南华期货沥青风险管理日报 2025年6月6日 凌川惠（投资咨询证号：Z0019531） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 沥青价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沥青主力合约 | 3400-3600 | 15.97% | 17.58% | source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 沥青风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方向 套保比例（%） 建议入场区间 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心沥青价 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做 | bu2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 3500-3600 | | | 格下跌 | | 空沥青期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | | | | | | 采购管理 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根据 | 空 | 为了防止沥青价格上涨而 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the steady advancement of the "Electricity AI Agent" and the activation of new pilot projects for the new power system, focusing on innovative technologies and models to drive breakthroughs in construction [9] - The dual deep coupling of AI and electricity is expected to enhance resource allocation efficiency and foster a collaborative development environment for the "energy-computing" ecosystem [9] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the establishment of pilot projects for the new power system, emphasizing the exploration of new technologies and models in typical cities [9] - Key focus areas include grid-type technology, system-friendly renewable energy stations, intelligent microgrids, and virtual power plants [9] Investment Recommendations and Targets - Suggested companies to focus on include: - "Electricity AI Agent" application segment: Dongfang Electronics (000682, Not Rated), Guoneng Rixin (301162, Accumulate), Zhiyang Innovation (688191, Not Rated), State Grid Xintong (600131, Not Rated), Teradyne (300001, Buy), and Anke Rui (300286, Buy) [9] - AI server power supply segment: Magmi (002851, Not Rated), Zhongheng Electric (002364, Not Rated), Hewei Electric (603063, Not Rated), Oulu Tong (300870, Not Rated), Kehua Data (002335, Not Rated), and Keda (002518, Not Rated) [9] - AIDC power supply segment: Jinpan Technology (688676, Buy), Mingyang Electric (301291, Not Rated), Weiteng Electric (688226, Not Rated), Liangxin Co. (002706, Not Rated), Chint Electric (601877, Not Rated), and Samsung Medical (601567, Not Rated) [9]

证券时报·数据宝统计，截至今日下午收盘，上证综指3384.10点，收于五日均线之上，涨跌幅0.23%，A 股总成交额为13168.44亿元。到目前为止，今日有614只A股价格突破了五日均线，其中乖离率较大的个 股有青云科技、华强科技、优刻得等，乖离率分别为14.30%、10.27%、9.59%；建业股份、均胜电子、 老白干酒等个股乖离率较小，刚刚站上五日均线。 6月5日突破五日均线个股乖离率排名 | 证券代 | 证券简 | 今日涨跌幅 | 今日换手率 | 五日均线 | 最新价 | 乖离率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 码 | 称 | （%） | （%） | （元） | （元） | （%） | | 688316 | 青云科 技 | 20.00 | 21.57 | 51.65 | 59.03 | 14.30 | | 688151 | 华强科 技 | 13.32 | 13.93 | 17.36 | 19.14 | 10.27 | | 688158 | 优刻得 | 12.37 | 14.33 | 20.22 | 22.16 | 9.59 | | 839 ...

Group 1: Core Views - The new AI legislation has eliminated uncertainties in global markets for Nvidia outside of China, boosting market confidence with significant projects like Stargate [2] - Nvidia's stock has rebounded to early 2025 averages, indicating a recovery in market sentiment, while Broadcom approaches historical highs [2] - The US stock market appears to be pricing around the Blackwell generation, with companies like Amphenol and Viavi Technologies being key players in this trend [2][3] Group 2: A-Share Market Dynamics - A-share players are mirroring the logic of the US market, focusing on the pricing recovery of the Blackwell generation while also considering geopolitical risks and technological upgrades [5][6] - Key components for the Blackwell generation include copper cables, optical modules, and PCBs, with PCB production largely unaffected by tariffs due to its export routes [7] - Companies like Shenghong Technology and New Ease have seen significant recovery in market performance, driven by public fund investments [7] Group 3: Domestic Computing Power - Domestic computing power is currently in a phase of consolidation, influenced by factors such as the growth outlook from SMIC and new chip regulations that have halved upstream chip supply [9][10] - The emergence of numerous participants in AIDC has raised concerns about increased competition, as highlighted by recent Q1 financial reports [10] - National-level attention is being directed towards the coordination of AIDC infrastructure to avoid redundant construction [10] Group 4: Future Opportunities - The pricing recovery for Blackwell is expected to complete by the end of June, with future focus on the GB300 and Rubin architectures [12] - The evolution of AI cluster systems is shifting towards "interconnectivity," necessitating innovations in hardware architecture to meet new demands [13] - Opportunities in domestic computing power are anticipated to arise from centralized computing and collaborative innovation between hardware and software [14] Group 5: FAQs - High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) is recognized as a trend, with uncertainties primarily related to tariff barriers that could limit market access [16] - The demand for high-end PCBs is expected to rise as chip complexity increases, although potential shifts in demand due to new technologies like CPO and OIO are noted [17] - The large-scale commercialization of Blackwell is projected to significantly increase the market for 200G/λ, with SiPho technology poised to gain a competitive edge [18]

Group 1: Report Summary - The monthly price range forecast for the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 18.35% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.65% [1] - For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 25% of the bu2509 contract in the 3500 - 3600 range to lock in profits [1] - For procurement management, when the regular inventory is low, it is recommended to buy 50% of the bu2509 contract in the 3300 - 3400 range to lock in procurement costs [1] - Weekly asphalt production increased by about 5.2%, while demand in South and East China decreased by 7.5% due to rainfall, leading to an increase in the inventory - to - consumption ratio this week [2] - The basis in the North China market strengthened, and the cracking spread on the futures market continued to strengthen, with the overall valuation remaining high [2] - In the short term, it is necessary to see if the slowdown in demand growth during the rainy season can match the increase in production growth under high profits. In the long - term, there is an expected increase in demand in the last year of the 14th Five - Year Plan [2] - After the callback, it is still advisable to maintain a long - position - based configuration [2] Group 2: Price and Spread Data Spot Price - The Shandong spot price on June 3, 2025, was 3645 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 20 yuan/ton [5] - The Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 20 yuan/ton [5] - The North China spot price was 3645 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 35 yuan/ton [5] - The South China spot price was 3365 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 15 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 75 yuan/ton [5] Basis - The Shandong spot 09 basis on June 3, 2025, was 189 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 22 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 29 yuan/ton [5] - The Yangtze River Delta spot 09 basis was 144 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 22 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 29 yuan/ton [5] - The North China spot 09 basis was 189 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 42 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 44 yuan/ton [5] - The South China spot 09 basis was - 91 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 57 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 66 yuan/ton [5] Cracking Spread - The Shandong spot cracking spread against Brent on June 3, 2025, was 162.036 yuan/barrel, with a daily decrease of 15.2169 yuan/barrel and a weekly decrease of 7.6459 yuan/barrel [8] - The futures main contract cracking spread against Brent was 129.4578 yuan/barrel, with a daily decrease of 18.6826 yuan/barrel and a weekly decrease of 21.3357 yuan/barrel [8] Group 3: Factors Analysis Bullish Factors - The inventory structure of asphalt is good [7] - There is a seasonal peak in demand [7] - The basis is strengthening [7] Bearish Factors - The cracking spread remains at a high level [4] - After the end of maintenance, the production of some refineries has recovered [7] - The plum - rain season in the South has dragged down demand [7]

2025 年 4 月 11 日，深圳市禾望电气股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）召开 2025 年第一次临时董事会会议，审议通过了《关于回购公司股份方案的议案》，同 意公司使用自有资金以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份，回购资金总额不低于人 民币 1,000 万元（含），不超过人民币 2,000 万元（含），回购价格不超过 46.31 元/ 股，回购期限自董事会审议通过本次回购方案之日起不超过 12 个月。具体内容详 见公司于 2025 年 4 月 12 日在上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）披露的《深 圳市禾望电气股份有限公司关于以集中竞价交易方式回购股份的预案》（公告编号： 2025-032）。 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 | 回购方案首次披露日 | 2025/4/12，由公司董事长韩玉先生提议 | | --- | --- | | 回购方案实施期限 | 待董事会审议通过后 个月 12 | | 预计回购金额 | 1,000万元~2,000万元 | | 回购用途 | □减少注册资本 √用于员工持股 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic manufacturing sector has faced significant challenges over the past year and a half, including overcapacity, price declines, and intense competition, leading to substantial losses for many companies. However, inverter manufacturers have shown remarkable performance, becoming a bright spot in the industry despite recent negative news affecting the market outlook [2][3]. Group 1: Performance of Inverter Companies - In 2024, among 10 listed companies primarily engaged in inverter business, only GoodWe reported a loss of 0.62 billion yuan, while other companies achieved profitability. Leading company Sungrow achieved a record revenue of 77.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.76%, and a net profit of 11.04 billion yuan, up 16.92% year-on-year, making it the only company in the top 10 of the photovoltaic manufacturing sector to report growth [3][4]. - The second-highest net profit in the sector was reported by Deye Technology, with annual revenue of 11.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.82%, and a net profit of 2.96 billion yuan, up 65.29% year-on-year. Other inverter companies like Jinlang Technology and Shuneng Electric also performed well, indicating a peak year for many inverter manufacturers amid overall industry challenges [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - The capital market responded positively to the performance of inverter companies, with Sungrow's stock price rising and its market capitalization surpassing that of leading material integration giant LONGi Green Energy. This shift reflects a growing optimism towards the inverter segment amid a generally challenging environment for photovoltaic materials [4]. - The first IPOs in the photovoltaic storage sector in 2024 were also inverter-focused companies, indicating a favorable market perception of the inverter segment compared to the broader photovoltaic materials market, which has seen no new listings [4]. Group 3: Future Market Dynamics - The inverter market is expected to face increased volatility due to market reforms and tariff changes in 2025, with predictions of a decline in photovoltaic installation volumes for the first time in five years. This anticipated decrease in demand could negatively impact inverter companies' performance [6][7]. - The "136 Document" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration accelerated the market entry of renewable energy, leading to a surge in inverter production and shipments in early 2024. However, demand began to decline significantly from May, raising concerns about potential oversupply and price drops in the future [7][8]. Group 4: Export Performance and Challenges - In 2024, China's inverter exports reached 58.8 billion yuan, with Sungrow's overseas revenue accounting for 46.62% of its total revenue and a gross margin of 40.29%, nearly double that of its domestic operations. The overseas market remains crucial for many companies [8][10]. - However, trade barriers in the U.S. and Europe pose significant risks. The introduction of "reciprocal tariffs" in the U.S. and potential restrictions on Chinese inverters in Europe could impact export performance. Recent data shows a decline in exports to the U.S. and significant drops in exports to key European markets, highlighting the challenges faced by inverter manufacturers in maintaining their international market positions [9][10].

Core Points - The company has approved and implemented the 2023 Stock Option Incentive Plan, which includes the granting of stock options to eligible participants [1][2] - The first exercise period for the stock options has been completed, and the company has decided to cancel unexercised options due to the departure of certain participants [3][4][5] - The second exercise period has been established, with specific conditions that must be met for the options to be exercised [6][9] Summary of the 2023 Stock Option Incentive Plan - The plan was approved by the board and the first extraordinary shareholders' meeting, with independent opinions provided by the independent directors and legal advisors [1][2] - The plan includes a waiting period of 24 months before the second exercise period begins, which lasts until 36 months after the grant date [6][9] - The company has set specific performance targets for the participants, including a required revenue growth rate of at least 60% for 2024 compared to 2022 [9][10] Exercise Conditions and Performance Assessment - The conditions for the second exercise period have been met, including no adverse audit opinions and no disqualifying actions against the participants [6][8] - The performance assessment will be conducted annually, with a scoring system determining the proportion of options that can be exercised based on individual performance [10][11] - The total number of options available for exercise in the second period is 6,283,200, distributed among 314 participants [14][16] Financial Implications - The company will account for the stock option expenses according to relevant accounting standards, and the exercise of options is not expected to have a significant impact on the company's financial status [15][16] - The fair value of the stock options was determined using the Black-Scholes model at the grant date, and no re-evaluation is required post-grant [15]

证券代码：603063 证券简称：禾望电气 公告编号：2025-055 深圳市禾望电气股份有限公司 关于 2023 年股票期权激励计划首次授予部分第二个行权期 符合行权条件的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 1、股票期权拟行权数量：628.32 万份。 2、行权股票来源：公司向激励对象定向增发的本公司 A 股普通股。 一、2023 年股票期权激励计划批准及实施情况 （一）2023 年股票期权激励计划 1、2023 年 3 月 31 日，公司召开 2023 年第四次临时董事会会议，会议审议 通过了《关于公司<2023 年股票期权激励计划（草案）>及其摘要的议案》和《关 于制定公司<2023 年股票期权激励计划实施考核管理办法>的议案》。公司 2023 年第四次临时监事会会议审议通过了前述议案及《关于公司<2023 年股票期权激 励计划首次授予激励对象名单>核查意见的议案》。公司独立董事就本次激励计 划是否有利于公司的持续发展及是否存在损害公司及全体股东利益的情形发表 独立意见，并公开征集投票权 ...

Core Insights - NVIDIA has formed strategic collaborations with companies like Weidi and Navitas Semiconductor to develop next-generation 800V HVDC products, expected to launch in the second half of 2026, ahead of NVIDIA's new platforms [2][5] - The demand for high-performance GPUs is surging due to the rapid expansion of AI models, making power management in data centers a critical bottleneck [5] - The global HVDC market is projected to reach $15.68 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.9%, while China's HVDC market is expected to exceed 12 billion yuan by 2025, with a CAGR of 35% [5][6] Company Developments - Navitas Semiconductor, a leader in GaN and SiC technologies, has announced a partnership with NVIDIA to enhance the efficiency and reliability of the "Kyber" rack-level systems [4] - The stock price of Navitas Semiconductor surged by 180% in after-hours trading following the announcement of its collaboration with NVIDIA [2] - Companies in the A-share and Hong Kong markets related to third-generation semiconductors experienced significant price increases due to these developments [4] Market Trends - Traditional data center architectures are reaching physical limits in power density and efficiency, necessitating the transition to HVDC systems to meet increasing computational demands [5] - The penetration rate of HVDC systems is expected to rise as data centers expand, with HVDC likely to gradually replace UPS systems as the mainstream configuration in AI data centers [5][6] - The market for HVDC is anticipated to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market space of 28.1 billion yuan by 2028, reflecting a CAGR of 90.2% from 2024 to 2028 [6] Key Players in A-Share Market - The leading companies in the A-share market for HVDC technology include five key players, each with significant market shares and technological advantages [7] - The first company is a global leader in HVDC technology, holding over 50% market share in data centers and expecting a net profit of over 100 million yuan in 2024, a 178% increase year-on-year [8] - The second company is a top provider of electrical control and energy-saving solutions, recognized as NVIDIA's designated supplier for data center components [10][11] - The third company is a major UPS provider and has strategic partnerships to promote AI model and domestic computing development [12][13] - The fourth company is a leading manufacturer of photovoltaic inverters, showing a net profit increase of over 90% in the first quarter [14][15] - The fifth company specializes in energy internet solutions and is a global leader in data center power quality [16]