2025 年 5 月 6 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】非农暂时稳定，缓和市场衰退担忧——2025 年 4 月美国非农数据点评 2025 年 4 月美国新增就业回落，但高于市场预期。从结构看，关税扰动下零售业、 休闲酒店业就业转弱，显示美国经济承压，4 月运输和仓储行业新增就业大幅回升， 部分对冲了关税对就业数据的影响。尽管美国经济承压，但高于预期的非农数据减弱 了市场对美国经济衰退的担忧，美联储或保持更多耐心。 【宏观】关税滞胀效应显现，美国经济增速转负——2025 年一季度美国经济数据点 评 美国一季度 GDP 环比增速转负，消费环比增速回落，显示关税扰动下美国经济明显 承压，库存与出口的变化也同样反映了关税冲击。从降息角度来看，美国经济增速转 负，但物价指数回升，"滞"与"胀"组合放大美联储决策压力，美联储降息路径或 需依赖 4 月经济数据。 【金工】基金抱团减弱，市场情绪降温——金融工程量化月报 20250503 截至 2025 年 4 月 30 日，沪深 300 指数上涨家数占比指标近一个月环比上月下降， 上涨家数占比指标低于 60%，市场情绪有所降温；从动量情绪指标走势来看 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025 年 05 月 06 日 $$\overline{{{\prod_{\mathrm{DE}}}}}\frac{\bigtriangleup}{\bigtriangleup}\frac{\bigtriangleup}{\bigtriangleup}\frac{\bigtriangleup\mathrm{bd}}{\bigtriangleup}$$ 制作：产品中心 重点推荐 《策略|五一假期大事与大类资产梳理——十五五计划正在酝酿中》 1、中共中央政治局再度就人工智能进行集体学习。中共中央总书记习近 平在主持学习时强调，面对新一代人工智能技术快速演进的新形势，要充 分发挥新型举国体制优势，坚持自立自强，突出应用导向，推动我国人工 智能朝着有益、安全、公平方向健康有序发展。2、美国今年第一季度经 济萎缩 0.3%。美国商务部当地时间 4 月 30 日公布的首次预估数据显示， 今年第一季度美国实际国内生产总值(GDP)按年率计算萎缩 0.3%，是自 2022 年第一季度以来首次出现下滑。3、大类资产轮动展望：政治局会议 定调强化底线思维，充分备足预案，根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策， 加强 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the positive economic outlook in China, with the central government emphasizing coordinated macro policies to boost confidence and promote high-quality development [1][22][23] - The focus on artificial intelligence is reiterated, with the government aiming to leverage its advantages to ensure safe and beneficial development in this sector [1][22] - The report anticipates a recovery in the military industry, driven by geopolitical tensions and increased allocations from active funds, particularly in the military electronics sector [3][9] Group 2 - The pet food market is experiencing significant growth, with the urban pet consumption market reaching 300.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.5% year-on-year increase [5][8] - Online sales channels are dominating the pet food market, with 80% of pet owners purchasing main food through traditional online platforms, and Douyin's pet category seeing a 65% year-on-year growth [5][8] - The report identifies a shift in consumer behavior towards premium pet products, driven by younger pet owners who are willing to spend more on their pets [5][8] Group 3 - The semiconductor testing equipment sector is showing strong demand recovery, with the company reporting a 45.21% year-on-year revenue increase in Q1 2025 [9] - The company is expanding its international market presence, with a new production center in Malaysia aimed at enhancing service capabilities [9] - The military aviation sector is also highlighted, with a significant increase in revenue from training aircraft, reflecting a growing demand both domestically and internationally [9][10] Group 4 - The home appliance sector is benefiting from strong overseas demand, with a 21.68% year-on-year increase in export revenue, while domestic sales are under pressure [10][11] - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in domestic sales due to low base effects, despite current challenges [10][11] - The report projects a positive outlook for the company, with anticipated revenue growth driven by international markets [10][11] Group 5 - The energy sector is experiencing stable performance, with a reported 15.62% year-on-year revenue increase in 2024, and a focus on expanding natural gas infrastructure [17][18] - The company is actively investing in pipeline construction to enhance its distribution capabilities, which is expected to support future growth [17][18] - The report indicates a strong commitment to shareholder returns, with a dividend payout ratio of 69.12% in 2024 [17][18]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue was 900 million yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 10.2% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 64.1% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 110 million yuan, down 25.95% year-over-year and 65.42% quarter-over-quarter [1] - The company's gross profit margin in Q1 was 40.45%, a decrease of 1.03 percentage points year-over-year, while the net profit margin was 12.95%, down 2.82 percentage points year-over-year [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The market demand remains weak, with a reported 14.3% year-over-year decline in housing completion area according to the National Bureau of Statistics [1] - The company's terminal retail pipe sales continue to be under pressure due to the overall market conditions [1] Group 3: Strategic Focus and Brand Development - The company is focusing on its core pipeline business while expanding into waterproofing and water purification, gradually building a comprehensive water system product line [2] - The company aims to enhance its brand image by hiring Liu Shishi as the spokesperson for its water ecology brand and launching the "Elephant Weisen" visual identity [2] Group 4: Dividend Policy and Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5 yuan per 10 shares in 2024, totaling 786 million yuan, along with an interim dividend of 1 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 157 million yuan [2] - Cumulatively, the company will distribute 943 million yuan in dividends in 2024, representing 99% of its net profit attributable to the parent company, with a current dividend yield of approximately 4.8% [2] Group 5: Investment Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to the parent company of 1.2 billion yuan, 1.43 billion yuan, and 1.55 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 16, 14, and 13 times [3] - The company maintains a strong operational foundation through continuous investment in brand and channel development, which is expected to help it accumulate strength in a challenging environment [3]

收入同比下滑，毛利率承压。25 年3 月，我国商品房销售面积11123 万平方米，同比-0.88%。自24 年4 月起，商品房单月销售面积虽同比降幅整体呈收窄态势，但仍未转正。持续萎缩的下游市场给建材企业 经营带来压力，并持续至今。25 年Q1 公司实现收入8.95 亿元，同比-10.20%。收入下降对规模效应的 发挥带来一定影响，25Q1公司毛利率40.45%，同比-1.03pct。 事件：公司发布2025 年一季报，报告期内，公司实现收入8.95 亿元，同比-10.20%；归母净利润1.14 亿 元，同比-25.95%；扣非归母净利润1.14 亿元，同比-19.42%。 实施大额分红，积极回报股东。2024 年中期公司向全体股东每10 股派发现金红利1.00 元（含税），共 计派发1.57 亿元，并于2024 年9 月26 日实施完毕。2024 年公司拟向全体股东每10 股派发现金红利5.00 元（含税），共计派发7.86 亿元。公司2024年度累计现金分红总额为9.43 亿元，占本年度归属于上市公 司股东净利润的99.00%。 公司敢于高额分红的底气在于主业为公司提供了稳定的现金流、低负债率以及极强的偿 ...

Group 1: Company Performance - Company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 895 million, a year-on-year decrease of 10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 114 million, down 26% year-on-year, with non-recurring net profit also down 19% to 114 million, falling short of expectations due to pressure in the retail segment [1] - Revenue pressure is evident with a year-on-year decline of 10% in Q1 2025, worsening from a 5% decline in Q4 2024, attributed to significant market demand pressure and challenges in the retail segment [1] - Gross margin decreased by 1 percentage point year-on-year to 40.5%, leading to a gross profit decline of 12.5% to 352 million [1] - Operating expenses decreased, but interest income reduction led to an increase in expense ratio, with sales expenses down 11% year-on-year, and management/R&D expenses down 5% and 10% respectively, while financial interest income decreased by 13.12 million, resulting in a year-on-year increase in expense ratio by 1.6 percentage points to 25% [1] - Investment income decreased significantly, with Q1 2025 showing a loss of 5.56 million compared to a gain of 28.4 million in the same period last year, leading to a 26% year-on-year decline in operating profit to 136 million [1] Group 2: Cash Flow and Financial Health - Cash flow remains strong, with cash flow from operations increasing by 2.61 million year-on-year to 8.5 million, and cash conversion ratio improving by 15 percentage points to 133% [1] - Company maintains a healthy financial position with a net cash status and a low debt-to-asset ratio of only 19% [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The company is expected to face continued demand pressure in 2025, particularly in the home decoration pipeline, with price competition impacting the high gross margin model [2] - Despite short-term disturbances from expenses, investment income, and impairments, the company is positioned to adapt to the future stock building era through enhanced service capabilities and new business developments, maintaining stable core profits [2] - As a high-dividend company, it is expected to continue providing quality returns to the market [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Profit forecasts remain unchanged, with the current stock price corresponding to 20x and 18x P/E for 2025 and 2026 respectively; the company maintains an outperform rating and a target price of 14, implying a 14% upside potential based on 23x and 21x P/E for 2025 and 2026 [3]

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3288 | -0.2 | -1.8 | -0.09 | | | | | 8 | | | 深证综指 | 1898 | -0.9 | -6.3 | -0.68 | | 风格指数 | 昨日表现 | 1 个月表现 | 6 个月表 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （％） | （％） | 现（％） | | 大盘指数 | -0.06 | -3.09 | -3.93 | | 中盘指数 | -0.6 | -6.26 | -8.52 | | 小盘指数 | -0.85 | -6.2 | -2.74 | | 行业涨幅 | 昨日涨 | 1 个月涨 | 6 个月涨 | | 普钢Ⅱ | 1.64 | -3.29 | 2.87 | | 游戏Ⅱ | 1.3 | -4.5 | 2.38 | | 城商行Ⅱ | 1.24 | 3.41 | 10.11 | | 白色家电 | 1.07 | -3.32 | -4.88 | | 农商 ...

Group 1 - The resilience of Chinese assets has attracted significant attention from foreign institutions, with 236 A-share companies being investigated by foreign entities since April [1] - The top ten companies receiving the most foreign institution inquiries include Huaming Equipment, Hongfa Technology, Luxshare Precision, Anker Innovation, and others, focusing on sectors such as consumer electronics, pet economy, and technology innovation [1] - Notable foreign institutions conducting research include Morgan Stanley, Franklin Templeton, and UBS Asset Management, indicating strong interest in companies like Huaming Equipment and Hongfa Technology [1][2] Group 2 - The domestic demand sector has gained market attention, with companies like Guibao Pet and Baiya Co. experiencing significant stock price increases since April [1] - In the technology sector, companies such as Luxshare Precision and Anker Innovation have also been the focus of over ten foreign institution inquiries, highlighting their growth potential [2] - Blue Glass Technology has expanded into new fields such as humanoid robots and AI glasses, indicating diversification beyond traditional consumer electronics [2] Group 3 - Many foreign institutions are optimistic about Chinese assets, with Franklin Templeton noting that A-shares have a lower dependency on foreign investment compared to other Asian markets, enhancing market resilience [3] - The low holding ratio of overseas investors in Chinese stocks suggests potential for growth, with expectations of positive surprises in the Chinese economy and corporate performance [3] - Morgan Stanley emphasizes the stability of China's economic and policy environment, suggesting that global investors will reassess investment opportunities in Chinese assets [3]

金十数据4月28日讯，数据显示，今年4月份以来，已有236家A股公司接受外资机构调研。其中，接受 外资机构调研次数居前十的公司分别为：华明装备、宏发股份、立讯精密、安克创新、蓝晓科技、乖宝 宠物、水晶光电、澜起科技、伟星新材、蓝思科技，涉及出海板块，与内需相关的消费电子、宠物经 济，以及与科技创新相关的人形机器人、芯片、电气设备等板块。内需板块近期受到市场关注。4月至 今，调研乖宝宠物、洽洽食品、苏泊尔、百亚股份、海大集团、佩蒂股份等公司的外资机构家数从32家 到6家不等。其中，百亚股份、乖宝宠物4月以来股价涨幅显著。乖宝宠物4月至今接受了包括富达投 资、千禧年基金、安联投资、Point72等32家外资机构调研，机构同样还关注公司出口业务情况。 （中 证金牛座） 4月以来已有236家A股公司接受外资机构调研 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is facing increasing pressure in the short term, but there are expectations for domestic demand policies to take effect [5] - The company reported a revenue of 895 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.20%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 114 million yuan, down 25.95% year-on-year [7] - The company is positioned as a leading retailer in the plastic pipe sector, benefiting from domestic demand policies and high dividend yields, which enhance its defensive attributes [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue forecast for 2023 is 6,378 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 8.27%, and is expected to recover to 6,612 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 5.51% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1,000 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 4.92% [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.63 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.53 [6] Market Performance - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2025 was 40.45%, a decrease of 1.03 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to weak market demand and intensified competition [7] - Financial expenses increased significantly, with a growth of 84.16% year-on-year, mainly due to a decline in interest income [7] - Cash flow from operating activities improved significantly, with a net cash flow increase of 260 million yuan year-on-year, attributed to reduced raw material purchases [7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from infrastructure investments and an increase in market share in the retail sector, providing a performance safety net [7] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 1,000 million, 1,102 million, and 1,219 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.63, 0.69, and 0.77 yuan [7] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 20, 18, and 16 for 2025-2027, indicating potential for value accumulation [7]