深圳商报·读创客户端首席记者 谢惠茜 工商银行近日发布的一则公告，引发市场广泛关注。公告显示，工商银行将于1月12日起对个人客户积存金业务风险承受能力等级进行调 整，成为今年以来首家调整该门槛的国有大行。 工行率先上调风险评测等级准入 工商银行发布的《关于个人客户积存金业务调整风险测评等级准入要求的公告》显示，"自2026年1月12日起，个人客户办理积存金业务的 开户、主动积存或新增定投计划（即'定期积存计划'）的，需通过工商银行营业网点、网上银行或中国工商银行APP等渠道，按我行统一 的风险测评问卷进行风险承受能力评估、取得C3-平衡型及以上的评估结果（已有前述评估结果且在有效期内的无需重测）并签订积存金 风险揭示书（已签署风险揭示书的无需重签）。已开立积存金账户的个人客户办理积存金的赎回与兑换，有效期内定投计划的执行、修改 和终止，积存金账户的注销等操作的，不受前述条件的限制。" 这意味着，当前多家主流银行对积存金业务的风险评级都在中风险及以上，甚至有某国有大行银行要求最高风险等级才能进行相关投资。 后续或有更多银行跟进调整 "此次工商银行将积存金业务风险准入等级从C1保守型上调至C3平衡型，是一次基于市 ...

Market Performance - The city commercial bank sector experienced a slight increase of 0.0% on January 7, with Hangzhou Bank leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4085.77, up 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14030.56, up 0.06% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Hangzhou Bank (600926) closed at 15.80, with a rise of 1.61% and a trading volume of 817,400 shares [1] - Ningbo Bank (002142) closed at 29.12, up 0.83%, with a trading volume of 411,100 shares [1] - Other notable performances include Jiangsu Bank (601963) at 10.64 (+0.38%) and Shanghai Bank (601229) at 9.96 (+0.30%) [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The city commercial bank sector saw a net outflow of 170 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 188 million yuan [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors withdrawing funds while retail investors increased their positions [2] Detailed Capital Flow by Bank - Jiangsu Bank had a net inflow of 123 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 27 million yuan [3] - Hangzhou Bank experienced a net inflow of 84 million yuan from institutional investors, but retail investors had a significant outflow of 132 million yuan [3] - Chengdu Bank recorded a net inflow of 55 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors also experiencing a net outflow [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the banking sector [4][5]. Core Insights - The banking industry is expected to see a reasonable M2 growth target of approximately 7.5%, with credit growth around 6.0% and social financing growth at about 8.0% for 2026. This aligns with the anticipated nominal GDP growth of about 5.0% and actual GDP growth of approximately 4.9% [1][15][21]. - The report highlights that the flow of deposits will be a key factor affecting the asset-liability structure of banks in 2026, with a significant amount of term deposits maturing, estimated at around 57 trillion yuan [3][49]. - The credit allocation is expected to show strong support for corporate lending, contributing approximately 80% to 85% of new loans, while retail lending is projected to improve marginally, contributing about 10% to 15% [2][36]. Summary by Sections M2 and Credit Growth - The M2 growth target for 2026 is set at approximately 7.5%, with an expected M2 increment of about 25.4 trillion yuan, driven by fiscal net injection of around 12.0 trillion yuan and bank credit issuance of about 16.8 trillion yuan [1][21][22]. - The anticipated credit growth for 2026 is around 6.0%, with new social financing expected to reach approximately 35.3 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.0% growth rate [21][26][30]. Deposit Flow and Asset-Liability Structure - The report indicates that the flow of deposits from large banks to smaller banks will be a critical factor in determining the marginal changes in the asset-liability gap for large banks in 2026. The pressure from deposit migration is expected to ease somewhat [2][41][54]. - The maturing term deposits for the six major banks are estimated to be between 27 trillion and 32 trillion yuan, with a significant portion being long-term deposits [3][49][50]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines for investment in 2026: high-quality companies with improving fundamentals, such as Ningbo Bank and Changshu Bank, and stable high-dividend stocks like China Merchants Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the banking sector [4][5]. Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to see a reasonable M2 growth target of approximately 7.5%, with credit growth around 6.0% and social financing growth at about 8.0% for 2026. This aligns with the goal of stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [1][21]. - The report highlights that the flow of deposits will be a key factor affecting the asset-liability structure of banks in 2026, with a significant amount of term deposits maturing, estimated at around 57 trillion yuan [3][49]. - The credit allocation is expected to remain strong for corporate lending, contributing approximately 80% to 85% of new loans, while retail lending is anticipated to show marginal improvement, contributing about 10% to 15% [2][36]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The actual GDP growth target for 2026 is estimated at 4.9%, with a nominal GDP growth target of about 5.0%, which corresponds to a reasonable M2 growth target of 7.5% [1][15]. - The projected M2 increment for 2026 is approximately 25.4 trillion yuan, with fiscal net M2 injection around 12.0 trillion yuan and bank credit (including write-offs and ABS) contributing about 16.8 trillion yuan [21][22]. Credit Allocation - Corporate lending is expected to remain the primary support for new loans, while retail lending will experience structural differentiation, with personal operating loans maintaining good growth and housing loans likely showing slight positive growth [2][36]. - The report indicates that the flow of deposits from large banks to smaller banks will be a critical factor in the marginal changes in the asset-liability gap for large banks in 2026 [3][41]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines for investment in 2026: high-quality companies with improving fundamentals, such as Ningbo Bank and Changshu Bank, and stable high-dividend stocks like China Merchants Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - Major state-owned banks in China are tightening the risk assessment requirements for personal gold accumulation business to protect individual investors amid market instability [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - Starting from January 12, 2026, personal clients must undergo a risk assessment and achieve a minimum rating of C3-Balanced or above to engage in gold accumulation activities [3]. - Existing clients with valid risk assessment results are exempt from re-evaluation for transactions such as redemption and account cancellation [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - Other banks, including Ningbo Bank and Citic Bank, have also raised the risk assessment thresholds for gold accumulation products, indicating a broader trend in the banking sector [4]. - The minimum investment amount for gold accumulation products has been increasing, with many banks raising the threshold to 1,000 yuan since 2025 [4]. Group 3: Market Context - The tightening of gold accumulation business is closely linked to the rising gold prices, which have continued to increase into 2026, with spot gold surpassing 4,400 USD per ounce on January 5, 2026, marking a 1.9% daily increase [4].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the consumption finance industry in China is experiencing a capital increase trend, particularly among bank-affiliated consumption finance companies, driven by regulatory policies and competitive pressures [1][4][6] Group 2 - Beijing Bank's major shareholder, Beiyin Consumer Finance, has been approved to increase its registered capital by 150 million yuan, raising it from 850 million yuan to 1 billion yuan, making it the first consumption finance company approved for capital increase in 2026 [1] - In December 2025, Changsha Bank announced plans to increase its capital in Hunan Changyin 58 Consumer Finance by up to 1.55 billion yuan to enhance its capital strength and risk resilience [2] - Another bank-affiliated company, Nan Yin Fa Ba Consumer Finance, increased its registered capital from 5.215 billion yuan to 6 billion yuan, ranking fourth among 31 licensed consumption finance companies in China [3] - A total of eight institutions, including Ningyin Consumer Finance and Hubei Consumer Finance, completed or disclosed capital increase measures in 2025, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024, indicating a strong enthusiasm for capital increase in the industry [3] - Bank-affiliated consumption finance companies account for 75% of the capital increase activities, highlighting their dominance in this trend [3] Group 3 - The increase in capital is driven by regulatory policies that have raised the minimum registered capital requirement from 300 million yuan to 1 billion yuan, emphasizing the importance of capital strength in the industry [4] - Different strategies for capital increase are observed among institutions, with smaller firms focusing on compliance and larger firms aiming to expand their scale and consolidate their market position [5] - As of January 5, 2026, four consumption finance companies still have registered capital below 1 billion yuan, indicating ongoing challenges for some institutions in meeting regulatory requirements [5][6] Group 4 - Analysts predict that the trend of capital increases will continue into 2026, as competition intensifies and regulatory frameworks improve, making capital strength a key indicator of core competitiveness in the industry [6]

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 92, indicating an "overheated" market condition, which suggests a high level of investor optimism [5][8][20]. Hot Themes Tracking - **Robotics Theme**: The establishment of a national standard organization for humanoid robots and embodied intelligence marks a transition from "technical exploration" to "industrial collaboration" and "scale deployment," which is expected to accelerate technology application and ecosystem formation. Related stocks include Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050) and Wolong Electric Drive (600580) [5]. - **Banking Theme**: Bank stocks exhibit high dividend characteristics, with the CSI Bank Index yielding 6.02%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield. This makes bank stocks important investment targets for long-term funds like insurance and social security, especially during economic slowdowns. Related stocks include Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Ningbo Bank (002142) [5]. - **Brain-Computer Interface Theme**: Neuralink plans to begin large-scale production of brain-computer interface devices in 2026, with a projected global market size of $12.4 billion by 2034 and a CAGR of 17% from 2025 to 2034. Related stocks include Aipeng Medical (300753) and Maipu Medical (301033) [5]. Capital Flow Analysis - The top ten stocks with the highest net inflow include Dongfang Caifu (300059) with a net inflow of 265.83 million, Shanzigao Technology (000981) with 145.54 million, and TCL Technology (000100) with 129.31 million [9]. - The top ten stocks with the highest net outflow include Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) with a net outflow of -264.73 million and Xinyi Sheng (300502) with -227.65 million [11]. Industry Insights - The report highlights the performance of various industries, with the non-ferrous metals and non-bank financial sectors showing significant net inflows, while industries like media and telecommunications are experiencing substantial net outflows [15][21].

Core Viewpoint - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) has announced adjustments to the risk tolerance levels for personal customers' accumulation gold business, requiring a minimum risk assessment of C3-balanced type for account opening and investment plans, citing market instability as a reason for the change [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The gold and silver markets have seen significant price increases, with London gold and silver experiencing annual gains of approximately 65% and 148% respectively in 2025, leading to heightened demand for precious metals among domestic investors [1] - The strong performance of the precious metals market has driven rapid expansion in banks' precious metal asset scales, with 17 out of 19 banks reporting growth in their precious metal assets in the third quarter of 2025, and 10 banks showing increases exceeding 100% [3] - The demand for precious metals is being fueled by both customer-driven business and increased self-trading by banks, as they seek to enhance their positions in precious metals and hedge against price volatility [3] Group 2: Regulatory Adjustments - ICBC's new risk assessment requirements will take effect on January 12, 2026, and customers must complete a risk assessment questionnaire and sign a risk disclosure document to engage in accumulation gold business [2] - Other banks, including Ningbo Bank and CITIC Bank, have also adjusted their accumulation gold risk levels in response to rising gold prices, with many banks increasing the minimum investment thresholds for accumulation gold [2] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Ordinary investors face challenges in accessing precious metal investments, as many banks have halted new accounts for derivative products like "paper silver," limiting investment channels primarily to physical products and related stocks [5] - Analysts suggest that investors should adopt a long-term investment approach, treating precious metals as a hedge rather than a speculative tool, and recommend dollar-cost averaging to mitigate risks associated with short-term price fluctuations [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share banking sector is expected to achieve a market value breakthrough in 2025, but the overall growth rate is slowing and underperforming compared to the broader market, with significant individual stock differentiation [1][7]. Market Performance - As of December 31, 2025, the Wind Banking Index reached 7180.68 points, with an annual growth of 12.04%, lower than the previous year's 43.56%. The total market value of the sector at year-end was 15.71 trillion yuan, an increase of over 15% from the beginning of the year, having briefly surpassed 16 trillion yuan [1][7]. - The banking sector exhibited a clear phase differentiation throughout the year, with a mild increase in Q1, a significant rise in Q2, a deep correction in Q3, and a recovery in Q4 [2][8]. Individual Stock Performance - In 2025, 35 out of 42 A-share listed banks saw their stock prices rise, accounting for over 83%. Among the six banks with over 20% growth, Agricultural Bank led with a 52.66% increase, followed by Xiamen Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Chongqing Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank, and Ningbo Bank with growth rates ranging from 20.68% to 35.78% [3][9]. - Conversely, seven banks experienced declines, with Huaxia Bank at the bottom with a 9.82% drop, and Zhengzhou Bank, Beijing Bank, and China Everbright Bank all declining by over 5% [3][9]. Future Outlook - Multiple brokerage firms predict an improvement in revenue and profit growth for listed banks in 2026, with expected revenue growth rates of +2.5% and +3.6% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, and net profit growth rates of +1.9% and +2.6% [4][10]. - The improvement in revenue and profit growth is attributed to several factors, including a reduction in net interest margin pressure, a shift towards quality in credit issuance, and a stabilization in fee income growth [4][10]. Investment Strategy - In light of the different characteristics of new inflows, the equity market in 2025 is characterized by increased stable return strategy products, enhanced structural trends, and greater individual stock volatility. For 2026, it is recommended to prioritize stable stocks and adopt a bottom-fishing strategy, while also considering elastic stocks for rotation trading [6][12].

公告送出日期：2026年01月07日 1、 公告基本信息 ■ 注： （1）为维护基金份额持有人利益，保障基金的平稳运作，富安达基金管理有限公司（以下简称"本基金 管理人"）决定：2026年1月8日，暂停本基金代销机构申购（含定期定额投资及转换转入）业务。但涉 及以下销售机构或途径的申购和转换转入业务照常办理（排名不分先后）：平安银行股份有限公司（行 E通平台）、宁波银行股份有限公司（同业易管家平台）、招商银行股份有限公司（招赢通平台）、华 夏银行股份有限公司、上海利得基金销售有限公司、青岛意才基金销售有限公司、上海汇付基金销售有 限公司、上海天天基金销售有限公司、诺亚正行基金销售有限公司、泰信财富基金销售有限公司、北京 加和基金销售有限公司、通华财富（上海）基金销售有限公司、京东肯特瑞基金销售有限公司。富安达 基金直销平台相关业务正常办理。 （2）在本基金暂停申购（含定期定额投资及转换转入）业务期间，本基金管理人将正常办理本基金的 赎回和转换转出业务。 （3）2026年1月9日起本基金代销渠道将恢复办理申购（含定期定额投资及转换转入）业务，届时将不 再另行公告。 2、 其他需要提示的事项 特此公告。 富安达基 ...