Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the upcoming overseas sales peak for Pop Mart, driven by its IP influence, with participation in major events like the Thanksgiving parade enhancing brand visibility [4] - The cosmetics collection store channel is gradually recovering, with Naturals leading in both overall and domestic rankings, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards self-care products [4] - The growth of emerging consumer goods reflects new consumption concepts among younger generations, emphasizing the importance of understanding these narratives for investment opportunities [4][16] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The new consumption sector saw a weekly increase, with the beauty care index up by 0.50%, retail index up by 3.45%, and social services index up by 3.92% during the week of November 24 to November 28, 2025 [7] Key Industry Data - In October, retail sales for clothing and textiles increased by 6.3%, cosmetics by 9.6%, and gold and silver jewelry by 37.6% [11][18] - The average sales per store in the cosmetics collection channel grew by 1.2%, with customer transactions increasing by 9.4% [4] Investment Analysis Recommendations - Focus on high-quality domestic brands in beauty care, such as Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei, and leading brands in ancient gold jewelry favored by younger consumers, like Laopu Gold and Chaohongji [16] - In the collectible toy sector, attention should be given to companies with strong IP creation and operational experience, such as Pop Mart [16] - For ready-to-drink tea, consider strong brands with extensive market coverage, like Mixue Group and Guming [16]

本周观点 逐步回归平静： 投资逻辑 逐步回归平静。1）12 月美联储降息争议减弱，市场出现显著回暖，流动性和风偏有所回升。Google 发布 Gemini 之后又起 AI 芯片 TPU 逻辑，一方面减弱了对 AI 泡沫的担忧，另外一方面让 AI 产业链逻辑有所延伸，TPU 产业 链相关标的表现强劲。我们对 AI 科技发展的前景持续看好，AI 对生产效率提升的逻辑畅通，短期可能产业过热 或者过度投资，我们关注经营性现金流良好的科技龙头，如美股的 Google、META、微软、阿里、腾讯等，另外持 续关注 AI 应用的落地方向，如物理 AI 等。2）加密货币短期压力难减，区间震荡为主，尽管 12 月美联储降息概 率提升，但是高风险资产对降息信息的讨论过度敏感，加上 DAT、ETF 等中心化持币的负反馈担忧，短期我们谨 慎观察该板块的变化。中长期维度我们对区块链、加密市场保持乐观，对去中心化、跨境支付技术迭代等带来的 变化时刻保持跟踪。3）澳门度假旅游行业我们认为持续配置的价值高，供给和需求的剪刀差逻辑持续兑现，板 块中长期维度受益于降息周期，而未来几个月的景气度在长假期加持和低基数的背景下有望持续上行。4）我们 ...

Group 1: Hong Kong Fire Incident - The fire in Tai Po, Hong Kong has resulted in 128 fatalities and 79 injuries, with an investigation expected to take three to four weeks [7][6][8] - The Hong Kong Independent Commission Against Corruption has established a special task force to investigate potential corruption related to the renovation project, leading to the arrest of 8 individuals [6][8] - The Hong Kong government will lower flags to half-mast from November 29 to December 1 to mourn the victims of the fire [6][8] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock indices have risen for the fifth consecutive trading day, with the Nasdaq up 0.65%, the Dow Jones up 0.61%, and the S&P 500 up 0.54% [4][6] - Major tech stocks saw significant gains, with Intel rising 10%, marking its largest single-day increase since September 18 [4][6] - Chinese concept stocks also performed well, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 0.54% [4][6] Group 3: Commodity Market Updates - International precious metals futures saw significant increases, with COMEX gold futures rising 1.59% to $4256.4 per ounce and COMEX silver futures rising 6.06% to $57.085 per ounce, reaching a historical high [2][4] - LME copper prices surged by 2.5%, reaching approximately $11,210 per ton, also a historical high [2][4] Group 4: Banking Sector Response - Several banks in Hong Kong have pledged financial support for disaster relief and reconstruction efforts following the Tai Po fire, with major banks announcing donations and emergency services for affected customers [8] Group 5: Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is seeking public opinion on a draft announcement for the pilot of commercial real estate investment trusts (REITs) to enhance the quality of the market [10] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has released a draft for public consultation regarding the implementation of supervision measures in the securities and futures market [11] Group 6: Corporate News - Guizhou Moutai has elected Chen Hua as the chairman of its board and announced a share buyback plan with a budget of between 1.5 billion and 3 billion RMB [18] - Wenta Technology has issued a statement regarding the control dispute with Nexperia, urging for constructive dialogue to stabilize the global supply chain [19] - Airbus has announced that approximately 6,000 A320 aircraft require urgent software updates due to safety concerns, leading to flight cancellations by several airlines [20]

Market Overview - US stock indices rose collectively for the fifth consecutive trading day, with the Nasdaq up 0.65%, Dow Jones up 0.61%, and S&P 500 up 0.54% [3] - Major tech stocks saw gains, with Intel rising 10%, marking its largest single-day increase since September 18 [3] - International precious metals futures surged, with COMEX gold futures up 1.59% at $4256.4 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 6.06% at $57.085 per ounce, reaching a historical high [3] Hong Kong Fire Incident - The fire in Tai Po, Hong Kong, has resulted in 128 fatalities and 79 injuries, with an investigation expected to take three to four weeks [7] - The Hong Kong government will lower flags to half-mast from November 29 to December 1 in mourning for the victims [6] - Eight individuals have been arrested by the Hong Kong Independent Commission Against Corruption in connection with the fire, related to potential corruption in the renovation project [6] Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is seeking public opinion on a draft announcement for a pilot program of commercial real estate investment trusts (REITs) to enhance the capital market's service to the real economy [9] - The CSRC has also released a draft for the implementation measures of securities and futures market supervision, aiming to improve regulatory practices [10] - New regulations for live-streaming e-commerce are set to be introduced to define responsibilities and protect consumer rights [11] Corporate Announcements - Guizhou Moutai has elected Chen Hua as the chairman of its board and announced a share buyback plan of up to RMB 30 billion [19][20] - Wenta Technology has issued a statement regarding the control dispute with Nexperia, urging for constructive dialogue to stabilize the global supply chain [21] - Airbus announced that approximately 6,000 A320 aircraft require urgent software updates due to safety concerns, leading to operational delays for several airlines [22] Industry Insights - Research institutions predict a 50% increase in storage chip prices due to rising demand from AI infrastructure [23] - Xiaomi's CEO responded to energy consumption evaluations of their vehicles, indicating ongoing efforts to improve efficiency [24] - ST Lifang is facing delisting procedures due to significant financial fraud, having inflated revenues by RMB 638 million [26] Market Reactions - Meituan's CEO commented on the external delivery price war, indicating a shift in investment strategy based on market competition [28] - Apple may face fines up to $38 billion due to alleged anti-competitive practices in India, which could impact its service revenue growth [29][30]

Market Performance - A-shares opened lower but rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.21% to close at 3883.46 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.72%, closing at 12967.66 points [2] - The ChiNext Index rose by 0.71%, ending at 3052.87 points [3] - The CSI 300 Index saw a modest gain of 0.23%, closing at 4525.90 points [4] - The STAR 50 Index experienced a notable increase of 1.14%, closing at 1325.59 points [5] - The CSI 500 Index rose by 0.89%, closing at 7012.95 points [6] - The CSI 1000 Index increased by 0.75%, closing at 7311.73 points [7] Sector Performance - The titanium dioxide, lithium mining, Hainan Free Trade Zone, and commercial aerospace sectors led the gains [1] - The pharmaceutical, banking, gaming, and tourism sectors experienced declines [1] - Notable stocks included Qian Zhao Guangdian, which hit the daily limit, and Hai Xin Food, which saw significant gains [1] Trading Volume - The total trading volume for the morning session reached 983.7 billion [1] - Over 3500 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets were in the green [1] Debt Market - Vanke's bonds saw significant fluctuations, with a 20 billion yuan bond extension adding uncertainty to its future debt repayment outlook [13] - Some of Vanke's domestic bonds rebounded sharply, with "22 Vanke 02" rising by 120% and "21 Vanke 06" increasing by 107.8% [13] Analyst Insights - JPMorgan strategists indicated a higher probability of significant gains in the Chinese stock market next year compared to risks of a major downturn, upgrading A-shares to "overweight" [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the new consumption industry [3] Core Insights - New consumption is characterized by new demand from emerging consumer groups like Generation Z and a shift from leverage-driven consumption to income-driven consumption among older demographics [5][17] - The supply side benefits from China's robust manufacturing capabilities and the internet's ability to reshape business models and efficiency [5][17] - The report highlights two main investment opportunities: aggressive new consumption sectors such as trendy toys and gold jewelry, and defensive cyclical sectors like liquor and travel [5][4] Summary by Sections New Consumption: What is New Consumption? - New consumption has gained traction in recent years, initially a term from the primary market, now widely recognized [17] - It encompasses both new demand from younger consumers and a shift in older consumers' preferences towards more rational spending [17][21] New Demand: Stars Gather to Form Light - Emotional consumption and the rise of national trends are significant drivers, with luxury attributes associated with products [46] - The report identifies key sectors: IP toys, gold jewelry, and new tea drinks, which align with current consumer trends [5][4] New Supply: Old Trees Sprout New Buds - The report emphasizes that industries with easier pathways develop first, while more challenging sectors follow as technology and information improve [33] - It discusses the efficiency gains in retail and service sectors through standardization and technological advancements [33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two types of opportunities: aggressive new consumption sectors (e.g., trendy toys, gold jewelry) and defensive cyclical sectors (e.g., liquor, travel) [5][4] - Specific companies to watch include Pop Mart, Mijia, and various tea brands [5][4] Emotional Consumption and National Trends - Generation Z's emotional consumption is highlighted, with a significant portion willing to pay for emotional value [21][23] - The report notes the increasing acceptance of Chinese brands among younger consumers, contrasting with older generations' preferences [21][22] Gold Jewelry Market - The gold jewelry market is projected to grow significantly, with ancient gold jewelry gaining popularity due to its cultural significance [86][87] - The market size for ancient gold jewelry is expected to reach 4,214 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 21.8% [86][87] IP Toy Market - The report outlines the rapid growth of the IP toy market, with a projected market size of 1,741 billion by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 13.6% [69][70] - The emotional value associated with IP toys is a key driver of consumer interest and market expansion [78][79]

Group 1: Market Performance - The market experienced a contraction with the consumption ETF (159928) rebounding from a low, closing in the green with a trading volume of nearly 400 million yuan [1] - The consumption ETF (159928) has attracted a total of 340 million yuan in the last 20 days, with its latest scale exceeding 21.3 billion yuan, leading its peers significantly [1] - In the Hong Kong market, the consumption 50 ETF (159268) saw a slight decline of 0.61%, with a trading volume exceeding 37 million yuan, and has accumulated over 85 million yuan in the last 20 days [4] Group 2: Policy and Economic Outlook - On November 16, six ministries issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, aiming for significant improvements by 2027 [10] - The plan emphasizes the importance of meeting diverse consumer needs, particularly for different demographics such as children, students, and the elderly [11] - The plan also highlights the creation of new consumption scenarios and business formats, supported by a favorable development environment [11] Group 3: Alcohol Industry Insights - The price of Moutai has dropped to a new low, attributed to increased supply and a general decline in alcohol consumption [7] - Guizhou Moutai's Q3 revenue was 39.064 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.56%, marking the lowest net profit growth rate in nearly a decade [7] - Analysts predict that the liquor industry is in an adjustment phase but is gradually approaching a bottoming out, with expectations for a slight recovery in valuations as liquidity and policy expectations improve [8] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The consumption ETF (159928) is currently trading at a TTM P/E ratio of 20.01, which is at the 5.06% percentile of the past decade, indicating high valuation attractiveness [9] - The top ten constituent stocks of the consumption ETF account for over 68.3% of its weight, with significant representation from leading liquor companies and major agricultural firms [12]

Core Viewpoint - The secondary market is closely monitoring the movements of new tea beverage giants, with Mixue Group's stock closing at HKD 413 per share on November 27, resulting in a market capitalization of HKD 156.8 billion. This performance is attributed to the company's low-key testing of new business growth points, including a "breakfast plan" currently trialed in select cities [1][3]. Group 1: Breakfast Strategy - The company has initiated a low-price strategy targeting the breakfast consumption scene, with a recent survey on consumer preferences for breakfast items like soy milk and coffee. A "breakfast series" has been launched in certain areas, featuring products priced at RMB 5 [3]. - The breakfast product lineup includes four types of milk, such as "breakfast coconut milk," with no large-scale promotional plans currently in place. This is not the first attempt by the brand to expand into the morning consumption period, as previous tests included a "coffee + baking" combo sold at RMB 10 [3]. Group 2: Store Network and Financial Performance - The new business trials are supported by the company's extensive offline network and solid financial data, with a reported revenue of RMB 14.87 billion for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, and a net profit of RMB 2.72 billion, up 44.1% [4]. - As of June 30, 2025, Mixue Group has expanded its global store count to 53,014, while its coffee business, Luckin Coffee, has surpassed 10,000 stores, positioning itself as a significant player in the domestic coffee chain market [4]. Group 3: Multi-Category Expansion and Operational Efficiency - In addition to breakfast and coffee, the company is extending its product range through acquisitions, having invested approximately RMB 297 million to acquire a 53% stake in Fresh Beer Fulu, thereby entering the fresh beer market [5]. - The company's profitability remains relatively strong within the industry, with a net profit margin of 18.27% for the first half of 2025, outperforming competitors like Tea Baidao and Bawang Tea Ji. The low-price breakfast initiative is seen as a strategy to leverage existing supply chain advantages and enhance single-store value [5].

Core Insights - The coffee market in China is experiencing a price war initiated by brands like Luckin Coffee and Kudi, with prices dropping significantly to attract consumers [3][6] - Luckin Coffee has recently surpassed 10,000 stores globally, becoming the third domestic coffee chain to achieve this milestone, following Luckin and Kudi [3][4] - The entry of new players like JD's Qixian Coffee and discount supermarket Haotemai is intensifying the competition in the low-price coffee segment [4][5] Price Competition - Kudi Coffee started the price war in 2023 with a price point of 9.9 yuan, followed by Luckin Coffee lowering prices to 6.6 yuan, leading to a significant shift towards affordable coffee options [3][6] - The average price of coffee is approaching cost levels, raising concerns about quality and profitability for brands [3][6] - The competitive landscape is shifting towards everyday consumption, with brands needing to optimize supply chains and reduce operational costs to maintain low prices [6][8] Market Expansion - Luckin Coffee has rapidly expanded its store count, particularly in first-tier cities, reaching over 1,000 stores in these markets [4][5] - Kudi Coffee has also seen significant growth, with over 18,000 stores globally, making it the second-largest domestic coffee chain [4][5] - The overall coffee market in China is still considered to have substantial growth potential, with expectations of a consumption growth rate exceeding 20% [5] Profitability Concerns - The cost structure of a cup of coffee includes raw materials, rent, labor, and utilities, with the raw material cost estimated at around 5.5 yuan per cup [6][7] - Kudi Coffee maintains a long-term strategy of pricing all products at 9.9 yuan while ensuring product quality and profitability for franchisees [7] - Luckin Coffee reported a decline in net profit despite a 50% increase in net revenue, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability amid aggressive pricing [7] Supply Chain Strategies - The trend towards affordable coffee is pushing brands to enhance supply chain efficiency and adopt digital or automated operations to reduce costs [8] - Luckin Coffee has established a comprehensive supply chain, including direct sourcing of coffee beans and self-built logistics systems [8][9] - Kudi Coffee is also focusing on securing stable supplies of coffee beans through strategic partnerships with producers in countries like Rwanda and Colombia [9]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the tea beverage chain brand Mixue Ice City is quietly entering the breakfast market, which has sparked widespread discussion in the industry [1][3] - Mixue Ice City has conducted a consumer survey regarding breakfast preferences through its corporate WeChat group, indicating a strategic move into the breakfast segment [1] - The breakfast initiative has already moved from survey to practice, with new breakfast options available in some cities through the official app, including products priced at 5 yuan [1] Group 2 - Prior to entering the breakfast market, Mixue Group has been actively diversifying, including a recent acquisition of 53% of "Fresh Beer Fu Lu Jia" for 297 million yuan, expanding into the fresh beer sector [3] - The company's diversification efforts are supported by strong financial performance, with a reported revenue of 14.87 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, and a net profit of 2.72 billion yuan, up 44.1% [3] - As of June 30, 2025, Mixue Group has expanded its global store count to 53,014, with an increase of 9,796 stores compared to the same period last year, covering all provincial-level administrative regions in China and 12 overseas countries and regions [3]