Group 1 - Elon Musk announced on Twitter that he has just left Tesla's design studio and promised an "epic shock" presentation by the end of the year [3] - AstraZeneca reported that its experimental hypertension drug Baxdrostat effectively lowers blood pressure in patients with resistant or poorly controlled hypertension [3] - Google has agreed to pay approximately $2.4 billion to acquire technology licensing from AI coding startup Windsurf and has hired its CEO and some employees [3] Group 2 - The European Union has postponed countermeasures against U.S. tariffs until early August [4] - Bitcoin has surpassed $120,000 per coin, reaching a new all-time high and touching $123,000 during the day [4] - Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will hold a media briefing in Beijing [4] - Pony.ai has launched mass production and road testing of its seventh-generation autonomous Robotaxi [4] - Meta has acquired a startup focused on AI voice technology, Play AI [4] - Lloyds Bank is collaborating with cryptocurrency exchange Archax to allow digital assets as collateral for foreign exchange contracts [4] - The China State Administration for Market Regulation has approved Synopsys' $35 billion acquisition of ANSYS with additional restrictive conditions [4] - TSMC plans to initiate vendor selection for its P3 plant in Arizona this quarter, aiming to complete the bidding process by the end of the year [4]

Core Viewpoint - Intel's Nova Lake-S CPU has begun production using TSMC's advanced 2nm technology, with an expected market launch in Q3 2026 [1] Group 1: Production and Technology - Intel has officially started the production of at least one chip utilizing TSMC's 2nm technology, which provides production flexibility by combining Intel's 18A process with TSMC's N2 node [1] - This production strategy may help avoid delays or shortages that could arise from Intel's own manufacturing limitations [1] Group 2: Processor Architecture - The Nova Lake-S processor features a complex architecture with a total of 52 cores, including 16 high-performance cores, 32 efficiency-focused cores, and 4 additional cores optimized for ultra-low power [1] - It integrates an advanced memory controller supporting speeds of up to 8,800 MT/s, enhancing overall performance [1] - Graphics functions will be managed by the Xe3 "Celestial" processor, while media decoding and display tasks will be handled by the Xe4 "Druid," emphasizing the distribution of various functional roles across subsystems [1]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the electronic sector, indicating a gradual recovery in demand and price stabilization, recommending a slow accumulation of positions in the market [5][6]. Core Insights - The electronic sector is experiencing a mild recovery, driven by strong downstream demand from AIOT and accelerated product penetration by companies like Lexin Technology and Rockchip, which are expected to report impressive half-year results [5][6]. - The release of the multi-modal model Grok 4 by xAI has significantly enhanced reasoning capabilities, potentially opening new application scenarios [5][11]. - The report highlights four main investment themes: AIOT, AI-driven technologies, equipment materials, and consumer electronics [5][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report notes that the semiconductor sector is entering a period of intensive earnings forecasts, with companies like Lexin Technology and Rockchip expected to show substantial revenue growth due to ongoing demand in AIOT and other emerging fields [5][6]. Company Performance - Lexin Technology anticipates a revenue of CNY 1.22-1.25 billion for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 33%-36%, with net profit expected to rise by 65%-78% [5][17]. - Rockchip expects to achieve approximately CNY 2.045 billion in revenue, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 64%, with net profit projected to increase by 185%-195% [5][17]. Market Trends - The report indicates that the electronic industry outperformed the broader market, with the Shenzhen and Shanghai 300 Index rising by 0.82% and the Shenwan Electronics Index increasing by 0.93% [19][21]. - The semiconductor sub-sector showed a positive trend, with a 1.07% increase in semiconductor stocks [21][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies benefiting from strong domestic and international demand in the AIOT sector, such as Lexin Technology and Rockchip [5][6]. - It also suggests monitoring AI innovation-driven sectors, including computing chips and optical devices, as well as upstream supply chain components [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's upcoming earnings call on Thursday is highly anticipated, with foreign investors focusing on five key topics: the impact of the New Taiwan Dollar appreciation on operations, potential changes in capital expenditures for the year, the status of advanced process and packaging capacity, the outlook for artificial intelligence (AI), and the effects of the "Inflation Reduction Act" [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Impact - The appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar is a major concern for investors, particularly regarding its impact on TSMC's fundamentals. Morgan Stanley estimates that a 10% appreciation in Q2 will reduce TSMC's gross margin by over 3%, lowering the expected gross margin for the second half of the year from 58%-59% to 55%-56% [1]. - Morgan Stanley has also revised TSMC's earnings per share (EPS) estimates down by 6% and 12% for this year and next, resulting in new EPS figures of NT$55.01 and NT$64.61, respectively [1]. Group 2: Capital Expenditures - Goldman Sachs anticipates no major surprises in TSMC's earnings call regarding capital expenditures, maintaining a target range of USD 38 billion to 42 billion for the year and a projected revenue growth of 28.7% [2]. - The company is expected to maintain its USD revenue growth target of 20% year-over-year [2]. Group 3: Advanced Process and AI Outlook - In terms of advanced processes, Goldman Sachs predicts that TSMC's pricing for processes below 5nm will increase by 3% annually, while CoWoS packaging prices will rise by 5%. The demand for 2nm processes in smartphones may exceed expectations, driving growth for TSMC next year [2]. - Citigroup forecasts that GPUs will continue to dominate the AI market, with ASICs also showing growth. Starting in the second half of 2026, AI chips are expected to transition to 3nm processes, leading to significant increases in average selling prices and enhanced computing power [2]. - JPMorgan notes that TSMC's fundamental demand momentum is more optimistic compared to three months ago, driven by strong AI demand and limited reductions in Apple orders, projecting a 29% year-over-year revenue growth for TSMC this year [2]. Group 4: Inflation Reduction Act - Morgan Stanley believes that the "Inflation Reduction Act" will increase semiconductor tax credits from 25% to 35%, benefiting TSMC, which qualifies for this incentive. Additionally, TSMC's commitment to investing in U.S. fabs may enhance its chances of obtaining tariff exemptions, thereby alleviating profit pressures from U.S. expansion [3].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is expected to achieve record high revenue in USD this quarter, driven by the launch of NVIDIA's GB300 AI chip and the new iPhone 17 series, with projections indicating revenue will remain above $30 billion, growing by 3% to 7% quarter-over-quarter [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - TSMC will hold an earnings call on Thursday (17th) to announce last quarter and half-year financial results, as well as outlook for the current quarter [1] - Analysts predict that the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar may reduce the surprise factor in TSMC's profit figures for the last quarter, with gross margin and operating margin expected to approach lower limits [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The GB300 chip is set to enter mass production, becoming a key driver for TSMC's high-performance computing (HPC) business, with NVIDIA's next-generation AI chip platform, Rubin, expected to launch in 2026, further tightening capacity utilization for TSMC's 3nm family [1] - The GB300 chip enhances AI inference capabilities, supporting applications in generative AI, agent AI, and physical AI [1] Group 3: Supply Chain Insights - The GB300 chip's performance improvements are anticipated to be a major highlight in the AI industry for the second half of the year, with TSMC being the primary manufacturer [2] - Foxconn is expected to secure the largest share of orders for AI server assembly, with other companies like Quanta, Wistron, and Inventec also ramping up shipments [1][2] Group 4: Product Launches - The upcoming launch of Apple's iPhone 17 series is expected to boost TSMC's advanced process orders, with supply chain estimates indicating a single-digit percentage increase in the flagship model's inventory compared to last year [2] - The new iPhone's AI features are projected to increase silicon content, making it a significant outlet for TSMC's 3nm family, with Apple also set to be the first customer for TSMC's upcoming 2nm capacity [2]

Group 1: Tariffs and Trade - The U.S. President Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting next month, an increase from the previously set 25% [1] - Trump suggested raising tariffs on other countries to 15% or 20%, up from the current 10% [1] - Market participants are facing uncertainty as the August 1 tariff implementation date approaches, with ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and other countries [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The market reacted more calmly to the new tariff announcements compared to the sharp declines seen after the "liberation day" in April [2] - Major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down, while the Dow Jones broke its longest three-week winning streak since January [2] - Nvidia became the first company to reach a market capitalization of $4 trillion, with its stock hitting a historical high [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The upcoming U.S. CPI data and retail sales figures are expected to influence the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rate cuts [4][10] - The June CPI is anticipated to rise from 2.4% to 2.7% year-on-year, which could impact the Fed's rate cut considerations [11] - The June PPI and retail sales data will also be released, providing further insights into inflation and consumer spending [12] Group 4: Company Earnings - The second-quarter earnings season is set to begin, with major companies like JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Netflix, and TSMC reporting [17] - Netflix's upcoming earnings report is particularly significant, as its stock recently reached an all-time high, necessitating impressive results to maintain its upward trend [17] - The financial sector is expected to provide positive signals, while tech giants, especially Nvidia, may drive further market gains [17]

Group 1 - Macquarie has consolidated its preferred stocks from Japan and other Asian regions into a single focus list, currently comprising 31 high-conviction, actionable investment targets [1][2] - The key drivers unique to each stock are critical for the selection of focus stocks, with the top three performers over the past month being Advantest, SK Hynix, and Hyundai Rotem [1] - The latest addition to the focus list is d'Alba from South Korea, which is expected to have a compound annual growth rate of 42% for its core product portfolio by 2028 [1][2] Group 2 - Macquarie's focus list reflects investment opportunities across 11 Asian countries and regions, showcasing a basket of high-conviction investment ideas derived from approximately 800 stocks covered by the firm [2] - The firm has removed several companies from the focus list, including Daifuku, Denso, Freee, MGM China, and others, due to changes in analyst coverage and relative conviction levels [2] - Macquarie believes that stocks on the focus list will generate significant absolute returns within a 6-12 month timeframe [2] Group 3 - The focus list includes notable stocks such as Xiaomi Corp, SK Hynix Inc, and d'Alba Global Co Ltd, among others, with a majority positioned as long [3][4]

Macro Insights - The macro policy for the second half of the year may involve non-traditional measures, with a focus on price stability and the marginal improvement of asset prices, particularly in equity products [2][32] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to drive companies to reduce capital expenditures and clear excess capacity, leading to improved economic supply-demand relationships and enhanced corporate profitability [3][44] Strategy Insights - The "anti-involution" trend is identified as a key driver for a bullish market, with high-quality stocks likely to play a crucial role in pushing indices higher [3][44] - AI is recognized as a core driver of the current technological revolution, creating investment opportunities across multiple industries in the A-share market [3][44] - Key sectors to watch in July include solid-state batteries, domestic computing power, non-bank financials, defense and military, and innovative pharmaceuticals, all showing signs of marginal improvement [3][44] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3510.18, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.09% [5][7] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10696.10, with a weekly increase of 1.78% [8] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7% in June, indicating a slight recovery, while the construction PMI significantly improved to 52.8% due to accelerated infrastructure projects [12][13] - Consumer spending showed mixed results, with significant growth in automobile and home appliance sales driven by government subsidies, while other sectors like clothing and cosmetics remained weak [13][14] Industry Trends - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with declining sales and investment, leading to a negative outlook for related sectors [13][14] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to address price competition and improve product quality, particularly in the durable consumer goods sector [30][44]

Core Viewpoint - ASML's stock performance in 2024 has been poor, with its market value remaining around $280 billion despite significant fluctuations throughout the year, primarily due to disappointing order volumes and external market pressures [1][4]. Group 1: ASML's Financial Performance - ASML's market value dropped from a peak of $432.4 billion on July 10 to a low of $259.1 billion by November 15, representing a 40% decline [1]. - In Q3 2024, ASML reported new orders of only €2.6 billion, significantly below analyst expectations of €5.4 billion [1]. - The company sold only 44 EUV lithography machines in 2024, a decrease of 9 units or 17% from the previous year, largely due to reduced demand from major clients like Intel and Samsung [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competitors - TSMC, ASML's largest customer, experienced a remarkable stock performance in 2024, with its market value increasing from $520 billion to $1.1 trillion, nearly doubling [2]. - TSMC's revenue and net profit grew by 39% and 54% year-on-year, respectively, driven by strong demand for AI chips [2]. - Nikon has re-entered the high-end lithography market, launching a new ArF immersion lithography machine, aiming to capture market share in China following ASML's exit [5][6]. Group 3: Political and Regulatory Factors - ASML's sales to China, which constituted 49% of its revenue in Q1 2024, have been severely impacted by U.S. export restrictions, dropping to 27% by Q4 2024 and projected to fall to around 20% in 2025 [4]. - The Dutch government has expressed dissatisfaction with U.S. pressures limiting ASML's exports to China, indicating a desire for more autonomy in export policy decisions [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - ASML's confidence in market performance for 2025 is low, leading the CFO to announce that the company will stop quarterly reporting of new order amounts [8]. - The rise of China's semiconductor manufacturing capabilities is anticipated, with significant advancements in domestic lithography technology being reported [9].

Earnings Reports - Major companies such as JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N), Citigroup (C.N), Goldman Sachs (GS.N), Netflix (NFLX.O), and TSMC (TSM.N) are scheduled to release their Q2 earnings next week [1]. Economic Data - Key economic data to be released next week includes China's Q2 GDP year-on-year, June trade balance, and June industrial output year-on-year [1]. - In the U.S., June CPI, PPI, and initial jobless claims for the week ending July 12 will be published [1]. Federal Reserve Activities - The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book on economic conditions, and several Fed officials are scheduled to speak next week [1].