3月两会，3月底4月初中美关系观察窗口，可能都会演绎震荡市中的反弹波段。震荡波段中，最佳机会 是科技新方向，春节假期兑现新亮点的方向，就是短期结构性机会的主要来源，重点关注：机器人产业 (机器人尚未触及低性价比区域)、AI大模型(A股可能更多体现为AI应用的扩散机会)、存储。另外，美 伊冲突担忧升温，关注石油、油运。基于中期机会做配置，景气科技和周期Alpha仍是方向。另外，中 期看好非银金融的重估机会。 兴业证券：节后A股将进入一段高胜率窗口，继续看好A股节后迎来新一轮上行 兴业证券表示，节前A股跟随海外资产调整后已释放了一定的风险，节后A股即将进入一段高胜率窗 口，叠加海外美国关税违宪和特朗普访华日程敲定支撑风险偏好、国内宏观和产业层面的密集催化对结 构上形成指引，继续看好A股节后迎来新一轮上行。 A股三大股指集体低开，沪指跌0.43%，创业板指跌1.23%。盘面上，旅游板块表现活跃，三特索道涨超 3%;锂矿、半导体等板块大幅回调，盛鑫锂能、天齐锂业跌超2%。 机构看后市 申万宏源：春节假期，压制总体风险偏好的因素仍较多，节后可能延续短期调整 申万宏源表示，维持中期还有"第二阶段上涨"的判断，可能启动的窗 ...

Group 1: Amer Sports Performance - Amer Sports reported a 27% year-on-year revenue growth for FY2025, reaching $6.566 billion, with an adjusted net profit of $545 million, up from $236 million in 2024 [7][8] - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a revenue increase of 28% year-on-year to $2.101 billion, with an adjusted net profit of $176 million, compared to $90 million in Q4 2024 [8] - The management guidance for 2026 indicates a revenue growth of 16-18% at constant exchange rates, with an operating profit margin of 13.1-13.3% [8] Group 2: Silver Economy and Sports Industry - The aging population in China is creating significant opportunities in the silver economy, particularly in the sports industry and products catering to older adults [9][10] - The sports apparel market is projected to reach ¥437.7 billion by 2025, with outdoor trail running shoes expected to grow over 150% [9] - The demand for professional running shoes priced above ¥200 is anticipated to maintain double-digit growth, driven by increased health awareness among the elderly [9] Group 3: Lithium Industry Insights - The lithium market is experiencing tightening supply and low inventory levels, with global lithium demand expected to reach approximately 200,000 tons LCE in 2026 [12][14] - Domestic lithium supply is not yet at large-scale production levels, and there are potential disruptions in supply due to regulatory changes and production delays [13] - The anticipated demand from both power and energy storage batteries is expected to drive lithium prices upward, with projections suggesting prices may exceed ¥200,000 per ton in the near term [14] Group 4: Chemical Industry Policy Impact - Recent tax incentives for marine oil and gas exploration are aimed at reducing import costs for essential equipment, thereby enhancing domestic oil and gas supply capabilities [15][16] - The policy is expected to improve the internal rate of return for marine exploration projects and support the development of deep-sea oil fields [16] Group 5: Matrix Holdings Performance - Matrix Holdings is positioned as a leading high-end interior design company, with a significant recovery in profitability expected as the real estate market stabilizes [19][20] - The company anticipates a substantial increase in net profit for 2025, projected to be between ¥58 million and ¥80 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 72%-137% [19] - The introduction of an "AI + Design" platform is expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability in the design process [20] Group 6: Anfu Technology's Strategic Shift - Anfu Technology has transitioned from retail to becoming a leader in the small battery sector through its acquisition of Nanfu Battery, which has shown consistent revenue growth [21][22] - The company plans to acquire the remaining shares of Nanfu Battery to enhance profitability further [22] - Anfu is also investing in high-tech sectors, including AI and semiconductor manufacturing, to diversify its business model [21][22]

记者丨董鹏 编辑丨郑世凤 张明艳 金珊 本就处于紧平衡的锂盐市场，供给端再添重要变量。 2026年2月25日，津巴布韦矿业部发布锂矿出口禁令，涵盖在途货物，且无明确恢复时间表。 津巴布韦，是过去几年全球锂精矿增长最迅速的国家之一，此前曾吸引多家中资锂业公司参与当地资源开发。 相关数据显示，2025年，中国进口锂精矿总量约为775.1万吨，其中从津巴布韦进口量达120.4万吨，占总进口量的15.5%左右，是仅次于澳大利亚的第二大 进口来源国。 因为有刚果（金）暂停出口引发2025年钴价上涨的案例在先，此次津巴布韦限制锂精矿出口也加重了市场各方对锂产品涨价的预期。 不过，节后碳酸锂期、现价格已经连续大涨，逼近今年1月下旬的前期高点，加之该品种多空博弈激烈，26日多个期货合约高开低走，Wind锂矿指数涨幅也 大幅收窄至1.19%。 "价值留存"战略 津巴布韦加强自身锂资源管控，此前已有征兆。 2022年12月，时任矿业部长奇坦多签署禁令，首次禁止未加工锂原矿出口，启动"价值留存"战略，以迫使矿业公司在当地精炼矿产,从其国家资源中获取更 大的经济收益。 不过，也正是在2022年四季度，全球锂价触顶回落，到2025年碳 ...

本就处于紧平衡的锂盐市场，供给端再添重要变量。 2026年2月25日，津巴布韦矿业部发布锂矿出口禁令，涵盖在途货物，且无明确恢复时间表。 津巴布韦，是过去几年全球锂精矿增长最迅速的国家之一，此前曾吸引多家中资锂业公司参与当地资源 开发。 相关数据显示，2025年，中国进口锂精矿总量约为775.1万吨，其中从津巴布韦进口量达120.4万吨，占 总进口量的15.5%左右，是仅次于澳大利亚的第二大进口来源国。 不过，也正是在2022年四季度，全球锂价触顶回落，到2025年碳酸锂价格最大跌幅更是达到90%，矿企 在当地建设冶炼产能的计划放缓。 直至2025年6月，奇坦多明确2027年1月起全面禁止锂精矿出口，仅允许出口硫酸锂等加工产品。 "2025年底，矿业部长由温斯顿·奇坦多更换为波利特·坎巴穆拉，后者采取了更为激进的执行策略。"中 粮期货指出。 因为有刚果（金）暂停出口引发2025年钴价上涨的案例在先，此次津巴布韦限制锂精矿出口也加重了市 场各方对锂产品涨价的预期。 不过，节后碳酸锂期、现价格已经连续大涨，逼近今年1月下旬的前期高点，加之该品种多空博弈激 烈，26日多个期货合约高开低走，Wind锂矿指数涨幅也大幅 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zimbabwe's sudden ban on lithium ore and concentrate exports has created significant disruptions in the global lithium supply chain, affecting nearly 20% of China's lithium raw material supply and potentially leading to a supply gap of approximately 14,000 to 15,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent per month starting in May 2026 [1][3][4]. Group 1: Impact of Zimbabwe's Ban - Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines announced an immediate suspension of all lithium ore and concentrate exports, including shipments already at sea, to strengthen mineral regulation and promote domestic processing [1][3]. - In 2025, China imported 7.75 million tons of lithium concentrate, with 1.2 million tons (19%) coming from Zimbabwe, highlighting the critical role of Zimbabwe in China's lithium supply [3]. - The ban is expected to lead to a significant increase in lithium prices, with domestic carbonate lithium futures prices surging to over 171,440 yuan per ton, reflecting a nearly 17% increase in just two trading days [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Opportunities - The immediate market reaction saw a spike in lithium prices, with the benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 162,000 yuan per ton, an increase of over 8% since the beginning of the month [4]. - Companies with integrated mining and processing capabilities in Zimbabwe are positioned to benefit from the ban, as they can still apply for export licenses while others face supply constraints [6]. - A total of 13 domestic companies with lithium carbonate production or lithium mining resources are now in the spotlight, with 7 of them forecasting significant profit increases for 2025 [7]. Group 3: Company Profiles and Strategies - The first tier of companies, termed "ban immune," includes Huayou Cobalt, which has established deep processing capacity in Zimbabwe and is set to produce lithium sulfate, allowing it to circumvent the export ban [9]. - Zhongjin Lingnan has a strong position with its control over the Bikita lithium mine, which allows it to apply for export licenses despite the ban, and it has a stockpile of 150,000 tons of lithium concentrate to buffer against short-term export restrictions [11]. - The second tier includes resource giants like Ganfeng Lithium, which has diversified global resources and is expected to see a significant increase in production from 200,000 tons to 500,000 tons by 2026, benefiting from rising lithium prices [11][13]. Group 4: Long-term Industry Implications - The ban is prompting a reevaluation of companies with overseas resources, local processing capabilities, or stable domestic sources, as their strategic value is being reassessed in the market [17]. - The surge in lithium carbonate futures and the rising stock prices of lithium mining companies reflect this market reassessment and the potential for long-term growth in the sector [17].

今天商品和权益市场演了一出极其吊诡的"双簧"。 碳酸锂期货主力合约早盘放量高开超11.42%，盘中一度逼近187,700元/吨的大关。 正当股民以为锂电上游能像同期的稀有金属（稀土、钨、锑），以及贵金属板块狠狠涨一波时。谁知，明星概念股却是两极分化。 盐湖股份、天齐锂业、赣锋锂业等核心标的强势高开，而盛新锂能、雅化集团等却大幅领跌。 | 177 77 177 | | | I | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 | | 300438 | 鹏辉能源 | 43.47 | -9.15 | | 002497 | 雅化集团 | 26.44 | -8.76 | | 002009 | 天吉股份 | 31.06 | -6.53 | | 002240 | 盛新理能 | 42.26 | -6.50 | | 002759 | 天际股份 | 38.50 | -5.94 | | 300390 | 天华新能 | 49.90 | -5.51 | | 000973 | 佛塑科技 | 13.72 | -5.44 | | 301100 | 风光股份 | 23.84 | -5.17 | ...

本就处于紧平衡的锂盐市场，供给端再添重要变量。 2026年2月25日，津巴布韦矿业部发布锂矿出口禁令，涵盖在途货物，且无明确恢复时间表。 津巴布韦，是过去几年全球锂精矿增长最迅速的国家之一，此前曾吸引多家中资锂业公司参与当地资源开发。 相关数据显示，2025年，中国进口锂精矿总量约为775.1万吨，其中从津巴布韦进口量达120.4万吨，占总进口量的15.5%左右，是仅次于澳大利亚的第二大 进口来源国。 因为有刚果（金）暂停出口引发2025年钴价上涨的案例在先，此次津巴布韦限制锂精矿出口也加重了市场各方对锂产品涨价的预期。 不过，节后碳酸锂期、现价格已经连续大涨，逼近今年1月下旬的前期高点，加之该品种多空博弈激烈，26日多个期货合约高开低走，锂矿指数涨幅也大幅 收窄至1.19%。 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 浙庆 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 000546 | 美国股份 | 6.83 c | 0.62 | 9.98% | | 2 | 000792 | 非湖股份 | 39.01 c | 2.81 | 7.76% | | ...

津巴布韦暂停出口原矿和锂精矿，不仅对全球锂行业产生影响，也波及了全球锂板块的股价表现。北京时间2月26日，全球最大盐湖提锂企业智利矿业化工 （SQM）股价上涨3.68%，全球锂矿巨头美国雅保（ALB）上涨4.84%。A股方面，盐湖股份开盘一度冲击涨停，天齐锂业（SZ002466，股价56.04元，市值 956.18亿元）盘中一度大涨超5%。 这一消息发布得十分突然。新华社于2月25日晚间9时22分发布了相关英文报道。当晚，每经记者联系了在津巴布韦有项目的A股锂企高管以及长期从事非洲 锂矿勘探研究的大学教授进行核实，对方均表示消息来得突然。 "（25日）中午就收到确认消息了，影响很大，津巴布韦是非洲最重要的锂矿供应国。"该高校教授表示，暂停锂精矿出口在去年已有迹象。2023年他去考察 时，当地政府已有此打算，但因锂价下跌未能实施。2019年到2023年恰好是全球锂矿的第二轮历史大周期，碳酸锂价格从不足10万元/吨一度飙升至60万元/ 吨，而2023年正是锂价由牛转熊的分水岭。他认为，此次政策反映出关键金属的资源争夺正在加剧，资源正日益成为稀缺品和硬通货。 两家锂企的董秘坦言，也是在2月25日才看到这项政策，"之 ...

Market Performance - During the Spring Festival, developed markets saw a general rise, with MSCI Global up by 1.1%, MSCI Developed Markets up by 1.2%, and MSCI Emerging Markets up by 0.8%[3] - The US 10Y Treasury yield increased significantly, while Japanese yields decreased the most[3] Profit Expectations - US stock earnings expectations were revised upward, with S&P 500 2026 EPS forecast increased from +12.7% to +12.9%[4] - Hong Kong's earnings expectations remained flat, with Hang Seng Index 2026 EPS forecast at +11.1%[4] - Eurozone earnings expectations were revised down from -3.1% to -3.0%[4] Economic Indicators - The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US decreased, influenced by lower-than-expected Q4 GDP growth and uncertainties surrounding tariffs[5] - The European Economic Surprise Index increased, driven by significant growth in German economic output[5] Industry Insights - The lithium carbonate market is expected to tighten due to Zimbabwe's ban on lithium concentrate exports, impacting global supply significantly[13] - In 2025, China imported 1.19 million tons of lithium concentrate from Zimbabwe, translating to a production of 148,800 tons of lithium carbonate[14] Real Estate Market - In Q4 2025, only 19% of cities showed signs of bottoming out in the real estate market, with over 90% of key cities experiencing a year-on-year decline in new home transactions[17] - New home prices are expected to continue declining, with first-tier cities facing a clearing cycle exceeding 23 months[20] Banking Sector - Large banks saw a significant increase in short-term loans, while small banks experienced a slowdown in credit growth, with large banks' short-term loans increasing by 4,197 billion yuan[35] - The overall loan amount decreased by 4,893 billion yuan year-on-year, with large banks and small banks seeing declines of 2,130 billion yuan and 2,763 billion yuan, respectively[38] Company Coverage - Samsung Medical's revenue is projected to reach 14.804 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 1.4%[40] - The company is expected to maintain a target price of 32.4 yuan, reflecting a 24X PE valuation for 2026[40]

津巴布韦政府于2月25日宣布立即暂停所有锂精矿出口，这一超预期政策冲击全球锂供应链，引发市场对碳酸锂价格上行的强烈预期。 受消息提振，2月26日国内碳酸锂期货主力合约盘中一度大涨12%至18.7万元/吨，截至收盘涨幅收窄至3.47%，报17.37万元/吨。值得关注的是，该 品种前一交易日收盘涨超10%，创下上市以来最大单日涨幅。 国泰海通证券认为，津巴布韦此次锂矿出口禁令较原定时间表大幅提前，且执行力度超出预期。 津巴布韦矿业及矿产发展部于当地时间2月25日发布紧急声明，宣布即刻起暂停所有原矿和锂精矿出口，且明确适用于目前正在运输途中的所有矿 产，暂无恢复时间表。 根据新规，未来仅持有效采矿权及获批选矿厂的企业具备出口资格，禁止代理及第三方贸易商参与。申请企业须提交省级矿业办关于选矿能力及 合规的建议信，并申报矿物成分，违规者将面临吊销出口许可乃至采矿权的处罚。 A股锂矿概念板块同步走强，盘中最高涨幅超3%。尔康制药涨超12%，科力远、金圆股份涨10%，盐湖股份、天齐锂业、赣锋锂业等跟涨。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | | 盐湖股份 | 39.01c | 7. ...