重大事件 1）中国具有针对性的稀土出口管制措施，新增对钼、锰、铽、铑、镭五种关键稀土元 素的管制，并规定只要产品含中国稀土原料，无论是否出口均需许可。2）美国总统特朗普 表示将于11月1日起对中国加征100%的额外关税并管制所有关键软件的出口，以此回应中国 实施稀土出口管制。3）特朗普政府正加大力度，将联邦政府对企业的拨款转换为股权，以 保障美国关键矿产和半导体供应链的安全，旨在减少对中国的依赖。以下公司与此次战略投 报告要点： 期间（2025.9.29-2025.10.12）市场回顾 1）海外AI芯片指数期间上涨2.66%，只有博通小幅度下跌3%，其余成分股均出现上 涨。2）国内AI芯片指数下跌0.6%，其中通富微电涨幅超20%，兆易创新与澜起科技涨幅超 过10%。3）英伟达映射指数上涨0.2%，相关产业链公司股票多数出现下滑的情况。4）服务 器ODM指数上涨5.8%，成分股大都呈现上涨情况，其中Wistron、超微以及Wiwynn涨幅超 10%。Quanta下跌23.1%，为唯一下跌成分股。5）存储芯片指数上涨12.2%，近期存储芯片 板块受AI需求驱动持续活跃，但企业级需求增长与供应链调整导致市场波动加 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the Taiwan ODM/Brands sector, particularly in the AI servers and PCs supply chain, with a specific emphasis on companies such as Hon Hai, Wistron, Quanta, Asus, AVC, and Wiwynn. Key Points and Arguments Revenue Growth Expectations - **Month-over-Month (MoM) Growth**: - Average revenue growth for the 10 companies is projected at **16%** in September, **-1%** in October, and **0%** in November 2025, with Hon Hai expected to see a **33%** MoM increase in September due to new smartphone models [3][17]. - Compal and Asus are also expected to experience MoM growth of **28%** and **17%**, respectively, driven by customer demand at the end of the September quarter [3]. - **Year-over-Year (YoY) Growth**: - Average revenue growth is anticipated at **31%** in September, **29%** in October, and **32%** in November 2025, primarily due to the ramp-up of rack-level AI servers and increased penetration of liquid cooling technology [4]. Company-Specific Insights - **Hon Hai**: - Expected to achieve **NT$2.0 trillion** in revenues for 3Q25, reflecting a **9% YoY** and **13% QoQ** growth, supported by AI server demand and new smartphone launches [17]. - September revenues are projected to grow **33% MoM** and **10% YoY** [18]. - **Wistron**: - Anticipated to see **53% YoY** growth in September, driven by rising demand for ASIC AI servers [4]. - **AVC**: - Expected to grow **90% YoY** and **22% QoQ** in 3Q25, with September revenues projected at **NT$36 billion** [39]. - The company is benefiting from the increasing adoption of liquid cooling technology, which is expected to contribute significantly to its revenue [39]. - **Wiwynn**: - Projected to achieve **141% YoY** growth in 3Q25, with September revenues expected to normalize to **NT$69 billion**, still reflecting a **100% YoY** increase [48]. - **Quanta**: - Expected to see a **19% YoY** growth in 3Q25, with revenues ramping up from September due to new AI server models [23][25]. Market Trends - The AI server market is experiencing mixed growth trends, with some companies like Hon Hai gaining market share while others may face challenges due to model transitions [3]. - The penetration rate of liquid cooling technology is rising, which is expected to drive growth in companies like AVC [39]. Risks and Challenges - Key risks identified include: - Slower-than-expected ramp-up of AI server business [21][47]. - Weaker-than-expected performance in electric vehicle (EV) solutions and competition in consumer electronics [22]. - Potential challenges in the recovery of general server demand and increased competition in the server ODM market [55]. Additional Important Information - The conference highlighted the importance of new product cycles and technological advancements in driving revenue growth across the sector. - Analysts maintain a positive outlook on companies like Hon Hai, AVC, and Wiwynn, with buy ratings reflecting confidence in their growth trajectories [2][39][54].

Summary of Investor Presentation on Greater China Technology Hardware: AI Tech Industry Overview - The presentation focuses on the Greater China Technology Hardware sector, particularly in AI technology hardware upgrades [4][5][6] - The overall industry view is categorized as "In-Line" [1] Core Insights and Arguments - **AI GPU and ASIC Server Upgrades**: There are significant opportunities in AI GPU and ASIC server/rack design upgrades, with major design upgrades anticipated for the GB300, Vera Rubin platform, and Kyber architecture [4][5] - **Enhanced Computing Power**: AI ASIC servers are expected to enhance computing power and increase rack density, with demand growth projected for 2026-2027 [4][5] - **Power Solutions**: Upgrades to 800V HVDC power architecture and the growing adoption of liquid cooling solutions are highlighted as key trends [4][5] - **PCB/Substrate Capacity Expansion**: A wave of capacity expansion in PCB/substrate is necessary to support ongoing design upgrades [4][5] - **Data Network Improvements**: Upgrades in data and power interconnects will lead to increased data network transmission speed and capacity [4][5] - **Consumer Electronics Demand**: Demand in consumer electronics remains lukewarm, with anticipation for upcoming foldable iPhone models in the second half of 2026 [4][5] - **AI PC Proliferation**: The proliferation of AI PCs is expected to take time, indicating a gradual market adoption [4][5] - **Supply Chain Reorientation**: The status of supply chain reorientation and its potential impacts are noted as important considerations [4][5] Key Stock Ideas - **AI Server Components**: Companies such as Delta Electronics, AVC, BizLink, King Slide, Chenbro, and Gold Circuits are identified as key players in AI server components [4][5] - **AI Server ODM/OEMs**: Wistron, Hon Hai/FII, Quanta, Lenovo, and Accton are highlighted as significant ODM/OEMs in the AI server space [4][5] Valuation Comparison - A detailed valuation comparison of various companies within the sector is provided, including metrics such as EPS, P/E ratios, P/B ratios, and trading volumes [5] - Notable companies include: - **Delta Electronics**: Closing price of 942.00 with a target of 1111.0 and a P/E ratio of 21.05 for 2025 [5] - **Hon Hai**: Closing price of 226.50 with a target of 250.0 and a P/E ratio of 13.83 for 2025 [5] - **Foxconn Tech**: Closing price of 70.60 with a target of 54.00 and a P/E ratio of 2.93 for 2025 [5] Additional Important Points - The report emphasizes the potential for share price upside in the context of the discussed upgrades and market trends [4][5] - The overall sentiment reflects cautious optimism regarding the future of AI technology hardware in Greater China, with specific attention to the evolving landscape of consumer electronics and server technology [4][5]

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing's stock has surged 135% in a month, indicating a shift towards commercialization in the quantum computing sector [2] - The company is positioned for significant growth potential despite its recent stock increase, driven by strong fundamental drivers [3] Company Developments - Rigetti's modular architecture, utilizing chiplet models, addresses scaling challenges in quantum computing, enhancing reliability and performance [4][5] - Recent purchase orders and contracts, including a $5.7 million order for Novera systems and a $5.8 million contract with the U.S. Air Force, signal a move towards commercialization [6] - A strategic partnership with Quanta, involving a $100 million commitment, provides manufacturing expertise and capital for large-scale commercialization [7] Market Position and Growth Potential - The quantum computing market is projected to grow from $1.6 billion in 2025 to $7.3 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 35% [9] - Rigetti's technology is uniquely equipped to capture market share as the industry transitions from research to commercial applications [10] Government and Revenue Stability - Government contracts, such as those from DARPA and the U.S. Air Force, provide credibility and stable revenue streams for Rigetti [8] - The company currently holds $426 million in cash with minimal debt, enhancing its financial stability [7]

Market Overview - The overseas AI chip index increased by 0.54% this week, with Marvell rising over 10% while Broadcom fell by 3.0% [2] - The domestic AI chip index rose by 5.2%, with Langchao Technology increasing over 10%, while Rockchip and Cambricon experienced slight declines [2] - The Nvidia mapping index decreased by 3.2%, with Wolong Materials rising over 20% and Taicheng Technology falling close to 10% [2] - The server ODM index increased by 0.7%, with Wistron rising by 4.9%, the highest among its constituents, while Quanta continued its downward trend with a 7.5% decline [2] - The storage chip index rose by 6.1%, with Jucheng shares increasing over 50% and Demingli rising by 22.2%, while Baiwei Storage and Jiangbolong both saw increases over 10% [2] - The power semiconductor index increased by 7.0%, with all constituent stocks showing an upward trend; the A-share Apple index rose by 1.5%, while the Hong Kong Apple index fell by 0.6% [2] Industry Data - The high bandwidth memory (HBM) market is expected to grow nearly threefold between 2024 and 2026, with HBM3E being the dominant product and HBM4 set to enter the market in 2026, indicating a rapid pace of technological iteration [3] - The global VR headset market continues to decline due to weak consumer demand, while the AR smart glasses market shows strong growth, with shipments increasing by 50% year-on-year in the first half of the year [3] - Despite pressures on shipment growth, the average selling price of smartphones globally is expected to rise steadily, with market revenue growth outpacing shipment growth [3] Major Events - Yangtze Memory Technologies, a leading flash memory manufacturer in China, is actively seeking technological breakthroughs and plans to develop key technologies for HBM production, considering using its new Wuhan factory for DRAM chip production [4] - TSMC plans to increase its 2nm process pricing by 50%, putting significant cost pressure on its customers, while Samsung Electronics intends to offer 2nm foundry services at two-thirds the price of TSMC to capture market share [4] - OpenAI has signed an agreement with Apple's assembler, Luxshare Precision, to jointly develop a consumer device that can collaborate deeply with AI models [4]

Summary of Global Server Market and AI Server Insights Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global server market, particularly the AI server segment, with projections extending to 2027E. The analysis includes various types of servers such as ASIC AI servers, AI training servers, AI inferencing servers, general servers, and HPC servers [1][14]. Key Insights Market Projections - The global server market is projected to grow significantly, with total revenues expected to reach **US$359 billion**, **US$474 billion**, and **US$563 billion** in 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of **42%**, **32%**, and **19%** [14][30]. - AI server shipments are expected to increase, with **10 million**, **14 million**, and **17 million** AI chips required in 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E, respectively. The contribution of ASIC shipments is projected to rise from **38%** in 2025E to **45%** in 2027E [1][8]. AI Server Segment Growth - High power AI servers (powered by **500 TFlops+ ASIC and GPUs**) are forecasted to see a **21%** and **39%** increase in volume estimates for 2025E and 2026E, respectively. Inferencing AI servers are expected to grow by **3%** and **5%** in the same years [3][11]. - Full rack AI servers are estimated to ship **19,000** units in 2025E, increasing to **67,000** units by 2027E, with a total addressable market (TAM) of **US$54 billion**, **US$157 billion**, and **US$232 billion** for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [11][30]. Cloud Service Provider (CSP) Capital Expenditure - Leading US CSPs are projected to increase their capital expenditure (capex) by **67%**, **23%**, and **15%** year-over-year from 2025E to 2027E. In contrast, leading Chinese CSPs are expected to grow their capex by **55%**, **8%**, and **6%** in the same period [8][24][27]. AI Chip Demand - The demand for AI chips is expected to reach **9,990 thousand**, **13,631 thousand**, and **16,551 thousand** units for training and inferencing combined in 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E, respectively. The mix of GPU and ASIC chips is projected to shift, with GPUs making up **62%** in 2025E and decreasing to **55%** by 2027E, while ASICs will increase from **38%** to **45%** [3][20]. Additional Insights Revenue Breakdown - The revenue breakdown for AI servers indicates that training servers will generate **US$189.6 billion**, **US$294.6 billion**, and **US$370.6 billion** in 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E, respectively. High power AI servers are expected to generate **US$135.9 billion**, **US$137.9 billion**, and **US$139 billion** in the same years [30]. - General servers are projected to see revenues of **US$133.7 billion**, **US$140.2 billion**, and **US$146.5 billion** from 2025E to 2027E, indicating a recovery in the general server market [30]. Market Dynamics - The growth in AI applications and increased cloud capex are driving the demand for AI servers. OpenAI's user base has quadrupled to **700 million** weekly active users, indicating a broader adoption of AI technologies [3][11]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights key players in the AI server market, including ODMs like Wiwynn, Wistron, and Hon Hai, as well as companies involved in silicon photonics and liquid cooling technologies [2]. This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed outlook on the global server market, emphasizing the significant growth potential in the AI server segment driven by technological advancements and increased cloud investments.

Summary of Datacenter Market Insights – Part 1: Overall Servers Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Datacenter Market** within the **Hardware Technology** sector in the **Asia Pacific** region, specifically analyzing server shipments and trends in 2Q25 [1][9]. Key Insights - **Total Server Shipments**: Global server shipments reached **4.2 million units** in 2Q25, reflecting a **16% year-over-year (y/y)** growth and a **7% quarter-over-quarter (q/q)** increase. The growth is primarily driven by cloud demand, with expectations for continued growth in AI server shipments throughout 2025 [2][16]. - **AI Server Demand**: AI server yields are improving, with significant increases in average selling prices (ASPs) for major Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) and Original Design Manufacturers (ODMs). High-value server shipments for Dell increased by **181% q/q**, while its overall server shipments declined by **4% q/q** [3][15]. - **Market Dynamics**: The demand for AI servers remains robust, particularly for GB200 racks, which saw shipments grow from **1.1k in 1Q** to approximately **4.9k in 2Q**. Expectations for 3Q shipments are projected to reach **8-9k** [5][6]. - **Regional Performance**: The **US** market outperformed others with a **32% y/y** increase in shipments, while regions like **Japan** and **Rest of the World (RoW)** saw declines of **12% y/y** and **13% y/y**, respectively [12][20]. - **Segment Performance**: High-end server shipments grew **399% y/y** in 2Q, mid-range servers increased by **85% y/y**, and entry-level servers saw a modest growth of **8% y/y**. This trend aligns with the ramp-up of AI server demand [13][14]. Vendor Performance - **ODM Direct Shipments**: ODM direct shipments increased by **46% y/y** and **3% q/q** in 2Q25, with ASPs rising to approximately **US$34.3k**, driven by AI server contributions [15][16]. - **Market Share Changes**: ODM direct market share decreased to **45.4%**, down **2 percentage points** from the previous quarter. Dell's market share fell to **8.2%**, while HP's share increased to **7.7%** [16]. Investment Preferences - The report suggests a preference for components over ODMs/OEMs, highlighting companies such as **Hon Hai**, **Wistron**, **Quanta**, and **Giga-Byte** as favorable investment opportunities [7]. Additional Considerations - **Tariff Impact**: The report notes that tariffs have influenced both enterprise and cloud demand, with expectations of a **5-10% y/y** decline in full-year enterprise demand [2][6]. - **Future Outlook**: Overall momentum for general servers is expected to slow in the second half of 2025, influenced by earlier pull-ins due to tariffs, although actual shipment momentum appears stronger than previously anticipated [6][16]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data from the conference call regarding the datacenter market and server shipments, providing a comprehensive overview of current trends and future expectations.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Global Semiconductors, Hardware, Internet & Software** industry, specifically the **AI Server and Edge AI** market for **3Q25** [2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Investment in Data Centers**: Total investment in upcoming and under-construction data centers is approximately **US$770 billion**. This includes significant projects like Oracle's multi-billion-dollar cloud contracts and a **4.5GW** investment for Stargate in the U.S. [3][27]. 2. **Capex Growth**: Consensus estimates for **2026 capex** from major cloud service providers (CSPs) have been raised by nearly **20%** compared to previous estimates, projecting total capex to grow at a **26% CAGR** from **2024-2027**, reaching around **US$500 billion** by 2027 [3][26]. 3. **Server Market Projections**: The global server market is expected to reach **US$450 billion** in 2026, with high-end GPU AI server shipments projected to grow at **45% CAGR** from **2024-2026** [4][39]. 4. **ASIC Adoption**: ASICs are projected to comprise nearly **40%** of total CoWoS-based AI chip shipments by **2026**, with increasing adoption among external customers [4][41]. 5. **High-End GPU Server Growth**: High-end GPU servers are expected to grow approximately **55%** in **2025** and **35%** in **2026** [4][39]. Financial Performance of Suppliers 1. **Supplier Performance**: The financial performance of suppliers in the AI supply chain is improving, with companies like Wiwynn and Accton projected to see revenue growth of **130%** and **111%** YoY respectively [43]. 2. **Broadcom's Orders**: Broadcom has received over **$10 billion** in new orders, indicating strong demand for ASICs [6][41]. Innovations in Edge AI 1. **AI Capabilities in Devices**: Innovations in Edge AI are evident across various devices, with Android phones and Apple products integrating more AI features. Gartner forecasts AI PC penetration to rise from **15%** last year to approximately **80%** by **2027** [7][28]. Company Ratings and Price Targets 1. **Chroma**: Rated **Outperform** with a price target of **NT$570** [11]. 2. **Delta**: Rated **Outperform** with a price target of **NT$630** [12]. 3. **Unimicron**: Rated **Outperform** with a price target of **NT$170** [13]. 4. **Quanta**: Rated **Underperform** with a price target of **NT$240** [14]. 5. **NVIDIA**: Rated **Outperform** with a price target of **$225** [20]. Important but Overlooked Content 1. **AI Funding Trends**: AI funding in the primary market remains strong, with **$40 billion** raised in **2Q25**, accounting for about **45%** of global startup funding [28]. 2. **Future Monitoring**: Key events to watch include capex guidance from CSPs and the progress of major projects like Stargate and Oracle's data center build-out [28]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections from the conference call, highlighting the growth trajectory of the AI server market and the financial performance of key players in the industry.

Summary of the Investor Presentation on Greater China Technology Hardware Industry Overview - The focus is on the Greater China Technology Hardware sector, particularly in relation to AI demand growth and design value upgrades, which are expected to drive profit increases [4][5][6]. Core Insights - Preference for AI server components over AI server Original Design Manufacturers (ODMs) due to better execution and production flexibility [4][6]. - Consumer electronics demand is described as lukewarm, indicating a potential slowdown in this segment [5]. - Significant opportunities are identified in AI GPU and ASIC server/rack design upgrades, with major design upgrades anticipated for platforms such as GB300, Vera Rubin, and Kyber architecture [6]. - AI ASIC servers are expected to enhance computing power and increase rack density, with demand growth anticipated in 2026-2027 [6]. - Transition to 800V High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) power architecture is noted as a power solution upgrade [6]. - Adoption of liquid-to-air solutions is highlighted for faster deployment in server setups [6]. - Expansion of PCB/substrate capacity is necessary to support ongoing design upgrades [6]. - Upcoming foldable iPhone models are anticipated in the second half of 2026, which may influence market dynamics [6]. - The proliferation of AI PCs is expected to take time, indicating a gradual market shift [6]. - The status of supply chain reorientation and its potential impacts are acknowledged, suggesting ongoing adjustments in the industry [6]. Key Stock Ideas - Recommended stocks in the AI server components category include Delta Electronics, AVC, Gold Circuits, Lotes, Unimicron, and LandMark [6]. - Recommended stocks in the AI server ODMs category include Hon Hai/FII, Wistron, Wiwynn, Quanta, and Lenovo [6]. Valuation Comparison - A detailed valuation comparison of various companies within the Greater China Technology Hardware sector is provided, including metrics such as closing price, market cap, EPS, P/E ratio, P/B ratio, P/S ratio, EV/EBITDA, ROE, ROA, trading volume, and yield [8]. - Notable companies include Lite-On Tech, Delta, Hon Hai, Foxconn Tech, and others, with varying ratings and target prices [8]. Additional Considerations - The report emphasizes the importance of considering Morgan Stanley Research as one of several factors in investment decision-making, highlighting potential conflicts of interest [2].

Market Overview - September is historically a weaker month, but the S&P 500 is at new highs, supported by banks, discretionary spending, and industrials [2][3] - There may be shifting macro winds globally, requiring attention to potential global growth reacceleration [3] Global Growth Indicators - Copper has broken out, and the Australian dollar is turning up, suggesting positive momentum for risk assets [4] - Commodity currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars indicate positive economic momentum [4] - The material sector is only 2% of the S&P, and Chinese stocks and Nikkei have recently broken out, suggesting the global growth renition is still early [5] Sector Analysis and Investment Opportunities - Copper stocks (Freeport, Rio, Valet) and steel (Cleveland Cliffs) are showing signs of resurgence [7] - Consumer discretionary is performing well, indicating the resurgence in materials/commodities isn't at the expense of the consumer [8][9] - Power stocks (CEG, Vistra, GE Vernova) and AI-adjacent infrastructure stocks (Quanta) are recovering after a pause [9] AI and Power Sector - The AI power data center trade is back in gear after a 12-week pause [9][10] Federal Reserve Considerations - The potential impact of Federal Reserve (The Fed) actions on global growth, rates, and the dollar needs to be considered [6]