｜2026年2月26日 星期四｜ NO.1腾讯再减持中金公司H股！近7个月套现5.29亿港元 腾讯再次出手减持中金公司股票。近日，港交所披露易显示，腾讯控股的全资子公司Tencent Mobility Limited于2月20日减持中金公司H股股票65万股，平均价格为21.4688港元，套现1395.47万港元。据梳 理，自2025年7月以来，腾讯已先后7次减持中金公司H股，合计套现5.29亿港元。腾讯入股中金公司可 追溯至2017年9月，彼时中金公司宣布引入腾讯控股作为战略投资者。根据认股协议，腾讯认购中金公 司新发行的2.075亿股H股，分别占中金发行后H股的12.01%及总股本的4.95%，每股认购价为 13.8港 元，合计耗资28.64亿港元。2019年中金公司定增后，腾讯持有该公司股数增至2.16亿股，持股占总股本 比例降至4.48%。 点评：腾讯持续减持中金公司H股，反映出其资产配置策略的调整与资金回笼需求。此举虽可能引发市 场对券商股短期情绪的波动，但中金公司基本面未发生根本改变。腾讯作为战略投资者，其退出步伐稳 健，对中金公司股权结构影响可控。市场应理性看待互联网巨头的财务投资调整，关注中金公 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Danish pension funds are adjusting their asset allocation strategies due to concerns over the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policies, leading to significant changes in their investment portfolios [1] Group 2 - The Danish pension fund AkademikerPension announced in January 2026 that it has liquidated all its holdings in U.S. Treasury bonds, amounting to approximately $100 million [1] - The North Royal Oil Trust (NRT) experienced a significant stock price fluctuation, with a single-day increase of 5.08% on January 5, 2026 [2] - NRT's recent financial report indicated revenues of $8.73 million and a net profit of $7.94 million [2]

Group 1 - Bridgewater's latest 13F report reveals a total market value of $27.4 billion in Q4 2025, up from $25.5 billion in Q3 2025 [3] - The top ten holdings account for 36.35% of the total portfolio, with significant positions in SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), iShares S&P 500 ETF (IVV), Nvidia, Amazon, and Newmont [3][4] - The five largest increases in holdings include SPY, Micron Technology, Oracle, Nvidia, and Newmont Corporation [4][5] Group 2 - Bridgewater increased its Nvidia shares from 2.51 million in Q3 to 3.87 million in Q4, a 54% increase, and also raised its Amazon holdings to 1.95 million shares [5] - The report indicates a reduction in holdings for companies like Uber, Fiserv, Google, META, and Microsoft [5] Group 3 - Ray Dalio emphasizes that the main sources of returns in 2025 stem from changes in currency value and the underperformance of U.S. stocks compared to non-U.S. stocks and gold [8] - The dollar depreciated against several currencies, with a notable 39% decline against gold, which emerged as the best-performing asset [8] - The report highlights a significant capital reallocation from the U.S. to international markets, a trend expected to continue [8]

Group 1 - Bridgewater Associates significantly increased its holdings in technology stocks and gold-related stocks in Q4 2025, including Nvidia, Amazon, and Newmont Corporation [1][2] - The total market value of Bridgewater's holdings reached $27.4 billion in Q4 2025, up from $25.5 billion in Q3 2025 [2] - The top ten holdings accounted for 36.35% of the total portfolio, with SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and iShares S&P 500 ETF (IVV) being the largest positions [2][3] Group 2 - Bridgewater increased its Nvidia shares from 2.51 million to 3.87 million, a 54% increase, and also raised its Amazon shares to 1.95 million [4] - The largest reductions in holdings were in Uber, Fiserv, Google, Meta, and Microsoft [4] - The report indicates a shift in asset allocation from the U.S. to international markets, with a notable focus on gold as a strong asset class [7][8] Group 3 - Ray Dalio emphasized that the main sources of returns in 2025 were changes in currency values and the underperformance of U.S. stocks compared to non-U.S. stocks and gold [7] - The dollar depreciated against several currencies, with a 39% decline against gold, highlighting gold's status as a strong asset [7] - Current high price-to-earnings ratios and low credit spreads indicate that overall valuations are expensive, with expected long-term stock returns at about 4.7% [8]

近期美国科技板块出现波动，欧洲债券市场同步迎来调整。德国国债出现小幅上行，但整体表现仍落后 于美国国债。 随着美国货币与财政政策不确定性显现，越来越多欧洲金融机构调整资产配置策略，将投资重心转向欧 洲本土及新兴市场经济体，逐步降低对美元资产的依赖。英国巴克莱银行此前针对342名管理总规模达 7.8万亿美元资产的投资者开展调研，结果显示投资者对美国对冲基金的投资意愿显著下降，对欧洲及 亚洲区域对冲基金的配置兴趣大幅提升。 摩根大通2025年四季度持仓报告显示，其减持英伟达、微软、苹果等多家美国科技巨头的持仓，同步增 加对美国国债ETF的配置，反映出机构在科技板块波动下的避险配置倾向。 荷兰养老基金ABP披露数据显示，自2024年末至2025年9月，该基金所持美债市值从近290亿欧元降至近 190亿欧元，调整动作被认为是主动减持美债或停止新增配置的结果。瑞典、丹麦多家养老机构也相继 开展美债减持操作，欧洲资本正逐步与美元资产拉开距离，弱化与美元资产的长期绑定，但在此过程中 德债表现仍未能追平美债。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 ...

Core Viewpoint - Emerging market stocks are experiencing significant gains, driven by strong economic performance, expectations of monetary easing, and a trend of US dollar depreciation, leading to increased demand for non-US assets [3][5][6]. Group 1: Emerging Market Performance - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose nearly 9%, outperforming major indices such as the Nikkei, Euro Stoxx 600, and S&P 500, marking the first time in five years that the emerging markets index's annual gain exceeded that of developed markets [5]. - Brazil's stock market has seen substantial foreign investment, with net purchases by foreign investors reaching 17.7 billion reais (approximately 23.7 billion yuan) from early January to January 23, 2026, which is more than half of the total for 2025 [8]. - South African stocks are benefiting from rising resource prices, particularly in gold, leading to increased buying in mining-related companies [8]. Group 2: Investment Trends and Risks - The uncertainty surrounding US government policies has prompted investors to reconsider their asset allocations, with emerging market stocks being viewed as a diversification option [6]. - The geographical diversity of emerging market investments is notable, with strong performances observed in East Asian markets, particularly in South Korea and Taiwan, driven by expectations related to AI demand [6]. - Risks for emerging market stocks include potential global economic slowdowns and the possibility of a stronger US dollar if expectations for US interest rate cuts diminish, which could lead to temporary adjustments in these markets [8].

智通财经APP获悉，在日本国债市场剧烈波动、日元承压之际，投资者正将目光投向一个潜在的"关键 答案"，规模高达1.8万亿美元的日本政府养老投资基金(GPIF)。 不过，GPIF也指出，在例行评估周期之间，基金仍可能根据需要重新审视战略配置。2014年，GPIF曾 在日本央行扩大量化宽松后，提前宣布重大资产配置调整。 作为全球最大的养老基金之一，同时也是日本机构投资者的重要风向标，市场人士认为，GPIF若提高 对日本国债(JGB)的资产配置比例，可能有助于遏制近期收益率飙升，并在一定程度上支撑日元走势。 分析人士指出，这一调整可能伴随GPIF降低海外债券，尤其是美国国债的配置目标，从而减少资金外 流压力，缓解日元抛售。 GPIF方面拒绝就任何可能的调整置评。尽管该基金已于2025年完成例行的五年一次资产配置评估，在 上周日本国债市场"崩盘"之后，市场开始讨论其是否可能提前重新审视投资组合结构，尤其是在政府可 能干预汇市以支撑日元的信号浮现之际。 Spectra Markets总裁、前外汇交易员Brent Donnelly表示："最直接的解决方案，就是GPIF卖出海外债 券、买入日本国债。GPIF目前持有约400 ...

Core Insights - The National Pension Service (NPS) of South Korea is significantly reducing its overseas investment targets while increasing support for domestic assets, primarily to address currency volatility and leverage the strong performance of the Korean stock market [1][2]. Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategy - NPS plans to lower its overseas stock investment target from 38.9% to 37.2% by 2026, while raising its domestic stock allocation from 14.4% to 14.9%, resulting in a reduction of approximately $20 billion in overseas stock holdings compared to previous plans [1][3]. - The adjustment reflects a strategic shift to retain more domestic assets, with NPS not planning to sell domestic stocks or increase overseas stock purchases [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Responses - The Korean stock market, particularly the Kospi index, has surged over 95% in the past year due to increased demand for artificial intelligence and semiconductors, leading to a risk of forced selling to maintain asset allocation ratios [2][4]. - NPS's domestic stock risk exposure reached 17.9% as of last October, exceeding the set target and nearing the upper limit of strategic flexibility [4]. Group 3: Regulatory and Market Stability Measures - The Bank of Korea is closely monitoring NPS's asset allocation changes and foreign exchange hedging strategies to stabilize the foreign exchange market [4]. - NPS has decided to temporarily suspend rebalancing operations to avoid negative impacts on the local stock and foreign exchange markets, allowing for some deviation from asset allocation targets to maintain overall market stability [5].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the banking sector and the phenomenon of "deposit migration" in the context of the Chinese economy from 2022 to 2025, highlighting the impact of low interest rates on asset allocation adjustments [1][5][15]. Key Points and Arguments - **Excess Savings Formation**: Between 2022 and 2025, residents are expected to accumulate approximately 6 trillion yuan in excess savings, with a high savings tendency of around 21% in 2025, indicating that investment and consumption marginal tendencies have not significantly improved [1][5][4]. - **Deposit Maturity Estimates**: The estimated maturity scale of residents' fixed-term deposits for 2026 is about 75 trillion yuan, with 67 trillion yuan maturing in one year or more, which is higher than the market's average estimate of around 50 trillion yuan [6][1]. - **Impact of Mortgage Rate Cuts**: The reduction in mortgage rates is expected to decrease the prepayment amount to approximately 3 trillion yuan in 2025, alleviating the pressure on borrowers to repay loans early due to lower borrowing costs [7][8]. - **Financial Disintermediation**: Despite the existence of financial disintermediation, the majority of funds (93% in 2024) remain within the banking system, limiting the actual impact on financial markets [10][1]. - **Large Maturity Amounts**: In the first quarter of 2026, a significant amount of large fixed-term deposits is expected to mature, reaching 29 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of about 4 trillion yuan [11][1]. - **Comparison with Previous Economic Cycles**: The current low-interest-rate environment has led to a significant accumulation of excess savings, with the ratio of deposits to A-share market value being high, similar to 2017 and 2021. However, the current Producer Price Index (PPI) remains in negative growth, and corporate profitability recovery is weaker compared to previous cycles [12][13]. Additional Important Insights - **Slow Deposit Activation**: While there is a slight recovery in both corporate and individual demand deposits, the overall activation of deposits is slow, with external capital inflows into the stock market not fully forming a sustained trend [14][2]. - **Market Narrative vs. Reality**: The current market narrative regarding deposit migration does not necessarily indicate an increase in risk appetite. Historical data shows that over 90% of deposits remain in the banking system, and the focus should be on the direction of the 6 trillion yuan in excess savings, which depends on a substantial change in residents' risk preferences [15][16].

荷兰合作银行资深策略师PhilipMarey表示，美联储可能在2026年11月前将利率调整至中性水平或更低。货币政策效果存在滞后性， 相关调整需提前进行以在特定时间点产生影响。预计到2026年9月，利率可能降至2.75%-3.00%，相当于三次25基点的降息。这一预 期高于官方点阵图目前显示的2026年仅降息一次的预测。 美联储最近降息决议中，两位政策制定者提出不同意见。一位认为在关键经济数据报告延迟后，应等待更多信息再做出进一步决 策；另一位表达了对通胀水平的担忧。贵金属在低利率环境中通常表现较好，因其不提供利息收益。 今年以来黄金价格累计涨幅超过60%，白银表现更为强劲，价格相比年初实现翻倍。两者均有望创下数十年来最佳年度表现。 这轮价格上涨受全球央行持续增加黄金储备推动。机构投资者调整资产配置，将部分资金从主权债券和货币资产转向黄金，提供重 要支撑。行业统计数据显示，今年以来除5月外，黄金ETF持仓量每月均上升。 高盛集团分析师预计，央行持续购买以及私人投资者在货币政策宽松背景下增加黄金ETF投资，将继续推动金价上行。他们重申对 2026年央行月均购买量的预测，指出央行购买行为呈现"多年期趋势"，显示长 ...