industry is experiencing significant growth due to the global AI race, alongside the booming data center and power sectors [1] - Forgent Power Solutions, formed from the merger of four legacy companies, went public in February with a market cap nearing $8 billion [1] Company Overview - Forgent serves three primary markets: data centers, power grids, and industrial sectors, with the data center segment currently expanding the fastest [2] - The company has seen a 45% increase in its order backlog, attributed to the recent AI boom, which has acted as an accelerant for growth [3] Competitive Landscape - Forgent competes with larger players in the industry, including Vertiv, Eaton Corp., Schneider Electric, and GE Vernova, which have market caps ranging from $88 billion to $217 billion [4] - To differentiate itself, Forgent focuses on bespoke offerings across its four product families: transformers, switchgear equipment, transfer switches, and prefabricated solutions [5] Growth Strategy - The company was established through rapid consolidation, with Neos Partners acquiring four companies within two years, aligning with the electrification needs of the AI infrastructure boom [6] - Forgent has invested $205 million to expand its manufacturing capabilities, increasing its total manufacturing space to 2.3 million square feet [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, made significant adjustments to its positions in AI-related stocks and gold during the fourth quarter of 2022, as reported in its 13F filing with the SEC [1][2]. - Bridgewater's total holdings at the end of the fourth quarter amounted to approximately $27.4 billion, reflecting a 7.5% increase from the previous quarter's $25.5 billion [1]. - The fund added 191 new positions, increased holdings in 450 stocks, reduced positions in 395 stocks, and completely exited 165 positions during the quarter [1]. Group 2 - In the AI sector, Bridgewater notably increased its stake in NVIDIA by 1.35 million shares, raising its total from 2.51 million shares to 3.87 million shares, a 54% increase, making it the third-largest holding [1]. - Amazon also saw a significant increase in holdings, with shares rising from 1.12 million to 1.95 million, a growth of approximately 73% [1]. - In the gold sector, Bridgewater increased its position in Newmont Corporation, a leading gold producer, which was among the top five purchases for the quarter [1]. Group 3 - The top ten holdings included SPDR S&P 500 ETF and iShares S&P 500 ETF in the first two positions, with NVIDIA in third, followed by Lam Research, ServiceNow, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Adobe, and GE Vernova [2]. - Notably, several stocks in the top ten holdings, including Lam Research, ServiceNow, Google, and Microsoft, experienced varying degrees of reduction in positions [2]. - The largest reductions in positions for the quarter were seen in Uber, Fiserv, Google, META, and Microsoft [2].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Haomai Technology reached a historical high due to the improving sentiment in the gas turbine industry and the company's strong fundamentals [1] Industry Policy and Environment - The construction boom of AI data centers in the U.S. has led to a surge in electricity demand, making gas turbines a key power solution. As of January 2026, the installed natural gas power generation capacity under construction in the U.S. exceeded 29 GW, more than doubling within a year, with planned capacity reaching 159 GW [2] - Supply chain bottlenecks are evident, with GE Vernova reporting an approximately 80% increase in gas turbine contracts for 2025, and Siemens Energy expecting to sell nearly 200 units in the U.S. that year, with delivery times extending from 3.5 years to 5 years [2] - Haomai Technology, as a core supplier to giants like GE and Siemens, benefits directly from this supply-demand gap, with full order books supporting performance [2] Performance and Operating Conditions - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 8.076 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.89%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.788 billion yuan, up 26.21% [3] - The third quarter net profit was 592 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.49% [3] - The business structure has been optimized, with the tire mold business benefiting from the recovery of Chinese tire companies' overseas factories, and the CNC machine tool business seeing a 145% year-on-year revenue increase in the first half of 2025 [3] - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 33.99%, and the net margin was 22.15%, with the expense ratio decreasing by 1.44 percentage points to 8.18% [3] Financial and Technical Aspects - On February 12, the net inflow of main funds was 321,400 yuan, with the stock price rising 16.87% over the past five days [4] - Institutional investors are optimistic, with Guotou Securities giving a "Buy-A" rating on February 10 and a target price of 95.84 yuan. Four institutions have issued buy ratings in the past 90 days, with an average target price of 97.0 yuan [4] - The machinery equipment sector saw a net inflow of 6.904 billion yuan on the same day, with an industry increase of 1.45%, amplifying individual stock gains [4] Company Fundamentals - The management team is stable, with founder Zhang Gongyun frequently increasing his holdings, and core executives having long tenures, fostering a culture of innovation that enhances per capita revenue [5] - The current price-to-earnings ratio is 33.09 times, which, while higher than the specialized equipment industry average of 29.59 times, is lower than the company's historical level of 37.47 times, with performance growth supporting the valuation [5]

Core Viewpoint - Virtualware anticipates a return to double-digit organic revenue growth exceeding 30% for fiscal year 2026, with EBITDA margins projected between 20% and 25% [1][6] Financial Performance - In 2025, Virtualware reported consolidated revenues of €4.32 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.85%, with an EBITDA of €598,509, resulting in a margin of 13.8% [2] - The company's VIROO XRaaS line generated revenues of €1.95 million in 2025, up from €1.73 million in 2024, indicating successful consolidation of its business model [3] - Virtualware achieved record bookings exceeding €8 million in 2025, the highest in its 20-year history, primarily from government and nuclear projects [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is in the final year of its 2024–2026 Strategic Plan, focusing on growth and consolidation, supported by a strong backlog and recurring subscription revenues [6] - Virtualware's current liquidity position is reported as the strongest in its history, enabling stability in complex environments [5] Industry Outlook - The nuclear sector is highlighted as a growing area for Virtualware, driven by a global renaissance in nuclear energy due to the demand for clean and safe energy [7] - The company has been collaborating with GE Vernova to build virtual nuclear plants and has appointed a former Chief Nuclear Engineer to its advisory board, indicating a strategic focus on the nuclear industry [8] Recent Developments - In 2025, Virtualware completed its uplisting to Euronext Growth Paris and became a certified B Corp, while also launching a new version of its VIROO platform with enhanced functionalities [9]