会议主持人: 好的，各位投资者新年好。 甚至是食品饮料，也都出现了这个明显的这个机会所以我觉得就是在今天大家都要看到在 中国市场，它的市场结构变得更加广泛，更加具有梯度。科技和非科技都在出现这个投资 机会。同时，权重和小市值也在出现投资机会。所以我觉得市场结构本身的变化也非常值 得大家去重新的审视今年中国市场的一个。这个眼镜，那说到我们的看法，大家也其实大 家也比较熟悉了。在 1 月中旬以来，国泰海通应该是唯一一个在市场当中讲，要开始重视 内需，要开始重视这个传统行业的这样的一个，这个证券公司和研究团队。 李鹏飞 国泰海通金属分析师: 现在就是我们联合还是策略跟十大周期行业的首席，给大家开年梳理一下这个周期整个板 块，这个投资逻辑，还有这个机会。那首先，我们还是有请策略首席方毅老师发言。 方奕 国泰海通策略首席: 好的，谢谢。各位朋友，大家晚上好，我是方毅。大家新年快乐，这是开年以来，这个第 一天，也是第一次和大家沟通我们对中国市场的看法。那应该来说，2026 年以来，实际 上大家可以看到今年所上涨的这个板块，其实和去年是有比较大的这个差异的。比如说去 年比较强劲的这个算力，今年普遍的表现是这个比较差的。那当 ...

25 February 2026 | 7:02AM CST Equity Research CHINA PROPERTY WEEKLY WRAP Week 7 & 8 Wrap - Positive CNY sales performance against undemanding 2025 base Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other ...

2月25日，万科A盘中上涨2.03%，截至09:47，报5.02元/股，成交3.50亿元，换手率0.72%，总市值 598.92亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入2764.08万元，特大单买入9479.96万元，占比27.12%，卖出5684.46万 元，占比16.26%；大单买入9025.07万元，占比25.81%，卖出1.01亿元，占比28.77%。 万科A今年以来股价涨7.96%，近5个交易日涨2.87%，近20日涨4.80%，近60日跌17.16%。 资料显示，万科企业股份有限公司位于广东省深圳市盐田区大梅沙环梅路33号万科中心,香港中环花园 道1号中银大厦43楼A室，成立日期1984年5月30日，上市日期1991年1月29日，公司主营业务涉及房地 产开发和物业服务。主营业务收入构成为：房地产开发及相关资产经营业务80.17%，物业服务 16.23%，其他(补充)3.61%。 责任编辑：小浪快报 分红方面，万科AA股上市后累计派现1030.33亿元。近三年，累计派现80.63亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，万科A十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第四大流通 股东，持股1.72亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate ETF (512200) has shown a positive trend, with a 2.15% increase as of February 25, 2026, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate market following the Chinese New Year holiday [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The real estate ETF (512200) recorded a trading volume of 69.0258 million yuan, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Guangming Real Estate (up 10.07%), Chengdu Investment Holdings (up 9.96%), and I Love My Home (up 4.56%) [1]. - The market experienced a decline in overall trading volume during the previous week due to the Spring Festival holiday, but there was a rebound in market transactions compared to the same period in the previous year [1]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - Guotai Junan Securities suggests that the overall market transaction volume has shown signs of stabilization since the beginning of 2026, indicating a positive outlook for high-quality enterprises in the future [1]. - Huayuan Securities believes that the length and depth of the real estate adjustment in China have reached a relatively sufficient level, with current adjustments nearing historical averages in terms of both magnitude and duration [1]. - The central government's emphasis on "good housing" construction, accelerated REITs pilot programs, and expanded financial support for affordable housing are expected to contribute to the industry nearing the end of its adjustment phase [1]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Bank of China Securities highlights the importance of early positioning for "policy turning points," while the "fundamental turning point" opportunities may last longer, requiring price stabilization for sustained recovery [2]. - The "policy turning point" may manifest through increased policy enthusiasm on both the supply and demand sides of the real estate market, while the "fundamental turning point" is indicated by a narrowing decline in second-hand housing prices [2]. - Some real estate companies have adequately accounted for impairments in 2025, which may reduce impairment pressure in 2026 and 2027, presenting potential for reversal [2]. - Companies holding commercial real estate have proactively adapted to new business models and consumption trends, positioning themselves to capitalize on opportunities in the new consumption era [2]. Group 4: ETF Composition - The real estate ETF (512200) closely tracks the CSI All Share Real Estate Index, which categorizes sample securities into various industry classifications, providing a comprehensive analysis tool for investors [2]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, Vanke A, Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, Hainan Airport, Wantong Development, New City Holdings, Quzhou Development, Binhai Group, and Xianlead [2].

2月24日，各大机构公布了春节期间（2月15日～23日）重点城市新房及二手房成交数据。 据中指研究院监测，今年春节期间，楼市整体呈现典型的"假期模式"。受节日返乡、出游及部分城市网 签暂停更新等因素影响，重点城市新房及二手房网签成交量均处于季节性低位。 重点21城春节假期新建商品住宅共网签成交10万平方米，相比去年春节假期日均成交量基本持平。其 中，上海、温州、济南分别以1.36万平方米、1.08万平方米、1.01万平方米的成交量位居前三位；南 宁、青岛则在低基数影响下同比增幅较高。 | 各线 | 城市 | 2026春节假期 (2.15-2.23) 新建商品住宅 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 合计成交面积(万平米) | | 史上海 | | 1.36 | | 北京 | | 0.23 | | 深圳 | | 0.22RET- | | L W | | 0.14 | | 看州 | | 1.08 | | 济南 | | 1.01 DEIS | | 武汉 | | 中国 0.89 | | 成都 | | 0.54 | | 宁波 | | 0.49 | | -线 | 苏州 | 0.27 | | 福州 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the real estate industry [2] Core Views - The real estate market is experiencing a decline in new and second-hand housing transaction volumes, with new housing transaction area down by 28% year-on-year during the Spring Festival period [19][23] - The report highlights three main issues in the real estate market: a decline in new housing demand, unresolved inventory issues, and the negative impact of land finance on the economy [31] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The total number of listed companies in the real estate sector is 107, with a total market capitalization of 12,627.81 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 12,094.33 billion [2] Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance of the real estate sector is 0.9% for one month, 3.7% for six months, and 5.7% for twelve months, while the relative performance is 3.0%, -7.9%, and -13.7% respectively [3] Sales Data - New housing transaction area in 20 cities decreased by 28% year-on-year during the Spring Festival, with a total transaction area of 181 million square meters [19] - Second-hand housing transaction area in 11 cities decreased by 22% year-on-year during the same period, with a total transaction area of 156 million square meters [23] Policy News - Local policies include a housing subsidy program in Quzhou, providing up to 80,000 yuan for families with multiple children, and new measures in Huizhou to enhance housing fund support and optimize credit policies [13][16] Company Dynamics - Longfor Group reported a contract sales amount of 24.5 billion yuan in January, with a total sales area of 300,000 square meters [17] - China Overseas Development acquired land in Hong Kong for 18.688 billion HKD, designated for residential use [18] - China Resources Land reported a total contract sales amount of approximately 116.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.4% [18]

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Fupu New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. has initiated the listing guidance for A-share IPO with the support of Zheshang Securities, marking a significant step in its growth strategy [1] Company Overview - Fupu New Materials was established in 2016 with a registered capital of 430 million yuan [1] - The company specializes in the production and sales of ready-mixed ordinary and special concrete, prefabricated building components, autoclaved aerated concrete panels and blocks, building mortar, cement, and additives, positioning itself as a comprehensive green building materials manufacturer [1] Financial Performance - In 2022, Fupu New Materials achieved a revenue of 2.85864 billion yuan, ranking 81st among the top 100 private enterprises in Chongqing in 2023 [1] Partnerships - The company collaborates with major state-owned enterprises and real estate firms, including China Merchants Shekou, China National Nuclear Corporation, China Railway Construction Corporation, China Hydropower, Longfor, Vanke, and Jinmao Group [1]

作者：龚进辉 春节假期接近尾声，今天小米掌门人雷军在社交平台上透露，这个假期好好滑了6天雪，着实过了把 瘾，只不过天公不作美，6天里有4天下雪。"这是我本雪季的第一次滑雪，也是最后一次。"由此可见， 这位科技圈大忙人十分享受惬意的滑雪时光，过年身心得到彻底放松。 事实上，滑雪不仅让雷军尽可能放松，还是灵感的源泉。著名的"飞猪理论"，就是他40岁那年在一次滑 雪过程中顿悟的，并在创办小米过程中获得成功实践。金山办公前董事长葛珂曾评价道，"他滑雪是在 挑战自己，做什么都要做最好，他是天生的完美主义者。"不知不觉，雷军已经滑了22年雪，据说风格 激进，但从未摔伤过，可见他的滑雪技术非常高超。 马云：太极拳 阿里创始人马云自称是一位热爱太极和自由搏击多年的伪拳迷，从大学到现在，他跟过的太极拳老师不 下8位。如果打1988年马云从杭州师范大学毕业算起，其练太极拳的时间超过30年。大学期间，马云遇 到自己的第一位太极师父——冯素贞，冯素贞把壮汉腾空摔了出去，使他对太极拳刮目相看，彻底改变 了太极拳只是老头老太太的活动健身操这一偏见。 2009年，不仅是阿里成立10周年，马云也迎来太极生涯的一个重要转折点。当年年初，马云助 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kins Services, once valued at over 55 billion HKD, has officially delisted from the Hong Kong stock market after five years of listing, marking a significant shift in its operational strategy and ownership structure [1][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Kins Services was initially part of Kins Holdings and was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in October 2020, with an initial share price of 44.8 HKD, reaching a market cap of over 280 billion HKD on its first trading day [2][3]. - The company experienced a peak market valuation exceeding 550 billion HKD during its early years, positioning itself alongside other major property management firms [2]. Group 2: Ownership Changes - The ownership of Kins Services transitioned significantly when its parent company, Kins Holdings, faced a liquidity crisis, leading to the sale of a 22% stake to Boyu Capital for 37.34 billion HKD in December 2021 [3]. - Boyu Capital gradually increased its stake, becoming the largest shareholder by acquiring additional shares through a series of strategic moves, including a partial tender offer in November 2022 and a court-ordered auction in March 2025 [3][4]. Group 3: Delisting and Privatization - The delisting was initiated by Boyu Capital as part of a voluntary privatization process, with a tender offer made at 8.69 HKD per share, resulting in a 95.56% acceptance rate from shareholders [4][5]. - Following the privatization, Kins Services' market cap was approximately 52 billion HKD, reflecting a decline of over 90% from its historical peak [4]. Group 4: Financial Performance - Kins Services reported a total revenue of 2.335 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, a slight decrease of 3.1% year-on-year, while maintaining cash and liquid assets of 2.65 billion CNY [5]. - The company has faced cumulative losses of around 3.4 billion CNY over the past three years, leading to a significant reduction in its market valuation and operational capabilities [5]. Group 5: Industry Context - The delisting of Kins Services reflects broader trends in the real estate and property management sectors, where companies are increasingly opting for privatization due to low public market valuations and financial pressures [9]. - Similar cases of privatization and mergers have been observed in the industry, indicating a shift towards a focus on asset consolidation and operational efficiency in a challenging market environment [9].

Core Insights - Wang Shi's foresight during the 2008 financial crisis helped Vanke avoid pitfalls by advocating for cash flow management and inventory reduction as housing prices peaked [1] - In 2013, Wang warned of a housing bubble, using Japan's 1990s real estate crash as a cautionary tale, which led Vanke to adjust its strategy and maintain a lower debt ratio [3] - Wang's consistent emphasis on risk management and adapting to market conditions has allowed Vanke to navigate through various market fluctuations successfully [5][7] Group 1 - Wang Shi's early predictions about the housing market helped Vanke maintain stability during the 2008 crisis, as he advised against high leverage and excessive land acquisition [1] - In 2013, he highlighted the risks of a housing bubble, suggesting a shift towards rental business models, which Vanke adopted, keeping its debt levels below the industry average [3] - By 2016, Wang cautioned against irrational price increases, prompting Vanke to focus on quality development and asset sales to ensure financial health [5] Group 2 - Wang's insights into economic cycles have proven accurate, as Vanke consistently outperformed competitors during downturns, maintaining a focus on cash flow and risk control [7] - In 2023, Wang predicted a market adjustment period lasting three to five years, emphasizing the need for companies to reduce debt and adapt to changing policies [9] - The emphasis on sustainable growth and quality products is expected to benefit consumers and lead to a healthier market environment by 2026 [11][13]