ITG国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 炭酸锂数据日报 白素娜 投资咨询号:Z0013700 从业资格号: F3023916 国贸期货研究院 2025/11/24 研究助理 陈宇森 从业资格号:F03123927 贵金属与新能源研究中心 据来源: SMM,公升新闻整理 平均价 100000 锂化合物 涨跌 SMM电池级碳酸锂 1000 92300 2500 80000 SMM工业级碳酸锂 89900 1000 2000 收盘价 期货合约 涨跌幅 60000 碳酸锂2512 90960 -8. 99% 91020 碳酸锂2601 -9% 40000 碳酸锂2602 -9% 91040 碳酸锂2603 91160 -8.99% 500 碳酸锂2604 91880 -8.99% 平均价 锂矿 锂辉石精矿(CIF中国) 1089 -28 = (120.5 5%-6%) | | 锂云母 (Li20:1.5%-2.0%) | 1615 | -95 | 电碳-工碳价差 元/吨 | 一 电池级碳酸锂-平均价 - 工业级碳酸锂-平均价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Core Viewpoint - Tianqi Lithium Industries experienced a 5.27% increase in stock price, reaching 56.95 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.573 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 1.92%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 93.466 billion CNY [1] Company Overview - Tianqi Lithium Industries, established on October 16, 1995, and listed on August 31, 2010, is located in Chengdu, Sichuan Province, China. The company specializes in the production and sales of lithium concentrate products and lithium compounds and their derivatives [1] - The revenue composition of Tianqi Lithium includes 50.54% from lithium compounds and derivatives, 49.25% from lithium ore, and 0.21% from other sources [1] Fund Holdings - Xinhua Fund has a significant holding in Tianqi Lithium, with its Xinhua Active Value Flexible Allocation Mixed A Fund (001681) holding 30,400 shares, accounting for 1.03% of the fund's net value, making it the fifth-largest holding [2] - The Xinhua Active Value Flexible Allocation Mixed A Fund was established on December 21, 2015, with a current size of 128 million CNY. Year-to-date returns are 10.2%, ranking 5934 out of 8145 in its category, while the one-year return is 17.06%, ranking 4084 out of 8059 [2] - The fund manager, Lin Zhai, has been in the position for 5 years and 310 days, with total assets under management of 715 million CNY. The best return during his tenure is 16.1%, while the worst is -5.55% [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The narrative of strong terminal demand continues, the de - stocking of social inventory increases, and the degree of supply - demand mismatch deepens. However, from a fundamental perspective, the hedging pressure from above is gradually released, weakening the upward momentum. The market has begun to show differences (rumors of mine resumption have emerged), and further capital, events, and news are needed to push up the price. Otherwise, the price will remain low [3] 3. Summary by Category Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 81,000 yuan with a rise of 450 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 78,800 yuan with a rise of 450 yuan [1] Lithium Futures Contracts - Lithium carbonate 2511 has a closing price of 80,620 yuan with a decline of 0.67%; lithium carbonate 2512 has a closing price of 82,100 yuan with no change; lithium carbonate 2601 has a closing price of 82,280 yuan with a decline of 0.1%; lithium carbonate 2602 has a closing price of 81,980 yuan with a rise of 0.27%; lithium carbonate 2603 has a closing price of 81,760 yuan with a rise of 0.02% [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li20: 5.5% - 6%) has an average price of 941 yuan with a decline of 3 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) has an average price of 1350 yuan with a decline of 30 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) has an average price of 2150 yuan with a decline of 30 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) has an average price of 7360 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) has an average price of 8770 yuan with a decline of 55 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 36,050 yuan with a rise of 110 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 157,950 yuan with a rise of 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 139,450 yuan with a rise of 150 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 138,150 yuan with a rise of 200 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2200 yuan with no change; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 1280 yuan with a decline of 1050 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 180 yuan with a rise of 1240 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 120 yuan with a rise of 1600 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 127,358 tons with a decline of 3008 tons; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 32,051 tons with a decline of 1630 tons; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 53,288 tons with a decline of 1987 tons; the other inventory (weekly, tons) is 42,020 tons with a rise of 610 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 27,290 tons with a decline of 331 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 80,421 yuan, and the profit is - 557 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 84,985 yuan, and the profit is - 7158 yuan [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - In the short term, there is a supply - demand mismatch due to strong terminal demand and continuous destocking of social inventory, pushing up prices. The cost support moves up due to rising ore prices, so prices are likely to move upwards. However, as prices rise, hedging positions on the supply side are gradually released, with lithium mica lithium extraction as the main incremental supply. In the long term, the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and capacity clearance is still awaited [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 78,500 with a rise of 1,950; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 76,300 with a rise of 2,000 [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) has a price of 925 with a rise of 19; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) has a price of 1,265 with a rise of 45; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) has a price of 2,065 with a rise of 75; phosphorus lithium aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) has a price of 7,415 with a rise of 165; phosphorus lithium aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) has a price of 8,825 with a rise of 225 [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 35,440 with a rise of 470; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 157,500 with a rise of 300; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 138,200 with a rise of 1,100; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 137,350 with a rise of 400 [2] Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,200 with a change of - 50; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract product is - 3,140 with a change of 2,210; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 680 with a change of - 60; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 840 with a change of 60 [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 130,366 with a change of - 2,292; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 33,681; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 55,275 with a change of - 2,460; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 41,410 with a change of 770; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 27,335 with a change of - 404 [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 79,394, and the profit is - 2,006; the cash cost of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate is 83,024, and the profit is - 7,646 [3] Industry News - Apian Capital Advisory, a UK private equity firm, is collaborating with the International Finance Corporation under the World Bank to launch a $1 - billion critical minerals, metals, and mining fund focusing on emerging markets [3]

Core Insights - As of October 10, 2025, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures closed at 72,740 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.55% and a reduction in open interest by 10,045 contracts [1][2] - In September 2025, Chile exported 15,900 tons of lithium carbonate, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 13% and a month-on-month decrease of 6%, while the export average price was 8,704 USD/ton, showing a year-on-year increase of 15% [2] Market Overview - The lithium carbonate futures market opened at 73,200 CNY/ton during the week of October 9-10, reaching a high of 75,200 CNY/ton and a low of 72,600 CNY/ton, with a weekly change of -0.55% [1] - As of October 10, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate remained stable at 73,250 CNY/ton [2] Institutional Perspectives - COFCO Futures noted that the Yichun 930 incident is reshaping the lithium mica supply landscape and market expectations for lithium carbonate. The eight involved mining companies submitted reserve reports by September 30, and it is believed that other companies may not need to halt production during the subsequent procedures, although there remains a risk of production suspension during the "ceramic soil certificate" transition period [4] - Donghai Futures highlighted that both supply and demand for lithium carbonate are increasing, with strong seasonal demand and a slight reduction in social inventory. The market fundamentals are improving, indicating limited downside potential [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Supply was slightly increased due to previous resource - end disruptions; demand growth of cathode plants was limited as new energy vehicles were in the off - season; social inventory fluctuated at a high level, with inventory moving from upstream to downstream but low actual consumption and weakened subsequent purchasing power; in September, supply and demand were expected to be in a tight balance, and futures prices were expected to fluctuate weakly, while being cautious about "small essays" from the mining end before the 30th [2] 3. Summary by Content Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 75,900 yuan/ton, down 1,600 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73,600 yuan/ton, down 1,600 yuan; the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,300 yuan/ton [1][2] Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) average price was 872 yuan, down 15 yuan; lithium mica (Li₂O: 1.5% - 2.0%) average price was 71/114 yuan, down 30 yuan; lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 2.5%) average price was 1,885 yuan, down 35 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li₂O: 6% - 7%) average price was 6,040 yuan, down 325 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li₂O: 7% - 8%) average price was 7,040 yuan, down 350 yuan [1][2] Futures Contract Prices - Lithium carbonate 2509 closed at 72,080 yuan, down 3.87%; 2510 closed at 71,860 yuan, down 3.1%; 2511 closed at 71,880 yuan, down 3.1%; 2512 closed at 72,000 yuan, down 2.62%; 2601 closed at 71,980 yuan, down 2.62% [1] Cathode Material Prices - The average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 34,210 yuan/ton, down 390 yuan; the average price of polycrystalline/power - type ternary material 811 was 145,900 yuan/ton; the average price of single - crystal/power - type ternary material 523 was 118,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the average price of single - crystal/power - type ternary material 613 was 123,725 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [2] Price Differences - The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract was 4,020 yuan, down 860 yuan; the price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was - 60 yuan, down 20 yuan; the price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract was - 140 yuan, down 160 yuan [2] Inventory - The total weekly inventory was 141,136 tons, down 407 tons; the weekly inventory of smelters was 43,336 tons, down 3,510 tons; the weekly inventory of downstream was 52,800 tons, up 1,293 tons; the weekly inventory of others was 50,000 tons, up 1,810 tons; the daily registered warehouse receipts were 2,111 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate was 75,391 yuan/ton, and the profit was - 592 yuan/ton; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate was 79,330 yuan/ton [2] Other Information - Jinan launched the third round of automobile consumption subsidies in the second half of 2025 on September 1st, with a total subsidy of 12 million yuan, valid until September 30th [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The profit margin expands, lithium carbonate production rebounds, downstream demand rises, and social inventory is depleted. In the short term, both supply and demand are strengthening. However, due to the continuous fluctuations in the Jiangxi mining end, there is a need to guard against price drops caused by "anti - involution." It is expected that the lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely. Operationally, it is recommended to conduct short - term range trading and appropriately buy options for protection (Viewpoint score: 0) [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data of Lithium Carbonate Futures - On August 19, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared to the previous day, with decreases of 1,720, 1,680, 1,820, and 1,820 yuan/ton respectively. The closing price of the active contract was 87,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,700 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The trading volume of the active contract was 734,929 lots (-301,399), and the open interest was 414,097 lots (-7,009) [1] - The inventory was 23,615 tons (+60) [1] Price of Lithium - Related Products - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 85,700 yuan/ton (+1,100), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 83,400 yuan/ton (+1,100). The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 2,300 yuan/ton [1] - The average price of lithium hydroxide (56.5% battery - grade CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 8.85 US dollars/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The average price of domestic battery - grade coarse - particle lithium hydroxide was 77,740 yuan/ton (+1,000), and the average price of domestic battery - grade micron - powder lithium hydroxide was 82,710 yuan/ton (+1,000) [1] Inventory of Lithium Carbonate - The SMM lithium carbonate inventory: The inventory of smelters was 49,693 tons (-1,306), the inventory of downstream users was 48,283 tons (+124), and the inventory of others was 44,280 tons (+1,020). The total inventory was 142,256 tons (-162) [1] Industry News - Jiangte Motor (002176.SZ) announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary, Xuancheng Jinkong New Energy Co., Ltd., has completed equipment maintenance and will resume production soon. The maintenance aimed to reduce production costs and ensure the safe and stable operation of production equipment [1] Supply and Demand Situation - On the cost side, the prices of spodumene concentrate and lithium mica remained unchanged. In terms of supply, the production of lithium carbonate increased last week. In terms of downstream demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week. In August, the production schedule of lithium cobaltate decreased, and the production schedule of lithium manganate increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, in July, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. In August, the production of energy - storage batteries increased [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is still uncertain about whether the mica mines in Jiangxi will stop production. If there is a short - term suspension for rectification and then复产 after the mining certificates are compliant, considering the large recent downstream stocking and the supplement from surrounding compliant mines, the impact on the balance sheet is expected to be limited. There may be a further increase in futures prices from a market sentiment perspective, but the upside is limited as the previous increase has already priced in the impact of the suspension [2]. - If the mining certificates are successfully renewed and production does not stop, the supply will remain in a loose pattern. Considering the large downstream stocking, full previous pricing, and small increase in downstream production scheduling, the futures prices may be revised downwards and return to the fundamental logic [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 71,100 yuan, with a daily increase of 150 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 69,000 yuan, with a daily increase of 150 yuan [1]. Lithium Futures Contracts - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2508 is 70,000 yuan, with a daily increase of 3.24%; for 2509, it is 71,920 yuan, with a 5.3% increase; for 2510, it is 72,200 yuan, with a 5.31% increase; for 2511, it is 72,300 yuan, with a 5.36% increase; for 2512, it is 72,580 yuan, with a 5.34% increase [1]. Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 757 yuan, with a daily increase of 9 yuan. The price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1090 yuan, with a daily increase of 25 yuan; for lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%), it is 1750 yuan, with a 60 - yuan increase; for phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%), it is 5550 yuan, with a 275 - yuan increase; for phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%), it is 6500 yuan, with a 300 - yuan increase [1][2]. Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,570 yuan, with a 35 - yuan increase; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 145,260 yuan, with a 30 - yuan increase; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 116,945 yuan, with a 50 - yuan increase; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 122,535 yuan, with a 20 - yuan increase [2]. Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2100 yuan, with a change of 0.2 yuan; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 1200 yuan, with a change of - 2530 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 280 yuan, with a change of - 80 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 380 yuan, with a change of - 20 yuan [2]. Inventory - The total weekly inventory is 142,418 tons, with an increase of 692 tons. The weekly inventory of smelters is 50,999 tons, with a decrease of 959 tons; the weekly inventory of downstream is 48,159 tons, with an increase of 2271 tons; the weekly inventory of others is 43,260 tons, with a decrease of 620 tons; the daily registered warehouse receipts are 16,443 tons, with an increase of 1420 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 68,214 yuan, and the profit is 1863 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 75,753 yuan, and the profit is - 7557 yuan [2].

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The price of lithium carbonate is falling, and the demand - side production increase is small. The support below the price is weak. In the short term, the futures price may continue to be under pressure [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,200 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 69,100 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [1] - Futures prices of lithium carbonate contracts from 2508 to 2512 are all falling, with the 2508 contract closing at 67,300 yuan, down 3.19% [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) price is 760 yuan, with no change [1] - Lithium mica prices range from 1,085 yuan to 1,710 yuan depending on Li₂O content; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone prices range from 5,275 yuan to 6,200 yuan and are falling [2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,595 yuan, down 35 yuan; the average prices of ternary materials 811, 523, and 613 are rising [2] Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 3,360 yuan, up 1,050 yuan [2] Inventory - Total inventory (weekly) is 141,726 tons, down 1,444 tons; smelter inventory (weekly) is 51,958 tons, down 3,427 tons; downstream inventory (weekly) is 45,888 tons, up 3,073 tons; other inventory (weekly) is 43,880 tons, down 1,090 tons; registered warehouse receipts (daily) are 14,443 tons, up 1,840 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 68,421 yuan, and the profit is 7,529 yuan; the profit of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is - 6,997 yuan [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core View of the Report - The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on July 30 pointed out the need to deepen reforms, promote the development of new - quality productivity through scientific and technological innovation, and optimize market competition order. It also mentioned governing disorderly competition among enterprises and promoting capacity governance in key industries. The market sentiment may cool down due to the Politburo's stance on anti - involution and "low - price" expressions. In the short term, although downstream stocking is significant, downstream production scheduling has not increased, and the actual consumption of inventory is limited. There is a possibility of capital re - entry, and prices are expected to be mainly in a weak oscillation. Industrial players can consider hedging on price rallies [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 72,000 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan [1]. - SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 69,900 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan [1]. - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. Lithium Compound Futures - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2508 is 68,000 yuan/ton, down 4.87% [1]. - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2509 is 68,280 yuan/ton, down 4.66% [1]. - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2510 is 68,440 yuan/ton, down 4.01% [1]. - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2511 is 68,600 yuan/ton, down 3.98% [1]. - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2512 is 69,120 yuan/ton, down 3.46% [1]. Lithium Ore Prices - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 766 yuan, down 10 yuan [1]. - The price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,120 yuan, down 20 yuan [2]. - The price of lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,750 yuan, down 25 yuan [2]. - The price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 5,325 yuan, down 350 yuan [2]. - The price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 6,250 yuan, down 375 yuan [2]. Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,885 yuan, down 305 yuan [2]. - The average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 145,130 yuan, up 90 yuan [2]. - The average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 116,895 yuan, down 100 yuan [2]. - The average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 122,455 yuan, up 80 yuan [2]. Price Spreads - The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 3,720 yuan, an increase of 1,370 yuan [2]. - The price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 280 yuan, an increase of 60 yuan [2]. - The price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 440 yuan, a decrease of 60 yuan [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 141,726 tons, down 1,444 tons [2]. - The inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 51,958 tons, down 3,427 tons [2]. - The inventory of downstream enterprises (weekly, tons) is 45,888 tons, up 3,073 tons [2]. - The inventory of other sectors (weekly, tons) is 43,880 tons, down 1,090 tons [2]. - The registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 5,545 tons, down 6,731 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 68,893 yuan, and the profit is 7,621 yuan [3]. - The cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is not clearly stated, and the profit is - 7,136 yuan [3].