Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International indicates a downward revision of Budweiser APAC's (01876) EBITDA and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 by 5-7% and 5-9% respectively, reflecting recent weak performance. The target price is adjusted to HKD 9.50 while maintaining a buy rating [1] Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - The company is expected to face short-term pressure on its Q3 performance, with a projected revenue decline of 6.4% year-on-year. Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to decrease by 14.4%, and adjusted net profit is expected to be USD 190 million, down 14.6% year-on-year [2] - The core pressure is attributed to weak performance in the ready-to-drink channel in mainland China, partially offset by strong growth in the Indian market, price increases in the Korean market, and cost improvements. The current stock price reflects short-term sales pressure, and a dividend yield exceeding 5% is expected to support the stock price [2] Group 2: Regional Performance Insights - In the Asia Pacific West region, the ready-to-drink channel in mainland China is under pressure due to factors such as alcohol bans and price wars on delivery platforms. The company is expected to see a high single-digit year-on-year revenue decline in this region, with significant declines in both volume and average price. Despite a trend towards premiumization in non-ready-to-drink channels, adverse changes in channel mix and promotional activities are expected to negatively impact average prices [3] - The company has proactively adjusted inventory to alleviate pressure on distributors, and inventory management is reported to be good, providing support for future recovery. A marginal recovery is anticipated in Q4, while the Indian market is expected to continue its growth momentum from the first half of the year, contributing to improved EBITDA margins [3] - In the Asia Pacific East region, performance is expected to be relatively stable, with slight revenue declines influenced by exchange rates. Volume is projected to decrease in low single digits, while average prices are expected to grow in mid-single digits, leading to a slight increase in adjusted EBITDA. Brand and channel optimization, along with recent price increases, are expected to support average price performance [4]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,140, down 0.54% from the previous trading day, with a year-to-date increase of 35.30% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.90% to 6,622, with a year-to-date increase of 48.22% [1] - The CSI 300 Index rose by 0.45% to 4,640, with a year-to-date increase of 17.94% [1] - The Dow Jones Index increased by 0.51% to 46,758, marking a year-to-date increase of 9.91% [1] Currency and Commodity Overview - The Renminbi Index stands at 96.970, with a 1-month increase of 0.41% but a 6-month decrease of 1.83% [2] - Brent crude oil is priced at $64.99 per barrel, down 3.20% over the past month and 3.46% over the past six months [2] - Gold is priced at $3,861.04 per ounce, with a 1-month increase of 8.45% and a 6-month increase of 23.91% [2] Key News - High-profile political changes in Japan with the election of the first female president of the Liberal Democratic Party, likely to become the first female Prime Minister [4][11] - The unemployment rate in the Eurozone rose to 6.3%, slightly above expectations, with an estimated 10.84 million unemployed [4][12] - OPEC+ is nearing an agreement to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November [4][13] Market Review - Hong Kong stocks experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index fluctuating around the 27,000 mark, closing down 0.54% [5] - The A-share market was closed due to the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [6] - U.S. markets showed mixed results, with the Dow and S&P 500 reaching new highs while the Nasdaq retreated after hitting a peak [6] Sector Performance - The technology sector saw mixed results, with notable declines in major tech stocks like Intel and Amazon, while semiconductor stocks showed resilience [6][7] - European markets generally trended upwards, with the UK FTSE 100 reaching new highs [7] IPO Information - Recent IPOs have shown strong performance, with companies like Zijin Mining International and Xipuni achieving significant first-day gains [28] - Upcoming IPOs include Changfeng Pharmaceutical and Zhida Technology, with expected pricing and entry fees detailed [28] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic indicators to be released include the Eurozone retail sales and U.S. trade balance for August, as well as China's foreign exchange reserves [30]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876) with a target price adjusted to HKD 9.50, indicating that the current stock price reflects short-term sales pressures, with potential marginal improvement in Q4 and a supporting dividend yield exceeding 5% [1] Financial Performance - The company is expected to announce its Q3 2025 results on October 30, with projected group revenue declining by 6.4% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to decrease by 14.4% year-on-year, while adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at USD 190 million, representing a 14.6% decline year-on-year [1] Market Dynamics - Core pressures are identified in the mainland China market, where the ready-to-drink channel remains weak, although this is partially offset by strong growth in the Indian market, price increases in the Korean market, and cost improvements [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (01876) with a target price adjusted to HKD 9.50, citing that the current stock price reflects short-term sales pressure, with potential marginal improvement in Q4 and a supporting dividend yield exceeding 5% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - The company is expected to report a 6.4% year-on-year decline in group revenue for Q3 2025, indicating a slow overall recovery; adjusted EBITDA is projected to decrease by 14.4%, and adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders is anticipated to be USD 190 million, down 14.6% year-on-year [1] - The core pressure on performance is attributed to a weak on-premise channel in mainland China, partially offset by strong growth in the Indian market, price increases in the Korean market, and cost improvements [1][2] Group 2: Regional Market Analysis - In the Asia Pacific West region, the on-premise channel in mainland China is under pressure due to factors such as alcohol bans and price wars on delivery platforms, leading to a soft recovery in the restaurant channel; inventory reduction efforts negatively impacted sales [2] - The Asia Pacific East region, particularly South Korea, is expected to perform relatively well with slight revenue declines; unit sales are projected to decrease in low single digits, while average prices are expected to grow in mid-single digits, with adjusted EBITDA likely to see slight growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (01876) but lowers the target price to HKD 9.50, citing that the current stock price reflects short-term sales pressure, with potential marginal improvement in Q4 and a supporting dividend yield exceeding 5% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - The company is expected to report a 6.4% year-on-year decline in group revenue for Q3 2025, with adjusted EBITDA anticipated to decrease by 14.4% and adjusted net profit projected at USD 190 million, down 14.6% year-on-year [1] - The core pressure on performance is attributed to the soft on-premise channel in mainland China, partially offset by strong growth in the Indian market, price increases in the Korean market, and cost improvements [1] Group 2: Regional Performance Insights - In the Asia-Pacific West region, particularly mainland China, the on-premise channel is under pressure due to factors such as alcohol bans and price wars on delivery platforms, leading to a high single-digit year-on-year revenue decline and a deeper sequential decline in Q3 [1] - The company has actively adjusted inventory to alleviate pressure on distributors, maintaining good inventory management to support future recovery, with expectations of marginal recovery in Q4 [1] - In the Asia-Pacific East region, the performance is expected to be relatively stable, with slight revenue decline impacted by exchange rates, low single-digit volume decline, and mid-single-digit average price growth, alongside a slight increase in adjusted EBITDA [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the consumer staples sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [1]. Core Insights - The wholesale prices of Baijiu have mostly declined, with notable decreases in prices for Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, while prices for most consumer goods remain stable [4][10]. - The report highlights a significant drop in the discount rates for liquid milk products, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [6][18]. - Overall, the report suggests that the impact of funds is greater, advising attention to low-position stocks and heavyweight stocks in the consumer staples sector [8]. Summary by Sections Baijiu Pricing - Guizhou Moutai's wholesale prices for Feitian (case and single bottle) are 1790 and 1770 yuan, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 55 and 70 yuan from the previous month [4][37]. - Wuliangye's eighth-generation price is 895 yuan, down 25 yuan from last month [4][37]. - Luzhou Laojiao's Guojiao 1573 price increased by 10 yuan to 850 yuan [4][37]. Consumer Goods Pricing - The average discount rate for liquid milk products decreased from 74.8% to 69.4% since the end of August [6][21]. - Discount rates for soft drinks, condiments, instant foods, and beer remained stable, with slight variations in average and median values [19][35]. - The report notes that the discount rate for infant formula products also showed a minor decrease from 89.5% to 88.7% [21][35]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring low-position stocks and heavyweight stocks due to the greater impact of funds on the market [8].

Investment Rating - The report provides various investment ratings for companies in the consumer staples sector, with "Outperform" ratings for several companies including China Feihe, Haidilao, and China Resources Beer, while Budweiser APAC is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The overall cost indices for six categories of consumer goods showed mixed trends, indicating stability in the market. Spot cost indices for soft drinks, beer, instant noodles, dairy products, frozen foods, and seasonings changed by +0.97%, +0.51%, +0.26%, -0.13%, -0.44%, and -0.57% respectively, while futures cost indices changed by -1.08%, +1.06%, -1.06%, -1.67%, -0.78%, and -0.06% respectively [31][32][33][34][35][36][37]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index for beer increased by 0.51% month-on-month, while the futures index rose by 1.06%. Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have decreased by 3.71% and 4.95% respectively [12][32]. Seasonings - The spot cost index for seasonings decreased by 0.57% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 0.06%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -2.41% and -6.71% respectively [15][33]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index for dairy products decreased by 0.13% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 1.67%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -3.36% and -3.93% respectively [18][34]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index for instant noodles increased by 0.26% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 1.06%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -3.23% and -6.06% respectively [22][35]. Frozen Foods - The spot cost index for frozen foods decreased by 0.44% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 0.78%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -2.3% and -3.37% respectively [25][36]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index for soft drinks rose by 0.97% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 1.08%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -4.19% and -10.86% respectively [28][37].

Core Viewpoint - DBS maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (01876) due to low valuation and attractive dividend yield, while lowering the target price from HKD 9.6 to HKD 9.4 [1] Financial Forecasts - DBS has reduced Budweiser APAC's earnings forecast for FY2025 by 11% due to weak performance in the Chinese market [1] - Earnings forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 have been lowered by 5% each [1] Market Performance - The company is expected to face pressure on sales volume and average selling price in the Chinese market for Q3 this year [1] - Streamlined channel inventory is anticipated to pave the way for potential sales rebound in Q4 [1] - Budweiser APAC's performance in South Korea has been strong, supported by favorable brand and channel mix as well as price increase measures, leading to a significant rise in average selling price [1]

Core Viewpoint - DBS maintains a "Buy" rating on Budweiser APAC (01876) due to low valuation and attractive dividend yield, adjusting the target price from HKD 9.6 to HKD 9.4 [1] Financial Forecasts - The earnings forecast for Budweiser APAC for FY2025 has been reduced by 11% due to weak performance in the Chinese market [1] - Earnings forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 have each been lowered by 5% [1] Market Performance - Despite anticipated pressure on sales and average selling prices in the Chinese market for Q3, streamlined channel inventory is expected to pave the way for potential sales rebound in Q4 [1] - Budweiser APAC's performance in South Korea has been strong, supported by favorable brand and channel mix as well as price increase measures, leading to a significant rise in average selling prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite anticipated sales and average price pressures in the Chinese market for Budweiser APAC in Q3, streamlined channel inventory may pave the way for potential sales rebound in Q4 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Budweiser APAC's performance in South Korea is strong, driven by favorable brand and channel mix along with price increase measures, significantly supporting average price uplift [1] Group 2: Financial Forecasts - DBS has lowered its earnings forecast for Budweiser APAC by 11% for FY2025, and by 5% for FY2026 and FY2027 [1] Group 3: Investment Rating - Despite the lowered earnings forecasts, the company maintains a "Buy" rating due to low valuation and attractive dividend yield, with the target price adjusted from HKD 9.6 to HKD 9.4 [1]