Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices has led to increased interest in structured deposits linked to gold, with various banks offering competitive products that appeal to conservative investors seeking stable returns [1][4]. Group 1: Structured Deposits Overview - Structured deposits are floating-rate deposits that are protected by deposit insurance, where the interest earned is invested in financial derivatives like gold, indices, or stocks to pursue higher returns [2]. - For example, China Merchants Bank has launched gold-linked structured deposits with investment terms ranging from 7 to 181 days, offering annualized rates up to 1.78% [2]. - Historical performance indicates that most structured deposits yield mid-range returns, with an 80% probability of achieving such outcomes [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Banks are increasingly offering gold-linked structured deposits to attract risk-averse investors amid market volatility and declining interest rates [4]. - These products help banks capture attention during periods of high gold price fluctuations, enhancing retail asset management and mitigating net interest margin pressures [4]. - The demand for stable investment options has surged, particularly as traditional fixed-term deposit rates have fallen to around 1.30% for longer terms and even lower for shorter durations [4]. Group 3: Investor Considerations - Despite the promise of capital protection, structured deposits are still investment products with inherent risks, including uncertain returns and liquidity constraints [5]. - Investors are advised to undergo risk assessments before purchasing these products and to be cautious of the advertised maximum returns [5]. - It is essential for investors to understand the complex terms and conditions associated with these products, including the potential for locked funds during the investment period [5].

2026年1月14日，贵金属市场再迎历史性时刻，现货白银开盘强势拉升，首次站上90美元/盎司关口，再创历史新高。截至发稿，现货白银报91.13美元/盎 司，日内涨幅达4.85%，2026年开年以来，白银现货、期货价格累计涨幅已达25%左右，涨势远超市场预期。 银价狂飙市值登顶，贵金属板块应声大涨 银价的持续走高推动白银资产市值大幅攀升，1月14日市值数据平台CompaniesMarketCap数据显示，白银总市值首次突破5万亿美元大关，达5.039万亿美 元，超越芯片巨头英伟达的4.523万亿美元，成为全球第二大资产，黄金则以32.162万亿美元市值稳居榜首。 资本市场对银价大涨迅速作出反应，1月14日上午收盘，A股贵金属板块集体走高，其中湖南白银领涨，涨幅达9.53%，山金国际、四川黄金、中金黄金 等标的纷纷跟涨，贵金属投资热情持续升温。 此次银价飙升背后有明确的基本面支撑，1月13日美国劳工部公布2025年12月通胀数据，CPI同比上涨2.7%、核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，数据公布后，市场 对美联储较早降息的预期升温，交易员押注美联储4月降息概率从38%升至42%，成为白银价格走高的直接推手。而这一轮涨势 ...

Group 1 - Multiple funds, including Yongying Fund, have announced subscription limits to control fund size, reflecting a cautious attitude from fund managers amid strong A-share market performance [1] - HSBC predicts that gold prices may reach $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, driven by safe-haven demand, a weaker dollar, and increasing fiscal deficits [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have surged, with some brands exceeding 1,430 yuan per gram, reflecting the rise in international gold prices [2] Group 2 - Counterpoint Research forecasts that Apple will lead the global smartphone market with a 25% share in Q4 2025, marking a historical high [2] - Kweichow Moutai plans to reduce the payment prices for several products, with some prices dropping by over 30%, indicating a shift in pricing strategy [3] - The first domestic underwater pumped storage system, "Dongchu No. 1," has successfully completed trials, marking a significant advancement in underwater energy storage technology [4] Group 3 - Volvo's battery company, NOVO Energy, has announced a suspension of operations and plans to lay off all employees while seeking new technical partners [4] - Shanxi Bank's equity auction ended in failure, with no bids placed, highlighting issues with its major shareholder's reputation [4] - Luxshare Precision and Wistron are in a dispute over an asset transaction in India, with claims amounting to approximately 1.6 billion yuan [5] Group 4 - GAC Trumpchi has undergone a leadership change, with a new chairman appointed, indicating potential strategic shifts within the company [5] - Palm Holdings has filed a lawsuit to recover approximately 144 million yuan in project payments, reflecting ongoing contractual disputes [6] - Jixin Technology's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 1% of the company's shares, indicating potential changes in ownership structure [7] Group 5 - Jiurich New Materials has commenced trial production of a hydroxyl ketone project, which is expected to have competitive advantages in various applications [8] - China Power Construction has signed two significant contracts totaling approximately 15.589 billion yuan for projects in Kazakhstan and Laos, indicating strong international business activity [9][10] - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank reported a 10.52% increase in net profit for 2025, reflecting positive financial performance [11] Group 6 - Hendi Pharmaceutical anticipates a significant decline in net profit for 2025, projecting a decrease of 57.4% to 66.14% [12] - Haopeng Technology expects a substantial increase in net profit for 2025, with growth projected between 113.69% and 141.09% [13] - Tengyuan Cobalt anticipates a net profit increase of 50.02% to 69.87% for 2025, indicating strong performance expectations [14] Group 7 - Huazhi Jie plans to repurchase shares worth 30 to 50 million yuan for employee stock ownership plans, reflecting a commitment to employee engagement [15] - Shimao Energy is planning a change in control, leading to a continued suspension of its stock, indicating potential restructuring [16] - The ChiNext index experienced a decline of nearly 2%, with significant sell-offs in commercial aerospace stocks, reflecting market volatility [17]

本报记者 杨 洁 近期，多家外资银行发布2026年经济展望报告及观点。综合来看，2026年，外资银行普遍对中国经济前 景保持乐观，与此同时，多家外资银行特别看好科技和医疗健康等行业。 汇丰银行发布的新年经济展望提到，预计全球经济增速将在2026年保持平稳，贸易出口增速或将放缓， 人工智能领域的强劲投资将为未来两年内的投资和贸易增长提供一定支撑。亚洲地区的出口表现仍将优 于全球整体水平。 德意志银行研究部也在近期发布了2026年中国宏观经济展望报告，德意志银行中国区首席经济学家熊奕 在报告中提到，2025年是重塑中国长期经济前景的关键之年，也是充分展现中国科技实力的一年。 "站在2026年的新起点，全球市场正面临关键的转折。我们预见美元的结构性支撑将逐步减弱，而亚洲 经济的韧性与改革红利正日益凸显。我们预期风险资产在2026年将表现领先，在市场上升的同时分化将 更为明显，建议在更广泛的资产类别中进行分散投资。"渣打银行（中国）有限公司财富方案部总经理 梁大伟表示。 星展银行高级投资策略师邓志坚对《证券日报》记者表示："回顾2025年，我们一直在强调世界格局正 在转变。当面对挑战的时候，我们必须要坚持投资于全球发 ...

黄金市场进入2026年，攻势丝毫未减。1月12日，现货伦敦金强势突破4580美元心理关口。这不是场数 字游戏，这场战役的火药味早已弥漫至全球每个角落。 国内市场迅速响应国际涨势，各大金店报价牌频繁翻转。 这轮上涨并非孤立事件。2025年，黄金已创下自1979年以来的最佳年度表现。世界银行数据显示，贵金 属价格在2024年上涨20%的基础上，2025年上半年再度大涨近25%。 金融机构纷纷调整预测防线。摩根大通预计到2026年第四季度，金价将升至平均每盎司5055美元；瑞银 财富管理已将阶段性目标价上调至5000美元，并指出若风险加剧，金价可能冲击5400美元高位。 多方参战 黄金价格突破4500美元，背后是多股力量的联合攻势。排排网研究员隋东将其归结为"四重助涨"逻辑， 宛如四路大军汇集。 第一路军是预期宽松的货币环境。市场押注美联储降息周期，利率走低直接削减了持有黄金的机会成 本。 第四路军是白银工业需求的外溢效应。白银在光伏、新能源等领域应用广泛，其价格上涨带动了整个贵 金属板块的人气。 央行力量 在这场保值战争中，各国央行无疑是最具战略眼光和持久力的主力军团。他们的行为已从战术调整转变 为战略转向。 世 ...

Group 1 - The precious metals market has started the year with significant price increases, with gold surpassing $4600 per ounce and silver exceeding $83 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and shifts in monetary policy [1][2] - The military actions by the U.S. in Venezuela have heightened tensions in Latin America, contributing to a rise in oil prices and increasing concerns over energy supply security, which in turn has led to a surge in investment in precious metals [2] - Central banks globally have been increasing their gold reserves, with China's central bank purchasing over 300 tons in 2025, leading to a 27% increase in gold ETF holdings [2] Group 2 - The recent U.S. employment data has prompted a shift in market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with the probability of a March rate cut rising from 58% to 82%, which has lowered real interest rates and reduced the holding costs of gold [2][3] - Historical data indicates that gold prices typically rise in the six months leading up to a rate cut, with an average increase of 42% during previous economic crises [3] - Silver has experienced extreme volatility, with daily price swings reaching 15% and cumulative fluctuations exceeding 20%, attributed to its unique market structure and increasing industrial demand [4] Group 3 - Institutional views on the sustainability of the bull market in precious metals are divided, with Goldman Sachs predicting an average gold price of $4800 and silver at $85, while HSBC warns of potential technical corrections if rate cuts are slower than expected [5] - Recent market data shows a decrease in holdings for the largest gold ETF, SPDR, while silver ETF holdings have increased, indicating a shift in investment strategies between gold and silver [5] - The precious metals market is at a crossroads, influenced by prolonged geopolitical conflicts, a debt-driven rate cut cycle, and structural growth in industrial demand, but also facing challenges from margin increases and technical overbought conditions [5]

2026年开年首个重要贵金属行情里程碑诞生。亚洲市场1月12日上午10时许，国际现货黄金价格攀升幅 度超1%，盘中一度触及4563.14美元/安士，随后突破4600美元/安士整数关口，创下开年以来首次历史 新高。市场分析指出，地缘政治紧张局势升级、全球经济不确定性加剧，叠加市场对美国联邦储备局降 息预期升温，共同构成了此次金价飙升的核心驱动力。 从市场预期来看，投资者当前普遍预判美联储2026年至少将实施两次降息。业内普遍认为，低利率环境 通常会提升非收益性资产的吸引力，黄金作为典型的抗通胀、抗风险资产，在利率下行周期往往表现突 出。历史数据显示，2025年国际金价已走出"史诗级行情"，全年累计涨幅约七成，50次刷新历史纪录， 此次突破4600美元/安士，正是这一牛市行情的延续。 机构对后续金价走势普遍持乐观态度。汇丰银行明确指出，随着地缘政治风险持续扩散及全球债务问题 加剧，金价有望在2026年上半年攀升至5000美元/安士的新高度。世界黄金协会更预测，2026年金价整 体涨幅可能达15%至30%，突破5000美元/安士关口是大概率事件。摩根大通、高盛等机构也强调，全球 央行购金的结构性趋势将持续为金价提供 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, with significant price fluctuations and external economic factors influencing gold prices [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices are fluctuating around $4,461.54 per ounce, showing a daily volatility of over $70, as market participants await key economic data [1]. - The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals have led to a rebound in the US dollar index above 98, putting pressure on gold prices [3]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly related to US military actions in Venezuela, are contributing to a risk-averse sentiment that supports gold prices [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The 50-day moving average has provided technical support for gold prices, with current support levels identified between $4,415 and $4,422, and a significant level at $4,445 [3]. - A recent Bloomberg commodity index rebalancing has caused a drop in gold's weight from 20.4% to 14.9%, potentially triggering passive selling of up to $7 billion [3][5]. - The gold market is facing short-term technical selling pressure, with significant sell-offs observed on January 8, where gold prices dropped nearly $70 [5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The upcoming US non-farm payroll data is a focal point for market participants, with expectations of 60,000 new jobs, which is lower than the previous figure of 64,000 [5]. - Discrepancies in interest rate expectations between market forecasts and Federal Reserve guidance are contributing to gold price volatility [5][7]. - The probability of maintaining interest rates in January is 88.4%, with a 11.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut, influenced by recent hawkish comments from Fed officials [7]. Group 4: Central Bank Activity - Central bank gold purchases are a significant long-term support factor, with global central banks expected to add 634 tons of gold in 2025, and China's reserves increasing to 74.15 million ounces [7][9]. - China's gold reserves account for approximately 9.5% of its foreign exchange reserves, indicating potential for continued accumulation [7]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - Retail investors are increasingly participating in the gold market, with trading volumes for micro gold contracts doubling, indicating a historical high in retail engagement [12]. - There is a divergence in fund flows, with significant outflows from gold ETFs, while Shanghai gold futures see substantial capital accumulation [12]. - Institutional views on gold prices vary, with some predicting a rise above $5,000 in the first half of the year, while others highlight the potential for significant sell-offs [12].

此外，美国参议院周四推进一项决议，旨在禁止特朗普总统在未经国会授权的情况下对委内瑞拉采取进 一步军事行动。此外，汇丰银行在周四的报告中预测，受地缘政治风险和债务问题推动，黄金价格可能 在2026年上半年升至每盎司5000美元。 世界黄金协会发布报告称，12月贵金属(包括白银和铂金)的飙升以及大宗商品指数再平衡，可能在短期 内引发市场波动。然而，除了短期波动影响外，黄金预计仍将延续自身的运行逻辑。美国最高法院即将 对关税政策作出的裁决，可能会对美国贸易政策产生重要影响。这对黄金的影响或更为复杂，但可能构 成潜在支撑。 周五(1月9日)亚洲时段，现货黄金价格小幅走弱，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报4463.09美元/盎司，下跌 0.32%，最高触及4483.18美元/盎司，最低下探4452.31美元/盎司。大宗商品指数年度调整带来的技术性 压力，以及美元在亚洲交易时段的走强，共同对金价构成短期压制。投资者在等待晚间美国非农就业数 据公布前调整仓位。 投资者目光已转向即将于1月9日(周五)公布的美国12月非农就业报告。这份数据被视为判断美联储货币 政策走向的关键指标。调查显示，经济学家预计12月新增就业岗位仅6万个，远低于 ...

资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 黄金和白银交易商、投资者正严阵以待，迎接正在进行的年度商品指数再平衡。预计未来几天内，价值 数十亿美元的期货合约将被抛售。花旗集团估计，为满足再平衡要求，约68亿美元的白银期货将被抛 售，而黄金期货的资金流出量也将大致相同。 免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授 权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方 便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。 高盛分析师表示，白银库存持续低迷意味着价格可能对流通高度敏感，这既增加了白银价格的上涨潜 力，也增加了其下跌风险。 纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2026年2月黄金期价8日上涨0.57%，收于每盎司4487.90美 元。 技术层面，2月黄金期货多头下一个上涨目标是突破4584.00美元强劲阻力价位。空头下一个短期 ...