退税调整刺激短期需求， 加速上涨注意回调风险 碳酸锂周报 2026/01/10 曾宇轲（有色金属组） 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 CONTENTS 目录 03 供给端 06 成本端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 库存 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 ◆ 期现市场：1月9日，五矿钢联碳酸锂现货指数（MMLC）早盘报138653元，周涨18.6%。MMLC电池级碳酸锂均价为139100元。同日广期所 LC2605收盘价143420元，本周涨17.96%。 ◆ 供给：1月8日，SMM国内碳酸锂周度产量报22535吨，环比增0.5%。 ◆ 需求：乘联会数据，12月新能源车零售量138.7万辆，同比增长7%，环比增幅为5%，全年累计销量1285.9万辆，增速18%。当月厂商批发量 155.4万辆，同比增长3%，但环比下降9%，全年累计批发量达1531万辆，同比增长25%。1月湖南裕能、万润新材、德方纳米和常州锂源等头 部磷酸铁锂企业减产，淡季需求回落。 ◆ 库存：1月8日，国内碳酸锂周 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Fulin Precision announced a significant investment of 6 billion yuan for a new lithium iron phosphate project, aiming to meet the growing demand in the energy storage market, while the industry faces a collective production cut from leading firms [1][2]. Group 1: Company Expansion Plans - Fulin Precision's subsidiary, Jiangxi Shenghua, is set to construct a 500,000-ton high-end lithium iron phosphate project with a total investment of 6 billion yuan, divided into two phases of 250,000 tons each, expected to be completed within 12 months [2]. - The company has previously announced another project in Deyang-Aba with an annual capacity of 350,000 tons of high-pressure dense lithium iron phosphate [1]. Group 2: Industry Context - Major players in the lithium iron phosphate sector, including Wanrun New Energy and Hunan Youneng, are implementing maintenance plans that could reduce production by up to 50% by early 2026, despite holding a significant market share [1]. - The average market price for lithium iron phosphate is reported at 14,704.8 yuan per ton, while production costs range from 16,798.2 yuan to 17,216.3 yuan per ton, indicating a price-cost mismatch [3]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Fulin Precision reported total revenue of 9.085 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.43%, but net profit attributable to shareholders was only 325 million yuan, with a modest growth of 4.63% [2]. - The company's net profit in the third quarter saw a decline of 15.83%, and its gross margin decreased from 12.91% to 11.23% compared to the previous year [2]. Group 4: Financing Challenges - Fulin Precision's financing channels appear constrained, with a planned convertible bond issuance of 1.25 billion yuan still pending approval after more than a year [3]. - The company plans to fund the 6 billion yuan lithium iron phosphate project through self-owned and self-raised funds, which may increase its financial leverage given its current debt ratio of 63.65% [3]. Group 5: Strategic Partnerships - Fulin Precision has a deep partnership with CATL, extending their supply agreement until 2029, with a commitment to supply at least 80% of the promised capacity [5]. - While this partnership provides stable orders, it also poses risks related to high customer concentration and potential delays in price adjustments [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant growth in the production of iron phosphate, projecting a production volume of 3.334 million tons by 2025, which represents a year-on-year increase of 64.1% [1] Group 1: Production and Capacity - By the end of 2025, the nominal capacity of iron phosphate is expected to reach 5.99 million tons per year, an increase of 1.23 million tons compared to the end of 2024 [5] - The industry is projected to further increase its capacity to 7.37 million tons per year by 2026 [5] - The production capacity utilization rate for the iron phosphate industry in 2025 is expected to be significantly higher than the same period last year, with mainstream shipping enterprises maintaining a capacity utilization rate above 60% throughout the year, peaking at 84% in November [7] Group 2: Market Share and Competition - The market concentration for iron phosphate is lower compared to lithium iron phosphate, with the top three companies primarily focusing on self-supply: Hunan Youneng holds over 30%, Wanrun New Energy exceeds 10%, and Bangpu Recycling surpasses 5%, while other mainstream external sales companies remain below 5% [9] - In the export market, the top three companies are Zhongwei, Bangpu, and Tianci, each with export volumes exceeding 100,000 tons, placing them in the first tier; companies like Henan Baili, Xingfa Xingyou, Yuntianhua, and others have export volumes exceeding 50,000 tons, categorizing them in the second tier [11] Group 3: Future Outlook - The overall industry production of iron phosphate is expected to exceed 4.5 million tons in 2026 [13]

Core Viewpoint - The production of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) is projected to reach 3.915 million tons by 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 61.5% [1] Monthly Production Trends - In 2025, LFP production is expected to show a steady increase throughout the year, with monthly outputs of 200,000 to 300,000 tons from January to May, 300,000 to 400,000 tons from June to October, and exceeding 400,000 tons in November and December [3] Capacity Analysis - By the end of 2025, nominal LFP production capacity is expected to reach 6.53 million tons, an increase of 950,000 tons from 5.58 million tons at the end of 2024. However, significant idle capacity exists due to high costs, outdated equipment, lack of technology, and insufficient funding [5] - The nominal production capacity of companies capable of mass production will total 5.7235 million tons, up 742,500 tons from 4.981 million tons in 2024 [5] Company Market Share - Hunan Youneng leads the market with approximately 30% share, while other companies hold less than 10%. The second tier includes Wanrun New Energy, Defang Nano, Fulian Shenghua, Youshan Technology, Longpan Lithium Source, and Guoxuan High-Tech, each with market shares between 5% and 10% [8] - The third tier consists of Taifeng Xianxing, Anda Technology, GCL-Poly Energy, Dingsheng Technology, Jintang Times, Rongtong High-Tech, Wanhu Chemical, and Sichuan Langsheng, each with market shares exceeding 2% [8] Production Growth Rates - Among the top 20 companies, Zhongchu Innovation's 100,000-ton production line is expected to fully release in 2025, with a staggering growth rate of 1578%. Other companies like Bangpu Recycling and Wanhu Chemical also show growth rates exceeding 200%, while Anda Technology, GCL-Poly Energy, and Fulian Shenghua exceed 100% [9] Process Technology - The phosphate iron process accounts for 82.1% of production, followed by ferrous oxalate, ferric nitrate, iron red, and hydrothermal methods. The latter three processes have the potential to transition from niche to mainstream as they have already achieved mass production of high-pressure solid products [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - In the short term, lithium prices still face downward pressure, and price risks should be watched out for. In the medium to long term, the strong upstream price - holding intention verifies the assumption of strong terminal demand, which provides support for prices [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds and Minerals - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 133,500 yuan/ton, with a change of 6,000 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 130,000 yuan/ton, with a change of 5,750 yuan [1] - For lithium ore, the price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China, Li2O: 5.5% - 6%) is 1,770 yuan, with a change of 130 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 2,575 yuan, with a change of 100 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 3,825 yuan, with a change of 110 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) is 13,775 yuan, with a change of 500 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) is 15,450 yuan, with a change of 525 yuan [1][2] Futures Contract - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2601 is 139,960 yuan, with a daily increase of 5.52%; lithium carbonate 2602 is 139,560 yuan, with a daily increase of 4.95%; lithium carbonate 2603 is not given the closing price but has a daily increase of 5.01%; lithium carbonate 2604 is 141,360 yuan, with a daily increase of 5.13%; lithium carbonate 2605 is 142,300 yuan, with a daily increase of 4.54% [1] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) is 48,980 yuan, with a change of 1,455 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) is 184,800 yuan, with a change of 5,000 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) is 164,700 yuan, with a change of 4,000 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power - type) is 165,000 yuan, with a change of 4,300 yuan [2] Price Spread - The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500 yuan, with a change of 250 yuan; the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 8,800 yuan, with a change of 1,640 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 440 yuan, with a change of 220 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 1,800 yuan, with a change of 300 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 109,605 tons, with a change of - 168 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is not fully given; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 38,998 tons, with a change of - 894 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 52,940 tons, with a change of 910 tons; the registered warehouse receipts in January (daily, tons) is 25,180 tons, with a change of 2,039 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 132,339 yuan, with a profit of - 694 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 123,199 yuan, with a profit of 5,161 yuan [3] Production Line Maintenance - Hunan Yueneng plans to carry out maintenance on some production lines from January 1, 2026, for about one month, which is expected to reduce the output of lithium salt cathode materials by 15,000 - 35,000 tons. Wanrun New Energy started to reduce production and carry out maintenance on some production lines as scheduled from December 28, 2025, for about one month, which is expected to reduce the output of lithium iron phosphate by 5,000 - 20,000 tons [3]

中信建投证券股份有限公司 关于湖南裕能新能源电池材料股份有限公司 2025 年定期现场检查报告 | 保荐人名称：中信建投证券股份有限公司 上市公司简称：湖南裕能 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 保荐代表人姓名：张帅 联系电话：010-56051435 | | | | | 保荐代表人姓名：胡德波 联系电话：010-65608237 | | | | | 现场检查人员姓名：张帅，胡德波 | | | | | 年度 现场检查对应期间：2025 | | | | | 现场检查时间：2025 年 月 日-12 月 日 12 24 25 | | | | | 一、现场检查事项 现场检查意见 | | | | | （一）公司治理 | 是 | 否 | 不适用 | | 现场检查手段：查阅公司章程、公司治理的相关规章制度，并查阅公司相关的三会会议资料 | | | | | 及信息披露文件，访谈管理层 | | | | | 1.公司章程和公司治理制度是否完备、合规 | 是 | | | | 2.公司章程和股东会、董事会规则是否得到有效执行 | 是 | | | | 3.股东会、董事会会议记录是否完整，时间、地 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that 2026 is expected to mark the beginning of a new healthy and orderly development cycle for China's lithium battery new energy industry [3][19]. Investment Overview - In 2025, over 282 public investment projects related to the lithium battery industry chain in China are anticipated, with a total investment exceeding 820 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of over 74% [4]. - The investment projects are primarily concentrated in East and Central China, with regions like Fujian, Shandong, and Jiangsu leading in lithium battery and material manufacturing due to their rich chemical resources and strategic enterprise layouts [6]. Regional Distribution - The Southwest region, particularly Sichuan, is expected to dominate the investment in lithium battery positive materials, accounting for 59% of the projects, with a significant production capacity of over 350 GWh [11]. - Negative materials investment is more evenly distributed, with North and Northwest China favored due to lower electricity costs [11]. - The electrolyte projects are mainly concentrated in East China, benefiting from a robust industrial chain and proximity to downstream markets [11]. Overseas Expansion - Chinese lithium battery companies are increasingly focusing on overseas markets, with significant investments in Thailand, Spain, and Portugal, driven by favorable geopolitical conditions and local demand [7]. - Notable projects include the establishment of a zero-carbon AI super factory in Portugal and a joint venture factory in Spain by CATL and Stellantis [7]. Solid-State and Sodium Battery Development - In 2025, solid-state battery projects are expected to be concentrated in East China, with planned capacities of 74 GWh and total investments of 28 billion yuan [15]. - The sodium battery sector is projected to see significant growth, with planned capacities of 81 GWh and total investments of 32.2 billion yuan, primarily in the Southwest region [15]. Market Outlook - The lithium new energy industry is emerging from a challenging period characterized by supply-demand imbalances and declining prices, with positive signals indicating a recovery starting in 2025 [18]. - The demand for solid-state batteries and sodium batteries is expected to accelerate, with the latter projected to achieve a 100% increase in shipments by 2026 [19].

格隆汇1月7日丨湘潭电化(002125.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，公司持有的湖南裕能股票尚在限售期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The production of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) is projected to reach 3.915 million tons by 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 61.5% [1] Monthly Production Trends - In 2025, LFP production is expected to show a steady increase throughout the year, with production maintaining between 200,000 to 300,000 tons per month from January to May, and increasing to 300,000 to 400,000 tons from June to October, finally surpassing 400,000 tons in November and December [3] Capacity Analysis - By the end of 2025, nominal LFP production capacity is expected to reach 6.53 million tons, an increase of 950,000 tons from 5.58 million tons at the end of 2024. However, significant idle capacity exists due to high costs, outdated equipment, lack of technology, and insufficient funding. The actual production capacity of companies capable of mass production will total 5.7235 million tons, up 742,500 tons from 4.981 million tons in 2024 [5] Market Share by Company - Hunan Youneng leads the market with approximately 30% share, while other companies hold less than 10%. The second tier includes Wanrun New Energy, Defang Nano, Fulian Shenghua, Youshan Technology, Longpan Lithium Source, and Guoxuan High-Tech, each with market shares between 5% and 10%. The third tier consists of Taifeng Xianxing, Anda Technology, GCL-Poly Energy, and others, each exceeding 2% market share [8] Production Growth Rates - Among the top 20 companies, Zhongchu Innovation's 100,000-ton production line is expected to fully release in 2025, achieving a staggering growth rate of 1578%. Other companies like Bangpu Recycling and Wanhu Chemical are also projected to exceed 200% growth, while Anda Technology, GCL-Poly Energy, and Fulian Shenghua are expected to surpass 100% growth [9] Process Route Analysis - The phosphate iron process accounts for 82.1% of production, followed by ferrous oxalate, ferric nitrate, iron red, and hydrothermal methods. The latter three processes have the potential to transition from niche to mainstream as they have already achieved mass production of high-pressure solid products [11]

Core Viewpoint - Hunan YN Energy experienced a 5.02% decline in stock price, trading at 64.39 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 48.988 billion yuan as of January 7 [1] Company Overview - Hunan YN Energy New Energy Battery Materials Co., Ltd. is a major supplier of lithium-ion battery cathode materials in China, focusing on research, production, and sales of these materials [1] - The company was established on June 23, 2016, and went public on February 9, 2023 [1] - Main products include lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, primarily used in power batteries and energy storage batteries for electric vehicles and energy storage applications [1] - Revenue composition: 98.04% from phosphate cathode materials and 1.96% from other sources [1] Shareholder Insights - E Fund's Chuangye ETF (159915) is among the top ten circulating shareholders of Hunan YN Energy, having reduced its holdings by 1.349 million shares in Q3, now holding 8.552 million shares, representing 2.21% of circulating shares [2] - Estimated floating loss for E Fund's Chuangye ETF today is approximately 29.0768 million yuan [2] Fund Performance - E Fund's Chuangye ETF (159915) has a total asset size of 110.2 billion yuan, with a year-to-date return of 3.64% and a one-year return of 67.29% [2] - The fund has been managed by Cheng Xi and Liu Shurong, with Cheng having a tenure of 9 years and 248 days, and Liu having a tenure of 8 years and 176 days [3] Fund Holdings - E Fund's Yibai Intelligent Quantitative Strategy Mixed A (005437) holds 37,700 shares of Hunan YN Energy, making it the second-largest holding in the fund, with an estimated floating loss of about 128,200 yuan [4] - The fund has a total asset size of 303 million yuan, with a year-to-date return of 2.5% and a one-year return of 62.34% [4] Fund Management - The fund is managed by Yin Ming and Liu Yang, with Yin having a tenure of 4 years and 295 days, and Liu having a tenure of 127 days [5]