Group 1 - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 1.09% on January 8 [1] - Key Chinese stocks saw significant gains, with GDS Holdings rising over 8% and Bilibili increasing by more than 6% [1] - Tencent Music and Alibaba both rose by over 5%, while other companies like Kingsoft Cloud and Xpeng Motors saw increases of over 3% [1] Group 2 - JD.com and Vipshop experienced gains of over 2%, while ZTO Express and Futu Holdings rose by more than 1% [1] - Ctrip and NetEase had slight increases, indicating a generally positive market sentiment for these companies [1] - Conversely, Baidu and Bawang Tea House fell by over 3%, with Manbang and NIO also experiencing declines of more than 1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. has shown positive stock performance, with a 3.30% increase over the past month and a 21.17% increase over the past year, leading to optimism among long-term shareholders, while concerns about potential overvaluation based on the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio are also present [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The current trading price of ZTO Express is $21.51, reflecting a 0.84% increase in the current session [1]. - Over the past month, ZTO Express stock has increased by 3.30% [1]. - In the past year, the stock has appreciated by 21.17% [1]. Group 2: Price-to-Earnings Ratio Analysis - The P/E ratio is a critical metric for evaluating the company's market performance, comparing the current share price to the company's earnings per share (EPS) [4]. - A higher P/E ratio suggests that investors expect better future performance, which may indicate overvaluation, but it can also reflect a willingness to pay a premium for anticipated growth [4]. - ZTO Express has a lower P/E ratio compared to the Air Freight & Logistics industry average of 22.04, which may imply that the stock is undervalued or that investors expect it to perform worse than peers [5]. Group 3: Limitations of P/E Ratio - While a lower P/E can indicate undervaluation, it may also suggest a lack of expected future growth from shareholders [7]. - The P/E ratio should not be used in isolation; other factors such as industry trends and business cycles also influence stock prices [7]. - Investors are advised to consider the P/E ratio alongside other financial metrics and qualitative analyses for informed investment decisions [7].

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is expected to maintain a single-digit growth rate, with a projected year-on-year increase of 5% in express delivery volume by November 2025, indicating a continued trend of slow growth and effective implementation of anti-involution policies [1][2][4]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Trends - The express delivery volume growth rate is expected to drop to single digits in Q4, with the Double Eleven shopping festival showing a year-on-year increase of 9%, a slowdown compared to the 21% growth in 2024 [2]. - The anti-involution measures implemented since July 2025 have effectively driven price recovery in the e-commerce express delivery sector, which may influence the growth trend of small and light packages and enhance the quality of express delivery demand [2][3]. Group 2: Profitability and Market Share - The anti-involution policies have led to an increase in single-package revenue, with YTO, Yunda, and Shentong seeing increases of 0.16, 0.25, and 0.44 yuan per package respectively since July [3]. - The market concentration has stabilized, with the industry CR8 remaining at 86.9 in November, indicating a slight recovery in market share for YTO since Q4 2025, attributed to AI integration and infrastructure upgrades [3]. - The net profit margins for major companies in Q3 2025 were as follows: Zhongtong -0.9%, YTO +0.07%, Yunda -1.5%, and Shentong +0.5% year-on-year, with expectations for continued profitability recovery in Q4 [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Future Outlook - The anti-involution measures have been effectively enforced, with the State Post Bureau emphasizing the need to combat "involutionary" competition, leading to price stabilization and gradual expansion of price increases to key regions [4]. - The positive effects of the current anti-involution policies are expected to continue, supporting healthy competition and ongoing profitability recovery in the industry [4]. - Future focus should be on the regulatory strength of anti-involution measures and the competitive strategies of companies within the industry [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The recommendation is to maintain a bullish rating on the express delivery sector, highlighting leading companies such as Zhongtong Express and Jitu Express, which are expected to benefit from profitability improvements and high overseas volume growth [5]. - SF Express is noted for its operational mechanisms that drive volume growth, with short-term performance fluctuations attributed to proactive market expansion strategies and necessary long-term investments [5].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry: Real Estate Core Insights and Arguments - The overall real estate market is expected to maintain a downward trend in 2026, but the decline may slow compared to 2024 and 2025. The reasoning is based on a cautious and reactive policy stance, similar to 2025, with no significant stimulus expected in the first half of the year [2][3] - The anticipated decline in sales volume for both new and second-hand homes is projected to be in the mid-single digits compared to 2025. New home sales are expected to decline by a high single-digit percentage, while second-hand home sales may see a decrease of 3% to 5% [3][4] - Second-hand home prices are expected to drop by a high single-digit percentage in 2026, reflecting a slight slowdown from the low double-digit decline in 2025. This is attributed to high inventory levels, despite a recent slowdown in new listings [5][6] - The land sales situation remains weak, with a 13% year-on-year decline in land sales in 300 cities as of November 2025. This is expected to translate into a decrease in new construction starts in 2026, with a projected decline of around 15% to 16% compared to 2025 [6][7] - The real estate market is characterized by high inventory levels and weak consumer sentiment, suggesting that price stabilization in major cities may not occur until the second half of 2027 [7][8] - Developers, particularly state-owned enterprises, are expected to face continued pressure on profit margins, despite some recovery in liquidity within the industry [8][9] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies that can effectively manage their commercial properties and those that are consolidating in the residential market, such as Huaren Zhidi and Jianfa International [10][11] Industry: Transportation Core Insights and Arguments - The transportation sector is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with December 2025 showing a further decline in industry growth rates to around 1% to 2% [15][16] - Zhongtong has been gaining market share, with a growth rate exceeding the industry average by approximately 5% in December, indicating a positive trend in market share acquisition [16][17] - The company’s ability to maintain or improve its market share is viewed as more critical than short-term profit fluctuations, as historical data suggests that sacrificing market share for profit can lead to long-term valuation declines [17][18] - The overall outlook for the transportation sector remains positive, with expectations of continued demand growth supported by geopolitical factors and a shift from unregulated to regulated markets [19][20] - The airline industry is expected to see strong demand growth, with a projected increase in passenger numbers by around 10% and ticket prices expected to rise by low double digits [20][21] - Supply constraints in the airline industry are anticipated to persist, with limited capacity growth expected to keep demand pressures high [22][23] - Upcoming catalysts for the airline sector include performance forecasts from major airlines and potential positive impacts from the Spring Festival travel season [25][26] Industry: Automotive Core Insights and Arguments - SAIC Motor Corporation is undergoing significant adjustments and improvements across its various business lines, with a focus on increasing market share in the domestic market [35][36] - The company’s self-owned brands are gradually gaining traction, with expectations of maintaining growth momentum in 2026 [36][37] - Despite challenges in the joint venture segment, particularly with SAIC Volkswagen, there is potential for surprises due to new product launches in the electric vehicle segment [38][39] - The company’s financial services and parts supply businesses are expected to benefit from recovering sales volumes, providing additional profit stability [40][41] - Overall, SAIC is positioned to capture more value as its sales recover, with a current valuation of approximately 10 times its 2026 earnings forecast, indicating potential for valuation recovery [44][45] Other Important Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of monitoring market dynamics and potential catalysts across various sectors, including real estate, transportation, and automotive, as they navigate through 2026 [46][47]

大摩闭门会：房地产、交运、汽车行业更新 260107 摘要 房地产市场：预计 2026 年一、二手房销售量将继续以中单位数下降， 与 2025 年跌幅相当。二手房价预计继续以高单位数下跌，跌幅或略有 放缓，但挂牌量高企是主要制约因素。 房地产开发投资：受土地销售疲软影响，2026 年新开工项目预计维持 中等程度下降，开发投资同比降幅预计与 2025 年持平，维持在 15%- 16%左右。 房地产股票投资策略：建议关注能够分拆商业物业并受益于内需刺激的 商业运营商（如华润置地、新城控股），以及通过优化业务实现盈利增 长的住宅市场整合者（如建发国际、中海地产）。 中通快递：预计明年盈利增长 10%左右，包括 10%的量增长及单位利 润持平。连续三个月增速超过行业平均水平，市场份额扩张对估值有支 撑作用，盈利增长或超预期。 航运行业：地缘政治因素导致不合规运力退出，增加合规运力需求。委 内瑞拉局势变化支持这一需求，目前位置仍具备绝对收益空间。关注春 节期间运价下调风险。 航空业：需求强劲，客流量增长 10%，票价高单位数到低双位数增长。 运力投放仅增长 2%，客座率明显上升，表明行业供给侧存在局限性， 增强了对供给 ...

Summary of Key Points Group 1: 52-Week Highs - A total of 134 stocks reached their 52-week highs as of January 6, with the highest increase recorded by Macau Legend Development (02962) at 96.00% [1] - Other notable stocks include Auda Holding (09929) with a high rate of 38.57% and China National Pharmaceutical Group (08247) at 24.80% [1] - The closing prices and peak prices for these stocks were as follows: Macau Legend Development at 0.066 and 0.098, Auda Holding at 0.920 and 0.970, and China National Pharmaceutical Group at 3.170 [1] Group 2: 52-Week Lows - The report also highlighted stocks that reached their 52-week lows, with the largest decline seen in Xie Tong Communication (02996) at -29.41% [4] - Other significant declines included Starry Sky Chinese Culture (06698) at -14.14% and Huazhong Biotech - B (02396) at -12.63% [4] - The closing and lowest prices for these stocks were: Xie Tong Communication at 0.016 and 0.012, Starry Sky Chinese Culture at 0.940 and 0.850, and Huazhong Biotech - B at 12.000 and 11.900 [4]

Summary of ZTO Express 4Q25 Preview Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: ZTO Express (ZTO.N) - **Industry**: Transportation & Infrastructure - **Market**: Hong Kong/China Key Points Earnings Outlook - The earnings outlook for 4Q25 remains largely unchanged compared to the management discussion post-3Q25 [1] - ZTO is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately Rmb2.7 billion, which is flat year-over-year [3] Market Share Dynamics - ZTO is projected to gain 1 percentage point in market share in 4Q25, recovering from a loss of 0.6 percentage points in 3Q25 and 0.3 percentage points in 1H25 [2] - Industry volume growth is anticipated to slow from 13% in 3Q25 to 5% year-over-year in 4Q25, attributed to decreased low-value parcels and a high base from the previous year [2] - ZTO's market share gains resumed in October 2025, leading to a 1 percentage point year-over-year gain in 4Q25 [2] Profitability Metrics - Unit operating profit is expected to improve by Rmb0.05 quarter-over-quarter to Rmb0.30 in 4Q25, despite a slight increase in unit costs during the peak season [3] - The unit profit is projected to remain stable at Rmb0.26, with higher operating profit offset by lower tax credits [3] 2026 Outlook - The outlook for 2026 indicates continued market share gains for ZTO, with manageable downside risks to unit profit [4] Investment Recommendation - The recommendation for ZTO remains "Overweight" (OW), with sustained market share gains being a key focus for investors [5] - The stock is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12x for 2026 estimates, with a forward free cash flow yield of 6-8%, which is attractive compared to the peer average of 1% [5] - A reduction in capital expenditures is expected to enhance shareholder returns [5] Valuation and Risks - The valuation methodology includes a discounted cash flow approach with a probability-weighted scenario analysis: 15% bull case, 75% base case, and 10% bear case [12] - Key assumptions include a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 13.2% and a terminal growth rate of 3% [13] - Upside risks include faster-than-expected market share gains and better cost control, while downside risks involve intensified competition and potential market share losses [15] Financial Metrics - Current market capitalization is Rmb119.7 billion, with an enterprise value of Rmb108.1 billion [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the next fiscal years are Rmb11.76 for 2025 and Rmb12.93 for 2026 [7] Additional Insights - The company is positioned to achieve approximately 10% year-over-year profit growth in 2026 under the base case scenario [10] - The bear case scenario suggests potential challenges in achieving both earnings growth and market share gains [10] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the ZTO Express conference call, highlighting the company's performance, market dynamics, and investment outlook.

| 3. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | 其他類別 (請註明) | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 否 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | N/A | 說明 | 未指定 | | | | 2. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | B | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | N/A | 說明 | B類普通股 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 1,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.0001 | USD | | 100,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | USD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 1,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.0001 | USD ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for ZTO Express, J&T Global Express Limited, and S.F. Holding, indicating a positive outlook for the express delivery sector [7][63]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector is experiencing a recovery in profitability driven by anti-involution measures, with a recommendation to focus on leading companies such as ZTO Express and J&T Global Express Limited, which are showing high overseas growth [7][63]. - The report highlights that the volume growth of express deliveries has slowed to single digits in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 5% in November 2025, reflecting a trend of maintaining single-digit growth [9][63]. - The anti-involution measures have effectively improved average selling prices (ASP) and profitability across the industry, with notable increases in single ticket revenue for major companies [9][63]. Summary by Sections Investment Advice - The report continues to be optimistic about the express delivery sector, recommending ZTO Express, J&T Global Express Limited, and S.F. Holding as key players to watch [7][63]. Industry Volume and Pricing - Q4 2025 saw express delivery volume growth drop to single digits, with the industry achieving a total of 180.6 billion parcels in November, marking a 5% year-on-year increase [9][63]. - The average single ticket revenue for the express delivery industry was 7.62 RMB in November 2025, reflecting an 8.3% decline year-on-year but a 1.9% increase month-on-month [19][63]. - The report notes that the share of intercity express delivery continues to rise, while the share of same-city delivery has decreased slightly [23][24]. Company Performance - S.F. Holding's volume growth outpaced its peers, with a year-on-year increase of 20.13% in November 2025, while other major companies like YTO and Yunda also showed positive growth [35][36]. - The report indicates that profitability is recovering across major companies, with net profit margins for ZTO, YTO, Yunda, and Shentong showing improvements in Q3 2025 [46][63]. Long-term Outlook - The report suggests that the express delivery industry is moving towards healthy competition, with leading companies expected to continue to rise in prominence due to their pricing power and market leadership [50][57].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report maintains a "recommended" investment rating for the express logistics industry, highlighting the expected orderly competition and gradual optimization of the competitive landscape [1] - The express logistics sector is projected to benefit from the growth of e-commerce and reverse logistics, with a significant increase in business volume and revenue in 2025 [7][12] - The average price in the express industry has shown signs of recovery due to anti-involution policies, with a narrowing year-on-year decline in prices [18][24] Group 2: Industry Overview - In 2025, the total express business volume reached 180.74 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, while total revenue was 1,355.06 billion yuan, up 7.1% [7][12] - The growth in express logistics is attributed to the expansion of e-commerce into lower-tier markets and the increasing demand for reverse logistics [12][14] - The average price per package has decreased by 12.5% year-on-year, reflecting the impact of low-cost e-commerce and live-streaming sales [12][14] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Major companies like SF Express and YTO Express have seen an increase in market share, with SF Express's market share rising by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [24][31] - The competitive dynamics have shifted, with leading companies maintaining growth while smaller firms face pressure to adapt to pricing strategies [24][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of head companies having stable cash flows and low debt levels, positioning them as quasi-dividend stocks [8][12] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the express logistics industry is currently undervalued, with expectations for improved profitability as competition stabilizes and pricing levels stabilize [7][12] - Key investment targets include Zhongtong Express, YTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Express, which are expected to benefit from the evolving market dynamics [7][12] - The cross-border logistics segment is also highlighted for its growth potential, particularly in Southeast Asia and emerging markets, driven by the expansion of e-commerce [7][12]