1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The top of the freight rate has likely been reached, as Maersk's freight rate for the first week of the second half of July remained unchanged, and MSC's freight rate for the second half of July also remained the same as the first half. It is necessary to monitor the freight rate follow - up of other shipping companies, especially the PA Alliance [4]. - During the off - season, the EC2510 contract can be sold on rallies for hedging when the freight rate is falling [5]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Market Analysis - **European Routes**: Different shipping companies have different price quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 29 is 1780/2980; HPL's quotes vary for different shipping periods. MSC + Premier Alliance and Ocean Alliance also have their own price quotes [1]. - **US Routes**: Earlier, the supply and demand of the US routes both increased, and the supply recovered rapidly. The freight rates on the US East and West routes have fallen from their highs. The weekly average capacity of the Shanghai - US East and West routes in June was 350,000 TEU, 243,400 TEU in May, 359,000 TEU in July, and 299,000 TEU in August. Maersk's Shanghai - Los Angeles price in week 29 is 1456/1820 (compared to 4296/5360 in the first half of June), and the Shanghai - New York price in week 28 is 3625 dollars/FEU (compared to 6410 dollars/FEU in the first half of June) [2]. II. Geopolitical Impact - Geopolitical events such as the Israeli air strikes in Gaza, the situation of the cease - fire agreement draft, and the US and Iran's statements may have an impact on the shipping market, but the specific impact is not elaborated in detail [2]. III. Shipping Capacity - **European Routes**: The monthly average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - European base ports was 261,900 TEU in July and 269,900 TEU in August. There were 8 blank sailings in July (5 by the OA Alliance and 3 by the MSC/PA Alliance) and 2 in August (both by the OA Alliance). The decrease in capacity in July was mainly due to the skipping of Shanghai ports by MSC's ALBATROS route from week 28 to week 31, with a reduction of about 15,000 TEU of allocated shipping capacity [3]. IV. Freight Rate Analysis - **European Routes**: The freight rate top has likely emerged. Historically, the Shanghai - European base port freight rate generally peaked around week 34. In 2024, it peaked in mid - July, and there is a strong game between the August contract expectations and reality. The delivery settlement price of the EC2508 contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on August 11th, 18th, and 25th [4]. V. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of July 3, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 83,654 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 63,574 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 at 1325.20, EC2604 at 1174.20, EC2506 at 1310.00, EC2508 at 1883.50, EC2510 at 1367.90, and EC2512 at 1528.00 [5][6]. - **Spot Prices**: On June 27th, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 2030 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 2578 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 4717 dollars/FEU. On July 1st, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2123.24 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1619.19 points [6]. VI. Container Ship Delivery - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship delivery. As of June 28, 2025, 135 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.069 million TEU. Among them, 41 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 615,000 TEU, and 6 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU [7]. VII. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: The main contract fluctuates. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Go long on the December contract and short on the October contract [7].

集运指数（欧线）：08 震荡整理；10 空单轻仓持 有 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 昨日收盘价 日涨跌 昨日成交 昨日持仓 持仓变动 昨日成交/持仓 前日成交/持仓 EC2508 1,883.5 1.67% 44,193 36,335 -4,141 1.22 1.70 EC2510 1,367.9 -0.07% 14,562 31,302 -204 0.47 0.69 EC2512 1,528.0 0.10% 2,984 6,171 -15 0.48 0.56 单位 SCFIS：欧洲航线 点 SCFIS：美西航线 点 单位 SCFI：欧洲航线 $/TEU SCFI：美西航线 $/FEU $/40'GP $/20'GP Maersk 39 2980 1780 MSC 46 3640 2180 OOCL 37 3500 2100 EMC 37 3660 2405 CMA 37 3445 1935 ONE 47 3343 ...

Pricing Information - As of July 1, the spot rates for major shipping companies are as follows: Maersk at $1777/TEU and $2970/TEU; CMA at $1935-$2185/TEU and $3445-$3945/TEU; MSC at $2180/TEU and $3640/TEU; ONE at $2604-$3094/TEU and $3343-$4043/TEU; EMC at $2100-$2655/TEU and $3100-$4060/TEU [1] Shipping Index - As of June 30, the SCFIS European line index is reported at 2123.24 points, a 10% increase month-on-month, while the US West Coast index decreased by 22% to 1619.19 points. The SCFI composite index as of June 27 is at 1861.51 points, down 0.4% from the previous period. The Shanghai-Europe freight rate increased by 10% to $2030/TEU, while the Shanghai-US West Coast rate is $2578/FEU, down 7% from the previous week, and the Shanghai-US East Coast rate is $4717/FEU, down 12% from the previous week [2] Market Fundamentals - As of July 1, the global container shipping capacity stands at 32.61 million TEU, an 8% increase year-on-year. In terms of demand, the Eurozone's composite PMI for June is 50.2, with manufacturing PMI at 49.4 and services PMI at 50.0. The US manufacturing PMI for May is at 48.5, with the new orders index at 47.6. The OECD leading index for the G7 group recorded 100.32 in May [3] Market Logic - The futures market saw an increase yesterday, with the main contract for August closing at 1904.9 points, up 8.15%. The market opened higher in the afternoon, influenced by some airlines' higher quotes for the second half of July, raising expectations for August pricing. The previous forecast remains that a significant drop in actual prices for August is unlikely. Airlines may initially set higher August quotes and adjust based on actual transaction conditions. The price trend requires close monitoring, with the main contract expected to show a fluctuating pattern, but the rising spot prices suggest an upward shift in the fluctuation price center [4] Operational Recommendations - The market is advised to take a cautious wait-and-see approach, with expectations for the main contract to fluctuate between 1800 and 2000 points [5]

黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2508 | 1,904.9 | 7.80% | 68,840 | 40,476 | 1,248 | 1.70 | | 0.83 | | 期货 | EC2510 | 1,383.8 | 3.28% | 21,666 | 31,506 | 1,385 | 0.69 | | 0.33 | | | EC2512 | 1,538.0 | 2.67% | 3,471 | 6,186 | 359 | 0.56 | | 0.28 | | | | | 本期 | | 2025/6/30 | 单位 | | 周涨幅 | | | | SCFIS： 欧洲航线 | | 2, ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Futures Contracts - EC2506 had a closing price of 1888.5 with a 0.04% increase, a basis of 234.7, a trading volume of 225, an open interest of 2053, and a decrease of 78 in open interest [2]. - EC2508 had a closing price of 1761.4 with a 2.42% decrease, a basis of 361.8, a trading volume of 32689, an open interest of 39228, and an increase of 168 in open interest [2]. - EC2510 had a closing price of 1339.0 with a 0.99% increase, a basis of 784.2, a trading volume of 10051, an open interest of 30121, and an increase of 401 in open interest [2]. - EC2512 had a closing price of 1500.0 with a 0.33% increase, a basis of 623.2, a trading volume of 1654, an open interest of 5827, and a decrease of 1339 in open interest [2]. - EC2602 had a closing price of 1307.8 with a 0.71% decrease, a basis of 815.4, a trading volume of 564, an open interest of 3757, and a decrease of 101 in open interest [2]. - EC2604 had a closing price of 1169.8 with a 0.07% decrease, a basis of 953.4, a trading volume of 928, an open interest of 5529, and a decrease of 42 in open interest [2]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The spread between EC2506 - 2508 was 127.1 (previous day), 82.7 (two days ago), 126.0 currently, with a month - on - month change of 44.4 and a week - on - week change of 11.0 [2]. - The spread between EC2508 - 2510 was 422.4 (previous day), 479.1 (two days ago), 434.3 currently, with a month - on - month change of - 56.7 and a week - on - week change of - 45.0 [2]. - The spread between EC2506 - 2510 was 561.8 (two days ago), 560.3 currently, with a month - on - month change of - 12.3 and a week - on - week change of - 34.0 [2]. - The spread between EC2510 - 2512 was - 161.0 (previous day), - 169.1 (two days ago), - 163.5 currently, with a month - on - month change of 8.1 and a week - on - week change of - 8.1 [2]. - The spread between EC2512 - 2602 was 192.2 (previous day), 177.8 (two days ago), 171.7 currently, with a month - on - month change of 14.4 and a week - on - week change of 41.3 [2]. Shipping Indexes - SCHIS was updated weekly, with a value of 2123.24 on 2025/6/30, a previous value of 1937.14, and an increase of 9.61% [2]. - SCFI was updated hourly, with a value of 2030 on 2025/6/27, a previous value of 1835, and an increase of 10.63% [2]. - CCFI was updated hourly, with a value of 1640.72 on 2025/6/27, a previous value of 1578.6, and an increase of 3.94% [2]. - NCFI was updated weekly, with a value of 1442.95 on 2025/6/27, a previous value of 1299.58, and an increase of 11.03% [2]. - TCI was updated daily, with a value of 957.21 on 2025/6/30, a previous value of 937.12, and an increase of 2.14% [2]. Capacity Arrangement - In July and August 2025 (tentatively), the average weekly capacity was 299,000 TEU and 305,000 TEU respectively. The first week of July had good cargo intake but no over - booking. The capacity in the second and fourth weeks was neutral, while the third week was high, which could suppress freight rates. In week 33, there was one new blank sailing, and there were ship delays for PA & MSC [2]. Recent European Line Quotations - Shipping companies announced price increases for July. MSK opened at $3400, and others were mostly between $3500 - $4000. In the first week, some shipping companies reduced prices, and MSK dropped to $3100, with the final average price of shipping companies at $3400 (equivalent to 2400 points on the futures market). In the second week, MSK opened at $2900, and the current average quotation of shipping companies was equivalent to 2300 points on the futures market [3]. News - On June 30, the Qatari Foreign Ministry stated that the cease - fire negotiation in the Gaza Strip had not restarted, and relevant parties were in contact to determine the schedule and plan for the new round of negotiation. Qatar was pressuring relevant parties to decouple the cease - fire negotiation from the provision of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip and accused Israel of preventing humanitarian aid from entering the Gaza Strip [4]. - On June 30, the Iranian Armed Forces stated that they were ready to respond to any new acts of aggression [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a clear industry investment rating but offers trading strategies and potential price ranges for specific contracts [14] Core Viewpoints - The spot freight rate index SCFIS increased by 9.6% on June 30, exceeding expectations. The current 08 contract is at a discount to the spot freight rate in early July. Ship - owners' pricing strategies vary, with Maersk adopting a low - price strategy, while the OA and PA alliances may raise prices in mid - July. If the spot freight rate rises in late July, the 2508 contract may experience a small subsidy water market; if the price increase fails, the 2508 contract's neutral valuation is around 1750 points. The strategy is to short the 2510 contract at high prices, with the upper pressure level at 1500 points [11][12][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Data - Yesterday, the container shipping index fluctuated weakly. The main 2508 contract closed at 1761.4 points, down 1.92%; the second - main 2510 contract closed at 1339.0 points, up 0.31%. The EC2506 final delivery settlement price was 1919.3 points [11] 2. Freight Index Data - On June 30, the SCFIS index was reported at 2123.24 points, a 9.6% increase. The index converted to spot freight is about $3050/FEU, corresponding to the average FAK of shipping companies in late June. The FAK of shipping companies in early July is between $2900 - $3640/FEU, with an average of about $3400/FEU, corresponding to an SCFIS index of around 2380 points in early July [11] 3. Spot Freight Data - Maersk lowered its price by $200/FEU in the second week of July, while other shipping companies' list prices did not follow the large - scale price cut. The OA alliance's FAK price is between $3500 - $3560/FEU, the PA alliance's list price is between $3300 - $3400/FEU, and MSC's NAC price in early July is $3640/FEU [12] 4. Fundamental Data - In July, there was 1 additional blank sailing and 1 additional pending voyage compared to last week. In August, the number of blank sailings remains at 4, and the number of pending voyages is revised down from 3 to 1. If pending voyages are not considered, the average weekly capacity in August is 30.6 million TEU/week; if considered, it rises to 31 million TEU/week. It is expected that the space for shipping companies to actively reduce capacity in August is relatively limited [13][14] 5. Market Outlook and Strategy - Due to the incomplete start of Christmas cargo exports and concentrated shipments from long - term contract customers, the cargo volume is expected to have a normal seasonal increase in July, with a possible turning point at the end of July. The increase in capacity in July is roughly equivalent to the historical increase in cargo volume. The strategy is to short the 2510 contract at high prices, with the upper pressure level at 1500 points [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The core view is to short 2510 at high levels. In the past week, the container shipping index first declined and then rebounded. The earlier decline was mainly due to Maersk's low opening price, leading to a bearish sentiment. The later rebound was mainly because the expectation of falling freight rates was gradually fully priced in, coupled with potential positive news on tariffs, and the market reduced positions and rose. The main 2508 contract closed at 1805 points, and the secondary main 2510 contract closed at 1325.9 points [1][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Overview - The container shipping index showed a trend of first falling and then rising in the past week. The main 2508 contract closed at 1805 points, and the secondary main 2510 contract closed at 1325.9 points [4]. 2. Price 2.1 Spot Freight and Index Tracking - On June 23, the SCFIS mainly reflected the price of containers departing in week 25, which was dragged down by the ship schedule delays and container dumping in week 24, and the index closed at 1937.1 points, basically in line with the expected 1920 points. - On June 30, the SCFIS index mainly reflected the price of containers departing in week 26, which would be affected by the ship schedule delays in week 25 and the dumping of low - priced containers in the first half - month for two weeks. However, Evergreen's slight increase of $100/FEU at the end of the month had a certain pulling effect on the index. As of Sunday's ship schedule data, 4 ships in week 25 were delayed to week 25, with 1, 2, and 1 ships from Evergreen, PA, and MSC respectively, with a total delayed capacity of 62,000 TEU. There were 8 normal non - delayed ships in week 26, with a total capacity of 158,000 TEU. It was expected that the index for this period would be around 2020 points. - Overall, the settlement price of the 06 contract was expected to be around 1885 points [18][19]. 2.2 Seasonal Trends of Global Main Route Freight Rates - The document presented the seasonal trends of SCFI freight rates for multiple routes including Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - Mediterranean, etc. from 2019 - 2025 [24]. 3. Demand Side 3.1 US Import - US import container volume data was presented in both weekly and monthly formats, including imports from major countries and regions such as China, Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and India. In May, the total US import container volume was 2,320,538 TEU, with a year - on - year increase of 2.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.6%. The cumulative import volume for the whole year was 12,375,213 TEU, with a year - on - year increase of 9.9%. - US imports from China in May were 753,070 TEU, with a year - on - year decrease of 17.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 17.5%. The cumulative imports from China for the whole year were 4,668,156 TEU, with a year - on - year increase of 6.5% [28][29]. 3.2 China's Export Perspective - In May, China's exports to the US declined further, with the year - on - year decline expanding from - 21% in April to - 34%. Exports to the EU increased, with the year - on - year growth rate rising from 8% in April to 12%. Exports to ASEAN increased at a slower pace, with the year - on - year growth rate falling from 21% in April to 15% [39]. 3.3 Asia's Export Perspective - Asia - Europe (Northwest Europe + Mediterranean) container trade volume data from 2011 - 2025 was presented. In April, Asia's container exports to Europe were 1.6422 million TEU, with a month - on - month increase of 1.9% and a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. The cumulative year - on - year increase from January to April was 9.4%. - Asia - North America container trade volume data from 2011 - 2025 was presented. In April, Asia's container exports to North America were 1.705 million TEU, with a month - on - month decrease of 13.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.4%. The cumulative year - on - year increase from January to April was 3.7% [43][48]. 4. Supply Side 4.1 European Route Ship Schedule - In July, compared with last week, there was 1 additional blank sailing and 1 additional undetermined voyage. The additional blank sailing was LION in the second week of July (week 28), and the additional undetermined voyage was FP2 at the end of July (week 31). If undetermined voyages were not considered, the average weekly capacity in July was revised down from 306,000 TEU/week to 300,000 TEU/week; if included, it was 302,000 TEU/week. - In August, the number of blank sailings remained at 4, and the number of undetermined voyages was revised down from 3 to 1. If undetermined voyages were not considered, the average weekly capacity in August was 306,000 TEU/week; if considered, it increased to 310,000 TEU/week. It was expected that the space for shipping companies to actively reduce capacity in August was relatively limited [63][64]. 4.2 Dynamic Capacity - Idle Capacity and Speed - In the past week, the speed of the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU container fleet remained at a high - level shock around 15.4 knots, and the speed of the 17,000+ TEU container fleet also had a high - level shock around 15.6 knots. - The number of idle ships in the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU container fleet was 4, and the number of idle ships in the 17,000+ TEU container fleet was 3 [74][75]. 4.3 Turnover Efficiency - Regional Congestion - It was expected that the in - port capacity of North American ports would recover at the end of June, and the probability of port congestion similar to that in 2021 on the US routes was currently low. - The congestion situation in European ports had improved, while the congestion in Chinese ports had recently intensified [80]. 4.4 Static Capacity - New Ship Delivery - For 12,000 - 16,999 TEU container ships, the top ten liner companies received 3 ships in June, with COSCO receiving 1 ship (COSCO Shipping Yangpu) deployed on the US route, and ONE receiving 2 ships (One Sapphire deployed on the Asia Latin America Express 1). From January to June, the top ten liner companies received a total of 36 ships (552,000 TEU), of which 10 ships (157,000 TEU) were deployed on the European routes. - For 17,000+ TEU container ships, Hapag - Lloyd and CMA CGM received 1 ship each in June, which were deployed on the European routes AE2 and FAL3 respectively. From January to June, the top ten liner companies received a total of 6 ships (142,000 TEU), all deployed on the European routes. - In the next 7 months (from June to December 2025), the top ten liner companies were expected to receive 43 ships (625,000 TEU) of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU, and only Evergreen had a plan to deliver 1 large ship of 24,000 TEU for 17,000+ TEU container ships [82][83]. 5. Trading Logic and Strategy Recommendations - The 2508 contract was under a lot of short - allocation pressure based on the logic that the peak of July freight rates had appeared and the inflection point might occur in early July. The future game point was the implementation amplitude of the OA alliance's price increase in mid - July and the decline speed of freight rates in August. It was recommended to short the 2508 contract at high levels, with a neutral valuation reference of 1750 points (corresponding to $2500/FEU). - The 2510 contract was based on the "US inventory replenishment expectation" and the "low valuation" logic, and the decline process might not be smooth. It was recommended to short the 2510 contract at high levels, with the upper pressure level reference of 1500 points [5].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be volatile in the short term. The 08 contract is likely to remain in a temporary volatile market, and for the 2510 contract, it is recommended to short on rallies, with attention to geopolitical situation changes [14][15][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Futures Data**: On June 26, 2025, the closing price of EC2506 was 1,885.9, down 0.06%; EC2508 was 1,759.9, up 1.24%; and EC2510 was 1,325.6, up 2.88%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed to varying degrees [1] - **Freight Index**: The SCFIS European route index was 1,937.14, up 14.1% week - on - week; the SCFIS US West route index was 2,083.46, down 28.4% week - on - week. The SCFI European route index was 1,835 $/TEU, down 0.5% bi - weekly; the SCFI US West route index was 2,772 $/FEU, down 32.7% bi - weekly [1] - **Spot Freight Rates**: The opening price of Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam route in the second week of July was 2,960 $/40'GP and 1,770 $/20'GP. Different carriers' freight rates for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route varied, with prices ranging from 2,035 - 3,860 $/40'GP and 1,770 - 2,555 $/20'GP [1] - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 97.31, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.17 [1] 3.2 Shipping Capacity Data of China - European Base Routes - **Weekly Shipping Capacity**: There are different scenarios for weekly shipping capacity, including cases where undetermined voyages are not included and cases where they are included. The total weekly shipping capacity of different alliances shows fluctuations [5][11] - **Monthly Average Weekly Shipping Capacity**: The monthly average weekly shipping capacity in 2024 and 2025 also shows certain trends, with different data for each month [9][10] - **Shipping Schedule from June to August**: The shipping schedules of different alliances from June to August are provided, including details of ships and voyages. In July, there are no undetermined voyages, with a weekly average shipping capacity of 30.6 million TEU/week. In August, if undetermined voyages are not considered, the weekly average shipping capacity is 30.5 million TEU/week; if considered, it rises to 31.4 million TEU/week [7][13] 3.3 Macroeconomic News - **US - Iran Nuclear Negotiation News**: The Trump administration has discussed helping Iran obtain up to $30 billion for civilian nuclear energy projects, relaxing sanctions, and unfreezing restricted funds to encourage Iran to return to the negotiation table. However, Iran's foreign minister said there are currently no plans to restart nuclear negotiations [12][15] - **Military Conflict News**: The Israeli military said the Houthi rebels in Yemen launched a ballistic missile at Israel, which landed outside Israel [15] 3.4 Market Analysis and Strategy Suggestions - **July Market**: Affected by Maersk's low - price pricing strategy, the freight rate peak may appear in early July. The effective shipping capacity in July increased by 3.5% month - on - month, similar to the historical monthly increase in cargo volume. The 08 contract is expected to be in a volatile market [14] - **October Market**: October is a traditional off - peak season for the European line. The 2510 contract has insufficient upward momentum, and it is recommended to short on rallies. The bottom valuation can refer to the lowest quotation range of shipping companies in the first half of the year, and in extreme cases, it may fall to the cash - flow cost price range [15][16] 3.5 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European line) is 0, indicating a neutral trend [17]

资料来源：同花顺 iFind，Geek Rate，公司官网，国泰君安期货研究 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | EC2506 | 1,885.3 | -0.21% | 783 | 2,491 | -285 | 0.31 | 0.42 | | | EC2508 | 1,740.2 | -3.07% | 50,789 | 43,528 | -1,263 | 1.17 | 1.60 | | | EC2510 | 1,292.8 | -2.31% | 12,394 | 31,546 | -75 | 0.39 | 0.68 | | | | 本 期 | | 2025/6/23 | | 单 位 | | 周涨幅 | | | SCFIS： 欧洲航线 | | 1,937.14 | | | 点 | | 14.1% | | 运 价 | SCFIS： 美西航线 | | 2,083.46 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the container shipping market, some shipping companies followed MSK to lower spot quotes, and the EC disk remained volatile and weak under pessimistic expectations. The latest SCFIS European line quote was in line with expectations. The spot freight rate has gradually recovered, but Maersk's price cut has led to concerns about a market inflection point. In the short term, the market sentiment is expected to be weak. The extension of the 90 - day tariff exemption period in Sino - US negotiations may reduce the pressure of ship overflow from the US line to the European line, but the height of freight rates in the long - term is not optimistic. Supply and demand are expected to increase in July. The volatile Middle - East geopolitical situation may cause large fluctuations in the disk [4][5]. - In the dry bulk shipping market, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index ended a five - day losing streak, driven by the rise in Panamax ship freight rates. The Capesize ship freight index declined, while the Supramax bulk carrier freight index increased. The market is expected to enter a short - term correction phase, and the medium - sized ship market's freight rates are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [11][14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Disk - Contract EC2506 closed at 1,885.3, down 0.15% with a trading volume of 783.0 hands (down 33.53%) and an open interest of 2,491.0 hands (down 10.27%) [2]. - Contract EC2508 closed at 1,740.2, down 1.79% with a trading volume of 50,789.0 hands (down 29.08%) and an open interest of 43,528.0 hands (down 2.82%) [2]. - Other contracts also showed different price, volume, and open - interest changes [2]. Month - to - Month Structure - The spread between EC06 - EC08 was 145, up 29; the spread between EC06 - EC10 was 593, up 9, etc. [2]. Container Freight Rates - SCFIS European line (weekly) was 1937.14 points, up 14.11% week - on - week and down 59.35% year - on - year. SCFIS US West line was 2083.46 points, down 28.37% week - on - week and down 48.74% year - on - year [2]. Fuel Costs - WTI crude oil near - month was $63.81 per barrel, down 3.39% week - on - week and down 21.16% year - on - year; Brent crude oil near - month was $66.84 per barrel, down 4.14% week - on - week and down 21.5% year - on - year [2]. Dry Bulk Shipping Dry Bulk Freight Index (Daily) - BDI was 1681.00, up 0.42% day - on - day and down 15.82% year - on - year; BHSI was 628, unchanged day - on - day and down 16.60% year - on - year [11]. - Other indices also had corresponding changes [11]. Dry Bulk Freight Rates (Daily) - The freight rate of the Capesize iron ore route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) was $23.18 per ton, up 3.14% day - on - day; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao (BCI - C5) was $8.92 per ton, down 2.75% day - on - day [11]. Dry Bulk Freight Rates (Weekly) - The freight rate of the Capesize bauxite route from Guinea to Yantai was $22.95 per ton, down 16.09% week - on - week; the freight rate of the Panamax coal route from Samarinda, Indonesia to Ennore, India was $10.50 per ton, up 5.00% week - on - week [11]. Fuel Costs - WTI crude oil near - month was $63.81 per barrel, down 3.39% week - on - week and down 21.16% year - on - year; Brent crude oil near - month was $66.84 per barrel, down 4.14% week - on - week and down 21.5% year - on - year [11]. Shipment Data - From June 16th to June 22nd, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3506.7 million tons, up 154.0 million tons week - on - week. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 3060.9 million tons, up 218.8 million tons week - on - week [13]. - It is expected that Brazil's soybean exports in June will reach 1437 million tons. In May, China imported 1211 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, a year - on - year increase of 37.5%, and 163 million tons from the US, a year - on - year increase of 28.3% [13]. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Container Shipping - **Logic Analysis**: Spot freight rates have gradually recovered, but Maersk's price cut has affected market sentiment. The extension of the tariff exemption period in Sino - US negotiations may reduce the pressure of ship overflow from the US line to the European line. Supply and demand are expected to increase in July, and the volatile Middle - East geopolitical situation may cause large fluctuations in the disk [4][5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be cautious and wait and see, paying attention to trade negotiations and geopolitical changes. For arbitrage, the 6 - 8 reverse spread should be exited when it is high as EC06 approaches delivery, and the 10 - 12 reverse spread should be rolled [6]. Dry Bulk Shipping - **Logic Analysis**: The Capesize ship market in Australia was quiet with slightly lower freight rates, while the Atlantic market had more cargo and slightly higher freight rates. The Panamax ship market had more coal cargoes in July, and freight rates increased slightly. The market is expected to enter a short - term correction phase, and the medium - sized ship market's freight rates are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [14]. Industry News - The EU is preparing more tariff counter - measures to pressure the US [6]. - Powell said the current policy is in a favorable position and can wait and see before considering interest rate adjustments [7]. - Before the negotiation deadline, an EU official warned that the EU must issue a "credible threat" to retaliate in the trade war initiated by Trump [7]. - Trump said both Israel and Iran violated the cease - fire agreement but would not face consequences, and he no longer hoped for a regime change in Iran [8]. - Qatar's Prime Minister said that indirect talks between Hamas and Israel will be held in the next two days to reach a cease - fire agreement [8]. - The Israeli military chief of staff said the focus will return to Gaza to retrieve hostages and destroy Hamas' rule [8]. - Netanyahu refused Trump's request to completely cancel the strike on Iran [9]. - Netanyahu said Israel will take action with the same force if someone tries to resume the nuclear project [9]. - On June 24th, the Israeli Air Force destroyed a radar facility near Tehran, and then suspended further military strikes after a call between Trump and Netanyahu [9][16]. - From June 16th to June 22nd, 2024, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1257.2 million tons, up 31.0 million tons week - on - week [15]. - In May 2025, China imported 1247.7 million tons of coal from Indonesia, a month - on - month decrease of 12.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.5% [15].