花旗发布研报称，鉴于香港市场可供全球机构投资者选择的高质量饮料公司数量有限，该行首次覆盖东 鹏饮料（605499）(09980)，并给予"买入"评级，目标价408.8港元。 花旗对中国食品饮料行业的相对排序为东鹏饮料、农夫山泉(09633)及统一企业中国(00220)，均获"买 入"评级，至于康师傅(00322)则为"沽售"评级。 该行预测，东鹏饮料今明两年的净利润将分别增长27%和22%，是该行覆盖的中国消费品公司中增长最 快的企业之一。该行对东鹏饮料今明两年在新品类(包括运动饮料及其他饮料)的持续强劲增长，以及在 非广东市场的扩张持乐观看法。而东鹏饮料仍然是该行2026年中国消费领域的首选标的之一。 ...

该行预测，东鹏饮料今明两年的净利润将分别增长27%和22%，是该行覆盖的中国消费品公司中增长最 快的企业之一。该行对东鹏饮料今明两年在新品类(包括运动饮料及其他饮料)的持续强劲增长，以及在 非广东市场的扩张持乐观看法。而东鹏饮料仍然是该行2026年中国消费领域的首选标的之一。 智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，鉴于香港市场可供全球机构投资者选择的高质量饮料公司数量有 限，该行首次覆盖东鹏饮料(09980)，并给予"买入"评级，目标价408.8港元。 花旗对中国食品饮料行业的相对排序为东鹏饮料、农夫山泉(09633)及统一企业中国(00220)，均获"买 入"评级，至于康师傅(00322)则为"沽售"评级。 ...

花旗发表研报，首次覆盖东鹏饮料港股并给予"买入"评级，目标价为408.8港元。该行预测，东鹏饮料 今明两年的净利润将分别增长27%和22%，是该行覆盖的中国消费品公司中增长最快的企业之一。该行 对东鹏饮料今明两年在新品类(包括运动饮料及其他饮料)的持续强劲增长，以及在非广东市场的扩张持 乐观看法。 ...

盈利预测方面，该行预计东鹏饮料2025至27年各年预测净利润将分别实现32%、28%及22%的增长， 2025至2027年间的盈利复合年增长率料25%。 麦格理发布研报称，东鹏饮料（605499）(09980)是中国功能饮料行业的第二大参与者，按价值计市场 份额为23%；若按销量计，则为第一大参与者，份额达26.3%。该行相信，凭借其广泛的渠道渗透率和 高效管控的销售追踪系统，东鹏饮料能够继续扩大市场份额。该行因此首次覆盖并给予"跑赢大市"评 级，对其A股及H股目标价分别307元人民币与345港元。该估值基于预测2027年市盈率25倍，考虑到其 高达25%的两年盈利复合年增长率，该行认为此估值水平合理。 中国功能饮料的人均消费量为9.9升，而美国为54.9升，日本为21.9升，泰国为16.5升。根据研究机构估 计，功能饮料在2025年至2029年预测期间的复合年增长率为10.9%，而软饮料为5.9%。东鹏饮料是第二 大参与者，2024年价值市场份额为23%，仅次于红牛的24.7%，在能量饮料细分市场，东鹏和红牛的份 额分别为37%和31%。麦格理相信，凭借其渠道渗透力和销售效率，东鹏饮料能够继续扩大份额。 ...

盈利预测方面，该行预计东鹏饮料2025至27年各年预测净利润将分别实现32%、28%及22%的增长， 2025至2027年间的盈利复合年增长率料25%。 中国功能饮料的人均消费量为9.9升，而美国为54.9升，日本为21.9升，泰国为16.5升。根据研究机构估 计，功能饮料在2025年至2029年预测期间的复合年增长率为10.9%，而软饮料为5.9%。东鹏饮料是第二 大参与者，2024年价值市场份额为23%，仅次于红牛的24.7%，在能量饮料细分市场，东鹏和红牛的份 额分别为37%和31%。麦格理相信，凭借其渠道渗透力和销售效率，东鹏饮料能够继续扩大份额。 智通财经APP获悉，麦格理发布研报称，东鹏饮料(09980)是中国功能饮料行业的第二大参与者，按价值 计市场份额为23%；若按销量计，则为第一大参与者，份额达26.3%。该行相信，凭借其广泛的渠道渗 透率和高效管控的销售追踪系统，东鹏饮料能够继续扩大市场份额。该行因此首次覆盖并给予"跑赢大 市"评级，对其A股及H股目标价分别307元人民币与345港元。该估值基于预测2027年市盈率25倍，考虑 到其高达25%的两年盈利复合年增长率，该行认为此估值水平合理。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, particularly in the liquor segment, driven by increased market demand during the Spring Festival sales season and positive expectations for leading brands like Moutai [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The food and beverage ETF Huabao (515710) saw a price increase of 1.53%, with a peak intraday gain of 2.04% [1][2]. - Key stocks in the liquor sector, such as Dongpeng Beverage, Xin Dairy, and Jiugui Liquor, reported gains exceeding 4%, while Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao rose over 3% [1][3]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The rise in liquor stocks is attributed to the expanded market demand during the Spring Festival and optimistic expectations regarding Moutai's sales performance and quota policies [1][3]. - The current market environment has led to a renewed focus on the "certainty premium" and safe-haven attributes of high-end liquor, contributing to a rotation effect within the sector [1]. Group 3: Valuation Insights - The food and beverage sector is currently at a historical low in terms of valuation, with the food index's price-to-earnings ratio at 20.37, placing it in the 8.61% percentile of the last decade [3]. - The low valuation and improving market sentiment provide a favorable entry point for long-term investments in the sector [3].

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector continues to show strong performance, with the food and beverage ETF Huabao (515710) rising by 1.53% and reaching a peak intraday increase of 2.04% [1][7] - Major stocks in the liquor segment have surged, with Dongpeng Beverage increasing over 5%, and both New Dairy and Jiugui Liquor rising over 4%, while Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao have all seen increases of over 3% [1][7] Group 2 - Analysts attribute the rise in liquor stocks to increased market demand during the Spring Festival sales season, with optimistic expectations for Kweichow Moutai's "opening red" and quota policies [1][10] - The current valuation of the liquor sector is at historical lows, suggesting a favorable time for investment, with the food and beverage ETF Huabao's underlying index PE ratio at 20.37, positioned at the 8.61% percentile of the last decade [3][9] Group 3 - The outlook for the liquor sector is positive, as low valuations and released pessimistic expectations provide a safety margin for investment, with the sector's fundamentals nearing a bottom [10] - The food and beverage ETF Huabao primarily invests in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, with approximately 60% of its portfolio allocated to these stocks, and the top ten holdings include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [10]

- The report introduces a quantitative model framework for market trend analysis, focusing on five asset style stages: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and bankruptcy value. The model evaluates assets based on their intrinsic attributes and prioritizes them using the sequence of g > ROE > D, analyzing whether there are "good assets" and whether they are "expensive" [5][8][9] - The model incorporates key factors such as expected growth (gf), actual growth (g), profitability (ROE), high dividend (D), and bankruptcy value (B/P). Each factor is associated with specific market phases, e.g., expected growth is relevant across all phases, while profitability is emphasized during maturity phases [9][12] - The quantitative model has demonstrated strong historical performance, achieving an annualized return of 27.67% since 2009. It has shown consistent excess returns in most years, particularly post-2017, with limited effectiveness in years like 2011, 2012, and 2016 [19][22] - The model's backtesting results for specific years include notable excess returns, such as 51% in 2009, 36% in 2013, and 62% in 2022. However, it also recorded underperformance in years like 2011 (-11%) and 2014 (-4%) [22] - The report details six specific strategies derived from the model, each focusing on different factors: - **Expected Growth Strategy**: Selects industries with the highest analyst-forecasted growth rates. Recent recommendations include sectors like automotive sales, lithium equipment, and tungsten [38][39] - **Actual Growth Strategy**: Focuses on industries with the highest unexpected growth (△g). Current recommendations include photovoltaic equipment, insurance, and coal chemical sectors [40][41] - **Profitability Strategy**: Targets high-ROE industries with low valuations under the PB-ROE framework. Recommended sectors include copper, liquor, and non-dairy beverages [43][44] - **Quality Dividend Strategy**: Utilizes a DP+ROE scoring system to identify industries. Current recommendations include forestry, lithium equipment, and fiberglass [46][47] - **Value Dividend Strategy**: Employs a DP+BP scoring system. Recommended sectors include security, daily chemicals, and buses [49][50] - **Bankruptcy Value Strategy**: Focuses on industries with the lowest PB+SIZE scores. Current recommendations include automotive sales, ceramics, and cotton textiles [53][54]

深圳商报·读创客户端记者 张国锋 2月3日，东鹏饮料（集团）股份有限公司正式在香港主板上市（股票代码09980.HK），成为深圳市、 南山区2026年首家以"A+H"模式（即同时在内地A股和香港H股上市）登陆资本市场的企业。 作为中国功能饮料领军者，东鹏饮料精准把握行业发展趋势，稳居功能饮料赛道领跑地位，同时紧扣健 康化、细分化消费需求构建多元化产品矩阵，推行"1+6"多品类战略，在巩固能量饮料核心优势的同时 推动东鹏"补水啦"等新品类快速成长，产品结构持续优化，第二增长曲线成效显著。 目前，东鹏饮料已构建覆盖全国近100%地级市的立体化销售网络，拥有3200余家经销商及430万家有效 活跃终端网点，触达不重复终端消费者超2.5亿。通过渠道精细化管理，确保产品高效触达全国市场， 这一广覆盖、深渗透的渠道体系，既助力产品动销与市场扩张，更成为企业抵御行业波动的核心竞争优 势。 此次港股上市是东鹏饮料全球化战略的重要起点。作为企业出海的关键举措，港股上市将为其国际化拓 展提供强大助力。目前东鹏饮料的产品已出口超30个国家和地区，印尼、越南等海外子公司落地运营， 海外产能与渠道布局同步推进；本次募集资金也将投向产能 ...

龙光集团(03380)盘中涨超22%，午盘收涨5%。深圳龙光控股21只债券重组议案已获通过。 东鹏饮料(09980)上市次日涨超4%，总市值逼近1500亿港元，公司携手三林集团出海东南亚。 智通财经APP获悉，港股恒生指数跌0.41%，跌110点，报26724点；恒生科技指数跌2.2%。港股早盘成 交1514亿港元。 腾讯控股(00700)跌幅扩大逾3%拖累恒生科技指数，微信宣布对元宝的违规链接进行处置。 航空股涨幅居前。官方预期今年春运客流将再创历史新高，民航出行需求旺盛。中国国航(00753)涨 4%；东方航空(00670)涨7.2%；南方航空(01055)涨5.9%。 氢能概念股延续涨势，氢能政策定调空前明确，海外供应链宣布扩产。国富氢能(02582)涨超23%；京城 机电股份(00187)涨10%；中集安瑞科(03899)涨3.7%。 钧达股份(02865)涨7.8%，据报马斯克团队密访中国多家光伏企业。 高地股份(01676)跌超35%，近期发生转存仓行为，此前完成配售3918.4万股新股份。 新股国恩科技（02768）首日挂牌加入港股通，午盘涨16%。 AI概念股下挫，市场担忧新一轮AI替代风险， ...