公 2025 电量蓄水双高，高股息优势凸显 长江电力(600900) 长江电力 2025 业绩快报点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴杰(分析师) | 021-23183818 | wujie3@gtht.com | S0880525040109 | | 傅逸帆(分析师) | 021-23185698 | fuyifan@gtht.com | S0880525040042 | 本报告导读： 2025 业绩亮眼，蓄能保障 26H1 枯期电量，低利率环境下高股息、稳现金流优势显 著。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 78,144 | 84,492 | 85,882 | 84,834 | 88,712 | | (+/-)% | 13.5% | 8.1% | 1.6% | -1.2% | 4.6% | ...

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant outflows of main funds from various stocks, highlighting potential concerns in specific sectors and companies [1][2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Fund Outflows - TBEA Co., Ltd. experienced a fund outflow of 1.85 billion yuan with a decline of 0.42% in stock price [2] - BlueFocus Communication Group saw a substantial outflow of 1.749 billion yuan, with a sharp drop of 8.85% [2] - China Satellite Communications faced a fund outflow of 1.345 billion yuan and a decrease of 1.71% [2] - Kunlun Wanwei reported an outflow of 894 million yuan and a decline of 8.6% [2] - Huasheng Tiancheng had a fund outflow of 775 million yuan, with a stock price drop of 7.08% [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The electric power sector, represented by Changjiang Electric Power, saw an outflow of 729 million yuan and a minor decline of 0.89% [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, experienced an outflow of 643 million yuan with a decrease of 0.78% [2] - The software development sector, represented by companies like Weining Health and Yonyou Network, faced outflows of 591 million yuan and 590 million yuan respectively, with declines of 12.55% and 6.4% [2][3] - The communication equipment sector, including companies like Shenglu Communication and Fenghuo Communication, saw outflows of 589 million yuan and 580 million yuan respectively, with declines of 7.98% and 6.27% [3]

2026年1月16日早盘，特高压、电工电网板块拉升，截至11:07，中证国新央企现代能源指数上涨 0.70%，成分股中国电建上涨8.96%，中国能建上涨5.46%，平高电气上涨4.83%，国电南瑞上涨3.82%， 东方电气上涨3.80%。 数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，中证国新央企现代能源指数前十大权重股分别为长江电力、中国铝 业、国电南瑞、中国核电、云铝股份、三峡能源、中国海油、中国石油、国电电力、中国电建，前十大 权重股合计占比48.98%。 央企能源ETF(562850)紧密跟踪中证国新央企现代能源指数，涉及绿色能源、化石能源、能源输配等现 代能源产业的50只上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映央企现代能源主题上市公司证券的整体表现。 没有股票账户的投资者可以通过央企能源ETF联接(019593)一键布局高质量能源央企。 消息方面，1月15日中午，国家电网公司发布消息称，"十五五"期间，公司固定资产投资预计将达到4万 亿元，较"十四五"增长40%，以扩大有效投资带动新型电力系统产业链供应链高质量发展。能源行业专 家、电力设备及新能源行业研究人士分析认为，国网公司投资4万亿元，再加上南方电网公司投资规 ...

Group 1 - The A500 index (000510) has shown a slight increase of 0.07%, with notable gains from stocks such as Jingce Electronics (up 11.34%) and Changdian Technology (up 10.00%) [1] - The A500 ETF fund (512050) has experienced a trading volume of 78.76 billion yuan, indicating active market participation, with a turnover rate of 18.95% [1] - Over the past month, the A500 ETF fund has seen a significant growth in scale, increasing by 164.44 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 1.08 billion yuan recently [1] Group 2 - Dongguan Securities notes that the Shanghai Composite Index is forming technical support around the 4100 point, suggesting potential for new highs if this level holds [2] - The macroeconomic environment is favorable for the A-share market, with a gradual recovery in internal economic momentum and a moderate rise in inflation [2] - The A500 index reflects the performance of 500 large-cap, liquid stocks across various industries, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 20.33% of the index [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the investment in the power grid during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to significantly increase, with a projected investment of 4 trillion yuan, representing a 40% growth compared to the previous plan [1] - The National Grid's investment will lead to an average annual investment in the national grid exceeding 1 trillion yuan, with a focus on UHV projects [1][2] - The demand for power grid equipment is expected to grow due to structural shortages globally, benefiting leading companies in the sector [1] Group 2 - During the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, the average annual investment in the domestic power grid is anticipated to surpass 1 trillion yuan, with accelerated construction pace [2] - The high-voltage direct current (HVDC) sector is expected to see coordinated growth, with 4-5 HVDC lines and 3-4 AC lines projected to be approved for construction by 2026 [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Green Power Index account for 54.68% of the index, indicating a concentrated investment opportunity in leading companies [2]

格隆汇1月16日｜今日电网设备板块强势大涨，绿电ETF(562550)涨1.62%，同主题规模最大、逼近70亿 关口的电网设备ETF涨4.7%，年初以来累计上涨近17%，截至发稿，盘中获资金净申购5.74亿份，预估 净流入9.92亿元，已经连续流入获资金净申购，合计净流入超24亿元。 消息面上： 特高压权重超60%+智能电网含量55%+可控核聚变含量14%"：电网设备ETF(159326)，+4.71%，是全市 场唯一跟踪中证电网设备主题指数的ETF，权重股包括国电南瑞（国内电网智能龙头）、特变电工（全 球特高压设备核心供应商）、思源电气（电力设备研发与制造）等，该ETF最新规模69.16亿，居电网 主题ETF第一。 清洁能源外送：绿电ETF(562550)，+1.62%，核心权重股：长江电力（持仓占比10%，国内最大水电运 营商）：三峡能源（国内最大的新能源运营商）。 ②特朗普将与美国东北部各州州长一道，指示全美最大电网运营商举行一场紧急电力拍卖 银河证券研报指出，"十五五"国网公司固定资产投资预计达到4万亿元，较"十四五"投资增长40%，预 计南网"十五五"期间投资规模或达1万亿元左右，则十五五期间我国电 ...

Core Viewpoint - The State Grid Corporation of China is expected to invest 4 trillion yuan in fixed assets during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, marking a historical high and a 40% increase compared to the previous period, focusing on green energy transition and innovation integration [1][2] Group 1: Investment Overview - The total fixed asset investment is projected to exceed expectations, with a capital expenditure budget of over 720 billion yuan for 2026, significantly higher than the 2025 level [2] - The investment aims to expand effective investment and drive high-quality development of the industrial chain [2] Group 2: Main Network Logic - The construction of ultra-high voltage (UHV) infrastructure will accelerate, prioritizing main network development over distribution networks to address bottlenecks in renewable energy transmission [3] - The goal is to enhance cross-regional and cross-provincial transmission capacity by over 30%, with a significant increase in flexible interconnection capabilities [3] - New UHV lines will extensively adopt flexible direct current technology to manage the volatility of renewable energy generation [3] Group 3: Distribution Network Logic - Investment in distribution networks will shift from merely ensuring supply to focusing on smart upgrades and collaboration between main and distribution networks [4] - The aim is to meet the demand for 35 million charging facilities, requiring advanced technical capabilities for product development [4] Group 4: Competitive Landscape and Global Expansion - The industry competition is optimizing, with the State Grid aiming to control construction costs, improve operational efficiency, and enhance investment quality [5] - New policies are expected in 2026 to curb low-price competition, leading to a recovery in bidding prices and higher entry barriers for suppliers [5] - The aging North American grid and increased energy consumption are causing a supply-demand imbalance in global transformers, benefiting capable Chinese companies with overseas high-margin orders [5] - The industry logic has shifted to a dual-driven model of "domestic high-quality competition and overseas price and volume increase" [5] Group 5: Market Performance - As of January 16, 2026, the CSI All Share Utilities Index rose by 0.51%, with notable increases in stocks such as South Network Energy and Solar Energy [5] - The Public Utilities ETF closely tracks the CSI All Share Utilities Index, reflecting the overall performance of representative and investable companies in the sector [5][6] Group 6: Major Holdings - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI All Share Utilities Index accounted for 54.53% of the index, including major players like Yangtze Power and China Nuclear Power [6]

Core Insights - The article discusses the performance forecasts and reports of 17 companies that released their earnings reports as of January 16, 2025, highlighting the accuracy of earnings quick reports compared to forecasts [1] Group 1: Revenue Performance - The highest revenue among the companies reporting was achieved by CITIC Bank, with a revenue of 212.475 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.55% [1] - Following CITIC Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Yangtze Power reported revenues of 173.964 billion yuan and 85.882 billion yuan, respectively [1] - Eleven companies reported a year-on-year increase in revenue, with the highest growth recorded by Siyuan Electric, which achieved a revenue of 21.205 billion yuan, up 37.18% [1][2] - CITIC Securities and Beiding Co. also showed significant revenue growth, with increases of 28.75% and 26.04%, respectively [1][2] Group 2: Profit Performance - All companies that released earnings quick reports reported profits, with five companies achieving net profits exceeding 10 billion yuan [2] - CITIC Bank led in net profit with 70.618 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.98% [2] - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Yangtze Power followed with net profits of 50.017 billion yuan and 34.167 billion yuan, respectively [2] - Ten companies reported an increase in net profit, with the highest growth seen in Quanyuan Spring, which achieved a net profit of 0.15 billion yuan, up 147.89% [2] - Beiding Co. and Siyuan Electric also reported substantial net profit growth, with increases of 59.05% and 54.35%, respectively [2]

Macro Strategy - The report discusses the impact of RMB appreciation on exports, suggesting that RMB exchange rate is more a result of export recovery rather than a cause [8] - Historical data shows that during previous RMB appreciation periods, export growth remained stable, indicating that exchange rate fluctuations do not significantly hinder export performance [8] - The report highlights that the competitive advantage of Chinese exports is increasingly driven by technological barriers rather than price advantages, as the structure of exports continues to optimize [8] Fixed Income - The report analyzes the bond market dynamics from 2016 to 2018, noting that the primary driver of the bear market was policy tightening, which led to a significant rise in short-term interest rates [12] - Current conditions differ as long-term rates are rising due to economic recovery expectations, while short-term rates remain low, suggesting that a repeat of the 2017 bear market is unlikely [12] - Historical examples indicate that a bear market typically requires both rising short-term rates and liquidity tightening, which is not present in the current environment [12] Company Analysis Dazhu CNC (301200) - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 7.85-8.85 billion RMB in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 160.64% to 193.84% [13] - The growth is driven by accelerated expansion in AI PCB production and increased demand for high-end PCB equipment [13] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised upwards due to strong market demand, with a projected net profit of 8.4 billion RMB in 2025 [13] Changjiang Power (600900) - The company reported a net profit of 341.67 billion RMB for 2025, a 5.14% increase year-on-year, driven by stable power generation growth [15] - The report indicates that the company’s revenue is supported by increased electricity sales from its hydropower stations [15] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 341.67 billion RMB for 2025, reflecting a slight downward revision due to expected declines in electricity prices [15] CITIC Securities (600030) - The company achieved a net profit of 300.5 billion RMB in 2025, marking a 38% increase year-on-year, supported by a vibrant market trading environment [16] - The report highlights the company's strong position in the equity underwriting market, with significant growth in IPO and refinancing activities [16] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards, with expected net profits of 301 billion RMB in 2025 [16]

2025年共接待全国23个省区市劳模职工140余批次2.5万人次——这组亮眼的数据，正是湖北省十堰市总 工会"引客入堰"工作成效的生动注脚。1月12日，记者获悉，2025年，十堰市总通过精心打造劳模职工 疗休养品牌、承办全国性工会文化阅读活动等，架起连接全国职工的"连心桥"，既让劳动者在山水人文 间疗愈身心，更以"工"为媒激活城市文旅消费新动能。 近年来，十堰市总还举办中国技协城市主产业职业技能联赛暨技术工人、工匠大会，吸引12省16市20多 支代表队同台竞技；举办2025北京市教育科技人才十堰行活动，来自21所高校的27名教育科技人才，深 入十堰重点企业、文化场馆、高校产教基地等，体验十堰产业魅力与文化底蕴。 （来源：工人日报） 如今，越来越多来自全国各地的劳模职工循着武当道乐、丹江碧水而来，在疗休养中感受十堰温度，在 技术文化交流中传播十堰故事，共同绘就"山水车城、宜居十堰"的美好画卷。 为吸引全国劳模职工来十堰疗休养，十堰市总精心打造"问道武当+生态康养"特色线路，将武当道文化 的身心调和与南水北调核心水源地的生态魅力深度融合，构建起集健康疗养、文化体验、红色教育于一 体的服务体系。在此推动下，劳模职工 ...