Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Spring Festival travel season has begun, leading to increased demand in the aviation sector, with airlines showing improved performance and public funds benefiting from early investments [1][2]. Group 1: Spring Festival Travel Demand - The Spring Festival travel season started on February 2, 2026, with strong demand for air travel, expected to reach 95 million passengers during the period, with a daily average of 19,400 flights, a 5% year-on-year increase [2][6]. - On the first day of the Spring Festival, the Civil Aviation Administration of China reported 19,080 flights and 2.19 million passengers, marking a 3.8% increase compared to the same day in 2025 [2][6]. Group 2: Airline Performance Improvement - Major airlines are expected to report significant improvements in their financial performance, with China Eastern Airlines projecting a profit of 200 to 300 million yuan for 2025, and Southern Airlines also expected to turn a profit [3][6]. - China Eastern Airlines anticipates a 10.82% increase in total transport turnover and a 6.68% increase in passenger transport volume for 2025 [3]. Group 3: Fund Performance and Investment Strategy - Several public funds that invested in the aviation sector in Q4 2025 have seen substantial returns, with some funds reporting net value growth rates exceeding 8% since the beginning of the year [1][4]. - Fund managers have strategically increased their holdings in key airlines, with notable increases in shares of China Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines [4][5]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook for the Aviation Sector - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from sustained demand recovery, supply-side optimization, and steady improvement in corporate profitability, supporting valuation recovery [6]. - The investment value of the aviation sector is highlighted by three factors: steady recovery in domestic travel demand, clear performance turning points for airlines, and reasonable historical valuation levels [6].

《中国民航报》、中国民航网 记者何丹 通讯员陈芏霖 报道：2月8日，昆明南站上演了一场与死神赛跑 的紧急救援。华夏云翼乘务教员、客舱训练部总监李佩瑾凭借10年教龄和13年飞行经验，成功挽救了一 名心脏骤停的年轻旅客生命。 当日14时40分左右，李佩瑾正准备接女儿从昆明南站返回重庆。刚到车站，广播就传来15B检票口有旅 客重病急需医疗救助的紧急呼叫。正在12B检票口的李佩瑾立即带着女儿赶往15B检票口。 到达现场后，她看到一对老夫妻正扶着突然倒下的年轻儿子，周围虽有工作人员但缺乏专业救援。李佩 瑾冲上前检查，发现小伙子嘴唇紫黑、手指抽搐僵硬变形，已完全失去意识，心脏停止跳动。 面对危急情况，李佩瑾立即展开心肺复苏（CPR）操作。小伙子心脏停了，胸廓特别难按，但她坚持进 行专业按压。在几个循环的CPR后，奇迹出现——小伙子突然发出疼痛的呻吟，恢复了意识。 李佩瑾继续施救并不断与小伙子交流，确认其反应能力。当AED设备和现场医生到达后，她配合医生 检查，发现小伙子眼睛对光反应恢复，手指僵硬程度减轻，更重要的是，她用耳朵贴在胸廓上听到了心 跳恢复，颈动脉也重新搏动。 120到达后，李佩瑾协助将小伙子抬上担架，细心为其 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the aviation sector, highlighting opportunities in the industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The Spring Festival travel rush has begun, with air passenger volume averaging 2.313 million per day, up 5.5% year-on-year, while railway passenger volume averaged 11.792 million, down 0.7% [1][10]. - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape in instant retail, particularly with the launch of the "30 Billion Free Order" campaign by Qianwen, which saw over 10 million orders in just 9 hours [2][35]. - The report identifies key players in the aviation sector, including China National Airlines, Southern Airlines, and Eastern Airlines, as well as low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from high price elasticity and operational efficiency [2][34]. Industry Data Tracking - Air cargo: The outbound air cargo price index at Pudong Airport increased by 5.3% week-on-week and 8.9% year-on-year as of February 2 [7][44]. - Shipping: VLCC freight rates increased by 2%, while the BDI decreased by 10% and SCFI decreased by 4% [7][48]. - The report highlights the expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3% for aircraft imports over the next three years, indicating a supply constraint in the aviation sector [31][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on "performance elasticity" and "dividend value" as key investment themes for the transportation sector in 2026 [7][31]. - It recommends leading companies in express logistics, such as Zhongtong and Yuantong, as well as the instant retail leader Shunfeng Tongcheng, which is expected to benefit from rapid growth and low valuation [7][31]. - The report also highlights the importance of dividend-paying assets, recommending Sichuan Chengyu and China Merchants Port for their stable performance and potential for dividend increases [7][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the transportation industry [6] Core Views - The transportation sector is expected to benefit from the high demand during the Spring Festival travel season, with a notable increase in passenger volume and airline ticket prices [3][11] - The logistics sector shows promising growth, particularly for companies like ZTO Express, which has reported an increase in market share and profitability [4][17] - The shipping market is experiencing high VLCC rates due to tight capacity and geopolitical premiums, while dry bulk rates have seen a decline [2][14] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Market Review - On February 2, 2026, the Spring Festival travel season commenced, with a total of 184.986 million people traveling, an increase of 11.3% compared to the same period in 2025. The civil aviation passenger volume reached 2.234 million, up 7.4% year-on-year [3][11] - The transportation sector index rose by 1.90% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.17 percentage points [21] - The top-performing segments included air transportation, express delivery, and logistics, with respective increases of 8.15%, 3.76%, and 1.24% [21] Air Travel - The average ticket price for civil aviation during the Spring Festival was 840 yuan, a 3.0% increase from 2025, with an average seat occupancy rate of 83.3%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [3][11] - The report anticipates continued growth in the aviation sector driven by demand recovery and supportive policies, with a focus on business travel and international flight recovery [12] Shipping and Ports - The VLCC market is experiencing high rates, with the Middle East route commanding $119,447 per day and the West Africa route at $130,293 per day as of February 6 [2][13] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell to 1,923 points, indicating a decrease in dry bulk shipping rates [14] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the shipping market dynamics, particularly in relation to geopolitical factors and supply chain developments [15] Logistics - ZTO Express reported a 9.3% year-on-year increase in parcel volume for Q4 2025, with a slight increase in single-ticket revenue and gross profit [4][17] - The company is issuing $1.5 billion in convertible bonds to finance share buybacks, aiming to enhance shareholder returns [18] - The logistics sector is expected to see growth driven by overseas e-commerce and competitive dynamics among leading express companies [19][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the aviation sector, highlighting potential opportunities in the industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The Spring Festival travel rush has begun, with air passenger volume averaging 2.313 million per day, up 5.5% year-on-year, while railway passenger volume averaged 11.792 million, down 0.7% year-on-year [1][10]. - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape in instant retail, particularly with the launch of the "30 Billion Free Order" campaign by Qianwen, which saw over 10 million orders in just 9 hours [2][35]. - The report identifies key players in the aviation sector, including China National Airlines, Southern Airlines, and Eastern Airlines, as well as low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from high price elasticity and operational efficiency [2][34]. Industry Data Tracking - Air freight rates at Pudong Airport increased by 5.3% week-on-week and 8.9% year-on-year as of February 2 [7][44]. - The VLCC freight rate rose by 2% week-on-week, while the BDI decreased by 10% [7][48]. - The report highlights the growth potential in the express logistics sector, particularly for leading companies like Zhongtong and Yuantong, as well as the promising outlook for instant retail leader SF Express [7][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on "performance elasticity" and "dividend value" as key investment themes for the transportation sector in 2026 [7][31]. - It recommends continued investment in the aviation sector due to expected low growth in aircraft supply and a projected 5% increase in passenger numbers [2][31]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of dividend assets, recommending companies like Sichuan Chengyu and China Merchants Port for their stable performance and potential for increased dividends [7][31].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 08 年 月 日 交通运输 春运拉开帷幕，航空迎周期景气拐点 周观点：2 月 2 日，2026 年春运正式拉开帷幕，首日全社会跨区域人员流动量 18498.6 万人次，比 2025 年同期增长 11.3%，其中民航客运量 223.4 万人次，比 2025 年同期增长 7.4%；根据航班管家，截至 2 月 6 日，2026 年春运民航累计平 均票价 840 元、同比 2025 年同期增长 3.0%，累计客座率 83.3%、同比 2025 年 同期增长 1.2 个百分点。在春运高景气预期下，继续看好" 扩内需"及" 反内卷" 下航空板块中长期景气度。 行情回顾：本周（2026.2.2-2026.2.6）交通运输板块行业指数上涨 1.90%，跑赢 上证指数 3.17 个百分点（上证指数下跌 1.27%）。从申万交通运输行业三级分类 看，涨幅前三名的板块分别为航空运输、快递、物流，涨幅分别为 8.15%、3.76%、 1.24%；跌幅前三名的板块分别为公路货运、航运、港口，跌幅分别为-0.85%、- 0.44%、-0.40%。 航运港口：VLCC ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry [2] Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from the Spring Festival travel peak, leading to a positive outlook for airline stocks. The report highlights a significant increase in flight operations and passenger volumes during this period, indicating a recovery in demand [4][6] - The report emphasizes the potential for oil transportation to rise, driven by geopolitical factors and structural demand growth, suggesting a favorable investment environment in the shipping sector [6][7] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report identifies key investment opportunities in the aviation sector, particularly focusing on major airlines and low-cost carriers that are expected to benefit from rising ticket prices and improved operational performance [4][6] - It also highlights the logistics and express delivery sectors, noting the positive earnings forecast for companies like SF Express, which is capitalizing on the growth of instant delivery services [6] Aviation Data Tracking - Daily flight operations from February 2 to February 6 showed significant increases for major airlines, with Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines leading the growth [4] - The average aircraft utilization rates also improved, indicating a recovery in operational efficiency across the sector [4] Shipping Data Tracking - The report tracks various shipping indices, noting a mixed performance in container shipping but a positive trend in oil transportation indices, suggesting a potential upturn in the oil shipping market [6][7] - The report recommends focusing on companies in the oil shipping sector due to limited supply and structural demand growth [6][7] Logistics Data Tracking - The report provides data on logistics performance, indicating a substantial increase in express delivery volumes, which is expected to continue benefiting from the growth in e-commerce and instant delivery services [6] - It highlights the importance of addressing industry challenges such as competition and regulatory changes to maintain profitability [6] Company Performance Tracking - The report includes performance metrics for key companies in the aviation and logistics sectors, showcasing their earnings forecasts and operational improvements [4][6] - It emphasizes the strategic positioning of companies like Spring Airlines and China Eastern Airlines, which are expected to leverage their market positions for growth [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Huaxia Airlines (002928) [1] Core Insights - Huaxia Airlines is positioned as a leader in the regional aviation market, focusing on the "downstream market" that serves over 1 billion people, indicating significant growth potential [6][7] - The company has a unique business model that combines local government procurement with central subsidies for regional airlines, enhancing its competitive edge [6][8] - The report highlights the increasing government subsidies for regional airlines, which have significantly boosted the company's other income [8][9] Financial Performance - Total revenue projections for Huaxia Airlines are as follows: - 2024: 6,696 million - 2025: 7,548 million - 2026: 8,394 million - 2027: 9,439 million - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are projected at 30.0% for 2024, 12.7% for 2025, 11.2% for 2026, and 12.4% for 2027 [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be: - 2024: 268 million - 2025: 591 million - 2026: 911 million - 2027: 1,214 million - The net profit growth rates are projected at 127.8% for 2024, 120.6% for 2025, 54.2% for 2026, and 33.3% for 2027 [2] Market Analysis - The regional aviation market is characterized by a significant disparity in airport passenger throughput, with a "80/20" distribution where a small number of airports handle the majority of traffic [6][16] - The report emphasizes the potential for regional aviation to grow 2-5 times in the long term, driven by increasing demand and government support [6][7][37] Competitive Position - Huaxia Airlines is the only independent airline in China that has consistently focused on regional aviation since its establishment in 2006, covering nearly half of the domestic regional flight points [6][9] - The company has a fleet of 80 aircraft, with over 60% being regional models, showcasing its commitment to this market segment [25][27] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that Huaxia Airlines has substantial growth potential in the regional market, with a target price of 17.1 yuan, representing a 47% upside from the current price of 11.60 yuan [2][9]

Core Viewpoint - The aviation sector is showing resilience and potential for growth amidst fluctuations in other investment areas, with airlines like China Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines experiencing significant stock price increases and approaching three-year highs in their index [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The aviation index has seen a three-day consecutive rise, indicating a strong performance in the sector [1]. - Recent earnings forecasts from several companies suggest a positive outlook, with historical high passenger load factors and rising ticket prices providing a solid foundation for growth [2][4]. Group 2: Fund Manager Insights - Fund managers are optimistic about the aviation sector, citing a favorable supply-demand balance and limited growth in supply due to slow aircraft deliveries from Airbus and Boeing [4]. - The increase in air ticket prices globally, which have risen by 25% compared to 2019, is expected to support profitability, especially as domestic prices remain relatively low due to a decrease in business travel [4][5]. Group 3: Performance of Funds - Several actively managed funds have increased their holdings in aviation stocks, leading to improved performance, such as the fund managed by Yang Jinjing, which saw a 9.43% increase by February 4 [3]. - The shift in fund strategies towards travel and aviation stocks reflects a broader trend of moving away from saturated consumer goods towards service consumption as a growth driver [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The aviation industry is anticipated to experience a tightening supply over the next 3-5 years due to previous losses leading to fewer new aircraft orders [5]. - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to set records for passenger volume, indicating a strong recovery in travel demand [6]. - By 2026, improvements in supply-demand dynamics and a potential recovery in business travel are projected to lead to a positive shift in pricing and profitability for the industry [6][7].

证券代码：002928 证券简称：华夏航空 公告编号：2026-008 华夏航空股份有限公司 关于为全资子公司提供担保的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、担保额度审批情况概述 华夏航空股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）分别于 2025 年 04 月 24 日召开 第三届董事会第十七次会议、第三届监事会第十六次会议，于 2025 年 05 月 16 日召开 2024 年年度股东大会，审议通过《关于为全资子公司提供担保的议案》， 同意公司为全资子公司向银行或其他金融机构申请授信不超过人民币 17 亿元或 等值外币提供担保，主要用于子公司引进飞机、飞机预付款、项目建设、购买航 材、设备采购、日常运营等事项；其中，对全资子公司华夏飞机维修工程有限公 司（以下简称"华夏维修"）担保额度为 5 亿元。上述担保额度不含此前已提供 且仍在担保期限内的担保余额（此前已提供且仍在担保期限内的担保余额继续有 效），自 2024 年年度股东大会审议通过之日起至 2025 年年度股东会召开日期间 该担保额度可循环使用。具体内容详见公司于 2025 年 04 月 ...