2025 年 10 月 12 日 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 册 寂寞诗 顾铮 A0230125070004 quzhenq@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 (8621)23297818× quzheng@swsresearch.com 住建部明确"好房子"五项工作，高质量 地开展好城市更新 ―地产及物管行业周报（2025/10/04-2025/10/10） 地产行业数据：一二手房成交跌幅扩大，成交推盘比回升。上周(10.4-10.10)34 个重点 城市新房合计成交 98 万平米，环比-61.3%，其中，一二线环比-63.1%，三四线环比- 18.7%。10 月(10.1-10.10)34 城一手房成交同比-33.5%，较 9 月同期环比-56%。其 中，一二线同比-32.2%，三四线同比-45.3%，分别较 9 月同期环比-56.6%和-48.8%。 上周 13 城二手房合计成交 48.7 万平米，环比-32%; 10 月累计成交同比-18.8%, 较 9 月同期环比-62.9%。库存方面，上周 15 城合计推盘 20 万平 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][27]. Core Insights - The "Good House" policy is expected to create new pathways for growth, leading to a rebound in core cities and introducing new products, pricing, and business models [2][27]. - The report highlights a significant decline in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with new home sales in 34 key cities dropping by 61.3% week-on-week [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality urban renewal and effective city governance as outlined by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development [2][27]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 980,000 square meters, down 61.3% week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 63.1% decline [2][3]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in October are down 33.5% compared to the same period last year [2][5]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties in 15 cities stands at 90.27 million square meters, with a slight decrease of 0.2% [2][19]. Policy and News Tracking - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has outlined five key areas for the "Good House" initiative, focusing on standards, design, materials, construction, and operation [2][27]. - Local policies include Guangzhou's measures to optimize land use and Longchun's reduction of down payment ratios for housing loans [2][29]. Company Dynamics - Poly Developments reported a 25.1% decrease in sales volume for the first nine months of the year, totaling 10.104 million square meters [2][33]. - New City Holdings issued offshore bonds worth $160 million at a rate of 11.9% [2][33]. Sector Performance Review - The SW Real Estate Index fell by 0.82%, underperforming the broader market, which saw the CSI 300 Index decline by 0.51% [2][38]. - The report identifies top-performing real estate stocks, including Hefei Urban Construction and Zhongrun Resources, while noting significant declines in others like Shenzhen Deep Housing [2][40].

Core Insights - The offshore bond market for Chinese entities showed stable issuance in the primary market and strong performance in the secondary market during the third quarter of 2025 [1][2] Primary Market Performance - In Q3 2025, the total issuance of offshore bonds reached $774 billion, with a net financing of $45.77 billion, a significant recovery from the previous quarter's -$314.82 billion [2] - Excluding real estate sector defaults, the actual new issuance was $639 billion from 502 bonds [2] - The issuance of local government bonds totaled 96 bonds amounting to $143 billion, while financial bonds accounted for 285 bonds totaling $165 billion [2] - The real estate sector saw a continued decline in new financing, with only 8 bonds issued for a total of approximately $10 billion [2] - The issuance included 106 offshore RMB bonds, 282 USD bonds, 87 HKD bonds, 22 EUR bonds, and 5 bonds in other currencies [2] Issuance Methods - The majority of bonds were directly issued, totaling 319, while 82 were guaranteed issues [3] - The trend indicates a diversification in the types of issuers entering the offshore bond market [3] Secondary Market Performance - By the end of Q3 2025, the Markit iBoxx Asian USD bond index for Chinese entities showed an increase, with the investment-grade index rising by 0.55% [4][6] - The real estate bond index increased by 0.56%, while the local government bond index rose by 0.50% [6] Debt Repayment Pressure - The overall repayment pressure for offshore bonds is expected to ease in Q4 2025, with total repayments decreasing by $130.53 billion compared to Q3 [7] - The repayment amounts for October, November, and December are projected at $91.81 billion, $117.72 billion, and $151.37 billion, respectively [7] Market Outlook - The restructuring of debts by several real estate companies has led to a decline in credit risk premiums, resulting in a narrowing of yield spreads for investment-grade and high-yield USD bonds [9] - The expansion of the "Southbound Trading" program is anticipated to enhance the market capacity and liquidity of Chinese offshore bonds [9]

Core Insights - The investigation into the financial transactions between New城控股 and New城悦服务 has revealed significant undisclosed related-party transactions amounting to 6.97 billion yuan, which were previously misreported as "not applicable" in financial statements [2][4][6] - The transactions were orchestrated by former executive director Yang Bo, who bypassed regulatory approval processes to address New城控股's short-term funding needs [2][7] - New城悦服务 has dismissed Yang Bo and is enhancing internal controls following the investigation's findings [3][7] Financial Transactions - New城控股 corrected its financial statements to reflect related-party borrowings of 1.8 billion yuan in 2023 and 5.17 billion yuan in 2024, totaling 6.97 billion yuan in transactions [2][4][6] - The independent audit revealed discrepancies in bank transaction records, with a total of 2.27 billion yuan in undisclosed related-party transactions identified [4][5] - The highest outstanding amounts during the year were 700 million yuan and 800 million yuan for 2023 and 2024, respectively, but all funds were repaid by year-end [6] Corporate Governance - The investigation was initiated by New城悦服务's independent committee and involved extensive data collection and interviews with key personnel [5] - The findings indicated that only Yang Bo was involved in the unauthorized transactions, while other executives were not implicated [7] - New城悦服务 has committed to strengthening its internal controls to prevent future occurrences of similar issues [7] Financial Pressure on New城控股 - New城控股 faces significant financial pressure, with 13.55 billion yuan in debts maturing within a year and a funding gap of 4.367 billion yuan [8][12] - Approximately 60% of New城悦服务's property management revenue is derived from New城控股, highlighting the dependency between the two companies [9][10] - As of June, New城控股 had a total interest-bearing debt of 52.276 billion yuan, with only 9.183 billion yuan in cash available, indicating a liquidity challenge [12] Future Outlook - New城控股 has been actively pursuing various financing options, including public REITs and asset-backed securities, to manage its debt obligations [13] - The company issued a new bond of 160 million USD at an interest rate of 11.88% to refinance its maturing offshore debt [14] - The recent exposure of related-party transactions raises concerns about New城控股's ability to maintain its zero-default record and secure future funding from related entities [15]

Group 1: Company Performance - Jinli Permanent Magnet expects a net profit of 505 million to 550 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 157% to 179% [1] - Guangdong Mingzhu anticipates a net profit of 215 million to 263 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 858.45% to 1,071.44% [2] - Wide Special Materials forecasts a net profit of approximately 248 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a year-on-year increase of around 213.92% [6] Group 2: Product Development and Innovations - Jinli Permanent Magnet has established a division for embodied robot motor rotors, with small batch deliveries of related products expected in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - Ganfeng Lithium has a complete integrated layout for solid-state batteries and has developed key components, including high-energy density batteries with a range of 320Wh/kg to 550Wh/kg [2] - Xingqi Eye Medicine received clinical trial approval for SQ-129, a new drug for treating diabetic macular edema, with no similar products approved domestically or internationally [4] Group 3: Strategic Investments and Projects - Tianhe Magnetic Materials plans to invest 850 million yuan in high-performance rare earth permanent magnet projects, with total investment expected to reach 900 million yuan [7] - Time Space Technology is planning to acquire control of Shenzhen Jiahe Jingwei Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. through a combination of share issuance and cash payment [9] - The company has initiated a project to enhance production capacity and efficiency in offshore wind power casting, contributing to profitability [6]

北京商报讯（记者 王寅浩 李晗）10月9日，新城控股（601155）发布公告称，公司境外子公司NEW METRO GLOBAL LIMITED于10月2日完成发行1.6亿美元无抵押固定利率债券，期限2年，票面年息 11.88%，每半年支付一次。 根据公告，债券募集资金主要用于偿还公司一年内到期的境外中长期债务。债券已于10月1日在新加坡 证券交易所上市。 ...

证券代码：601155 证券简称：新城控股 编号：2025-046 新城控股集团股份有限公司 关于境外子公司发行境外美元债券的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 2025年5月26日，新城控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）召开公司 2024年年度股东大会，审议通过了《关于公司开展直接融资工作的议案》，授权公 司（含控股子公司）在不超过人民币200亿元（含境外等值外币）的规模下在境内 外开展直接融资工作，并根据《股票上市规则》、《公司章程》等的相关规定为子 公司提供相应担保，详见《公司2024年年度股东大会决议公告》（编号：2025- 033）。公司控股股东富域发展集团有限公司已于2025年4月16日收到国家发展和改 革委员会出具的《企业借用外债备案登记证明》（编号为"发改办外债〔2025〕 196号"），载明公司境外特殊目的子公司可于境外发行中长期美元债券。 2025年10月2日，公司境外子公司NEW METRO GLOBAL LIMITED（以下简 称"新城環球"）完成在境外发行总额为1.60亿美元的 ...

Core Viewpoint - New Metro Global Limited, a subsidiary of the company, successfully issued USD 160 million in unsecured fixed-rate bonds with a 2-year maturity and an annual interest rate of 11.88% [1] Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - The bond issuance was completed on October 2, with a total amount of USD 160 million [1] - The bonds have a maturity period of 2 years and pay interest semi-annually [1] - The bonds are rated B- by Standard & Poor's [1] Group 2: Use of Proceeds - The funds raised from the bond issuance will primarily be used to repay the company's overseas medium to long-term debts that are due within one year [1] Group 3: Guarantee and Listing - The company and its indirect controlling shareholder, New City Development, provide unconditional and irrevocable joint liability guarantees for the bonds [1] - The bonds were listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange on October 1 [1]

Core Insights - The real estate development sector experienced a decline of 1.34% on October 9, with Shen Shen Fang A leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3933.97, up 1.32%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13725.56, up 1.47% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the real estate sector included: - Daming City (600094) with a closing price of 4.86, up 8.48% on a trading volume of 757,500 shares and a turnover of 368 million [1] - Hefei Urban Construction (002208) closed at 8.37, up 7.31% with a trading volume of 1,394,600 shares and a turnover of 1.173 billion [1] - Wolong New Energy (600173) closed at 9.45, up 5.94% with a trading volume of 897,200 shares and a turnover of 828 million [1] - Major decliners included: - Shen Shen Fang A (000029) with a closing price of 30.22, down 10.01% on a trading volume of 112,700 shares and a turnover of 348 million [2] - Zhangjiang Changke (600895) closed at 49.46, down 9.99% with a trading volume of 1,475,800 shares and a turnover of 741.5 million [2] - New Town Holdings (601155) closed at 15.32, down 5.72% with a trading volume of 357,200 shares and a turnover of 54.9 million [2] Capital Flow - The real estate development sector saw a net outflow of 882 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 49.1 million [2] - Key stocks with significant capital flow included: - Wolong New Energy (600173) with a net inflow of 1.19 billion from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 1.05 billion from retail investors [3] - Wanfang Development (600246) had a net inflow of 89.19 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 75.61 million from retail investors [3] - Hefei Urban Construction (002208) saw a net inflow of 82.03 million from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 16.89 million from retail investors [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened higher on October 9, with all three major indices rising, and the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3900 points for the first time in 10 years [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 26,532 billion yuan, an increase of 4,718 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a significant surge, with precious metals, rare earths, and copper stocks hitting the daily limit [2] - The semiconductor sector saw a notable decline in the afternoon, with stocks like SMIC dropping over 9% [2] - Gold stocks rose sharply due to soaring international gold prices, with over 20 stocks hitting the daily limit or rising more than 10% [4] - The real estate sector faced significant declines, with several stocks hitting the daily limit or dropping over 4% [5][6] Stock Movement - A total of 140 stocks in the markets saw gains of over 9%, while 32 stocks experienced declines of over 9% [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 1.32% at 3933.97 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.73% to 3261.82 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.47% to 13725.56 points [2] Future Outlook - Analysts from Zhongjin Company suggest that the A-share market is likely to maintain a steady performance, supported by positive industrial profit growth and upcoming policy expectations [7] - Huaxi Securities believes that the current market has completed a "bear to bull" transition, indicating that the market is only in the mid-stage of the current rally [8] - Overall, the market is expected to continue its upward trend in October, with many industries projected to see a rebound in profit growth due to low base effects from the previous year [8]