国泰海通主要观点如下： 7月价格降幅收窄，快递"反内卷"力度超预期，短期竞争压力趋缓，中长期继续保障良性竞争 7月快递件量同比+15.1%;顺丰深化落实激活经营，业务量同比+33.7%，增速持续领跑 1)全行业：2025年7月全国快递企业件量164.0亿件，同比+15.1%;2025年1-7月件量1120.5亿件，同比 +18.7%。小件化趋势持续、电商促销且退换货便捷，共同驱动2025年前7个月件量增速超过邮管局对 2025年全年件量增速超8%的预测。2)电商快递：圆通/韵达/申通2025年7月业务量分别同比 +20.8%/+7.6%/+11.9%;1-7月业务量分别同比+21.6%/+15.1%/+19.3%。3)直营快递：顺丰2025年7月业务 量同比+33.7%;1-7月业务量同比+26.9%，得益于落实激活经营策略，加大对前线业务的授权与激励，顺 丰件量增速3-7月连续领跑行业。 行业集中度持续集中，头部公司Q2市场份额环比提高 2022年初到2024年末，由于政策监管下价格竞争相对温和，份额向头部集中较缓慢。1)全行业：2025年 1-7月快递行业CR8为86.9，同比提升1.7，反映出2025年 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国海快递发布研报称，7月快递业务量增速与实物网上零售额增速形成剪刀差， 2025年快递小件化趋势延续，催化快递包裹同比快速增长。行业价格战7月仍延续，但8月反内卷背景 下，单票价格或有所修复。鉴于快递行业多条主线均存在布局的机会，维持快递行业"推荐"评级。加盟 快递在反内卷背景下，业绩有望修复，关注申通快递(002468.SZ)、韵达股份(002120.SZ)、圆通速递 (600233.SH)、中通快递-W(02057)。重点关注价值股顺丰控股(002352.SZ)。 ①量，2025年7月，一类地区/二类地区/三类地区快递业务量同比增速分别为+14.2%/+16.8%/+28.0%， 非产粮区业务量同比增速高于产粮区。②价，2025年7月，一类地区/二类地区/三类地区快递单票收入 同比增速分别为-4.7%/-7.2%/-12.1%。价格竞争主战场有向非产粮区转移趋势：1)非产粮区业务量增速 高于产粮区;2)产粮区多年竞争，价格与利润空间已近极限;3)非产粮区件量提升有望改善公司回程装载 率，有利于全网成本节降。 ①量，2025年7月，快递行业业务量同比增速(15.1%)>实物网上零售额同比 ...

Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express reported its Q2 2025 earnings, achieving a revenue of 11.832 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, while adjusted net profit was 2.053 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27%, meeting expectations [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In Q2 2025, the company handled 9.847 billion parcels, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.5%, indicating a recovery in parcel volume growth [2] - The adjusted net profit of 2.053 billion yuan in Q2 represents a decline of 27% year-on-year, with profit per parcel dropping to 0.21 yuan, down 0.12 yuan year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of price wars [2] Group 2: Industry Trends - The express delivery industry is experiencing a price increase driven by a reversal of the previous competitive environment, with both top-down and bottom-up pressures for price hikes [2] - The linkage between Guangdong and Yiwu demonstrates a commitment to eliminating price disparities, which is expected to support delivery fees and stabilize the industry [2] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Rating - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, now expecting adjusted net profits of 8.993 billion, 9.527 billion, and 10.689 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -11%, 6%, and 12% [2] - The average valuation of comparable companies in the industry is higher than that of ZTO Express, leading to a maintained "buy" rating despite the downward adjustment in profit expectations [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the logistics industry [1] Core Insights - In July 2025, the express delivery industry experienced a year-on-year business volume growth of 15.1%, outpacing the growth of physical online retail sales at 8.3% and social consumer retail sales at 3.7% [6][14] - The trend of small parcel delivery continues, driving rapid growth in express package volume [14] - The average revenue per ticket in the express delivery industry was 7.36 yuan in July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.33% and a month-on-month decline of 1.76% [21] - The report anticipates a price recovery in August 2025 due to the "anti-involution" trend in the industry [6] Industry Volume and Price - In July 2025, the year-on-year growth rates for express delivery business volume in first, second, and third-tier regions were +14.2%, +16.8%, and +28.0%, respectively [34] - The average revenue per ticket in first, second, and third-tier regions showed year-on-year declines of -4.7%, -7.2%, and -12.1%, respectively [34] Company Performance - In July 2025, the express delivery business volume growth rates for YTO Express, Yunda, Shentong, and SF Express were +20.81%, +7.56%, +11.90%, and +33.69%, respectively, with the industry average at 15.1% [43] - The year-on-year decline in average revenue per ticket for YTO Express, Yunda, Shentong, and SF Express was -7.14%, -3.54%, -1.50%, and -14.02%, respectively [44]

东兴证券近日发布快递7月数据点评：件量增速继续放缓，各企业增速分化：7月全国快 递服务企业业务完成量164.0亿件，同比增长15.0%。分类型看，同城件业务量同比增长 8.8%，异地件增长16.1%。行业件量增速3月以来缓慢下行，与去年同期基数较高有一定关 系，也与以价换量模式边际效益递减有关。 以下为研究报告摘要： 事件：7月全国快递服务企业业务完成量164.0亿件，同比增长15.0%。行业件量增速缓 慢下降。 价"行为，并将此纳入企业信用评价。7月29日，召开快递企业座谈会，就多项突出问题整 治，促进行业高质量发展进行座谈交流。 各地也相应出台反内卷政策，包括但不限于：义乌市邮政管理局召开会议，将快递价格 在1.1元/票底价基础上涨价0.1元/票至1.2元/票，自7月18日起生效；8月1日广东省邮政管理 局召开反对"内卷式"竞争工作座谈会，要求积极推动解决快递末端网络不稳定、从业人员权 益保障不到位等突出问题。且有消息称8月5日起，广东省快递底价整体上调0.4元/票，均价 涨至1.4元/票以上，基层网点派费增加0.1元/票；北京市快递协会于8月5日发布《倡议 书》，杜绝通过不合理低价争抢市场份额；摒弃"价 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by over 5% [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the national express delivery service volume reached 16.4 billion pieces in July, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.0%. However, the growth rate is gradually declining, influenced by high base effects from the previous year and diminishing returns from the price-for-volume strategy [3][11]. - There is a notable divergence in growth rates among companies, with SF Express leading the industry with over 30% growth since April. In contrast, YTO Express shows growth above the industry average, while Shentong and Yunda are below it [4][11]. - The report discusses the impact of recent anti-involution policies aimed at curbing excessive competition and price wars, which may lead to a stabilization of prices in the industry [5][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - In July, the express delivery service volume was 16.4 billion pieces, with a year-on-year increase of 15.0%. The growth in same-city deliveries was 8.8%, while intercity deliveries grew by 16.1%. The overall growth rate has been slowly declining since March due to high previous year comparisons and diminishing returns from aggressive pricing strategies [3][14]. 2. Company Performance - SF Express has maintained a significant growth rate of over 30% since April, while YTO Express has outperformed the industry average. Shentong and Yunda have shown lower growth rates compared to the industry average [4][21]. - The average revenue per piece for the industry has slightly decreased, with YTO, Shentong, and Yunda experiencing year-on-year declines of 7.1%, 1.5%, and 3.5% respectively. Yunda's revenue decline has slowed, indicating limited room for further price reductions, while YTO's decline continues to widen [5][35]. 3. Pricing Dynamics - The report notes a slight decrease in the average price per piece in July, with a year-on-year decline of 5.3%. The pricing pressure from YTO on Shentong and Yunda has contributed to their slower growth rates [33][37]. - Recent anti-involution measures have been implemented to stabilize pricing, including regulatory actions against below-cost pricing and promoting industry self-discipline [12][49]. 4. Market Structure - The report indicates that the industry concentration ratio (CR8) was 86.9 in July, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.7, while remaining stable compared to the previous month. The market share of the four listed companies reached 50.6%, slightly up from 50.0% year-on-year [42][43]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the ongoing price competition is forcing companies to focus on service quality and transition towards higher-value offerings. The emphasis on service quality is expected to become a key trend in the industry as companies adapt to changing market dynamics [48].

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China showed strong growth in July 2025, with revenue reaching 120.64 billion yuan and volume at 16.4 billion pieces, marking year-on-year increases of 8.9% and 15.1% respectively [1][2] - Cumulatively, from January to July 2025, the industry generated 839.42 billion yuan in revenue, a 9.9% increase year-on-year, and handled 112.05 billion pieces, reflecting an 18.7% growth [1][2] Industry Data - In July 2025, major express companies reported the following revenue and volume figures: SF Express at 18.657 billion yuan (+15.0%), Shentong at 4.287 billion yuan (+10.0%), Yunda at 4.120 billion yuan (+3.8%), and YTO at 5.371 billion yuan (+12.1%) [3] - The volume for these companies was 1.377 billion, 2.181 billion, 2.162 billion, and 2.583 billion pieces respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 33.7%, 11.9%, 7.6%, and 20.8% [3] - For the first seven months of 2025, the revenue figures were: SF Express at 127.812 billion yuan (+10.9%), Shentong at 28.980 billion yuan (+14.8%), Yunda at 28.851 billion yuan (+7.1%), and YTO at 37.943 billion yuan (+13.9%) [4] - The volume for the same period was 9.190 billion, 14.528 billion, 14.888 billion, and 17.446 billion pieces, with growth rates of 26.9%, 19.3%, 15.1%, and 21.6% respectively [4] Market Trends - The express delivery industry is benefiting from changes in demand, such as the trend towards lighter and smaller packages, an increase in reverse logistics, and the advantages of lower-tier markets [5] - The growth in volume is significantly outpacing the retail sales growth (+4.8%) and the growth in online retail sales (+6.3%), indicating strong demand resilience [5] - The industry is experiencing a price war, which is impacting per-package revenue, but there are signs of a shift towards more orderly competition as major players adjust their strategies [5] Investment Recommendations - The express delivery sector is currently viewed as undervalued, with expectations of continued growth driven by the expanding e-commerce market and new demands from lower-tier markets [6] - Companies to watch include leading e-commerce express firms such as ZTO Express, YTO Express, Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu Express, as well as SF Express, which is expected to benefit from cyclical improvements in the mid-to-high-end market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is experiencing a "volume increase and price decrease" situation, with companies shifting focus from price competition to quality and service improvement [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In July, major express delivery companies reported varying revenue growth, with Shentong Express seeing a 9.95% increase in revenue but a 1.50% decrease in revenue per package [1]. - YTO Express reported a 12.08% increase in revenue but a 7.20% decrease in revenue per package [1]. - Yunda Holdings experienced a 3.75% revenue growth with a 3.54% drop in revenue per package [1]. - SF Express's logistics and supply chain business saw a 9.95% revenue increase, while revenue per package fell by 14.02% [1]. Group 2: Strategic Shifts - Companies are moving away from the "price for volume" model to focus on quality and service upgrades, as stated by Shentong Express's management [2]. - The industry is expected to transition from "price wars" to "value wars," emphasizing service quality to gain market share [2]. - Experts predict that with ongoing anti-involution policies, leading companies will accelerate their shift towards service and efficiency competition, potentially improving industry profit margins within one to two years [2]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The express delivery industry is increasingly adopting intelligent and digital applications to enhance operational efficiency, such as automated sorting and big data for route optimization [3]. - Digital management is improving supply chain transparency and customer experience [3]. - Long-term, technology-driven advancements are expected to accelerate industry consolidation, putting pressure on smaller logistics companies to transform, while leading firms with technological capabilities will dominate the market [3].

Summary of Conference Call on the Express Delivery Industry Industry Overview - The express delivery industry is experiencing a significant price increase, with prices in Yiwu rising to 1.4 RMB per item after two previous increases in August, aligning with Guangdong prices. This is part of a strategy to secure market share and combat internal competition [1][3] - The competition in the express delivery sector is expected to ease in the second half of the year, with improved profitability anticipated during the peak season in Q4 [1][5] Key Points and Arguments - **Price Increases and Market Dynamics**: - The express delivery prices in various regions are expected to rise, with Zhejiang, Fujian, and Anhui following suit with increases ranging from 0.3 to 0.5 RMB [1][3] - The industry saw a year-on-year business volume growth of 18.7% from January to July 2025, indicating strong demand that supports price increases [1][7] - **Impact of Social Security Regulations**: - New social security regulations are increasing labor costs for delivery networks, with an estimated cost increase of approximately 0.11 RMB per item based on a national average social security base of 4,500 RMB [1][6] - If 30% of delivery personnel are already paying social security, the cost impact per item would be reduced to 0.08 RMB and 0.16 RMB under different payment scenarios [1][6] - **Profitability Projections**: - If stable price increases are maintained, profit growth for major companies in 2026 is projected as follows: Zhongtong 21%, Yuantong 26%, Yunda 30%, and Shentong 31% [2][8] - In a scenario where price increases are consistent and sustained through the peak season, profit growth could be even higher: Zhongtong 31%, Yuantong 46%, Yunda 66%, and Shentong 77% [2][8] Additional Important Insights - **E-commerce Impact**: - The logistics cost constitutes a small percentage of the overall e-commerce transaction value, with an average order value of 75 RMB and logistics costs of 2 to 3 RMB, which is less than 5% [1][7] - Even with a price increase of 0.5 RMB, the additional logistics cost would account for less than 1% of the total, indicating minimal impact on e-commerce operations [1][7] - **Company Recommendations**: - Short-term focus on companies like Shentong, Yunda, and Jitu Express, which are expected to benefit from the anti-internal competition policies [4][9] - Long-term focus on stronger networks such as Zhongtong and Yuantong, with SF Express also showing potential due to advancements in AI and autonomous vehicle technologies [4][10] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding the express delivery industry, highlighting the ongoing price adjustments, regulatory impacts, and profitability forecasts for major players in the market.

Industry Overview - In July 2025, the express delivery industry in China reported a business revenue of 120.64 billion yuan and a business volume of 16.40 billion pieces, representing year-on-year growth of 8.9% and 15.1% respectively [1] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative express delivery business revenue reached 839.42 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, while the cumulative business volume was 112.05 billion pieces, growing by 18.7% year-on-year [1] Company Performance in July 2025 - SF Express led the industry with a business revenue of 18.657 billion yuan and a volume of 1.377 billion pieces, achieving a revenue growth of 15.0% and a volume growth of 33.7% year-on-year [2] - Other companies reported the following revenues and volume: Shentong (4.287 billion yuan, +10.0%, 2.181 billion pieces, +11.9%), Yunda (4.120 billion yuan, +3.8%, 2.162 billion pieces, +7.6%), and YTO (5.371 billion yuan, +12.1%, 2.583 billion pieces, +20.8%) [2] - The market shares for these companies were as follows: SF Express (8.4%), Shentong (13.3%), Yunda (13.2%), and YTO (15.8%) [2] Company Performance from January to July 2025 - For the first seven months of 2025, SF Express reported a business revenue of 127.812 billion yuan (+10.9%) and a volume of 9.190 billion pieces (+26.9%) [3] - Other companies' revenues and volumes were: Shentong (28.980 billion yuan, +14.8%, 14.528 billion pieces, +19.3%), Yunda (28.851 billion yuan, +7.1%, 14.888 billion pieces, +15.1%), and YTO (37.943 billion yuan, +13.9%, 17.446 billion pieces, +21.6%) [3] - The market shares for these companies were: SF Express (8.2%), Shentong (13.0%), Yunda (13.3%), and YTO (15.6%) [3] Pricing and Competition Trends - The trend towards lighter and smaller packages, along with intensified price competition, has impacted the industry’s single-ticket revenue [4] - A recent meeting by the postal bureau emphasized the need to combat excessive competition, suggesting a shift towards more orderly competition in the express delivery sector [4] - As price increases are gradually implemented, the profitability of express delivery companies is expected to improve, reducing the likelihood of a return to the severe price wars seen in 2020 [4] Investment Outlook - The express delivery sector is currently viewed as undervalued, with continued growth in the e-commerce market and new demand from lower-tier markets and reverse logistics [4] - Companies such as ZTO Express, YTO Express, Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu Express are recommended for attention due to their potential in the growing market [4] - With improving cyclical expectations, there are opportunities for demand recovery in the mid-to-high-end express market, making SF Express a recommended focus for investment [4]