大摩闭门会：房地产、交运、汽车行业更新 260107 摘要 房地产市场：预计 2026 年一、二手房销售量将继续以中单位数下降， 与 2025 年跌幅相当。二手房价预计继续以高单位数下跌，跌幅或略有 放缓，但挂牌量高企是主要制约因素。 房地产开发投资：受土地销售疲软影响，2026 年新开工项目预计维持 中等程度下降，开发投资同比降幅预计与 2025 年持平，维持在 15%- 16%左右。 房地产股票投资策略：建议关注能够分拆商业物业并受益于内需刺激的 商业运营商（如华润置地、新城控股），以及通过优化业务实现盈利增 长的住宅市场整合者（如建发国际、中海地产）。 中通快递：预计明年盈利增长 10%左右，包括 10%的量增长及单位利 润持平。连续三个月增速超过行业平均水平，市场份额扩张对估值有支 撑作用，盈利增长或超预期。 航运行业：地缘政治因素导致不合规运力退出，增加合规运力需求。委 内瑞拉局势变化支持这一需求，目前位置仍具备绝对收益空间。关注春 节期间运价下调风险。 航空业：需求强劲，客流量增长 10%，票价高单位数到低双位数增长。 运力投放仅增长 2%，客座率明显上升，表明行业供给侧存在局限性， 增强了对供给 ...

最近，国际市场上关于人民币升值的讨论越来越热烈。 高盛在12月9日的报告中指出人民币被低估约25%，IMF也建议中国让货币升值以刺激内需。 国内甚 至出现了"1美元兑4元人民币"的激进观点。 但这场看似宏大的经济议题，背后却关乎普通人的饭碗——人民币若快速升值，出口企业的薄利可能被击穿，而你的工资、加班费甚至工作岗位，或许会成 为代价。 人民币升值最直接的影响是进口商品更便宜。 例如，中国石化曾测算，若人民币升值5%，其进口石油成本可减少逾1亿美元。 留学生家庭换10万美元能省 下数万元，海淘族也能用更少的钱买到海外商品。 2025年12月，人民币对美元汇率徘徊在7.04附近，若升至6.8，进口高端设备、原材料的企业将直接受 益。 但硬币的另一面是出口企业的困境。 中国制造业平均净利润仅3?%，如创维集团曾公开表示，人民币升值10%会导致出口订单流失，因为提价1美元都可能 失去国际市场竞争力。 2025年前11个月，中国贸易顺差超1万亿美元，但背后是"以价换量"的竞争模式。 若汇率短期内升至6.5，许多劳动密集型企业将面临亏损。 人民币升值对就业的影响并非均匀分布。 根据CGE模型模拟，人民币升值幅度与就业总 ...

Market Overview - A-shares demonstrate strong resilience amid external negative impacts, with significant sector rotation observed, particularly in consumption, cyclical, and some traditional industries, countering the pressure from the technology sector's adjustment [1][20] - As of Wednesday's close, the Shanghai Composite Index reported 3969.25 points, up 0.23%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.37% and 1.03%, respectively, indicating a rebound despite external market pressures [2] Sector Performance - The consumption and cyclical sectors are recovering, with active performances noted in local Hainan stocks, food and beverage, tourism, chemicals, and steel [3] - The power equipment and energy storage sectors have surged, with numerous stocks hitting their upper limits [3] - The technology sector, including CPO, quantum technology, and AI applications, is experiencing a collective pullback, indicating a release of risks as chips concentrate at high levels [3][10] Sector Rotation Logic - The technology sector's high-level fluctuations are seen as inevitable due to previous significant gains driven by CPO and AI, leading to a lack of new incremental funds and resulting in a necessary period of consolidation or adjustment [5] - The rise of the consumption sector is attributed to the traditional peak season in Q4, with increased seasonal demand for liquor, food, and tourism [6] - Policy measures are expected to further stimulate domestic demand, with consumer confidence gradually recovering [7] - The cyclical sector is active due to stabilizing raw material prices, with chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and steel entering a replenishment cycle [8] - Improvement in overseas economic data is enhancing export expectations [9] - Accelerated domestic infrastructure investment is boosting upstream demand, leading to a shift in funds towards lower-priced sectors and industries with improving conditions [10] Structural Opportunities - Investment focus areas include: - Consumption (liquor, tourism, retail): driven by seasonal effects and policy support, focusing on leading companies and those benefiting from regional consumption policies [13] - Cyclical (chemicals, non-ferrous metals, steel): driven by replenishment and stabilizing raw materials, focusing on leading enterprises or undervalued stocks [13] - Power equipment and energy storage: supported by new energy expansion and policy backing, focusing on storage components and leading grid equipment [13] - Small-cap growth stocks (CSI 2000): indicating a style shift, with attention on newly listed stocks with good performance expectations [13] Investment Recommendations - For the technology sector, it is advised to refrain from chasing high prices and to wait for consolidation or rapid adjustments to complete trend repairs [14] - The consumption and cyclical sectors are recommended for short to medium-term allocations to capture continuous opportunities arising from improving conditions [14] - Small-cap stocks should be closely monitored for fund inflows, with low-priced quality growth stocks being worthy of attention [15]

Core Insights - The 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday saw record high travel numbers, with emerging consumption growth in new first-tier cities and county tourism, indicating a shift from traditional first-tier cities [1] - Domestic consumption is showing a "multi-polar" trend, with significant growth in county markets, which outpaced national averages, highlighting the economic potential outside major cities [1] - The travel structure is evolving, with self-driving and long-distance travel gaining popularity, reflecting consumer preferences for efficiency and cost balance [2] Group 1: Travel and Tourism Trends - Self-driving and inter-provincial travel are experiencing rapid growth, with a total of 2.432 billion people expected to travel during the holiday, marking a historical high [2] - The proportion of self-driving trips reached 80%, with significant increases in inter-city ride-hailing orders and cross-province travel bookings [2] - Cross-border tourism is witnessing a comprehensive recovery, with a 24% increase in entry and exit numbers at Pudong International Airport compared to the previous year [3] Group 2: Consumer Spending and Market Dynamics - The holiday period is a critical time for consumer spending, with retail and dining sales increasing by 2.7% year-on-year, and foot traffic in monitored shopping districts rising by 8.8% [4] - Experience-based consumption is becoming mainstream, with significant growth in orders for cultural and heritage experiences, as well as museum visits [4] - The domestic hotel market showed a 65% increase in booking heat, with a notable rise in multi-city bookings and high-quality accommodations outside first-tier cities [4] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Challenges - The film market is underperforming due to competition from short videos and a lack of diverse film offerings, while real estate sales show a clear divide between first and second-tier cities [5] - Despite strong export data and port activity, the global economic environment is facing challenges, with a slowdown in growth observed in the Eurozone [5] - There is a need for fiscal and monetary support to stimulate domestic demand, as the holiday consumption data shows significant disparities across sectors [6]

Group 1: Domestic Travel Trends - The 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday saw record high travel numbers, with emerging consumption growth in new first-tier cities and county-level tourism [1] - WeChat Pay data indicates that the county market led national growth, with a 10% increase in total consumption compared to the May Day holiday [1] - Chongqing topped the list in WeChat Pay consumption, surpassing major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [1] Group 2: Travel Patterns and Preferences - From October 1 to 8, the total inter-regional population flow reached 2.432 billion, a historical high, with a daily average of 304 million, up 6.2% year-on-year [2] - Road travel remains dominant, with a 6.5% year-on-year increase, and self-driving trips accounting for 80% of travel choices [2] - Didi reported a 51% increase in intercity ride-hailing orders during the holiday [2] Group 3: Cross-Border Travel Recovery - Cross-border tourism is experiencing a comprehensive recovery, with a 24% year-on-year increase in entry and exit passenger numbers at Pudong International Airport [3] - Daily entry and exit figures averaged 2.043 million during the holiday, up 11.5% from the previous year [3] - Popular destinations for outbound travel include Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia [3] Group 4: Consumer Spending and Market Dynamics - Retail and catering sales during the holiday increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with foot traffic and sales in monitored business districts rising by 8.8% and 6.0%, respectively [4] - Experience-based consumption is becoming mainstream, with significant growth in orders for cultural and heritage experiences [4] - Domestic hotel bookings surged over 65% year-on-year, with a notable increase in multi-city reservations [4] Group 5: Economic Indicators and Market Performance - The film market showed a subdued response due to competition from short videos and homogenized film offerings [5] - Domestic port throughput during the holiday increased by 4.69%, indicating strong export activity despite a complex global economic environment [5] - The need for fiscal and monetary stimulus to support domestic demand recovery remains high, with structural adjustments necessary for sustained growth [6]

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market rose, with the ChiNext index increasing by nearly 2.4% and total trading volume reaching 1.47 trillion yuan, indicating a gradual increase in risk appetite and liquidity in the domestic market [1] - The market is expected to experience a structural trend, with indices fluctuating while the central tendency moves upward, as corporate earnings still face pressure despite signs of economic recovery [1] Economic Indicators - As of the end of June, China's gold reserves reached 73.9 million ounces, an increase of 70,000 ounces from the end of May, marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [2] - China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $33,174 billion, up by $32.2 billion from the end of May, remaining stable above $3.2 trillion for 19 consecutive months [2] Policy Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued a notice to promote the scientific planning and construction of high-power charging facilities, aiming for over 100,000 such facilities nationwide by the end of 2027 [2][3] - The policy aims to address the challenges in charging infrastructure for new energy vehicles, with expectations for accelerated construction from 2025 to 2027, benefiting the upstream and downstream of the industry chain [3] Trade Relations - The U.S. government announced a delay in tariff negotiations, with President Trump set to sign an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on all products imported from Japan and South Korea starting August 1, 2025 [3] - This trade policy reflects the Trump administration's strategy of using pressure to facilitate negotiations, which may increase global market volatility in the short term [3] Market Performance - On July 8, the A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index close at 3,497.48 points, up 0.70%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.47% to 10,588.39 points [4] - Among the sectors, utilities and banking experienced declines, while telecommunications, power equipment, and electronics led the gains [4] Capital Flow - The market's trading volume was 1,474.798 billion yuan, showing an increase from the previous trading day, with the margin financing balance also rising to 1,859.38 billion yuan [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market has entered a new adjustment phase since June 13, with the banking sector showing resilience while new consumption stocks face significant declines [1][2]. Market Performance - The A-share banking sector has risen nearly 4% over six days, ranking first among all industries, and has been on an upward trend for two and a half years, nearing the peak of the 2007 bull market [1]. - The overall market turnover has decreased significantly, with recent trading days seeing around 1.1 trillion yuan, down from 1.5 trillion yuan [1]. New Consumption Sector - The new consumption sector has experienced a sharp decline since June 5, with leading companies like Zhongchong Co. and Chaohongji seeing drops exceeding 20% [2]. - The market's previous optimism around new consumption stocks has been undermined by a lack of fundamental support and high valuations, leading to a prolonged adjustment phase [6]. Economic Indicators - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that retail sales in May grew by 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations, with the "trade-in" category growing by 34% [3]. - The strong retail sales data suggests that the need for stimulus measures may diminish, impacting the outlook for new consumption stocks [3]. Liquidity Conditions - There are signs of tightening liquidity in Hong Kong, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervening to manage currency fluctuations, which could affect the performance of Hong Kong stocks [5]. - The previous liquidity support that fueled the rise of new consumption stocks is reversing, contributing to the sector's decline [5]. Investment Shifts - Investors initially expected to shift from new consumption stocks to technology stocks, but this has not materialized due to overall market conditions and low trading volumes [7]. - The banking sector is expected to remain a safe haven for investors, with significant interest from institutional players [16]. Sector Analysis - The A-share market's dividend sectors are categorized into four main areas: resource, financial, natural monopoly, and broad consumption [8]. - The oil sector has seen a recent surge, with Brent crude oil prices rising nearly 20% since June 11, but concerns about geopolitical tensions may lead to volatility [9][10]. - The coal sector has underperformed, with a 12% decline this year due to falling prices and weak demand from the real estate sector [14]. Strategic Outlook - Given the current market conditions, a conservative approach is recommended, with a focus on reducing positions and waiting for better opportunities [19]. - The banking sector is highlighted as a potential area for investment, despite its declining fundamentals, due to the support from state-owned entities [16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for fiscal policy to stimulate domestic demand in the face of economic uncertainties and insufficient internal demand, with a target growth rate of 5% facing challenges [1][5][7] - The article discusses the effectiveness of fiscal policy over monetary policy in addressing demand shortages, particularly in the current economic context where low inflation and high real interest rates prevail [3][4][6] - It highlights the importance of balancing fiscal spending between investment and consumption, suggesting that while investment is crucial, immediate measures should also focus on stimulating consumption to drive economic growth [6][7] Group 2 - Fiscal measures can be categorized into income policies and expenditure policies, with expenditure policies having a broader operational space to stimulate investment and consumption [4][5] - The article suggests that expanding fiscal deficits to increase spending can send a clear signal to the market, but cautions against excessive deficits that could have negative economic impacts [5][6] - It proposes that short-term fiscal spending should prioritize consumption, utilizing methods such as consumption vouchers and increased social security funding to quickly boost consumer confidence [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is experiencing a low level of prosperity, with expectations for a cyclical recovery in the future. The performance of the petrochemical and basic chemical sectors has shown significant divergence, influenced by factors such as oil price fluctuations and market demand [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In Q1 2025, the petrochemical sector achieved revenue of 1,015.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%, while the basic chemical sector reported revenue of 607.0 billion yuan, an increase of 6.4% [1][2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the petrochemical sector was 17.0 billion yuan, down 23.5% year-on-year, whereas the basic chemical sector saw a net profit of 37.1 billion yuan, up 4.7% year-on-year [1][2]. - For the full year of 2024, the petrochemical sector is projected to generate revenue of 43,056 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.2%, while the basic chemical sector is expected to reach 24,970 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.3% [2]. Group 2: Cost and Demand Dynamics - The average Brent crude oil price in Q2 2025 is projected to be 65.3 USD/barrel, reflecting a decline of 12.9% from Q1 2025 and 23.2% from Q2 2024 [3]. - The petrochemical and basic chemical sectors experienced year-on-year capital expenditure growth rates of -24.5% and -5.3%, respectively, indicating a slowdown in investment [3]. - Despite challenges in international trade, the resilience of China's chemical exports is anticipated, particularly with the potential release of domestic demand driven by ongoing policy support [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the petrochemical and basic chemical sectors are 18.2x and 23.7x, respectively, indicating a premium compared to historical averages [4]. - The basic chemical sector is viewed as undervalued, presenting medium to long-term investment opportunities [4]. - Key investment themes include expanding domestic demand, fostering new production capabilities, and capitalizing on high-performing resource sectors [5].

Group 1 - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for the Hong Kong stock market in the short to medium term, despite short-term concerns regarding fundamentals and liquidity [3][6] - The report highlights a preference for sectors that are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support, including automotive, consumer, electronics, and technology [3][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of avoiding sectors and companies with significant exposure to the U.S. due to potential impacts from U.S.-China trade disputes [3][6] Group 2 - In April, the Hong Kong stock market experienced significant volatility, with the Hang Seng Index dropping over 13% on April 7, marking the largest single-day decline since the 1997 Asian financial crisis [4][12] - The Hang Seng Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Technology Index recorded monthly declines of -3.70%, -4.33%, and -5.70% respectively by the end of April [4][12] - The report notes that the market's performance was weaker than expected, influenced by the escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions [12][13] Group 3 - The report indicates that the macroeconomic environment for the Hong Kong market is under pressure, with domestic economic data showing improvement but external demand being significantly impacted by trade tensions [5][41] - The report highlights that the domestic economy's performance is closely tied to mainland China's economic conditions, with over 80% of profits in the Hong Kong market coming from Chinese companies [41][42] - The report discusses the need for policy measures to boost domestic demand as external pressures increase, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing the economy [78][80] Group 4 - The report identifies that sectors such as utilities and consumer staples performed relatively well in April, while sectors with high exposure to U.S. exports, such as textiles and machinery, faced significant declines [13][12] - The report notes that the valuation levels of the Hang Seng Index are currently below the five-year average, with a PE ratio of 10.5 as of the end of April [21][22] - The report highlights a significant inflow of southbound funds into the Hong Kong market, with Alibaba and Tencent being major beneficiaries of this trend [21][29]