Group 1: Equipment Export - The engineering machinery sector is expected to see a full domestic recovery and moderate export recovery in 2025, with a projected revenue growth of 12% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [52] - Key recommended companies for engineering machinery include SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Hengli Hydraulic, which are expected to benefit from both domestic and international demand [3][52] - The oil service equipment sector is poised for significant growth due to historical opportunities in the Middle East and the Belt and Road Initiative, with recommended companies including Jereh and Neway [3] Group 2: Domestic Demand Improvement - The photovoltaic equipment sector is entering a platform integration phase, with significant advancements in perovskite and heterojunction technologies, leading to increased equipment value [3] - The lithium battery equipment sector is expected to benefit from ongoing capacity expansions and solid-state battery technology, with recommended companies including Lead Intelligent and Hanke Technology [4] - The semiconductor equipment sector is experiencing a recovery driven by domestic substitution and AI-related demand, with key recommendations including Northern Huachuang and Zhongwei [4] Group 3: High-Growth Sectors - The PCB equipment sector is entering a new expansion cycle driven by AI, with high demand for advanced HDI and SLP boards, with recommended companies including Dazhu CNC and Ding Tai High-Tech [5] - The liquid cooling equipment market is growing rapidly as it becomes a standard for AI server cooling, with key recommendations including Hongsheng and a focus on Invec [5] - The gas turbine and diesel generator sectors are expected to see significant growth due to increased electricity demand driven by AI, with recommended companies including Jereh and Yingliu [5] Group 4: New Technologies and Directions - The mass production of humanoid robots is anticipated, with domestic component manufacturers expected to benefit from cost reductions, with recommended companies including Hengli Hydraulic and New Coordinates [5] - The integration of new technologies in the photovoltaic sector is leading to industry transformation, with a focus on innovative solutions [5] Group 5: Performance Analysis - The semiconductor equipment and PCB equipment sectors are leading in revenue growth, with semiconductor equipment benefiting from advanced process expansions and PCB equipment driven by AI server demand [33] - The profit growth in the PCB equipment and general automation sectors is notable, with improvements in product structure and scale effects [33] - The overall machinery sector is experiencing a mild upward trend, with significant performance disparities among sub-sectors [11][20]

从内销来看，目前我国挖机的结构在改善，小挖的占比仍高，反映机器人替人的需求，大挖的占比提 升，反映大型项目和矿山需求提升，而中挖的比例则保持较低水平，也反映了地产建筑的结构性拖累。 从出口看，我国挖机主要销往新兴国家，而新兴国家的城市化建设仍在持续，该行认为国内主机厂通过 深耕海外市场提升竞争力，份额也在持续提升。综合来看，该行认为11 月增速回升的背后反映了经济 的结构性改善。 智通财经APP获悉，东方证券发布研报称，看到挖掘机11月增速回升，而其中内销改善反映了经济的结 构性改善，出口改善反映了行业的竞争力上升。该行认为市场对行业结构性改善的预期将上升，也将带 来风险评价的下降，利好中盘蓝筹公司的投资机会。部分相关标的：恒立液压(601100.SH，未评级)、 柳工(000528.SZ，未评级)、中联重科(000157.SZ，买入)、徐工机械(000425.SZ，未评级)。 东方证券主要观点如下： 挖掘机11月销量增速回升 根据工程机械协会，2025 年1-11 月，共销售挖掘机21.22 万台，同比增长16.7%，其中，国内销量10.82 万台，同比增长18.6%，出口销量10.40 万台，同比增长14 ...

Group 1 - The excavator index experienced a strong surge, with a daily increase of 2.32% [1] - Component stocks showed active performance, with China First Heavy Industries hitting the daily limit [1] - Other companies such as XCMG, Liugong, Shantui, and Zoomlion also saw significant gains [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant increase in order volumes among nearly 200 A-share listed companies, indicating a robust industrial climate in China, particularly in the machinery, electronics, and power equipment sectors [2] - The shift from "product export" to "value chain export" is evident, with companies leveraging technology and brand strength to secure key orders in high-end markets [3][6] - Emerging industries such as AI, energy storage, and semiconductors are experiencing substantial order growth, reflecting the transformation of technological trends into rapid market expansion [7][8][9] Group 1: Industrial Performance - Nearly 200 A-share listed companies reported "full orders" or "industry prosperity," with machinery, electronics, and power equipment being the most vibrant sectors [2] - Companies like Tongyu Communication and Chutian Technology are accelerating their globalization efforts, achieving significant breakthroughs in developed markets [3] - Keda Manufacturing reported that its ceramic machinery orders exceeded the previous year's figures, with over 65% of orders coming from overseas [5] Group 2: Emerging Industries - The AI, energy storage, and semiconductor sectors are seeing high growth in orders, with companies like Lanke Technology reporting over 140 million yuan in pending orders for their DDR5 chips [7] - The energy storage market is recovering rapidly, driven by global energy transitions, with companies like Nanfang Technology noting a temporary supply shortage in high-quality battery cells [8] - The semiconductor industry is benefiting from a dual boost of cyclical recovery and domestic substitution, with companies like Aisen Co. reporting over 40% revenue growth [9] Group 3: Traditional Industries - Traditional heavy industries such as marine equipment and shipbuilding are also showing strong performance, with some companies' order backlogs extending to 2027 or 2029 [10][11] - CIMC reported a backlog of approximately 5.55 billion USD in its marine engineering segment, with production scheduled through 2027-2028 [10] - Xiamen Xiangyu's shipbuilding business has orders scheduled through 2029, reflecting a robust demand in marine oil and gas development [11]

| 交易数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总市值（百万元） | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | 总股本（百万股） | 58.80 | | 流通股本（百万股） | | | 12 个月价格区间 | / | | 分析师 | 李蕙 | | SAC 执业证书编号：S0910519100001 | | | 报告联系人 | lihui1@huajinsc.cn 戴筝筝 | | daizhengzheng@huajinsc.cn | | 2025 年 12 月 09 日 公司研究●证券研究报告 元创股份（001325.SZ） 新股覆盖研究 投资要点 12 月 9 日有一只主板新股"元创股份"申购，发行价格为 24.75 元/股、发行市盈 率为 12.93 倍（每股收益按照 2024 年度公司经审计的扣除非经常性损益前后孰低 的归属于母公司股东的净利润除以发行后总股本计算）。 元创股份（001325）：公司专业从事研发、生产、销售橡胶履带类产品，具体包 括农用机械橡胶履带、工程机械橡胶履带和橡胶履带板等。公司 2022-2024 年分 别 实 现 营 业 收 入 12.61 亿 元 /11.41 亿 元 / ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates a positive trend in the excavator market, with a projected sales increase of 13.9% year-on-year in November 2025, totaling 20,027 units sold, including 9,842 units domestically and 10,185 units for export [1] Domestic Market - Domestic excavator sales are expected to approach 120,000 units this year, showing significant growth potential compared to 290,000 units sold in 2020 [2] - The domestic sales in November 2025 reached 9,842 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.11% [1] - For the period from January to November 2025, total excavator sales amounted to 212,162 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.7% [1] Export Market - November 2025 saw monthly excavator sales exceed 10,000 units, with annual exports projected to surpass 110,000 units, potentially setting a historical record [2] - The export volume in November 2025 was 10,185 units, representing an 18.8% year-on-year increase [1] Construction Activity - The average working hours for major construction machinery in November 2025 were 84.2 hours, showing a year-on-year decline of 13% but a month-on-month increase of 4.08% [3] - The working rate for major construction machinery was 56.5%, down 12.1 percentage points year-on-year but up 1.5 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a less optimistic construction intensity [3] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment in China from January to October 2025 saw a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year, with specific sectors like pipeline transportation and water transportation showing growth [4] - Real estate fixed asset investment totaled 7.36 trillion yuan, down 14.7% year-on-year, with new construction area declining by 19.8% [4] - However, there are signs of recovery in construction demand, as indicated by an increase in the utilization rate of tower cranes [4] Global Market Outlook - According to Off-Highway Research, a 2% decline in global construction machinery is expected in 2025, followed by a return to growth in 2026 [5] - The overseas market is anticipated to expand, driven by mining and infrastructure demand, supported by a declining interest rate environment and high mineral prices [5] Investment Recommendations - The engineering machinery sector is viewed positively for 2026, with key manufacturers to watch including SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Shantui [6] - In the components segment, companies like Hengli Hydraulic, Aidi Precision, Fushite, and Weiman Sealing are highlighted as important players [6]

Group 1: Robotics Industry - The U.S. government is focusing on the development of robotics, indicating that robotics technology is becoming a key frontier in U.S.-China competition, with potential for continued resonance between the two countries' industries [1] - The Trump administration's actions suggest a strategic elevation of the U.S. robotics industry, with domestic policies expected to follow suit [1] - U.S. companies are actively investing in the robotics sector, creating a closed loop of "model-simulation-hardware," while China's supply chain is accelerating the implementation of robotics in various scenarios [1] Group 2: Construction Machinery - In November, domestic excavator sales exceeded expectations, and exports maintained high growth rates despite a high base, indicating a strong overall fundamental outlook for the sector [2] - The upward trend in both domestic and international sales of construction machinery has been validated, with a focus on overseas markets where profits from exports account for about 70% of many companies [2] - The performance of companies in the construction machinery sector remains strong, with non-excavator domestic sales also showing significant growth [2] Group 3: Lithium Battery Equipment - The electrification of ships is expanding the application of lithium batteries into new scenarios, with a positive outlook for lithium battery equipment in the upcoming year [3] - The demand for lithium batteries is expected to increase as new technologies like solid-state and sodium-ion batteries emerge, enhancing the electrification rate across various sectors [3] - The mid-term acceptance of solid-state batteries is anticipated to be completed by the end of the year, leading to a new round of order tenders from leading battery manufacturers and vehicle manufacturers [3] Group 4: PCB Equipment - The PCB industry is experiencing a resurgence, characterized by high-end product development and factory establishment in Southeast Asia, which is driving the demand for PCB equipment upgrades [4] - Key segments of PCB equipment, such as drilling and plating, hold significant value and are critical for circuit board performance [4] - The industry is evolving towards higher layer counts and more precise wiring due to AI-driven advancements, necessitating improvements in processing technology [4] Group 5: Forklifts & Mobile Robots - Sales of large forklifts are maintaining growth, with domestic sales increasing by 5% to 16% and exports growing by 8% to 23% from July to October [5] - The industry is optimistic about the upward trend in demand for smart logistics and unmanned forklifts, with major companies launching intelligent logistics products in Q4 [5] Group 6: Recommended Companies in Machinery Sector - Key companies recommended include Hengli Hydraulic, Aibin Technology, LiuGong, XCMG, Jereh, Naipu Mining, SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, Anhui Heli, Hangcha Group, Huace Testing, Shoucheng Holdings, Xian Dao Intelligent, Bozhong Precision, Haitai International, Yizhiming, Puyuan Precision Electronics, Zhongji United, and Maiwei Shares [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the engineering machinery sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong domestic and export sales of excavators, with November 2025 sales reaching 20,027 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%. Domestic sales were 9,842 units (up 9.11%), while exports were 10,185 units (up 18.8%) [1]. - For the first eleven months of 2025, total excavator sales reached 212,162 units, reflecting a 16.7% year-on-year growth, with domestic sales at 108,187 units (up 18.6%) and exports at 103,975 units (up 14.9%) [1]. - The report notes that the construction intensity in China remains weak, with average working hours for major construction machinery at 84.2 hours in November, down 13% year-on-year [4]. - Infrastructure investment in China has shown stability, with a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year from January to October 2025, while real estate fixed asset investment decreased by 14.7% [4]. - The report anticipates a rebound in construction demand, as indicated by an increase in the utilization rate of construction cranes in November [4]. - The global engineering machinery market is expected to expand, supported by a decline in interest rates and sustained high mineral prices, with a projected 2% decline in 2025 followed by positive growth in 2026 [4]. - The report identifies key companies to watch in the sector, including SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Shantui, as well as component manufacturers like Hengli Hydraulic and Aidi Precision [4]. Summary by Sections Domestic Sales - Excavator sales in November 2025 reached 9,842 units, a 9.11% increase year-on-year, contributing to a total of 108,187 units sold domestically from January to November, marking an 18.6% increase [1]. Export Sales - November 2025 saw exports of excavators exceed 10,000 units for the month, with a total of 103,975 units exported from January to November, reflecting a 14.9% increase [1]. Construction Activity - The average working hours for major construction machinery were reported at 84.2 hours in November, a decrease of 13% year-on-year, indicating weak construction activity [4]. Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment in China showed a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year from January to October 2025, with specific sectors like pipeline transportation and water transportation showing growth [4]. Market Outlook - The global engineering machinery market is projected to face a 2% decline in 2025, with expectations of recovery in 2026, driven by mining and infrastructure demand [4]. Key Companies - The report highlights several key players in the engineering machinery sector, including SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Zoomlion, as well as component manufacturers like Hengli Hydraulic and Aidi Precision [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the engineering machinery industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1]. Core Insights - November sales of excavators reached 20,027 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, with domestic sales at 9,842 units (up 9.11%) and exports at 10,185 units (up 18.8%) [1]. - For the first eleven months of 2025, total excavator sales were 212,162 units, reflecting a 16.7% year-on-year growth, with domestic sales at 108,187 units (up 18.6%) and exports at 103,975 units (up 14.9%) [1]. - The average working hours for major engineering machinery products in November 2025 were 84.2 hours, a decrease of 13% year-on-year, while the operating rate was 56.5%, down 12.1 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - Infrastructure investment in China showed stability, with a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year from January to October 2025, while real estate fixed asset investment dropped by 14.7% [4]. - The global engineering machinery market is expected to see a rebound in 2026, supported by a decline in interest rates and sustained high mineral prices [4]. - Key companies to watch in the sector include SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Shantui, with component manufacturers like Hengli Hydraulic and Aidi Precision also highlighted [4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - November excavator sales reached 20,027 units, with domestic and export sales showing significant growth [1]. - Year-to-date sales for 2025 indicate a strong upward trend in the market [1]. Market Conditions - Domestic construction activity remains subdued, as indicated by lower working hours and operating rates for machinery [4]. - Infrastructure investment is stable, while real estate construction demand shows signs of bottoming out [4]. Future Outlook - The engineering machinery sector is expected to benefit from a favorable global market environment in 2026 [4]. - Key players in the industry are positioned for growth, with specific companies identified for potential investment opportunities [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the engineering machinery industry is "Recommended" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant structural growth characteristics, with high-end products and exports being the core driving forces for the machine tool sector [4] - In November 2025, excavator sales reached 20,027 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, with domestic sales at 9,842 units (up 9.11%) and exports at 10,185 units (up 18.8%) [8] - For the period from January to November 2025, a total of 212,162 excavators were sold, marking a 16.7% year-on-year increase, with domestic sales at 108,187 units (up 18.6%) and exports at 103,975 units (up 14.9%) [8] - Loader sales in November 2025 reached 11,419 units, a year-on-year increase of 32.1%, with domestic sales at 5,671 units (up 29.4%) and exports at 5,748 units (up 34.8%) [8] - The report indicates a strong domestic replacement demand for engineering machinery, driven by equipment renewal policies, and a rapid growth in exports with an improving structure [8] - The "Belt and Road" initiative regions are experiencing industrialization and infrastructure growth, while the North American market is expected to recover due to a rate cut cycle and replenishment demand [8] - The European market shows signs of marginal improvement after two years of decline, and Chinese brands have significant growth potential in the European and American markets due to low penetration rates [8] - Electrification and intelligence are opening new growth curves, enhancing both volume and pricing, while also broadening application scenarios [8] - Leading companies are expected to continue increasing their market share overseas, supported by technological upgrades and global expansion strategies [8] Summary by Sections - **Excavator Sales Data**: November 2025 saw excavator sales of 20,027 units, with a 13.9% year-on-year increase. Year-to-date sales reached 212,162 units, up 16.7% [8] - **Loader Sales Data**: November 2025 loader sales were 11,419 units, a 32.1% increase year-on-year, with year-to-date sales at 115,831 units, up 17.2% [8] - **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests focusing on leading companies with a well-established global presence, including XCMG (000425.SZ), SANY Heavy Industry (600031.SH), LiuGong (000528.SZ), Shantui (000680.SZ), Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH), and Zhongji United (605305.SH) [8]