消息面上，据天天化工网信息，万华化学TDI分销渠道3月上旬一口价15700元/吨，环比上调1200元/ 吨，限量供应，沧州大化近期出口FOB价格报1950美元/吨，市场供应偏紧以及生产成本上升支撑，企 业出口报价持续坚挺。根据百川盈孚数据，今日TDI价格14881元/吨（毛利润3721元/吨），相比2025年 10月底13325元/吨，以及2025年4月最低价10281元/吨均有明显上涨。 机构指出，万华化学具备TDI产能147万吨/年，沧州大化15万吨/年，均具备明显价格弹性。万华拥有 380万吨/年MDI产能，巴斯夫2026.2.25宣布上调东盟地区MDI价格200美元/吨，科思创2026.2.19宣布北 美MDI产品上调220美元/吨，亨斯迈2026.2.17宣布对美国MDI产品涨价260美元/吨，万华MDI业务价格 弹性空间更大，今年中国MDI出口需求恢复以及海外美国降息需求拉动，以及在海外同行低迷的盈利压 力下，行业的挺价期望。 数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，中证细分化工产业主题指数(000813)前十大权重股分别为万华化学、 盐湖股份、藏格矿业、天赐材料、华鲁恒升、恒力石化、巨化股份、宝丰能 ...

预计2026年津巴布韦锂矿产量为23.5万吨，约占2026年全球锂资源产量的12%。 预计2026年津巴布韦锂矿产量为23.5万吨，约占2026年全球锂资源产量的12%。 下游需求即将进入旺季，锂盐库存仍较低，在锂矿出口禁令解除之前，碳酸锂短期供应紧缺加剧，锂价有望大幅 上涨至20-25w的区间。 （目前16.6万） 在津巴布韦有矿的企业，有【中矿资源、盛新锂能、雅化集团】，他们相对来说是利空的 结论，不受出口禁令影响的华友钴业（锂钴镍三重涨价）、大中矿业（资源在国内，即将投产）、盐湖股份（国 内锂资源增速最快）。 若中矿资源、盛新锂能、雅化集团短时下挫过快，也可以考虑关注，因为津巴布韦禁止出口也是为了推高锂矿价 格，而锂矿价格上涨，也利好在津巴布韦有矿的企业。 下游需求即将进入旺季，锂盐库存仍较低，在锂矿出口禁令解除之前，碳酸锂短期供应紧缺加剧，锂价有望大幅 上涨至20-25w的区间。 （目前16.6万） 在津巴布韦有矿的企业，有【中矿资源、盛新锂能、雅化集团】，他们相对来说是利空的 结论，不受出口禁令影响的华友钴业（锂钴镍三重涨价）、大中矿业（资源在国内，即将投 ...

截至2026年2月27日 09:35，中证石化产业指数(H11057)下跌0.10%。成分股方面涨跌互现，恒逸石化领 涨1.84%，和邦生物上涨1.38%，扬农化工上涨1.34%；蓝晓科技领跌2.89%，彤程新材下跌2.52%，圣泉 集团下跌2.50%。化工行业ETF易方达(516570)下跌0.17%，最新报价1.16元。拉长时间看，截至2026年2 月26日，化工行业ETF易方达近2周累计上涨2.56%。（以上所列股票仅为指数成份股，无特定推荐之 意） 从资金净流入方面来看，化工行业ETF易方达近4天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得3069.65万元净 流入，合计"吸金"7857.82万元，日均净流入达1964.46万元。（数据来源：Wind） 截至2月26日，化工行业ETF易方达近2年净值上涨61.95%。从收益能力看，截至2026年2月26日，化工 行业ETF易方达自成立以来，最高单月回报为15.74%，最长连涨月数为9个月，最长连涨涨幅为 61.01%，上涨月份平均收益率为5.43%。截至2026年2月26日，化工行业ETF易方达近1年超越基准年化 收益为2.99%，排名可比基金1/2。 回撤方面， ...

Group 1: Amer Sports Performance - Amer Sports reported a 27% revenue growth for the fiscal year 2025, reaching $6.566 billion, with an adjusted net profit of $545 million, up from $236 million in 2024 [7][8] - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a revenue increase of 28% to $2.101 billion, with an adjusted net profit of $176 million, compared to $90 million in Q4 2024 [8] - The management guidance for 2026 indicates a revenue growth of 16-18% at constant exchange rates, with an operating profit margin of 13.1-13.3% [8] Group 2: Silver Economy and Sports Industry - The aging population in China is creating significant opportunities in the silver economy, particularly in the sports industry and products catering to older adults [9][10] - The sports apparel market is projected to reach ¥437.7 billion by 2025, with outdoor trail running shoes expected to grow over 150% [9] - The demand for professional running shoes priced above ¥200 is anticipated to maintain double-digit growth, driven by increased health awareness among the elderly [9] Group 3: Lithium Industry Insights - The lithium market is experiencing tightening supply and low inventory levels, with global lithium demand expected to reach approximately 200,000 tons LCE in 2026 [12][14] - Domestic lithium supply is not yet at large-scale production, with potential disruptions in lithium mica supply and new mining regulations coming into effect in July 2025 [13] - The demand for lithium is being driven by both power and energy storage batteries, with a projected 50% year-on-year growth in energy storage battery shipments [13][14] Group 4: Chemical Industry Policy - Recent tax incentives for marine oil and gas exploration aim to enhance domestic energy security by reducing import costs for essential equipment [15][16] - The policy includes exemptions from import duties for equipment used in oil and gas exploration and a VAT rebate for qualifying imported natural gas [15][16] - These measures are expected to improve project internal rates of return and promote the development of deep-sea oil and gas fields [16] Group 5: Matrix Holdings - Matrix Holdings is positioned as a leading high-end interior design company, with a focus on space design and soft decoration [19] - The company anticipates a significant recovery in revenue and profit starting in 2025, with projected net profit growth of 72%-137% [19][20] - The introduction of an "AI+Design" platform is expected to enhance design efficiency and improve profit margins [20] Group 6: Anfu Technology - Anfu Technology, a leader in the small battery sector, is transitioning towards high-tech fields, including AI and semiconductor manufacturing [21][22] - The company controls 46% of Nanfu Battery, which has shown consistent revenue growth, with plans to acquire the remaining shares [22] - Strategic investments in next-generation optical chips are expected to open new growth avenues for the company [23]

Group 1: Amer Sports Performance - Amer Sports reported a 27% year-on-year revenue growth for FY2025, reaching $6.566 billion, with an adjusted net profit of $545 million, up from $236 million in 2024 [7][8] - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a revenue increase of 28% year-on-year to $2.101 billion, with an adjusted net profit of $176 million, compared to $90 million in Q4 2024 [8] - The management guidance for 2026 indicates a revenue growth of 16-18% at constant exchange rates, with an operating profit margin of 13.1-13.3% [8] Group 2: Silver Economy and Sports Industry - The aging population in China is creating significant opportunities in the silver economy, particularly in the sports industry and products catering to older adults [9][10] - The sports apparel market is projected to reach ¥437.7 billion by 2025, with outdoor trail running shoes expected to grow over 150% [9] - The demand for professional running shoes priced above ¥200 is anticipated to maintain double-digit growth, driven by increased health awareness among the elderly [9] Group 3: Lithium Industry Insights - The lithium market is experiencing tightening supply and low inventory levels, with global lithium demand expected to reach approximately 200,000 tons LCE in 2026 [12][14] - Domestic lithium supply is not yet at large-scale production levels, and there are potential disruptions in supply due to regulatory changes and production delays [13] - The anticipated demand from both power and energy storage batteries is expected to drive lithium prices upward, with projections suggesting prices may exceed ¥200,000 per ton in the near term [14] Group 4: Chemical Industry Policy Impact - Recent tax incentives for marine oil and gas exploration are aimed at reducing import costs for essential equipment, thereby enhancing domestic oil and gas supply capabilities [15][16] - The policy is expected to improve the internal rate of return for marine exploration projects and support the development of deep-sea oil fields [16] Group 5: Matrix Holdings Performance - Matrix Holdings is positioned as a leading high-end interior design company, with a significant recovery in profitability expected as the real estate market stabilizes [19][20] - The company anticipates a substantial increase in net profit for 2025, projected to be between ¥58 million and ¥80 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 72%-137% [19] - The introduction of an "AI + Design" platform is expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability in the design process [20] Group 6: Anfu Technology's Strategic Shift - Anfu Technology has transitioned from retail to becoming a leader in the small battery sector through its acquisition of Nanfu Battery, which has shown consistent revenue growth [21][22] - The company plans to acquire the remaining shares of Nanfu Battery to enhance profitability further [22] - Anfu is also investing in high-tech sectors, including AI and semiconductor manufacturing, to diversify its business model [21][22]

记者丨董鹏 编辑丨郑世凤 张明艳 金珊 本就处于紧平衡的锂盐市场，供给端再添重要变量。 2026年2月25日，津巴布韦矿业部发布锂矿出口禁令，涵盖在途货物，且无明确恢复时间表。 津巴布韦，是过去几年全球锂精矿增长最迅速的国家之一，此前曾吸引多家中资锂业公司参与当地资源开发。 相关数据显示，2025年，中国进口锂精矿总量约为775.1万吨，其中从津巴布韦进口量达120.4万吨，占总进口量的15.5%左右，是仅次于澳大利亚的第二大 进口来源国。 因为有刚果（金）暂停出口引发2025年钴价上涨的案例在先，此次津巴布韦限制锂精矿出口也加重了市场各方对锂产品涨价的预期。 不过，节后碳酸锂期、现价格已经连续大涨，逼近今年1月下旬的前期高点，加之该品种多空博弈激烈，26日多个期货合约高开低走，Wind锂矿指数涨幅也 大幅收窄至1.19%。 "价值留存"战略 津巴布韦加强自身锂资源管控，此前已有征兆。 2022年12月，时任矿业部长奇坦多签署禁令，首次禁止未加工锂原矿出口，启动"价值留存"战略，以迫使矿业公司在当地精炼矿产,从其国家资源中获取更 大的经济收益。 不过，也正是在2022年四季度，全球锂价触顶回落，到2025年碳 ...

本就处于紧平衡的锂盐市场，供给端再添重要变量。 2026年2月25日，津巴布韦矿业部发布锂矿出口禁令，涵盖在途货物，且无明确恢复时间表。 津巴布韦，是过去几年全球锂精矿增长最迅速的国家之一，此前曾吸引多家中资锂业公司参与当地资源 开发。 相关数据显示，2025年，中国进口锂精矿总量约为775.1万吨，其中从津巴布韦进口量达120.4万吨，占 总进口量的15.5%左右，是仅次于澳大利亚的第二大进口来源国。 不过，也正是在2022年四季度，全球锂价触顶回落，到2025年碳酸锂价格最大跌幅更是达到90%，矿企 在当地建设冶炼产能的计划放缓。 直至2025年6月，奇坦多明确2027年1月起全面禁止锂精矿出口，仅允许出口硫酸锂等加工产品。 "2025年底，矿业部长由温斯顿·奇坦多更换为波利特·坎巴穆拉，后者采取了更为激进的执行策略。"中 粮期货指出。 因为有刚果（金）暂停出口引发2025年钴价上涨的案例在先，此次津巴布韦限制锂精矿出口也加重了市 场各方对锂产品涨价的预期。 不过，节后碳酸锂期、现价格已经连续大涨，逼近今年1月下旬的前期高点，加之该品种多空博弈激 烈，26日多个期货合约高开低走，Wind锂矿指数涨幅也大幅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Zimbabwe to suspend all raw and lithium concentrate exports has created significant short-term supply concerns in the global new energy supply chain, particularly affecting China's lithium salt production, which relies on approximately 60% of imported lithium resources [1][9]. Group 1: Impact on Lithium Prices - Following the export ban, domestic lithium carbonate futures surged, with the main contract nearing 190,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a nearly 12% increase on February 26 [2][10]. - The lithium carbonate futures market saw a significant inflow of funds, with a net inflow of 1.64 billion yuan on February 26, making it the largest inflow in the commodity futures market that day [11][12]. Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - Zimbabwe's export ban, effective immediately, is expected to exacerbate supply tightness in the lithium market, particularly in China, where approximately 9% of lithium salt production materials are at risk of shortage [3][11]. - The ban was implemented earlier than the previously planned 2027 full ban on concentrate exports, indicating a shift in Zimbabwe's resource nationalism policies [5][14]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Stock Performance - A structural divergence was observed in the A-share lithium mining sector, with companies holding domestic mineral resources generally rising, while those with operations in Zimbabwe, such as Yahua Group and Shengxin Lithium Energy, experienced significant declines [13]. - The increase in export taxes on minerals, including lithium concentrate, further complicates the cost structure for companies operating in Zimbabwe [5][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that 2026 will be a pivotal year for the lithium industry, driven by supply disruptions and surging demand, with a projected growth rate of only 17.1% for global lithium resource capacity from 2024 to 2025 [16]. - The market's perception of lithium pricing is shifting from a "reality of looseness" to an "expectation of tightening," indicating potential for significant price increases as supply gaps become more pronounced [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - Zimbabwe's sudden ban on lithium ore and concentrate exports has created significant disruptions in the global lithium supply chain, affecting nearly 20% of China's lithium raw material supply and potentially leading to a supply gap of approximately 14,000 to 15,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent per month starting in May 2026 [1][3][4]. Group 1: Impact of Zimbabwe's Ban - Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines announced an immediate suspension of all lithium ore and concentrate exports, including shipments already at sea, to strengthen mineral regulation and promote domestic processing [1][3]. - In 2025, China imported 7.75 million tons of lithium concentrate, with 1.2 million tons (19%) coming from Zimbabwe, highlighting the critical role of Zimbabwe in China's lithium supply [3]. - The ban is expected to lead to a significant increase in lithium prices, with domestic carbonate lithium futures prices surging to over 171,440 yuan per ton, reflecting a nearly 17% increase in just two trading days [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Opportunities - The immediate market reaction saw a spike in lithium prices, with the benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 162,000 yuan per ton, an increase of over 8% since the beginning of the month [4]. - Companies with integrated mining and processing capabilities in Zimbabwe are positioned to benefit from the ban, as they can still apply for export licenses while others face supply constraints [6]. - A total of 13 domestic companies with lithium carbonate production or lithium mining resources are now in the spotlight, with 7 of them forecasting significant profit increases for 2025 [7]. Group 3: Company Profiles and Strategies - The first tier of companies, termed "ban immune," includes Huayou Cobalt, which has established deep processing capacity in Zimbabwe and is set to produce lithium sulfate, allowing it to circumvent the export ban [9]. - Zhongjin Lingnan has a strong position with its control over the Bikita lithium mine, which allows it to apply for export licenses despite the ban, and it has a stockpile of 150,000 tons of lithium concentrate to buffer against short-term export restrictions [11]. - The second tier includes resource giants like Ganfeng Lithium, which has diversified global resources and is expected to see a significant increase in production from 200,000 tons to 500,000 tons by 2026, benefiting from rising lithium prices [11][13]. Group 4: Long-term Industry Implications - The ban is prompting a reevaluation of companies with overseas resources, local processing capabilities, or stable domestic sources, as their strategic value is being reassessed in the market [17]. - The surge in lithium carbonate futures and the rising stock prices of lithium mining companies reflect this market reassessment and the potential for long-term growth in the sector [17].

Charles Zhuang 庄怀超 SFC CE: BTE209 微信: zhuangcharles; 电话: (852) 9748 7114; 26 Feb 2026 环球富盛理财有限公司 米高集团 MIGAO Group (9879.HK) 25Q2-Q3 净利润同比增长 22.1%，拓展越南市场和中东市场 25Q2-Q3 Net Profit +22.1% YoY & Expand the Vietnamese and Middle Eastern markets 最新动态 ➢ 2026 财年六个月净利润同比增长 22.1%。2026 财年六个月，集团继续巩固其作为中国领先钾肥企业的地位。于该期 间，集团收入同比增长约 10.5%至人民币 23.52 亿元，该增长主要受集团在钾肥市场所提供产品的整体平均售价上升 所推动，增幅足以抵消集团所提供产品及生产服务总销量下降约 15.0%（由 2025 财年六个月的约 103.70 万吨降至 2026 财年六个月的约 88.10 万吨）。收入增长反映尽管集团上调钾肥产品的整体平均售价以应对全球钾肥市场波动， 但对集团所提供产品及生产服务的市场需求持续上升。20 ...