Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector is experiencing a significant recovery driven by regulatory optimization, policy benefits, and a shift towards high-quality development, leading to valuation restoration and structural reconfiguration opportunities. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 29, 2026, the Real Estate ETF (512200) saw an intraday increase of nearly 4%, currently up by 3.09%, with a turnover rate of 16.92% and a transaction volume of 994 million yuan, indicating active market trading [1] - Key stocks in the index, such as Zhujiang Holdings, Tefa Services, and Dayuecheng, saw increases of 10.07%, 10.06%, and 10.03% respectively, reflecting strong performance in the sector [1] Group 2: Regulatory and Policy Environment - The cancellation of the monthly reporting requirements for the "three red lines" indicates a shift in regulatory focus from universal deleveraging to differentiated and refined control, allowing financially sound companies more operational freedom and improving the financing environment [1] - The extension of the financing "white list" for five years provides real estate companies with a buffer for cash flow, effectively alleviating liquidity pressures [2] - The initiation of commercial real estate REITs trials is expected to activate existing assets and reduce reliance on financing, contributing to a comprehensive support system for the industry [2] Group 3: Industry Outlook - Despite current pressures on sales and prices, the accelerated release of policy benefits is driving the industry away from high leverage and expansion towards a new phase of quality development focused on asset optimization and operational efficiency [2] - The Ministry of Finance and other departments have extended tax refund incentives for home purchases until the end of 2027, reducing transaction costs for improvement demand [2] - The central bank has lowered the down payment ratio for commercial properties from 50% to 30%, directly stimulating liquidity in the commercial market [2] - A "small spring" in the real estate market is emerging, with policy efforts and demand in core cities creating a positive feedback loop, leading to a rebound in the secondary housing market [2]

Market Overview - As of January 29, A-share major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.1% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.01% [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 20,349 billion yuan, an increase of 1,042 billion yuan compared to the previous day [2] - Over 2,400 stocks in the market experienced gains [2] Gold Market - International gold prices reached new highs, with spot gold surpassing $5,500 per ounce, peaking at $5,598.75 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 28% [10][11] - Gold stocks surged, with China Gold achieving five consecutive trading limits [9][12] - Despite the surge, China Gold warned investors about potential risks, stating that its main business remains unchanged and projecting a net profit decrease of 55% to 65% for 2025 [12] AI Application Sector - AI application stocks saw a significant rally, with Keda Xunfei (科大讯飞) hitting the daily limit up after a positive earnings forecast [5][6] - Keda Xunfei expects a net profit of 785 million to 950 million yuan for 2025, representing a growth of 40% to 70% year-on-year [8] - The company reported over a 20% increase in R&D investment, emphasizing its commitment to core technology autonomy [8] - Analysts from CITIC Securities expressed optimism about the AI application and computing power sectors, anticipating a surge in AI-native applications and the need for increased computing power [8] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector experienced a rebound, with stocks like I Love My Home and Shenzhen Deep Housing hitting daily limits [14] - Shenzhen Deep Housing projected a net profit of 80.8 million to 121 million yuan for 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss of 177 million yuan the previous year [14] - Hong Kong-listed property stocks also saw significant gains, with notable increases in companies like Contemporary Land and China Aoyuan [14][16] - The restructuring of debts among leading real estate companies is progressing, with Vanke successfully extending three domestic bonds and other companies like Country Garden and Sunac China entering execution phases for debt restructuring [17] - Experts suggest that a new financing model for real estate is emerging, focusing on cash flow safety and operational efficiency [18]

Summary of Real Estate Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The real estate industry is experiencing significant challenges, with a notable decline in new home sales across major cities in 2025. The overall new home transaction area in 40 key cities decreased by 14% year-on-year, with first-tier cities seeing a larger decline of 16% compared to second, third, and fourth-tier cities [1][3] - The second-hand housing market showed a mixed performance, with a year-on-year decline of 31% but a month-on-month increase of 13% in December 2025 [1][5] Key Points and Arguments New Home Market Performance - In December 2025, new home sales in 40 tracked cities increased by 34% month-on-month but decreased by 32% year-on-year. First-tier cities saw a 33% month-on-month increase but a 29% year-on-year decline [2] - The overall new home market for 2025 showed a 14% year-on-year decline, with Shenzhen experiencing a significant drop of 35% [3] Second-Hand Home Market - The second-hand home market performed better than the new home market, with an overall year-on-year decline of only 4%. First-tier cities recorded a 2% increase year-on-year, while second, third, and fourth-tier cities saw declines of 6% and 10% respectively [1][5] Inventory and Depletion Cycle - By the end of 2025, the narrow inventory area in 12 major cities decreased by 8% compared to the end of 2024, but the overall depletion cycle increased to 17.8 months, up by 3.5 months year-on-year [1][6] Land Market Trends - The land market in 2025 faced a decline in both volume and price, with total construction area down by 9% and total price down by 10%. The average floor price decreased by 2% year-on-year [1][7] Sales and Industry Concentration - The sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies fell by 20% to 2.46 trillion yuan. The market concentration continued to decline, with the CR5 market share dropping to 10% [1][8] Land Acquisition by Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies' land acquisition amount reached 1.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, but still significantly below 2021 levels. The acquisition intensity was 33%, up by 7.2 percentage points year-on-year [1][9] Financing Situation - The total issuance of domestic and foreign bonds and ABS in the real estate industry grew by 6% to 596.7 billion yuan in 2025. The average issuance rate was 2.69%, down by 0.26 percentage points year-on-year [1][11] Policy Impacts - Recent policies emphasize high-quality urban renewal and risk mitigation in key areas. The personal housing sales tax rate will decrease from 5% to 3% starting in 2026, and there will be expansions in the scope of infrastructure REITs [1][12][13] Market Outlook - The real estate industry is expected to continue facing adjustment pressures, with both new and second-hand home transaction volumes showing negative year-on-year growth. Potential policy adjustments in early 2026 may help stabilize the market [1][15] Additional Important Insights - The absolute return of the real estate sector in December was negative 4%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 6.2 percentage points. For the entire year, the absolute return was 1.8%, lagging behind the CSI 300 by 15.8 percentage points [1][14]

Core Viewpoint - The housing rental concept is experiencing a significant rebound, with notable stock price increases for several companies in the sector, including I Love My Home, which reached its daily limit, along with others like Binjiang Group, China Merchants Shekou, Jindi Group, Vanke A, 365 Network, and Weiye Shares [1] Group 1 - The stock price of I Love My Home has hit the daily limit, indicating strong market interest and confidence in the company [1] - Other companies in the housing rental sector, such as Binjiang Group, China Merchants Shekou, Jindi Group, Vanke A, 365 Network, and Weiye Shares, have also seen their stock prices rise in response to the market trend [1]

记者丨 吴抒颖 编辑丨张伟贤 1月28日，香港恒生指数收涨2.58%，恒生科技指数涨2.53%，地产股午后持续走高，多股尾盘爆发。 截至收盘，A股房企中盈新发展涨超10%，万科报收4.86元/股，上涨2.32%；保利发展报6.8元/股，上涨3.03%；招商蛇口收于10.07元/ 股，上涨2.44%。港股市场方面，GBA集团飙升超22%，星星集团涨近17%，合景泰富涨近14%，中国金茂涨近12%，绿城中国涨 9%，华润置地、融创中国、万科企业、中国海外发展、碧桂园涨幅超3%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000620 | 盈新发展 | 3.72 c | 0.34 | 10.06% | | 000573 | 粤宏远 A | 4.85 c | 0.44 | 9.98% | | 000031 | 大悦城 | 3.39 c | 0.19 | 5.94% | | 000042 | 中洲控股 | 8.44 c | 0.40 | 4.98% | | 600791 | 京能置业 | 6.51 c | 0.27 | 4.33% | | ...

■重点关注 证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2026 年 1 月 28 日 | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 4139.90 | 0.18 | | 深证成指 | 14329.91 | 0.09 | | 沪深 300 | 4705.69 | (0.03) | | 中小 100 | 8725.73 | (0.20) | | 创业板指 | 3342.60 | 0.71 | | 行业表现（申万一级） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | 电子 | 2.27 | 煤炭 | (2.27) | | 通信 | 2.15 | 农林牧渔 | (1.95) | | 国防军工 | 1.65 | 钢铁 | (1.34) | | 机械设备 | 0.64 | 美容护理 | (1.22) | | 传媒 | 0.48 | 医药生物 | (1.11) | 资料来源：万得，中银证券 中银晨会聚焦-20260128 重点关注 【宏观经济】2025 年工企利润数据点评—期待 2 ...

资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2026年01月27日 华源晨会精粹 20260127 金融工程 资金流向混债二级基金，周期和大金融占比提升——主动型公募基金 2025 年四季报分析：2025 年四季度公募基金总规模变动不大，但不同类别的基金 规模发生明显切换：投资者因追求稳健收益，资金从高波动的主动权益基金（较上 季度规模缩减 1823 亿元）和低风险的纯债基金（较上季度规模缩减 868 亿元）流出， 向中低风险的含权债基（较上季度规模增加 2398 亿元）迁移，与此同时，含权债基 的新发热度升高，发行数量创下 2020 年以来单季度新高。主动权益基金：对港股的 配置热情明显下降，显著增配周期板块。行业维度上，电子、通信、电新为重仓前 三，有色金属、基础化工和非银主动加仓最多。股债混合型基金：同样呈现出减仓 港股、加仓创业板的特征，2025 年四季度重仓股中占比最高的三个行业分别为电子、 有色和通信，主动加仓最多的行业为电子、通信和非银。含权债基：是承接资金向 中低风险迁移的重要方向，权益配置上向周期和大金融倾斜，对医药板块的减仓幅 度较大；债券方面，持续降低可转债仓位，转向利率债和信用债。纯债基金：是 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a continued adjustment in sales, with expectations for policy effectiveness and market stabilization [3] - The importance of the real estate industry has been reaffirmed due to a stronger supportive stance from policies, as indicated by multiple articles published in early 2026 [7] - The overall allocation of public funds to the A-share real estate sector has decreased to 0.43% as of Q4 2025, marking a decline of 0.19 percentage points from Q3 2025 [5][14] - The concentration of holdings in the top ten real estate stocks has increased to 80.0%, up by 7.9 percentage points from Q3 2025, indicating a focus on development-related stocks [6][20] Summary by Sections Public Fund Allocation - As of Q4 2025, public funds' allocation to the A-share real estate sector has dropped to 0.43%, with a standard allocation ratio of 1.10%, reflecting a decrease in market confidence [5][14] - The current holding ratio relative to the standard allocation is at 39%, the lowest since 2021 [5][14] Individual Stock Focus - The top ten real estate stocks held by public funds include Beike-W, China Resources Land, and China Overseas Development, with a focus on development-related stocks [6][20] - The concentration of these top holdings indicates a strategic shift towards fewer, more stable investments within the sector [6][20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in companies with strong credit ratings and good urban fundamentals, such as Greentown China and China Overseas Development [22] - It also recommends companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, like China Resources Land and Longfor Group [22] - Additionally, it highlights quality property management firms under the "Good House, Good Service" policy, such as China Resources Mixc Life and Greentown Service [22]

Core Insights - In 2025, Chengdu recorded a historical high of 150 transactions for new homes priced over 20 million, representing only about 0.2% of the city's total transactions, highlighting a niche market with significant attention due to high prices [1][12] - The beginning of 2026 has seen a surge in high-end property transactions, with over 44 units sold in less than a month, indicating strong demand in this segment [3][4] Market Performance - The projects contributing to the high-end market include Jianfa Haiyao and Beichen S1, with the latter achieving a record transaction price of approximately 54.08 million for a single unit [5][9] - The Financial City area has emerged as the best-performing segment for properties priced over 20 million, accounting for about 95% of the total transactions in this category [8] Buyer Demographics - A significant portion of buyers in the 20 million+ segment are under 45 years old, with this age group making up nearly 85% of the purchasers, indicating a trend towards younger buyers [12] Product Quality and Market Dynamics - The high-end market is supported by a shift in product offerings, moving from basic housing to lifestyle-oriented developments, which cater to the evolving needs of high-net-worth individuals [12] - Despite a 7.8% year-on-year decline in the overall new housing market, Chengdu maintained the highest sales volume and area in the country, providing a stable foundation for the luxury segment [12][14] Future Outlook - The 2026 market is expected to continue its upward trend, with multiple new projects set to launch, potentially leading to record supply levels in the 20 million+ category [16][17] - The success of the high-end market will depend on the diversity of upcoming projects and their ability to resonate with affluent buyers [16]

27 January 2026 | 6:56AM CST Equity Research CHINA PROPERTY WEEKLY WRAP Week 4 Wrap - Transactions improved across markets but leading indicators showed slowing signs Key highlights for the week: Central level: the MNR and MOHURD jointly released new measures to further support urban renewal with enhanced execution flexibility. Key points include: 1) more flexible land transition policies, whereby the original 5-year fixed transition period, during which land use and planning conditions could not be altered ...