本报告导读： 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.04 2025 字节冬季 FORCE 大会展望 [Table_Industry] 计算机 聚焦 Agentic Al 重塑产业 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 杨林(分析师) | 021-23183969 | yanglin2@gtht.com | S0880525040027 | | 吕浦源(分析师) | 021-23183822 | lvpuyuan@gtht.com | S0880525050002 | | 钟明翰(研究助理) | 021-38031383 | zhongminghan@gtht.com | S0880124070047 | 2025 火山引擎冬季 FORCE 原动力大会定档 12 月 18-19 日，本报告结合 2025 春季 FORCE 大会的内容和冬季大会官方预告，梳理本次大会重点跟踪内容。 投资要点： [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 计算机《DeepSeek-V ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resilience of the AI sector, particularly in the context of the recent performance of the ChiNext AI ETF and the growth prospects for companies involved in AI and related technologies [1][4] - New Yi Sheng, a leading optical module CPO, has seen a significant increase in stock price, indicating strong market interest and performance in the optical module sector [1] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates a substantial upward revision in Google's TPU production forecasts, suggesting a robust demand for AI-related hardware, which could benefit optical module suppliers [3] Group 2 - The AI industry is experiencing a clear upward trend, with short-term adjustments providing good opportunities for investment, particularly in the computing power and AI application sectors [4] - The optical module industry is expected to see a capacity release in Q1 2026, driven by the high demand in the computing power supply chain, which is likely to enhance the performance of leading optical module manufacturers [3] - The first ChiNext AI ETF is highlighted as a key investment vehicle, with a significant portion of its holdings focused on optical module leaders, reflecting the growing importance of this sector in the AI landscape [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that A-shares are expected to experience improvements in fundamental expectations, macro liquidity, policy and industry themes, and chip pressure digestion in December, potentially leading to an early start of the spring rally [1][2] - The spring rally is a significant calendar effect in A-shares, characterized by improvements in fundamental expectations, macro liquidity, and policy/industry themes [2][3] - The observation window for the first two points is from early to mid-December, while the third point is around mid-December [3] Group 2 - In terms of structural performance, small-cap stocks have a higher win rate (75% since 2010), with leading sectors typically being cyclical or growth-oriented, both of which have win rates exceeding 80% since 2010 [3] - The cyclical sector is driven by price increase expectations, while the growth sector is driven by industry themes, with a focus on aviation equipment, AI-related energy storage, and power grid equipment for the former, and chemicals and energy metals for the latter [3] Group 3 - ByteDance has launched the "Doubao Phone Assistant," aiming to integrate AI capabilities at the OS level, indicating a shift from being a standalone app to a more integrated approach [4] - The product is still in the early exploration phase, but the partnership with Nubia for high-frequency iterations shows ByteDance's commitment to capturing the AI native entry point in mobile [4][5] - ByteDance's strategy involves open collaboration to provide its AI models as the "brain" for various hardware brands, avoiding supply chain risks and enabling rapid penetration into the Android ecosystem [4] Group 4 - The next key focus for ByteDance is the "Force Byte Original Power Conference" on December 18-19, where new members of its ecosystem may be announced, potentially involving upgrades to multimodal model capabilities or new hardware partnerships [5] - The integration of AI across devices, such as through the Ola Friend AI earphones, creates a closed-loop experience for users, enhancing the functionality of the phone assistant [5] Group 5 - Newray Energy (300593) is positioned to leverage its existing products and technologies in AIDC power systems, with potential breakthroughs in overseas customer bases [7] - The rapid development of AI technology is driving a significant upgrade in data center power supply systems, presenting opportunities for Chinese power electronics companies to enter overseas supply chains [7] - The company has established a comprehensive power supply solution from AC supply to terminal chip levels, and has a strong foundation in serving major international clients like Samsung and Nokia [7]

Market Overview - The IT services sector experienced a decline of 1.15% on December 2, with Pingao Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3897.71, down 0.42%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13056.7, down 0.68% [1] Top Gainers in IT Services - Haixia Innovation (300300) saw a significant increase of 13.53%, closing at 18.46 with a trading volume of 2.1262 million shares and a transaction value of 3.774 billion [1] - Rongmu Software (002474) rose by 10.02%, closing at 12.30 with a trading volume of 504,000 shares and a transaction value of 616 million [1] - Other notable gainers included Luqiao Information (920748) up 5.78%, Huichan Co. (688500) up 5.33%, and Sichuang Medical (300078) up 5.27% [1] Top Losers in IT Services - Pingao Co. (688227) experienced the largest decline of 9.62%, closing at 73.01 with a trading volume of 113,100 shares and a transaction value of 849 million [2] - Nanjing Digital (301638) fell by 4.64%, closing at 22.63 with a trading volume of 609,900 shares and a transaction value of 1.395 billion [2] - Other significant losers included Hand Information (300170) down 4.09% and Zhuoyi Information (688258) down 3.88% [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The IT services sector saw a net outflow of 2.091 billion from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 1.321 billion [2] - Notable net inflows from retail investors were observed in Rongmu Software (002474) with 306 million and Huichan Co. (300078) with 93.017 million [3] - Conversely, significant net outflows were recorded for Nanjing Digital (301638) and Hand Information (300170) [3]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Add" rating for the industry [8] Core Insights - The upcoming ByteDance Force Conference on December 18 is expected to showcase advancements in cloud infrastructure, large models, and application deployment, potentially leading a new wave of AI enthusiasm [1] - The Doubao large model has seen significant growth, with daily token usage exceeding 30 trillion by September, indicating rapid AI deployment [2] - The Doubao mobile assistant, set to launch on December 1, will enhance user efficiency by automating complex tasks on mobile devices [3] - The Huoshan Cloud business is projected to generate 10 billion yuan in revenue in 2024 and over 20 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate exceeding 100% [4] - The industry is witnessing rapid advancements in AI models and cost reductions in computing power, which will facilitate broader application deployment and create a commercial AI ecosystem [5] Summary by Sections Doubao Large Model - The Doubao model's daily token usage has increased by over 137 times since its last update, showcasing its growing adoption [2] - The upcoming conference is expected to introduce various innovations in the model's capabilities, including multi-modal understanding and enhanced reasoning abilities [2] Doubao Mobile Assistant - The mobile assistant will have system-level access and the ability to perform tasks like ordering food through automation, significantly improving daily efficiency [3] - The assistant is priced at 3,499 yuan and is currently available in collaboration with ZTE [3] Huoshan Cloud Business - Huoshan Engine aims for substantial revenue growth, targeting 100 billion yuan in 2024 and over 200 billion yuan in 2025, with a long-term goal of reaching 1 trillion yuan [4] - Computing power is identified as a core resource for supporting model training and application execution [4] Agent Tools and Industry Solutions - The conference will also focus on upgrading agent development tools and enhancing AI deployment capabilities across various industries [4] - The industry is expected to see stronger solution implementation across sectors such as finance, education, and gaming [4] Related Companies - Key companies in the cloud segment include Cambrian, Digital China, and Dongyangguang, while in the edge segment, ZTE and others are highlighted [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the computer sector [4] Core Insights - The industrial software sector is experiencing robust growth driven by policy support and technological advancements, with a projected market size of CNY 354.14 billion in 2024, reflecting an 11.2% year-on-year increase [2][21] - The integration of AI with industrial software is accelerating, enhancing capabilities in design, production control, and operational management, which is crucial for achieving the "Made in China 2035" goals [3][49] - The market structure shows a significant presence of foreign companies in high-end segments, while domestic firms are gaining ground in production control and management software due to localized services and cost advantages [25][38] Summary by Sections Policy Support - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of intelligent manufacturing, aiming for over 70% digital penetration in large manufacturing enterprises by 2025 [2][18] - Recent policies indicate a sustained commitment to upgrading industrial software and operating systems as core technologies for high-quality development [19][20] Industrial Software Market Growth - The industrial software market is projected to reach CNY 765 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.1% [2][21] - The market is characterized by a high share of foreign companies in high-end sectors, while domestic firms are making strides in embedded software and management solutions [25][26] AI Integration - AI is transforming industrial software, enabling generative design in CAD and enhancing simulation capabilities in CAE, which improves efficiency and reduces costs [41][42] - The combination of AI with production control systems like DCS and PLC is creating closed-loop intelligent systems that optimize decision-making and enhance production efficiency [44][47] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that industrial software will be a key focus area in the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan," with policies likely to support breakthroughs in critical areas of design and production control [20][21] - The integration of physical AI is expected to drive advancements in various industries, enhancing simulation and predictive capabilities [66][69]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a collective decline in the three major indices, with AI mobile concept stocks remaining active while the software development sector showed relative weakness [1] - The 2025 China (Guangdong) Industrial Software High-Quality Development Conference successfully held a talent cultivation summit in Guangzhou, focusing on the integration of industrial software talent training and industry [1] - The software industry plays a crucial role in the AI industry chain, primarily positioned in the midstream technology layer and downstream application layer, providing essential technical support and facilitating the implementation of AI applications [1] Group 2 - Industrial software is essentially a digital expression of industrial knowledge and experience, representing modern industrial levels and the integration of advanced technologies across multiple disciplines [2] - The development cycle of industrial software is long, and the investment costs are high, characterized by significant technological barriers and high added value [2] - Industrial software can be categorized into research and design, production manufacturing, and information management, with opportunities for growth in research and design software and a weak recovery in production control and information management software [2]

Group 1 - The Kimi concept sector experienced a decline of 1.78% [1] - Han's Information fell by 3.69% [1] - Guotou Intelligent decreased by 3.49% [1] - Foxit Software dropped by 2.77% [1] - Deepin Technology, Chinese Online, and Zhangyue Technology all fell over 2% [1]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the Chinese stock market is entering a favorable zone, with a significant opportunity for investment in the upcoming months due to a convergence of policy, liquidity, and fundamentals [12][14][13] - The report identifies key sectors to focus on, including technology, financial services, and consumer goods, suggesting a strategic shift towards more aggressive investment positions [14][12] - The anticipated growth in the Chinese capital market is supported by a reduction in previous valuation discounts, with expectations of double-digit profit growth in the non-financial sector by 2026 [13][12] Group 2 - In the technology sector, companies like Tencent and Alibaba are highlighted for their robust revenue and profit growth, driven by advancements in AI and cloud services [20][24] - The electronics industry is seeing accelerated demand for domestic AI solutions, with companies like Haiguang Information benefiting from this trend [32][8] - The communication sector is expected to thrive due to increased capital expenditure on AI infrastructure, with significant growth anticipated in light communication technologies [39][40] Group 3 - The machinery sector is experiencing growth, with companies like Changying Precision and Hengli Hydraulic showing improved profitability and market positioning [6][8] - The automotive industry, particularly Weichai Power, is noted for steady revenue and performance improvements, indicating a positive outlook [6][8] - The healthcare sector, with a focus on innovative pharmaceuticals, is recommended for investment, particularly in companies like Ying'en Bio [6][8] Group 4 - The consumer sector is poised for recovery after a three-year adjustment period, with low valuations and potential policy support creating structural opportunities [14][12] - Companies in the retail and food & beverage sectors, such as Shoulu Hotel and Yanjing Beer, are highlighted for their improving performance metrics [6][8] - The financial sector, particularly non-bank financial institutions like Huatai Securities and China Ping An, is expected to benefit from market reforms and improved profitability [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The IT service sector experienced a rise of 0.86% on December 1, with notable gains from companies like Xingtu Measurement and Control, which led the sector's performance [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3914.01, up by 0.65% [1]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13146.72, up by 1.25% [1]. - The IT service sector stocks showed varied performance, with significant gainers including: - Xingtu Measurement and Control (up 8.22% to 78.77) [1]. - Kaipu Cloud (up 6.86% to 172.48) [1]. - Zhuoyi Information (up 6.10% to 71.88) [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance Summary - The following companies experienced notable increases in stock prices: - Aerospace Hongtu (up 5.77% to 28.96) with a trading volume of 389,000 shares and a transaction value of 1.136 billion [1]. - Yacon Co., Ltd. (up 5.58% to 55.66) with a trading volume of 44,500 shares and a transaction value of 247 million [1]. - Jingsong Intelligent (up 4.88% to 28.36) with a trading volume of 61,400 shares and a transaction value of 175 million [1]. Group 3: Capital Flow Analysis - The IT service sector saw a net outflow of 591 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 674 million [2]. - The capital flow for specific stocks included: - Han De Information with a net inflow of 457 million from institutional investors [3]. - Kaipu Cloud with a net inflow of 40.88 million from institutional investors [3]. - Aerospace Hongtu with a net inflow of 1.08 billion from institutional investors [3].