本报讯（记者潘福达）11月14日，外交部和中国驻日本使领馆就中国公民前往日本发布郑重提醒。昨 天，国航、东航、南航、海航、川航、厦航等多家航司发布通知，公布了涉及日本航线客票的特殊处置 方案，对于符合相关条件的客票可予以免费退改处理。 日本东亚共同体研究所所长孙崎享认为，1972年《中日联合声明》明确表明，台湾是中华人民共和国领 土不可分割的一部分，台湾是中国的一部分，怎么会与日本的"存亡危机事态"有关？挑拨日中关系，从 而推动日本在战略上进一步跟随美国，这恐怕正是高市早苗的意图。 ■国航 在通知中明确，对于在今年11月15日12时（含）前购买或换开产生新票号的国航999开头的客票 （包括里程奖励客票）；客票未使用行程涉及旅行日期为2025年11月15日（含）至2025年12月31日 （含）之间东京、大阪、名古屋、福冈、仙台、广岛、札幌、冲绳进出港的国航实际承运航班和挂CA 航班号的代码共享航班，在2025年11月15日0时（含）以后申请客票变更或退票（以取消客票订座时间 为准）的，在客票有效期内，首次变更免收变更手续费。 ■东航 在通知中明确，对于在今年11月15日12时（含）前购买或换开的东航781客票填 ...

Core Insights - 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with strategies focusing on "reducing internal competition" and "promoting overseas expansion" as key measures to address current economic challenges and foster new growth momentum in the transportation sector [3]. Group 1: Industry Focus Areas - The transportation industry will concentrate on four main lines of development in alignment with the "14th Five-Year Plan" policies and industry trends [3]. - The aviation and express delivery sectors are highlighted for their potential in achieving high-quality development through reduced internal competition [4]. - The shipping industry is undergoing global changes, with oil transportation experiencing a boom while the dry bulk sector faces challenges [5]. Group 2: Overseas Expansion Opportunities - Jitu Express is positioned as a rare player in Southeast Asia and Latin America, benefiting from the rapid growth of Tiktok and a projected 65% increase in parcel volume in Southeast Asia for the first three quarters of 2025 [6]. - Jiao You International is focusing on logistics in Africa, with coal trade in Mongolia expected to rebound significantly in the second half of 2025, while Africa is anticipated to become a major growth driver [6]. - The aviation sector is expected to see accelerated profit recovery in 2026, with major airlines likely to achieve profitability in 2025 [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Predictions - The express delivery sector is set to improve in 2026, with the industry experiencing a price recovery following a period of intense competition [6]. - Oil transportation is benefiting from OPEC+ production increases and seasonal demand, leading to rising freight rates [6]. - The dry bulk shipping sector is expected to see a recovery in demand due to new mining projects and potential interest rate cuts [6]. Group 4: Economic Transition and Stability - The report emphasizes the importance of stable output during the economic transition period, with recommendations for investments in highway and port infrastructure [6].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive outlook for the logistics and transportation sector, particularly highlighting opportunities in express delivery and aviation [2][4][6]. Core Views - The express delivery sector is expected to see a 7% year-on-year growth in business volume for October, with revenue projected to increase by 5% [2]. - The logistics sector is focusing on smart logistics, with companies like Haichen Co. being recommended due to improved demand [3]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a slight increase in flight volumes, with domestic airlines expected to benefit from supply-demand optimization leading to higher ticket prices [4]. - The shipping sector shows growth in oil and dry bulk transportation indices, with a notable increase in crude oil transportation rates [5]. Summary by Sections Transportation Index Review - The transportation index rose by 1.6% during the week of November 8-14, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.7% [1][13]. Express Delivery - The express delivery business volume is projected to grow by 7% in October, with a revenue increase of 5% expected [2]. - The report recommends SF Holding due to its valuation and operational resilience [2]. Logistics - The chemical product price index shows a year-on-year decrease of 11.2%, while domestic shipping prices for liquid chemicals have increased by 3.29% year-on-year [3]. - Haichen Co. is recommended for its focus on smart logistics and improved demand [3]. Aviation - The average daily flight volume increased by 2.78% year-on-year, with international flights seeing a 12.55% increase [4]. - The report recommends China National Aviation and Southern Airlines due to expected profit growth from ticket price increases [4]. Shipping - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) rose by 3.6% week-on-week, while the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 3.6% [5]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 3.1% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in dry bulk shipping [5][40]. Road and Rail - The report notes a decline in truck traffic on highways, with a 2.07% decrease week-on-week [6]. - The overall performance of major highway operators is considered cost-effective, with dividend yields exceeding the ten-year government bond yield [6][84].

Core Viewpoint - Multiple Chinese airlines have announced special handling policies for tickets related to flights to Japan due to recent travel advisories from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Chinese embassies in Japan, urging citizens to avoid travel to Japan and to enhance safety awareness [1][2]. Group 1: Applicable Conditions - The special handling policies apply to tickets purchased or exchanged before 12:00 on November 15, 2025, with travel dates between November 15, 2025, and December 31, 2025, for flights to and from various Japanese cities [2][7][9][11][13][21][25][27]. Group 2: Ticket Change and Refund Rules - For ticket changes, the first change is free of charge, but fare differences may apply. Subsequent changes must adhere to the original ticket conditions [4][6][10][12][18][22][26]. - Refunds for unused segments are allowed without a refund fee, but previously changed tickets will follow the original ticket conditions for refunds [5][12][19][22][26]. - If passengers wish to change the itinerary or carrier, it is recommended to refund the original ticket and purchase a new one [6][10][12][18][22][26]. Group 3: Specific Airline Policies - China National Airlines, Southern Airlines, Eastern Airlines, Sichuan Airlines, Hainan Airlines, Spring Airlines, Shenzhen Airlines, Xiamen Airlines, and Shandong Airlines have all issued similar policies regarding ticket changes and refunds for flights to Japan [2][7][9][11][13][21][25][27].

Group 1 - Multiple airlines in China, including Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and Southern Airlines, announced a special ticket handling policy for flights to Japan, allowing free refunds and changes for tickets with travel dates before December 31, 2025 [2] - Other airlines such as Sichuan Airlines, Xiamen Airlines, and Hainan Airlines also issued similar notifications regarding ticket handling for Japan routes [2] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission disclosed that Yuzhu Technology Co., Ltd. has completed its IPO guidance work, with the guidance period lasting less than four months [3] - The IPO guidance was filed on July 18, 2025, and the completion report was issued by CITIC Securities on November 10, 2025, with 24 staff members assigned during the guidance period [3] Group 3 - Berkshire Hathaway built a position in Google-A during the third quarter, purchasing nearly 17.85 million shares, corresponding to a market value of approximately $4.3 billion at the end of the quarter [5] - Berkshire also increased its holdings in several companies, including Chubb, Lennar, Domino's Pizza, Sirius XM, and Lamar Advertising, while reducing its stake in Apple by selling nearly 41.79 million shares, resulting in a 15% decrease in Apple shares held [5]

Core Points - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and embassies in Japan have advised Chinese citizens to avoid traveling to Japan due to deteriorating security conditions and rising incidents of crime against Chinese nationals [5][6] - Several Chinese airlines, including Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Hainan Airlines, Sichuan Airlines, and Xiamen Airlines, have announced special policies for ticket changes and refunds for flights to Japan scheduled before December 31, 2025 [1][2][3][4][5] Airline Policies - Air China allows free ticket changes or refunds for tickets purchased or changed before November 15, 2025, for flights to and from Japan between November 15, 2025, and December 31, 2025 [3] - China Southern Airlines has similar provisions for tickets purchased before November 15, 2025, for flights to Japan during the specified period [1] - China Eastern Airlines has set guidelines for ticket changes or refunds for flights involving Japan, applicable to tickets issued before November 15, 2025 [4] - Hainan Airlines has announced special handling for tickets issued before November 15, 2025, for flights to Japan within the same travel window [2] - Sichuan Airlines and Xiamen Airlines have also established similar policies for tickets related to Japan, ensuring flexibility for travelers [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has issued a warning for its citizens to avoid traveling to Japan due to deteriorating security conditions and rising incidents of crime against Chinese nationals [7]. Group 1: Government Warnings - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Chinese embassies in Japan have advised Chinese citizens to stay alert regarding local security situations and enhance self-protection measures [7]. - There has been a notable increase in crimes against Chinese citizens in Japan, with several incidents remaining unresolved [7]. Group 2: Airline Policies - Six airlines, including Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Hainan Airlines, Sichuan Airlines, and Xiamen Airlines, have announced special measures for ticket refunds and changes for flights to Japan scheduled before December 31, 2025 [2][3][4][5][6][9]. - Specific conditions apply for ticket changes or refunds, including the requirement that tickets must have been purchased or changed before November 15, 2025, and must involve flights to or from Japan during the specified dates [3][4][5][6][9].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Chinese consulates in Japan have issued a serious reminder regarding Chinese citizens traveling to Japan, prompting several airlines to announce special handling procedures for tickets related to Japan routes [1] Airline Specific Summaries - **Air China**: For tickets purchased or exchanged before November 15, 2023, involving travel dates from November 15, 2025, to December 31, 2025, passengers can change or refund tickets without fees, but must pay for fare differences [3] - **China Southern Airlines**: Similar to Air China, tickets purchased before November 15, 2023, for travel between November 15, 2025, and December 31, 2025, allow for free refunds and changes under certain conditions [4] - **China Eastern Airlines**: Passengers with tickets purchased before November 15, 2023, for travel dates from November 15, 2025, to December 31, 2025, can change their flights for free within three days of the original flight date [5] - **Hainan Airlines**: Tickets purchased before November 15, 2023, for travel between November 15, 2025, and December 31, 2025, allow for free changes and refunds under specified conditions [6] - **Sichuan Airlines**: Passengers with tickets purchased before November 15, 2023, for travel dates from November 15, 2025, to December 31, 2025, can change or refund tickets without fees, subject to certain conditions [7]

Core Points - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Chinese consulates in Japan have issued a serious warning to Chinese citizens regarding travel to Japan due to safety concerns [4][3] - Major Chinese airlines, including China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Air China, have introduced free ticket change and refund policies for flights to Japan from November 15 to December 31, 2025 [3][2] - The demand for flights to Japan surged during the recent National Day holiday, but has since declined significantly, with ticket prices dropping to as low as 100 yuan excluding taxes [4][5] Airline Policies - China Eastern Airlines has announced a special handling plan for tickets involving Japan, allowing one free change or a full refund without service fees for tickets with at least one unused segment related to Japan [2] - Similar policies have been adopted by China Southern Airlines and Air China, with the same time frame for eligible tickets [3] Market Trends - The number of weekly flights from mainland China to Japan has significantly decreased, with a reported 1189 flights in the 45th week of the year, representing an 82.9% recovery rate compared to the same week in 2019, and a 14.5% decrease from the previous week [5][7] - Due to the recent travel warnings and airline policy changes, airlines may reduce flights to Japan and shift capacity to other routes, particularly to Southeast Asia, which is experiencing a recovery in demand [7]

Group 1 - China Southern Airlines, Air China, and China Eastern Airlines have announced special handling procedures for tickets related to flights to Japan due to recent travel advisories from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs [1][29] - The applicable tickets for China Southern Airlines are those purchased or exchanged before November 15, 2025, with travel dates between November 15, 2025, and December 31, 2025, involving flights to and from Japan [2][3] - For ticket changes, China Southern Airlines allows the first change to the same itinerary without a fee, while subsequent changes will follow the ticket usage conditions [2][3] Group 2 - Air China's special handling applies to tickets purchased or exchanged before November 15, 2025, for flights to specific Japanese cities during the same travel window [7][8] - Air China offers a fee waiver for the first change of ticket, but additional fees may apply for fare differences [10][11] - The notification for Air China will take effect from November 15, 2025 [13] Group 3 - China Eastern Airlines has issued similar guidelines for tickets involving flights to various Japanese cities, with the same purchase and travel date conditions [16][18] - Changes to tickets with China Eastern Airlines can be made without a fee for the first change if it is within three days of the original flight [19][20] - The policy for China Eastern Airlines also emphasizes the need to cancel any pre-booked services before making changes [23] Group 4 - Hainan Airlines has set similar rules for tickets purchased before November 15, 2025, for flights to Japan, allowing for fee-free changes and cancellations under specific conditions [25] - Sichuan Airlines has also announced special handling for tickets issued before November 15, 2025, with similar rules for changes and cancellations [27] - All airlines emphasize the importance of adhering to the specified timelines for cancellations and changes to ensure compliance with the new policies [25][27]