行 业 研 究 2025 年 10 月 20 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-10 2025-02 2025-06 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《新房二手房成交面积环比增长，编 制 智 能 化 市 政 基 础 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.10.19 开发投资额降幅扩大，房企资金压力犹存 2025 年 1-9 月，房地产开发投资额 6.77 万亿元，同比-13.9%（1-8 月-12.9%）， 其中住宅开发投资额同比-12.9%，降幅持续扩大，新开工数据下滑、三季度以来 销售回暖不及预期仍影响投资意愿。2025 年 1-9 月，房地产开发企业到位资金 7.23 万亿元，同比-8.4%（1-8 月-8.0%），其中国内贷款、自筹资金、定金及预收 款、个人按揭贷款累计同比分别-1.4%、-9.3%、-10.3%、-10.6%（1-8 月+0.2%、 -8.9%、-10.5%、-10.5%），除定金及预收款外其他来源资金同比降幅均扩大或增 速转负，在销售数据走弱情况下，房企销售回款压力仍较大。 《新房成交面积同环比下降， ...

Group 1: Macro Economic Overview - The Q3 economic slowdown aligns with expectations, with GDP growth at 4.8% year-on-year, matching consensus forecasts, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.1% [3][4] - The second industry has weakened significantly, particularly in the construction sector, which is expected to show a notable decline in GDP [3][4] - Exports have rebounded, boosting industrial production, while the service sector remains resilient, with industrial added value increasing by 1.3% year-on-year in September [3][4] Group 2: Real Estate Market Analysis - New housing transactions have weakened, with a significant year-on-year decline in sales volume observed in major cities, indicating a challenging market environment [11][13] - The average transaction area of new homes in 30 major cities fell by 3% compared to the previous two weeks, with year-on-year declines of 32% and 28% compared to 2023 and 2024, respectively [13][34] - Second-hand housing prices have also shown a downward trend, with a year-on-year decline of 5.2%, although the rate of decline has narrowed compared to previous months [33][37] Group 3: Fixed Income and Fiscal Policy - National public budget revenue increased by 0.5% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, while expenditure grew by 3.1% [16][17] - The central government allocated 500 billion yuan to local governments from debt limits, indicating a proactive fiscal policy approach [16][18] - Tax revenue has shown steady growth, with a notable increase in securities transaction stamp duty revenue, which rose by 342.4% year-on-year [17][19] Group 4: Industry-Specific Insights - The electric vehicle and battery management sectors are experiencing growth, with companies like Huazhi Jie expanding into new application areas such as new energy vehicles and drones [22][24] - The coal industry is witnessing a price surge, with thermal coal prices nearing 750 yuan per ton, driven by seasonal demand and supply constraints [44][45] - The pharmaceutical sector, represented by Guobang Pharmaceutical, is showing steady growth in performance and profitability, indicating a robust market position [47]

Core Viewpoint - Greentown China (03900.HK) announced a project management service agreement with Hangzhou Zhongyi Jiangchen Real Estate, which is expected to enhance project quality without significant capital investment [1] Group 1: Agreement Details - The agreement involves Greentown Real Estate Construction Management, a non-wholly owned subsidiary of Greentown China, providing project management services for a specific project [1] - The selection of Greentown Real Estate Construction Management as the service provider was conducted through a competitive bidding process, ensuring compliance with market practices and the company's commercial interests [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The board believes that this agreement will leverage the company's expertise in property development and project management in China, thereby driving project construction and improving quality [1] - The terms and costs of the agreement were determined based on the bidding documents and are aligned with market norms [1]

Core Viewpoint - Greentown China (03900) has entered into a real estate development management agreement with Hangzhou Zhongyi Jiangchen Real Estate for project management services, enhancing its operational capabilities without significant capital investment [1] Group 1: Agreement Details - The agreement is set to commence on October 20, 2025, and involves Greentown Real Estate Construction Management providing project management services for a construction project located in Qiantang District, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province [1] - The total construction area of the project is approximately 90,711 square meters, intended for residential property development [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The board believes that this agreement will allow the company to leverage its expertise in property development and project management in China, thereby improving project quality and construction efficiency [1] - The selection of the project management service provider was conducted through a competitive bidding process, ensuring that the terms and costs align with market practices and the company's business interests [1]

Core Viewpoint - Greentown China (03900) has entered into a real estate development management agreement with Hangzhou Zhongyi Jiangchen Real Estate for project management services, enhancing its revenue potential without significant capital investment [1] Group 1: Agreement Details - The agreement is set to commence on October 20, 2025, and involves Greentown Real Estate Construction Management providing project management services for a residential property development in Qiantang District, Hangzhou, with a total construction area of approximately 90,711 square meters [1] - The selection of the project management service provider was conducted through a competitive bidding process, ensuring that Greentown Real Estate Construction Management was chosen based on comprehensive evaluation and comparison of multiple bidders [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The board believes that this agreement will allow the company to leverage its expertise and experience in property development and project management in China, thereby improving the quality of the project while generating income without heavy capital expenditure [1]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不 負 責，對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示，概 不 對 因 本 公 告 全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責 任。 GREENTOWN CHINA HOLDINGS LIMITED 關連交易 提供項目管理服務 於2025年10月20日，綠 城 房 地 產 建 設 管 理（本 公 司 非 全 資 附 屬 公 司）與（其 中 包 括）杭 州 中 宜 江 晨 置 業 訂 立 該 協 議。根 據 該 協 議，綠 城 房 地 產 建 設 管 理 同 意 就 該 項 目 向 杭 州 中 宜 江 晨 置 業 提 供 項 目 管 理 服 務。 上市規則的涵義 於 本 公 告 日 期，中 交 集 團 及 其 附 屬 公 司 持 有733,456,293股 股 份，佔 本 公 司 已 發行股本約28.88%。因 此，根 據 上 市 規 則，中 交 集 團 為 本 公 司 的 主 要 股 東。 故 此，中 交 集 團 及 其 聯 繫 人（包 括 中 交 集 團 的 間 接 非 全 資 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and real estate services sectors [5]. Core Views - The "Good House" concept is expected to reshape the supply structure in the real estate market, emphasizing product quality as a core competitive advantage for real estate companies [1][4]. - The demand for housing is shifting from "having" to "quality," indicating a transition to a quality-driven market [2][14]. - The "Good House" initiative is a systematic project aimed at improving housing quality, with significant implications for both supply and demand sides [9][10]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report recommends a continued focus on "three good" real estate stocks characterized by good credit, good cities, and good products, specifically highlighting companies like China Overseas Development and China Resources Land [1][7]. Housing Quality and Market Dynamics - The "Good House" concept was introduced in 2022 and officially implemented in 2025, marking a shift towards a quality-oriented housing market [2][9]. - There is a notable improvement in buyer preferences, with larger units (over 120 square meters) seeing increased sales, indicating a trend towards higher-quality living spaces [20][21]. Government Policies and Standards - The government has outlined four key characteristics of a "Good House": safety, comfort, green standards, and smart technology, which are now integral to new housing project regulations [3][30]. - The report details the evolution of housing standards in China, culminating in the 2025 release of the "Residential Project Standards," which aims to enhance overall housing quality [40]. Market Performance and Company Recommendations - Companies that have adopted the "Good House" framework have shown better sales performance, with many achieving sales rates above 70% for new projects [25][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product iteration in the real estate sector, drawing parallels with the smartphone and automotive industries, where product quality drives market dynamics [4][36]. Regional Policy Implementation - Various cities have begun implementing local policies aligned with the "Good House" standards, focusing on aspects like building quality, community amenities, and environmental considerations [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and real estate services sectors [6]. Core Insights - The industry is still in a bottoming and stabilizing phase, with a more optimistic view on real estate companies in core cities with abundant resources. The report highlights that while the marginal improvement in construction and sales is noted, housing prices still face downward pressure [1][2]. - The report recommends real estate stocks that align with the "good credit, good city, good product" logic, as well as leading property management companies with stable dividends and performance [1]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Development - In September, real estate development investment saw a year-on-year decline of 21%, which is a 1.8 percentage point increase in the decline compared to August. Cumulatively from January to September, the year-on-year decline is 14% [2]. - The land market showed marginal improvement in September, with transaction area and transaction amount down by 1% and 7% year-on-year, respectively, compared to declines of 25% and 31% in August [2]. - New construction in September decreased by 14% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 6 percentage points compared to August [2]. Sales Performance - The sales amount in September saw a year-on-year decline of 12%, which is a 2 percentage point narrowing from August. Cumulatively, from January to September, the year-on-year decline is 8% [3]. - The new housing price index in 70 cities decreased by 2.7% year-on-year in September, with a 0.3 percentage point narrowing from August [3]. Cash Flow Situation - In September, the cash inflow for real estate companies decreased by 12% year-on-year, although the decline narrowed by 0.4 percentage points compared to August. Specifically, deposits and prepayments fell by 9% year-on-year, while personal mortgage loans decreased by 11% [4]. - The overall cash flow situation for real estate companies remains to be improved, as domestic loans saw a significant decline of 15% year-on-year in September [4].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The report strongly supports the sustained high growth of computing power demand driven by AI applications, marking a pivotal moment for the commercialization of AI applications both domestically and internationally [4] - The domestic computing power capacity bottleneck is expected to be broken soon, with a forecast for a significant increase in domestic chip production by 2026 [4][6] - The ongoing tensions between China and the US do not alter the positive trend in the AI industry, but rather heighten the urgency for domestic computing power adoption [6] Group 2: Domestic Computing Power Industry - Cambricon (688256) reported a Q3 2025 revenue of 1.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1332.5%, and a net profit of 570 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [5] - The inventory for Q3 2025 was 3.73 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.4 billion yuan increase from Q2, indicating that supply chain fluctuations may have been resolved [5] - The report anticipates that after the adaptation of the upstream and downstream supply chains, the performance of domestic computing power companies is expected to see significant growth [5] Group 3: Key Players and Investment Opportunities - Key companies in the domestic computing power hardware supply chain include Cambricon (688256), SMIC (0981.HK), and Huahong Semiconductor (1347.HK), all of which are recommended for investment [7][13] - The report highlights the real demand for computing power from major Chinese internet companies like ByteDance and Alibaba, which require intelligent computing power for their operations [7] - The report suggests focusing on core companies in the computing power hardware industry, including Cambricon and SMIC, as well as Huahong Semiconductor's advancements in advanced processes [7] Group 4: Optical Communication Opportunities - The demand for optical modules is expected to rise significantly, with projections of over 10 million units for 1.6T optical modules and over 40 million units for 800G modules in 2026 [9] - The report emphasizes the importance of optical communication in scale-up networks and anticipates a doubling of market size in 2026 and 2027 [9] - Recommended investments include leading optical module companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang (300308), Xinyi Technology (300502), and Tianfu Communication (300394) [9][13] Group 5: AI Edge Hardware Opportunities - Meta has launched AI smart glasses, and OpenAI is set to release several AI hardware products, indicating a growing market for AI edge hardware [10] - The report highlights the need for high-performance, low-power AI edge hardware, suggesting investment in companies like Zhaoyi Innovation (603986) and Baiwei Storage (688525) [10] - Collaboration opportunities in AI edge hardware are noted for companies in the Apple supply chain, including Luxshare Precision (002475) and Lens Technology (6613.HK) [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the market by more than 5% over the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the sales decline in September has narrowed, with the total sales area of commercial housing reaching 85.31 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5%, which is a slight improvement from August [5]. - The total sales amount in September was 802.5 billion yuan, down 11.8% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed by 2.2 percentage points compared to August [5]. - The report indicates that the inventory of unsold commercial housing has continued to decrease, with a total of 760 million square meters at the end of September, marking seven consecutive months of reduction [5]. - Overall, the real estate market is moving towards stabilization, but the recovery process will take time, with key measures including interest rate cuts and cost reductions to enhance rental returns [5]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In September, the sales area and amount showed a year-to-date decline of 5.5% and 7.9%, respectively, but these figures are less severe compared to the full year of 2024 [5]. - The sales area in September was 85.31 million square meters, and the sales amount was 802.5 billion yuan, reflecting a narrowing decline compared to previous months [5]. Investment and Construction - New construction starts in September decreased by 14.4% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed by 5.9 percentage points from August [5]. - The completion of projects increased by 1.5% year-on-year, showing a significant improvement of 22.9 percentage points compared to August [5]. - Real estate investment saw a year-on-year decline of 21.3%, with the decline expanding by 1.7 percentage points from August [5]. Financial Aspects - The report notes that funding for real estate development has decreased by 11% year-on-year, with domestic loans down by 14.5%, indicating a tightening financial environment [5]. - The report emphasizes that the stability of the investment sector is still dependent on improvements in sales and funding [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on quality real estate companies such as China Overseas Development, China Merchants Shekou, and others, which are expected to benefit from market rotation and recovery [5].