证券研究报告 | 2026年02月09日 美元债双周报（26 年第 6 周） 弱于大市 景气回升难掩财政忧虑，美债曲线陡峭化博弈加剧 美国 1 月 ISM 数据显示，制造业与服务业景气度同步回升，经济动能明显改 善。制造业 PMI 从 47.9 大幅跃升至 52.6，显著高于预期，重返扩张区 间并创近几年新高，新订单与产出强劲反弹是主要拉动因素，显示企业 补库存与需求修复加快。不过，就业指数仍低于荣枯线，制造业用工恢 复偏慢，叠加物价支付指数回升，反映成本压力再度抬头。服务业方面， PMI 维持在 53.8 的阶段性高位，扩张态势稳健，商业活动表现较好，但 新订单增速放缓，就业几乎停滞于荣枯线附近，显示需求与用工修复并 不同步。同时，价格指数走高，提示服务业通胀压力有所回升。整体而 言，美国经济开年景气度改善明确，但就业恢复偏弱、成本压力上行， 结构性特征依然突出。 市场避险情绪升温，但美债需求并不强劲。在上周市场对美联储换帅导致 的流动性冲击以及 AI 对软件的替代影响的担忧而出现抛售时，美债价 格上涨幅度却相当温和，而且收益率曲线显著趋陡，10 年-2 年期限利 差逼近多年高位。这表明尽管市场存在避险情绪 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The company is a high-quality private coal enterprise transitioning from a single coal producer to a diversified coal producer, with a focus on expanding its product range and regional presence [1][15] - The main coal mine, Dafenpu, has strong profitability and is a key driver of revenue and cash flow growth [1][32] - The company is expanding its coal business into coking coal with two new mines under construction, which are expected to enhance revenue [2][46] - The company is also diversifying into non-coal mining, with a significant project in Sierra Leone expected to contribute additional revenue [3][54] - The company has a strong dividend policy, with increasing frequency and rates of dividends reflecting its solid financial performance [4][26] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a private integrated coal enterprise listed in Hong Kong since March 2012, with a high concentration of ownership [1][15] - It operates several coal mines and is expanding into international markets, particularly in South Africa [15][52] Coal Business Expansion - The company is transitioning from a focus on thermal coal to a broader range of coal products, including coking coal, with new mines expected to start production in 2026 [2][46] - The Dafenpu mine has a production capacity of 6.5 million tons per year and is recognized for its high-quality coal [1][32] Financial Performance - The company has shown resilience in its financials, with projected revenues and net profits expected to grow in the coming years despite market fluctuations [4][22] - The company’s dividend payout ratio has increased, with a forecasted dividend yield of 4.8% based on recent share prices [4][26] Non-Coal Ventures - The company is pursuing non-coal mining opportunities, including a titanium project in Sierra Leone, which is expected to generate significant additional profits [3][54] - The project is structured in phases, with the first phase expected to contribute approximately 330 million yuan in gross profit [57] Diversification into Other Businesses - The company is diversifying into agriculture, real estate, and property management, with several projects underway that are expected to enhance overall revenue [59][61] - The real estate segment includes multiple high-quality projects across various cities, contributing to the company's revenue diversification strategy [59][61]

最新定期报告显示，港股红利低波ETF（159569）重仓股包括中远海控、东方海外国际、兖矿能源、海 丰国际、兖煤澳大利亚、万洲国际、中国神华、远东宏信、中国海洋石油、中国石油化工股份，持仓占 比如下。 流动性方面，截止2月9日，港股红利低波ETF（159569）近20个交易日累计成交金额9.68亿元，日均成 交金额4838.43万元；今年以来，26个交易日，累计成交金额11.47亿元，日均成交金额4410.60万元。 2月9日，景顺长城国证港股通红利低波动率ETF（159569）收盘涨1.21%，成交额7825.73万元。 港股红利低波ETF（159569）现任基金经理为龚丽丽、汪洋。龚丽丽自2024年8月29日管理（或拟管 理）该基金，任职期内收益45.41%；汪洋自2025年8月13日管理（或拟管理）该基金，任职期内收益 3.51%。 港股红利低波ETF（159569）成立于2024年8月14日，基金全称为景顺长城国证港股通红利低波动率交 易型开放式指数证券投资基金，基金简称为景顺长城国证港股通红利低波动率ETF。该基金管理费率每 年0.50%，托管费率每年0.08%。港股红利低波ETF（159569）业 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月09日 美元债双周报（26 年第 6 周） 弱于大市 景气回升难掩财政忧虑，美债曲线陡峭化博弈加剧 美国 1 月 ISM 数据显示，制造业与服务业景气度同步回升，经济动能明显改 善。制造业 PMI 从 47.9 大幅跃升至 52.6，显著高于预期，重返扩张区 间并创近几年新高，新订单与产出强劲反弹是主要拉动因素，显示企业 补库存与需求修复加快。不过，就业指数仍低于荣枯线，制造业用工恢 复偏慢，叠加物价支付指数回升，反映成本压力再度抬头。服务业方面， PMI 维持在 53.8 的阶段性高位，扩张态势稳健，商业活动表现较好，但 新订单增速放缓，就业几乎停滞于荣枯线附近，显示需求与用工修复并 不同步。同时，价格指数走高，提示服务业通胀压力有所回升。整体而 言，美国经济开年景气度改善明确，但就业恢复偏弱、成本压力上行， 结构性特征依然突出。 市场避险情绪升温，但美债需求并不强劲。在上周市场对美联储换帅导致 的流动性冲击以及 AI 对软件的替代影响的担忧而出现抛售时，美债价 格上涨幅度却相当温和，而且收益率曲线显著趋陡，10 年-2 年期限利 差逼近多年高位。这表明尽管市场存在避险情绪 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the coal industry investment rating to "Leading the Market - A" [2] Core Viewpoints - The coal supply is expected to contract as mines announce production halts ahead of the Spring Festival, leading to a limited increase in downstream demand for procurement [5] - The financial performance of coal companies shows room for improvement, with manageable supply chain risks [2][6] - The dynamics of the coal market are influenced by external factors such as Indonesia's export suspension and geopolitical tensions, which may lead to short-term volatility [6] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Dynamics - Thermal coal prices are stabilizing but trending weakly due to reduced production as mines prepare for the holiday. As of February 6, the spot price for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 697 RMB/ton, with a weekly change of +0.29% [3] - Coking coal production remains focused on safety, with downstream steel mills purchasing based on demand. The price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,660 RMB/ton, down 7.78% week-on-week [4] 2. Supply and Demand - The total coal inventory at nine ports in the Bohai Rim is 20.424 million tons, reflecting a weekly decrease of 16.84% [3] - The operating rate of sample steel mills is 79.55%, with a slight increase of 0.53 percentage points week-on-week, indicating stable production levels [4] 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies benefiting from the revaluation of physical assets due to a loosening of the US credit system. Recommended stocks include Guanghui Energy, Panjiang Coal, Shanxi Coking Coal, and China Shenhua Energy [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring downstream replenishment demand and market supply conditions in the coming weeks [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF managed by Huatai-PB has experienced a decrease in both share count and total assets since the beginning of the year, indicating potential challenges in attracting investment [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520890) closed at a 0.67% increase with a trading volume of 41.35 million yuan on February 9 [1]. - The fund's management fee is set at 0.50% annually, while the custody fee is 0.10% annually [1]. - As of February 6, the fund's latest share count was 83.08 million, with a total asset size of 126 million yuan, reflecting a 12.63% decrease in shares and a 7.15% decrease in total assets since December 31, 2025 [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Trading Activity - Over the past 20 trading days, the cumulative trading amount for the fund reached 569 million yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 28.44 million yuan [1]. - Since the beginning of the year, the fund has recorded a cumulative trading amount of 714 million yuan over 26 trading days, averaging 27.45 million yuan per day [1]. Group 3: Fund Holdings - The current fund manager, Li Qian, has managed the fund since September 4, 2024, achieving a return of 49.36% during her tenure [2]. - Major holdings in the fund include Shougang Resources (3.77%), Yanzhou Coal Mining (2.70%), and Hang Seng Bank (2.63%), among others, with the total holdings reflecting a diversified portfolio [2].

上市公司：甘肃能化（000552），新大洲Ａ（000571），冀中能源（000937），蓝焰控股（000968）， 山西焦煤（000983），电投能源（002128），首华燃气（300483），郑州煤电（600121），兰花科创 （600123），兖矿能源（600188），晋控煤业（601001），中国神华（601088），昊华能源 （601101），陕西煤业（601225） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国采矿业市场竞争态势及投资方向分析报告》 2019-2025年采矿业企业数统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 2025年1-12月，采矿业企业数（以下数据涉及的企业，均为规模以上工业企业，从2011年起，规模以上 工业企业起点标准由原来的年主营业务收入500万元提高到年主营业务收入2000万元）为12866个，和上 年同期相比，增 ...

从 内 地 政 策 实 践 展 望 2026 年 施 策 重 点 股 票 环球市场动态 周五 A 股震荡小幅下跌，化工股延 续强势；港股集体下跌，科技股继 续承压；欧洲股市上涨，市场情绪 在消化宏观消息后有所回暖；美股 大幅反弹，道指首次突破 5 万点， 科技股获得大量逢低买盘。 外 汇 / 商 品 伊朗称核谈判是好开始，但市场忧 虑谈判未能降低冲突风险，周五油 价先跌后翻红。美元指数偏软，以 及市场对美伊会谈的忧虑，支持金 价回升。 固 定 收 益 上周五美股及贵金属市场回暖，美 债获利回吐。密歇根大学消费者信 心意外升至半年新高。高市早苗取 得历史性选举胜利，日本国债收益 率上涨。本周将有非农及 CPI数据， 和美债标售。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2026 年 2 月 9 日 恩智浦 (NXPI US; 224.32 美元; 目标价: 257 美元) 汽车市场缓慢复苏。公司 2025 年四季度当季汽车 市场营收以及毛利率略低于预期，引起市场对于复苏节奏的担忧。然而，公司指出过去 90 天积压订单、分销库存等 内部信号均 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Invesco Great Wall National Index Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159569) experienced significant net redemptions recently, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards this fund [1][2]. Fund Performance - As of February 6, 2024, the fund's latest size is 476 million yuan, down from 480 million yuan the previous day, reflecting a net outflow of 4.18 million yuan, which is 0.87% of the previous day's size [1]. - Over the past five days, the fund faced net redemptions totaling 8.32 million yuan, ranking 39th out of 214 in cross-border ETF net outflows [1]. - Year-to-date, the fund's share count decreased by 3.44% from 349 million shares to 337 million shares, while its size increased by 2.20% [2]. Trading Activity - The fund recorded a cumulative trading volume of 919 million yuan over the last 20 trading days, with an average daily trading amount of 45.96 million yuan [2]. - In the current year, the fund has seen a total trading volume of 1.068 billion yuan over 25 trading days, averaging 42.74 million yuan per day [2]. Fund Management - The current fund managers are Gong Lili and Wang Yang, with Gong managing the fund since August 29, 2024, achieving a return of 46.69%, while Wang has managed it since August 13, 2025, with a return of 4.70% [2]. Top Holdings - The fund's top holdings include: - COSCO Shipping Holdings (8.86%) - Orient Overseas International (7.48%) - Yanzhou Coal Mining (5.65%) - Seaspan Corporation (4.52%) - Yancoal Australia (4.46%) - WH Group (3.76%) - China Shenhua Energy (3.63%) - Far East Horizon (3.39%) - CNOOC (3.27%) - Sinopec (3.26%) [2].

Group 1: Coal Prices - Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) price increased to 692 CNY/ton, up 1 CNY/ton week-on-week as of February 7 [1] - Datong thermal coal price (Q5500) decreased to 567 CNY/ton, down 1 CNY/ton week-on-week as of February 5 [1] - International thermal coal prices: Newcastle NEWC5500 at 76.3 USD/ton, up 1.5 USD/ton week-on-week; ARA6000 at 101.6 USD/ton, down 1.5 USD/ton [1] Group 2: Coking Coal Prices - Beijing Tangshan port coking coal price decreased to 1700 CNY/ton, down 80 CNY/ton week-on-week as of February 5 [2] - Linfen coking coal price decreased to 1570 CNY/ton, down 80 CNY/ton week-on-week as of February 6 [2] - Australian hard coking coal price at 265.6 USD/ton, up 1.5 USD/ton week-on-week as of February 5 [2] Group 3: Production and Consumption - Sample thermal coal mine capacity utilization at 87.5%, down 0.8 percentage points week-on-week; coking coal mine utilization at 86.67%, down 2.5 percentage points [2] - Coastal provinces' coal consumption decreased by 16.3 million tons/day, down 7.22% week-on-week as of February 4 [3] - Inland provinces' coal consumption decreased by 81.8 million tons/day, down 18.1% week-on-week as of February 4 [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - Current coal market is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with fundamental and policy support [4] - Indonesian government reduced coal production quotas by 40% to 70% compared to 2025 levels, impacting global coal supply [4] - Domestic coal supply is expected to remain constrained, with potential for price recovery due to demand resilience [5] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Coal sector remains attractive due to high performance, cash flow, and dividends; recommended to focus on quality coal companies [6] - Suggested companies include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yancoal Australia among others [6] - Emphasis on the importance of coal assets as they are undervalued and have high potential for appreciation [5]