丨证券研究报告丨 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 行业研究丨专题报告丨机械 [Table_Title] 人形机器人系列（十二）：政策+资本驱动国内人 形机器人产业快速发展 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 政策在近两年在人形机器人产业发展发挥重要催化、引导作用。2024-2025 年政策一直保持推 动具身智能和人形机器人产业发展的连贯性。同时，多地政府积极参与产投基金设立，高屋建 瓴的政策+配套产业基金+具体"产学研"机构是个相对完整且成熟的模式。资本加速布局人形 机器人、具身智能赛道，今年以来多个头部厂商获得战略投资，上市企业亦在积极参与头部人 形机器人厂商的并购整合或技术合作，国内人形机器人的产业集群更加体系化，产业实力持续 夯实。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵智勇 倪蕤 刘晓舟 SAC：S0490517110001 SAC：S0490520030003 SAC：S0490524030001 SFC：BRP550 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 人形机器人系列（十二）：政策 2] +资本驱动国内人 形机器人产业快速发展 ...

Group 1: Industry Development and Investment Opportunities - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing accelerated financing and development, with a focus on key manufacturers and core component suppliers [1] - Investment recommendations include actuator and motor manufacturers such as Zhaowei Electromechanical, Mingzhi Electric, and Jiechang Drive; reducer companies like Reddy Intelligent Drive, Haoneng Co., and Zhongdali De; and ball screw manufacturers including Hengli Hydraulic and Best [1] - The report highlights the importance of sensors and complete machines, recommending companies like Donghua Testing, Keli Sensor, and UBTECH for humanoid robots [1] Group 2: Recent Developments in Humanoid Robotics - Tesla's Optimus robot will serve as a waiter at the first Tesla-themed restaurant, which opens on July 21, enhancing the application of humanoid robots in service industries [2] - The collaboration between Tiangong Robotics and Yuejiang in education and logistics is accelerating, with the Walker S2 robot capable of autonomous battery swapping for 24/7 operation [2] - The delivery of over 300 units in the education sector is expected by 2025, while Yuejiang's dual-arm collaborative robot improves logistics efficiency by 50% and accuracy to 99.9% [2] Group 3: Financing Trends in the Robotics Sector - The financing landscape for embodied intelligence is accelerating, with HanYang Technology's Yarbo securing over 100 million yuan in B+ round financing for global expansion [3] - Modulus Technology received millions in angel round financing to focus on multi-modal tactile sensing technology [3] - Itstone Intelligent Navigation completed a $122 million angel+ round financing led by Meituan, enhancing the deployment of embodied intelligence technology [3]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the humanoid robot industry, highlighting significant growth potential driven by policy support and technological advancements [3][10]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing rapid development, with government policies emphasizing embodied intelligence as a key focus for future industrial growth [10]. - Major companies are investing heavily in humanoid robotics, leading to accelerated technological progress and market expansion [3][8]. - The production of humanoid robots is set to increase significantly, with projections estimating a global market size of 150 billion yuan by 2029 [3][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Emergence of the Humanoid Robot Industry - The humanoid robot sector is entering a phase of industrialization, with advancements in AI enhancing interaction and learning capabilities [6][8]. 2. Harmonic Reducers: Acceleration of Domestic Production - Domestic manufacturers are ramping up production of harmonic reducers, which are critical components for humanoid robots [22][39]. 3. Planetary Roller Screws: Breakthrough in Domestic Production - The planetary roller screw market is expanding, with increasing applications in various industries, including automotive and robotics [56][68]. 4. Frameless Torque Motors: Domestic Performance Surpassing Expectations - Domestic frameless torque motors are showing competitive advantages in performance and cost, contributing to the overall growth of the humanoid robot market [28][29]. 5. Dexterous Hands: Technological Iteration and Upgrades - The development of dexterous hands is crucial for enhancing the functionality of humanoid robots, with ongoing technological improvements [22][28]. 6. Six-Dimensional Torque Sensors: Continuous Cost Reduction - The market for six-dimensional torque sensors is expected to grow as costs decrease, making them more accessible for humanoid robot applications [22][28]. 7. Market Potential and Production Plans - Companies like Tesla and Figure AI are planning significant production increases, with Tesla aiming for 5000 units in 2025 and up to 1 million units by 2029 [17][19].

Group 1 - Figure plans to deploy humanoid robots on a large scale within four years, aiming to transform the labor market [1][3] - The cost of Figure's latest humanoid robot design has been reduced by approximately 90%, with a production capacity of 100,000 units per year in new factories [3] - The MagicBot Z1, released by MagicLab, features advanced joint performance with a maximum torque exceeding 130N.m and up to 49 degrees of freedom, enhancing its movement capabilities [4] Group 2 - The inaugural Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Construction Robot Competition opened in Guangzhou, featuring 32 companies competing and showcasing technology [4][5] - The competition aims to promote intelligent construction transformation, with over 40 signing intentions achieved on the first day [5] - The event will continue until the end of July, with a closing ceremony scheduled in Hong Kong [5]

Group 1 - Circle's stock surged 19% in the US market, reflecting global recognition of stablecoin compliance development, which is beneficial for China's Xinchuang (information technology application innovation) industry [1] - Circle's collaboration with domestic Xinchuang companies has resulted in practical applications, such as a blockchain-based cross-border payment system developed with Dongxin HePing, certified by the central bank and piloted in six cities [1][2] - The integration of Circle's USDC stablecoin technology with domestic blockchain solutions is expected to accelerate the application of Xinchuang technology in cross-border payments and digital identity in Southeast Asia [1][2] Group 2 - The Xinchuang industry is accelerating the autonomous and controllable process of blockchain technology, with companies like Dongfang Securities completing a full-stack domestic replacement of their blockchain platform [2] - Circle's success validates the feasibility of blockchain technology in finance, promoting domestic Xinchuang companies to iterate on technology architecture and security standards [2] - China Mobile's "Zhongyi Chain" achieved a transaction throughput of over 56,000 CTPS in a trusted blockchain performance evaluation, setting a benchmark for high-concurrency applications [2] Group 3 - Circle's application in cross-border payments aligns with China's strategy to internationalize the digital yuan, with the central bank establishing an international operation center for the digital yuan [3] - The efficiency of Circle's USDC in cross-border settlements provides a reference model for the digital yuan, which is expected to reach a cross-border payment amount of 64.1 trillion yuan in 2024 [3] - The market enthusiasm for Circle may further encourage policy support for cross-border scenarios of the digital yuan, benefiting payment system service providers and financial IT companies within the Xinchuang industry chain [3] Group 4 - Chinese policies explicitly support blockchain technology breakthroughs, with initiatives like Beijing's "reveal the list and take the lead" mechanism promoting the construction of the Xinchuang chain technology ecosystem [4] - Circle's compliance path offers a reference for domestic regulation, potentially accelerating the exploration of stablecoin-related technologies within the Xinchuang framework [4] - As of June 30, the digital currency concept stocks accounted for over 15% of the Xinchuang ETF fund's index, indicating significant investment interest in this area [4] Group 5 - The Xinchuang industry is transitioning from policy-driven to a dual-driven approach of policy and market, with significant growth expected in the financial and energy sectors [6] - The market scale is projected to grow at rates of 17.84% and 26.82% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, surpassing 2.6 trillion yuan by 2026 [6] - The expansion of special national bonds and the implementation of debt reduction plans provide funding support for Xinchuang procurement [6] Group 6 - The Xinchuang ETF fund (562030) tracks the CSI Xinchuang Index, covering core segments of the Xinchuang industry chain, which is characterized by high growth and elasticity [7] - The current geopolitical environment and the urgent need for self-control drive the development of the Xinchuang sector, supported by government initiatives [7] - The upcoming key time nodes for Xinchuang advancement and the refinement of procurement standards are expected to enhance market dynamics [7]

Core Insights - The article discusses the increasing importance of six-dimensional force sensors in humanoid robots, which are transitioning from performance-oriented designs to practical applications in factories [1][10] - The demand for high-precision sensors is rising as humanoid robots are expected to perform complex tasks, necessitating advanced sensory feedback systems [10][12] Group 1: Market Trends - In the first half of this year, leading manufacturers of six-dimensional force sensors have seen shipment volumes reach thousands for single robot clients [1] - The market for humanoid robots is projected to grow significantly, with an estimated 2,000 units expected to be sold in China in 2024 and a global shipment forecast of 18,000 units by 2025 [9] - The penetration rate of six-dimensional force sensors in humanoid robots is anticipated to exceed 30% in the future [9] Group 2: Technological Developments - Six-dimensional force sensors are crucial for enabling robots to perform delicate tasks, as they can sense forces and moments in all six dimensions [4][5] - The technology behind these sensors involves complex algorithms that decode strain data into clear force and moment signals, enhancing the sensor's adaptability to dynamic environments [5][12] - The cost of six-dimensional force sensors has decreased by approximately 30% compared to last year, facilitating their entry into small-scale production [11] Group 3: Industry Challenges - The lack of standardized products in the robotics industry has led to a reliance on customized solutions, posing challenges for core component manufacturers [12] - Companies are focusing on balancing production capacity, cost control, and R&D investment to meet the growing market demand [11][14] - The rapid technological iteration in humanoid robots requires suppliers to maintain a fast response rate to client needs [12][14] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The current market for force sensors has not yet entered a phase of aggressive price competition, allowing manufacturers to retain some bargaining power [14] - Companies are collaborating closely with robot manufacturers to support each other's development rather than engaging in fierce competition [14] - The ability to deliver quickly and innovate will be critical for companies to secure advantageous positions in the humanoid robot supply chain [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the growing importance of six-dimensional force sensors in humanoid robots as they transition from performance-oriented to practical applications in factories [1][3][9] - The demand for humanoid robots is increasing, with projections indicating that China will see approximately 2,000 units sold in 2024, and global sales could reach 18,000 units by 2025 [8][10] - Six-dimensional force sensors are becoming essential for precise operations in robots, as they provide critical feedback for tasks that require delicate handling [9][10] Group 2 - The cost of six-dimensional force sensors has decreased by about 30% compared to the previous year, indicating a trend towards more affordable production [10][12] - Companies are facing challenges in balancing production capacity, cost control, and R&D investment as the market for robotic components expands [10][12] - The industry is currently in a phase of collaboration rather than fierce competition, with companies focusing on joint development and support rather than price wars [13]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed contrasting trends, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearly falling below 3500 points but closing at 3505, while the ChiNext Index surged by 1.73% despite over 4000 stocks declining [1][3]. Policy Impact - The Central Financial Committee has initiated measures to "govern low-price competition," leading to a 30% reduction in photovoltaic glass production and cement production limits, which could benefit the steel and building materials sectors [3]. - Rebar steel inventory has dropped to its lowest level this year, indicating potential recovery for cyclical stocks [3]. Sector Performance - High-dividend sectors like banking and electricity have seen significant capital outflows, with over 12 billion net outflow in three days, and the dividend yield for the China Securities Bank Index has fallen to 3.89% [3]. - The semiconductor sector has been energized by the news of NVIDIA's H20 chip resuming sales to China, leading to significant stock price increases for leading companies like Xinyi and Zhongji Xuchuang [3]. Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index is experiencing short-term adjustment pressure near the 3500-point mark, while the ChiNext Index shows signs of potential continuation in its upward trend [4]. - Despite a net outflow of 52.4 billion in main funds, sectors like AI hardware and robotics are attracting investment, indicating a shift from high-dividend stocks to technology growth stocks [4]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on technology stocks with solid core technologies and performance, such as Xinyi and Zhongji Xuchuang, especially those with clear profit growth expectations [5]. - High-dividend stocks should be monitored for potential entry points when yields return to reasonable levels, such as bank stocks yielding over 5% [5]. - A cautious approach is recommended, maintaining a 70% investment position while keeping 30% liquid to manage market volatility [5].

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Kepler Robotics Co., Ltd. is focusing on strategic partnerships with listed companies in the automotive and robotics supply chain rather than traditional financial investors to enhance its capabilities and resources in the humanoid robotics sector [6][10]. Financing and Investment - Kepler completed an A+ round of financing on July 9, 2023, with new investors including listed companies Taotao Automotive and Furande, alongside previous investors from its A and Pre-A rounds [6][7]. - The company aims to build an industrial chain resource and address key component shortages in humanoid robotics, emphasizing that financial investors may not provide the necessary industry empowerment [6][10]. Industry Collaboration - The seven listed companies involved in Kepler's financing primarily focus on upstream component manufacturing and material supply, which can be leveraged for humanoid robotics development [8]. - Kepler is forming joint ventures with some of its investors to enhance collaboration and resource integration, such as establishing a company focused on robotic dexterous hands [9]. Product Development Strategy - Kepler adopts a "hardware-first" approach, believing that a stable and cost-effective hardware foundation is crucial for success in the humanoid robotics market [12][13]. - The company is developing both bipedal humanoid robots and wheeled robots, with the latter being seen as a transitional form for factory deployment [16]. Market Potential and Challenges - The humanoid robotics market is expected to see significant growth, with Kepler projecting a production capacity of 500 units per year from its new assembly plant [17]. - The company anticipates that its humanoid robots will be commercially viable in industrial settings, particularly for repetitive tasks, despite current challenges in scaling production [14][18]. Financial Considerations - Kepler's pricing strategy aims to provide a cost advantage in the market, with its "Pioneer K2" robot priced at approximately $30,000, which is competitive compared to traditional labor costs [13][17]. - The company is cautious about overextending financially, focusing on product development and market readiness before pursuing large-scale financing [18].

Market Overview - The Embodied Intelligence Index declined by 1.1% from July 7-11, ranking last among 31 primary industry indices and underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 1.92 percentage points [1] - Year-to-date, the index has increased by 23.92%, outperforming the CSI 300 by about 21.89 percentage points [1] - The latest static PE ratio for the index is approximately 40.14 times, indicating a historically high valuation level [1] - The total trading volume of the index's constituent stocks reached 12.264 billion shares, a decrease of 0.4% from the previous week, reflecting a medium historical level [1] - The turnover rate was 7.32%, ranking 26th in market activity [1] - The sentiment in the sector was influenced by the adjustment in the production rhythm of T-chain, with 7.8 Zhiyuan planning to gain control of Wais New Materials through agreement transfer and tender offer, boosting domestic chain enthusiasm [1] - The top five gainers for the week included Haosen Intelligent, Henggong Precision, Rifa Precision Machinery, Dafeng Industrial, and Zhongdali De [1] Key Industry Events - Zhiyuan Robotics announced plans to gain control of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board listed company Wais New Materials through agreement transfer and tender offer [2] - Musk's XAI released the GroK-4 large model [2] - Biyidi and Hong Kong University of Science and Technology jointly established an embodied intelligence laboratory [2] - Magic Atom launched the new generation humanoid robot MagicBotZ1 [2] - Yuejiang Robotics released a six-legged bionic robot dog [2] - Haon Automotive and Shanghai Zhiyuan New Technology reached a cooperation agreement to actively layout in the robotics field [2] - Keli Sensor strategically invested in Hashan Technology [2] - DeMa established the world's first humanoid robot training and data collection factory for logistics scenarios [2] - Jizhi Jia officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with a market value exceeding 22 billion HKD [2] - Zhiyuan Robotics supplier Lens Material Technology went public [2] - Yundongchu Technology completed nearly 500 million yuan in new financing [2] - Xiaomi's embodied intelligence startup Xiaoyu Zhizao completed a 100 million yuan A+ round of financing [2] Latest Insights - Although the production progress of Optimus has been delayed, affecting sector sentiment, leading domestic robotics companies are actively seeking to go public, indicating a potential new upward opportunity for the domestic chain [3] - In the short term, companies with rapid landing capabilities in specific scenarios are favored, while in the long term, attention is on leading enterprises with deep technical accumulation and strong product ecosystems [3] - Key application scenarios to focus on include industrial logistics, elderly care for B2B institutions, special environments (such as converter steelmaking and power inspection), agriculture, and consumer companionship & toy robots [3] - The "big and small brain" technology path remains diverse, with data training, real machine data collection, video data imitation learning, and simulation solutions progressing simultaneously [3] - Attention should be given to component manufacturers with production advantages and supply chain opportunities, particularly regarding the future direction of T-chain solutions and related targets with strong certainty or marginal changes [3] Suggested Companies to Watch - Mechanical Group: Sanhua Intelligent Control, Lide Harmonic Drive, Fengli Intelligent, Zhongdali De, Wuzhou New Spring, Hengli Hydraulic, Zhejiang Rongtai, Mingzhi Electric, Zhaowei Machinery, Dingzhi Material Technology, Jiechang Drive, Hanwei Technology, Fule New Materials [4] - New Energy Group: Wolong Electric Drive, Xingyuan Materials, Fulian Precision, Huichuan Technology, Zhenyu Technology [4] - Automotive Group: Suteng Juchuang, Top Group, Bertley, Jingzhuan Technology, Xusheng Group, Junsheng Electronics, Dihorizon Robotics-W, Shuanglin Co., Beite Technology, Zhongding Co., Lingyun Co., Best, Aihua Di, Anpeilong [4]