核心观点 ： 沃什降息立场更为鸽派和确定；中国政策重心正转向内需主导，并列为 2026 年首要任务。大跌后，良机就在眼前，市场有望企稳。新 兴科技是主线，价值也会有春天。 | | | 摘要 ▶ 大跌之后：市场有望逐步企稳，投资良机就在眼前。 近期中国市场波动较大，全A平均股价调整达到6%，上证指数跌至临近4000点，并在午后出现 恐慌性抛售。市场下跌由多因素耦合：1）预期层面，市场正快速评估新提名美联储主席凯文·沃什的政策主张，其"降息+缩表"的倾向引起金融条件紧 缩的担心；2）微观交易，黄金/白银等商品价格剧烈波动，以及前期A股权重ETF持续被抛售，叠加临近春节长假观望情绪升温，内外交织之下中国市 场出现大跌。 国泰海通策略认为，大跌之后，市场有望逐步企稳，在春节前重拾上升势头，坚定看好中国股市：第一， 全球市场正快速计入美联储潜 在的鹰派货币立场，但从路径角度沃什的降息立场更鸽派和确定； 第二， 中国政府的政策重心正转向内需主导，并作为首要任务，有望提振中国经济 前景与资产回报； 第三， 中国证监会近期再次强调"全力巩固资本市场稳中向好势头"，并推出中长期资金入市新政。 市场的无差别恐慌抛售令交易加 快出 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - In January 2026, a total of 9 companies were listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and Beijing Stock Exchange, raising a total of 9.053 billion yuan in funds [1]. Group 1: Listing and Fundraising - The 9 listed companies included 3 from the main boards of Shanghai and Shenzhen, 1 from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, and 5 from the Beijing Stock Exchange [1]. - The top fundraising company was Zhenstone Co., Ltd., which raised 2.919 billion yuan, followed by Hengyun Chang and Shaanxi Tourism, which raised 1.561 billion yuan and 1.555 billion yuan respectively [1]. Group 2: Underwriting and Sponsorship Fees - A total of 9 securities firms participated in the underwriting and sponsorship of the newly listed companies, earning a combined fee of 457 million yuan [1]. - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) ranked first in underwriting fees, earning 122.0648 million yuan by sponsoring Zhenstone Co., Ltd. and Shaanxi Tourism [1]. - CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan Securities ranked second and third, earning 117.1101 million yuan and 45.4905 million yuan respectively [1][2]. Group 3: Top Securities Firms - The top five securities firms collectively earned 345 million yuan, accounting for 75% of the total underwriting fees for January [1]. - Other notable firms included Shenwan Hongyuan and Southwest Securities, each earning 42.1555 million yuan through joint sponsorship of Zhixin Co., Ltd. [1][2].

来源：喜娜AI 金融市场瞬息万变，投资与经济政策深刻影响全球。我们为您带来昨夜今晨的财经新闻，涵盖股市动 态、经济数据、企业财务和政策更新，帮助您全面把握金融世界。 黄金价格再狂泻，实探北京金店：饰品金价2小时下降近50元/克 专家提醒"摒弃投机" 2月2日，现货黄金价格再度深跌。在北京天雅珠宝城，饰品金价在午间两小时内每克下跌近50元。现场 商家对"卖金"时机看法不一，市场买卖热度高涨。专家指出，六大行近期调整黄金业务并提示风险，揭 示了当前黄金交易存在多重叠加风险，价格受国际因素影响波动剧烈，短线操作容错率极低。建议普通 投资者应摒弃投机心态，选择正规渠道，进行理性资产配置并严格控制风险。 杰我睿兑付折上折、云点当遭连续挤兑，黄金平台陷"多事之秋" 近期，杰我睿与云点当两家黄金交易平台相继陷入兑付危机。杰我睿虽启动清算并陆续兑付，但部分消 费者遭遇兑付额度被大幅缩减甚至"折上折"的困境。云点当则因连续挤兑，推出分期、一次性打折及等 待全额兑付等多种方案。分析指出，此类平台常采用预定价或高杠杆交易模式，风险极高。专家建议投 资者应审慎选择兑付方案、固定证据，并务必选择持牌正规机构进行黄金投资，远离资质不明平 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the issuance of the "2026 Third Phase China Railway Construction Bonds" with a total scale of 10 billion yuan, divided into two types: 5 billion yuan for 10-year bonds and 5 billion yuan for 30-year bonds [4][39]. - The bonds will be issued through a single-rate (Dutch-style) bidding process, with the bidding date set for February 4, 2026, and results to be announced on February 5, 2026 [17][40]. - The final coupon rates for the bonds will be determined based on market bidding results, with the 10-year bond's bidding rate range set between 1.33% and 2.33%, and the 30-year bond's range between 1.73% and 2.73% [39][40]. Group 2 - The lead underwriter for this bond issuance is Guotai Junan Securities, with a syndicate including several other securities firms [5][6]. - The bonds will be registered and settled through the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation and the Central Government Securities Depository Trust and Clearing Co., Ltd [8][41]. - Investors are encouraged to consult legal and professional advisors regarding the legality and compliance of their bond purchases [27]. Group 3 - The bonds are government-supported bonds approved by the State Council, with specific tax benefits for both corporate and individual investors [38]. - The issuance is part of a broader plan where the total registered issuance of railway construction bonds is set at 300 billion yuan, valid for 24 months [38]. - The bonds will be publicly issued to institutional investors, with trading available post-listing for both institutional and individual investors [41].

Group 1 - The issuer of the bond is China National Railway Group Co., Ltd., and the total issuance scale is 10 billion yuan for the "2026 Third Phase China Railway Construction Bond" [4][29] - The bond is divided into two types: a 10-year bond with a scale of 5 billion yuan and a 30-year bond with a scale of 5 billion yuan, totaling 10 billion yuan [21][29] - The bonds will be issued at a fixed interest rate, with the 10-year bond's interest rate being the Shibor benchmark rate plus a basic spread ranging from -0.3% to 0.7%, and the 30-year bond's interest rate ranging from 0.1% to 1.1% [21][29] Group 2 - The main underwriter for this bond issuance is Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd., which is responsible for managing the underwriting team and coordinating the issuance process [5][31] - The bonds will be publicly issued to institutional investors through a bidding system on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [22][31] - The bonds will be registered and held by the Shenzhen branch of the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation and the Central Government Bond Registration and Clearing Co., Ltd. [24][30] Group 3 - The bonds will have a maturity date of February 5, 2036, for the 10-year bond and February 5, 2056, for the 30-year bond [27] - The bonds will be issued at par value of 100 yuan, with a minimum subscription unit of 10 million yuan [24][29] - The bonds will be guaranteed by the Railway Construction Fund, providing an irrevocable joint liability guarantee [29]

Core Viewpoint - As of February 2, 2025, 26 brokerage stocks and related concept stocks have reported positive earnings forecasts, with expected net profits showing significant year-on-year growth [1][3]. Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - 26 brokerage firms are expected to achieve positive net profits in 2025, with all reporting year-on-year growth [3]. - CITIC Securities leads the industry with an expected net profit of 30.051 billion yuan, driven by growth in brokerage, investment banking, and proprietary trading [3]. - Other firms, including Guotai Junan, CICC, and Shenwan Hongyuan, are also expected to report net profits exceeding 10 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Growth Drivers - The significant increase in earnings is attributed to a surge in trading volume, with the average daily trading volume in the stock market reaching 1.7278 trillion yuan, a 62.69% increase year-on-year [5]. - The increase in margin trading and securities lending has contributed to higher interest income for brokerages [4]. - Firms like Guotai Junan are enhancing their service capabilities across retail, institutional, and corporate client segments, leading to record asset scales and operational performance [4]. Group 3: Performance Trends - Some firms, such as Tianfeng Securities and Jinlong Co., have turned losses into profits, with Tianfeng expected to report a net profit of 12.5 million to 18.5 million yuan [6]. - The overall performance of the brokerage sector has been mixed, with the CSI All Share Securities Company Index declining by 1.34% as of February 2, 2025, despite positive earnings forecasts [7]. - Analysts predict that while the brokerage sector will continue to perform well in 2026, the growth rate may be lower than in 2025 due to the market's prior price adjustments [7].

在中国（香港）金融衍生品投资研究院院长王红英看来，2025年，中国金融资本市场呈现结构性上涨的 趋势，在牛市背景下成交量急剧放大。首先，成交量大幅增加给券商经纪业务带来较乐观的收入，融资 融券的增加也给券商带来了亮眼的利息收入。其次，券商的自营业务也实现较好的收益，增加了证券公 司的直接利润。另外，部分券商也通过业务转型实现财富和管理业务的规模性增长。服务水平的提升也 给券商带来了更为持续的客户规模增加和利润水平的上升。 上市公司2025年度业绩预告/快报陆续披露中。北京商报记者梳理公开信息统计，截至2月2日，已有26 只券商股及券商概念股报喜，预计2025年度归母净利润实现正收益且同比增长。具体来看，不仅有5家 机构预计归母净利润区间最大值超百亿元，还有多家机构同比增速翻倍，更有天风证券、锦龙股份同比 扭亏为盈。有业内人士预计，券商股在2026年仍会维持向好发展，但业绩增速或会弱于2025年整体表 现。 26家机构预计净利实现正收益 公开数据显示，截至2月2日，已有26只券商股及券商概念股披露相关数据。整体来看，26家机构预计 2025年净利润均实现正收益，且同比均增长。 截至目前，中信证券以2025年预计 ...

来源：滚动播报 国泰海通研报指出，上周全球焦点在美联储，其行为表现为一"不动"和一"动"，"不动"之处在于FOMC 暂停降息，但是表态略微偏鹰，资产价格开始调整，其后一"动"在于美联储新主席落地，"沃什时刻"导 致贵金属为代表的市场大幅调整，但其只是短期市场过度炒作后调整的导火索，而非根本原因，黄金等 价格调整后或仍有支撑。 ...

2025年，交易所扎实推进资产重组项目审核工作，全年累计审核项目41家，较上年同期增加26家；证监 会高效落实注册环节职责，完成相关项目注册39家。上述审核及注册项目合计涉及上市公司42家。自 2020年以来，报送证监会的相关项目均未出现终止注册情形。审核环节通过率稳步攀升至97.56%，较 上年小幅提升。全流程平均审核历时142天，注册历时27天。国泰君安吸收合并海通证券项目以17天审 核、8天注册的高效进程，成为年内审核注册速度最快的案例。收购方属性方面，国资与非国资主体占 比各达50%，结构分布均衡。交易类型上，以关联方资产注入、收购少数股权等非市场化交易为主导。 此外，2025年上市公司重大资产重组市场成效显著，累计完成项目48家，较上年增加22家。从交易体量 来看，全年重大资产重组的完成规模达4178.59亿元，并购重组募集配套资金落地256.47亿元，同比分别 增长3251.30亿元、178.69亿元。板块分布上，上交所主板表现突出，以19单交易的完成量位居各板块首 位。重组形式方面，协议收购为市场主流模式，而外部吸收合并则成为交易规模的主力军，贡献交易金 额2127.65亿元，在各类重组形式中位 ...

上市公司2025年度业绩预告/快报陆续披露中。北京商报记者梳理公开信息统计，截至2月2日，已有26 只券商股及券商概念股报喜，预计2025年度归母净利润实现正收益且同比增长。具体来看，不仅有5家 机构预计归母净利润区间最大值超百亿元，还有多家机构同比增速翻倍，更有天风证券、锦龙股份同比 扭亏为盈。有业内人士预计，券商股在2026年仍会维持向好发展，但业绩增速或会弱于2025年整体表 现。 | | 2025年券商业绩预告/快报披露情况 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 原保费团员书馆 | 同比增长情况 | | 机构名称 | [报告期] 2025年报 | [报告期] 2025年报 | | | [单位] 亿元 | [单位] % | | 中信证券 | 300.51 | 38.46 | | 国泰海通 | 275.33-280.06 | 111-115 | | 招商证券 | 123 | 18.43 | | 申万宏源 | 91-101 | 74.64-93.83 | | 中金公司 | 85.42-105.35 | 50-85 | | 东方证券 | 56.2 | 67.8 | | 方正证券 | 38.6 ...