Figure’s Home Equity Line of Credit token, or Figure Heloc, is getting big. The asset, which represents loans taken out through Figure against real estate, has grown to more than $15 billion in recent months, making it the 10th-largest crypto token listed on platforms like CoinGecko. Yet as its supply swells, critics argue it shouldn’t be compared to other crypto assets such as Cardano’s ADA and the $16 billion memecoin, Dogecoin. They argue that the token’s lack of onchain use and poor liquidity raise ...

Core Insights - Crypto venture capital funds are facing an identity crisis due to declining digital asset prices and market consolidations, revealing the industry's fragility in building sustainable businesses [1][2] - Retail traders are moving away from digital art and memecoins, with token prices crashing significantly, prompting crypto VCs to adopt a more traditional startup approach focused on product-market fit and long-term user retention [2][3] Market Performance - Bitcoin's price has dropped nearly 50% from its record high in October, while smaller altcoins have seen declines of up to 70% year over year, indicating a significant downturn in retail demand for cryptocurrencies [3] - Despite a crypto-friendly regulatory environment, the demand that previously fueled venture capital investments in tokens has diminished [3] Investment Shifts - Crypto-native funds are shifting their focus towards more stable areas such as stablecoin infrastructure and on-chain prediction markets, while also exploring adjacent sectors like fintech and AI [4][6] - Prominent crypto investment firms are pivoting towards deep tech investments, including robotics, as the focus moves away from traditional crypto sectors like NFTs and gaming [6] Fundraising Landscape - In 2025, venture firms invested $18.9 billion into crypto startups, a figure that, while substantial, is below the speculative highs of 2021 and 2022, and highlights a concentration of capital in a few major deals [7] - Nearly a third of the total VC investment in 2025 was allocated to just four deals, indicating a trend towards concentrated capital deployment in the crypto sector [7]

" 2026，脸正成为必需品？ "你好，我在。" 这句被无数智能音箱重复了亿万次的回应，曾是人机交互的里程碑，如今却成了一个亟待被打破的僵化符 号。 它代表了一种旧范式：明确的指令输入，换取被动、工具式的反馈输出。 2025年，人形机器人产业正经历着奇特的"身体与头部"发展的割裂。 一方面，本体运动控制突飞猛进，双足行走、上下楼梯、甚至跑酷的演示视频不断刷新着技术上限；另一方 面，当这些精巧的"身体"试图与人进行日常交流时，交互体验却往往停滞在智能音箱时代：一个冰冷的语音 合成器，被放置在了一副会动的躯壳之上。 "我们正处于'强本体，弱交互'的尴尬阶段。"一位资深机器人产业投资人指出，"机器人的腿脚越来越灵活， 但它的脸和表达却仍是机器人。这种割裂感，是阻碍其真正融入人类生活场景的核心障碍之一。" 这种割裂背后，是机器人技术栈长期以来的重心失衡。行业将超过80%的研发资源投入在运动、抓取等"生 存技能"上，而用于构建社会性、情感化连接的"交互智能"，却长期被视为锦上添花的附属功能。 2026年初春，上海，一家初创科技公司里，一场安静却意义深远的"变革"正在发生。 一台名为"灵智5号"的仿生头静静地置于工作台中 ...

Group 1 - The recent promotion by Qianwen App allowing users to purchase milk tea for 0.01 yuan signifies a pivotal moment for AI applications in China, moving from simple chat functions to actionable tasks [1] - OpenClaw, an open-source AI agent, has gained rapid popularity among developers, indicating a shift in AI applications towards more practical uses [2] - Investment analysts are optimistic about AI as a key market trend, with expectations for significant technological breakthroughs in AI multimodal applications and biomedical fields over the next few years [2][3] Group 2 - The emergence of "AI-native super applications" like LiblibAI is anticipated to create benchmark cases of user growth and revenue by 2026 [3] - The AI application market is transitioning from infrastructure investment to commercial value realization, with a focus on cash-generating applications in the downstream sector [3] - Hardware innovations in smartphones, cars, and smart home devices are expected to drive sustainable industry trends, with companies like Apple leading the charge [3] Group 3 - The field of embodied intelligence, particularly humanoid robots, is gaining attention, with expectations for significant advancements in 2026 [4] - Major robotics companies are collaborating with the 2026 CCTV Spring Festival Gala, showcasing the potential for humanoid robots to perform real-world tasks [4] - Breakthroughs in action models for humanoid robots are predicted to enhance their operational capabilities in unstructured environments [5] Group 4 - The commercial space sector is identified as a significant growth area, with expectations for a pivotal moment in 2026 when SpaceX is projected to go public [6] - Chinese commercial space companies are likely to successfully implement rocket recovery operations, marking a significant milestone for the industry [6] - The low Earth orbit satellite internet sector is entering a phase of industrial explosion, with a ten-year growth cycle anticipated [6][7] Group 5 - The rocket segment is under scrutiny due to its potential to address capacity bottlenecks and high costs, with a focus on companies that can successfully reduce costs [7] - The satellite operations market is viewed as a scarce resource, with significant potential for growth in traditional high-end markets and emerging low-altitude economies [7] - The concept of space computing, utilizing AI data centers in space, is being explored as a revolutionary approach to energy and computational efficiency [7] Group 6 - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the importance of quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, and other advanced fields as new economic growth points [9] - Key technological breakthroughs in areas like quantum computing and brain-machine interfaces are expected to occur by 2026, significantly impacting market confidence [9][10] - The Chinese pharmaceutical industry is poised for a breakthrough in global drug development, with several companies expected to achieve significant clinical trial results in 2026 [10] Group 7 - AI-driven drug development is anticipated to reach a validation point in 2026, showcasing the potential of AI in creating tangible medical solutions [10] - The brain-machine interface sector is expected to achieve clinical breakthroughs, particularly in flexible electrodes and signal processing chips [10] - Investment strategies are shifting towards companies that can effectively translate technological innovations into commercial success, moving away from resource accumulation [11]

Core Insights - The article discusses the rapid rise of AI applications, particularly highlighting the success of the OpenClaw AI agent and its implications for the future of AI technology and investment opportunities in 2026 [1][2]. AI and Embodied Intelligence - AI is viewed as a key market trend, with expectations for breakthroughs in multi-modal AI and biomedical fields over the next 2-3 years [1][2]. - OpenClaw, an open-source AI agent, has gained significant traction, indicating a shift towards practical AI applications that can perform tasks on behalf of users [2]. - Investment interest is focused on the emergence of super platforms and applications, with predictions of a surge in user engagement and revenue for AI-native applications by 2026 [2][3]. Hardware and Robotics - The AI application market is transitioning from infrastructure investment to commercial value realization, with a focus on cash flow-generating applications [3]. - There is potential for explosive growth in hardware, particularly in smart devices like smartphones and smart homes, driven by AI integration [3]. - The field of embodied intelligence, particularly humanoid robots, is expected to advance significantly, with predictions of breakthroughs in model efficiency and operational capabilities in real-world environments by 2026 [4][5]. Commercial Space Industry - The commercial space sector is identified as a significant growth area, with expectations for major developments, including the potential IPO of SpaceX, which could establish a new commercial model for the industry [5][6]. - The Chinese commercial space sector is anticipated to achieve milestones in rocket recovery and satellite internet, marking a critical point for rapid development [5][6]. Future Industry Breakthroughs - Emerging technologies such as quantum computing, biomanufacturing, and brain-computer interfaces are expected to see significant advancements by 2026, contributing to new economic growth points [7][8]. - The article highlights the potential for Chinese pharmaceutical companies to achieve significant milestones in drug development and clinical applications, particularly in AI-driven drug discovery and brain-computer interface technologies [8][9].

figure processes $12b in tokenized loans on provenance blockchain with $1b+ monthly originations. hash token trades at $1b market cap on $3k daily volume. institutions buy figure equity, ylds stablecoin, or prime yield directly. they don't need the token. infrastructure worth 12x the token but liquidity is completely broken. either token mechanics change or this stays the biggest valuation gap in crypto. ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2026-02-03 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 4067.73 | 14127.10 | 4660.10 | 15290.00 | 4148.91 | 1471.06 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 1.29 | 2.19 | 1.17 | 2.30 | 2.66 | 1.39 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 11107.20 | 14335.11 | 6666.26 | 4888.38 | 6773.19 | 988.26 | $$\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}\cong\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}$$ (4) [ (4) 36 $\mu$H$\mu$H$\mu$H$\mu$] 宏观与策略 宏观深度:宏观经济深度报告-有形之手（1）：财政 ABC 之"四本账" 固定收益深度:固收+系列报告之十 ...

Upgrades - DA Davidson upgraded Q2 Holdings (QTWO) to Buy from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $82, citing an attractive entry point due to the stock's pullback over the last 6-8 months [2] - Citi upgraded JetBlue (JBLU) to Neutral from Sell with a price target of $6, up from $4, noting "upside risks" and strategic optionality for the airline [3] - Morgan Stanley upgraded Affirm (AFRM) to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $76, down from $83, highlighting a compelling risk/reward scenario following recent stock weakness [3] - Daiwa upgraded Visa (V) to Outperform from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $370, revising earnings forecasts upward in light of Q1 earnings [4] - Northland upgraded Palantir (PLTR) to Outperform from Market Perform with a price target of $190, up from $185, following the company's strong Q4 results [4] Downgrades - Piper Sandler downgraded Adobe (ADBE) to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $330, down from $470, due to concerns over seat-compression and vibe coding narratives [5] - RBC Capital downgraded Elevance Health (ELV) to Sector Perform from Outperform with a price target of $358, down from $392, citing softer than expected 2026 guidance [5] - BofA downgraded Figure (FIGR) to Underperform from Neutral with a price target of $42, down from $43, noting a significant valuation gap compared to Coinbase [5] - BNP Paribas downgraded Exxon Mobil (XOM) to Underperform from Neutral with a price target of $125, up from $114, based on valuation concerns [5] - Roth Capital downgraded Coterra Energy (CTRA) to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $28, down from $30, believing no higher offers will materialize at this time [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by over 10% [5][10]. Core Insights - Meta's projected capital expenditure for 2026 is expected to reach between $115 billion and $135 billion, nearly double that of the previous year, driven by AI-enhanced advertising business [17]. - Figure's Helix02 humanoid robot has achieved significant breakthroughs in large models and neural networks, enhancing its applicability in household scenarios [3][18]. - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing intensified competition for orbital resources, with SpaceX applying to deploy a constellation of up to 1 million satellites, which may accelerate advancements in space traffic management technology [2]. Summary by Sections Key Events - Meta's capital expenditure forecast for 2026 is between $115 billion and $135 billion, significantly exceeding analyst expectations [17]. - Figure has launched the Helix02 humanoid robot, which integrates long-range fine manipulation and motion control through a novel three-layer architecture [18]. - SpaceX is seeking approval to deploy a satellite constellation of up to 1 million satellites, enhancing its computational capabilities for advanced AI [2]. Commercial Aerospace Insights - The limited capacity of near-Earth orbit satellites will intensify competition for orbital resources, leading to a "first-come, first-served" effect [2]. - Long-term investment opportunities in commercial aerospace are promising, particularly in the rocket segment, with a focus on key players like SpaceX and domestic companies such as Landspace and CASIC [2]. Humanoid Robotics Insights - The advancements in Figure's Helix02 are expected to unlock new applications in domestic environments as the versatility of humanoid robots increases [3]. - Investment opportunities in humanoid robotics should focus on companies with strong supply chains and market positioning, such as Hengli Hydraulic and Wison Group [3][8]. AI Infrastructure Insights - Meta's capital expenditure forecast indicates a robust outlook for AI infrastructure, particularly in gas turbine and liquid cooling sectors [4]. - Key investment areas include the gas turbine supply chain and high-value segments in liquid cooling systems [4][8]. Company Profit Forecasts - Several companies are rated "Outperform," including: - Green Harmony (688017.SH) with a projected EPS of 0.67 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 342 [10]. - Huichuan Technology (300124.SZ) with an EPS of 2.06 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 36 [10]. - Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH) with an EPS of 1.87 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 58 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by more than 10% [5][10]. Core Insights - Meta's projected capital expenditure for 2026 is expected to reach between $115 billion and $135 billion, nearly double that of the previous year, driven by AI-enhanced advertising business [17]. - Figure's Helix02 humanoid robot has achieved significant breakthroughs in large models and neural networks, enhancing its applicability in household scenarios [3][18]. - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing intensified competition for orbital resources, with SpaceX applying to deploy a constellation of up to 1 million satellites [2][5]. Summary by Sections Commercial Aerospace - The limited capacity of satellites in low Earth orbit will intensify the "first-come, first-served" effect, leading to increased competition for orbital resources. The report remains optimistic about long-term investment opportunities in commercial aerospace, particularly in the rocket segment [2]. - Key companies to watch include SpaceX and domestic private rocket manufacturers like Landspace and CASIC, focusing on critical structural components and new applications of 3D printing [2]. Humanoid Robots - The report highlights the long-term investment potential in humanoid robots, emphasizing the importance of value capture and certainty in investment. Companies with strong positions in the Tesla supply chain are recommended, such as Hengli Hydraulic and Wuzhou New Spring [3][8]. - The report suggests focusing on incremental segments with high stock elasticity, including core suppliers and companies with strong market positions [3][8]. AI Infrastructure - Meta's capital expenditure forecast indicates a robust outlook for AI infrastructure, particularly in gas turbines and liquid cooling technologies. The report suggests focusing on the gas turbine supply chain, including key components like turbine blades and generator sets [4][8]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of liquid cooling systems, recommending companies involved in both primary and secondary cooling components [4][8]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for several companies, all rated "Outperform," including: - Green's Harmony (688017.SH) with an EPS of 0.67 for 2025 and 0.95 for 2026 [10]. - Huichuan Technology (300124.SZ) with an EPS of 2.06 for 2025 and 2.46 for 2026 [10]. - Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH) with an EPS of 0.79 for 2025 and 1.00 for 2026 [10].