证券研究报告：农林牧渔|深度报告 发布时间：2025-05-28 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 2616.19 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 2839.2 | | 52 | 周最低 | 2110.64 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） -26% -22% -18% -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 2024-05 2024-08 2024-10 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 农林牧渔 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:王琦 SAC 登记编号:S1340522100001 Email:wangqi2022@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《猪价偏弱运行，供应压力增大》 - 2025.05.26 出栏环比小降，产能僵持 ⚫ 4 月上市猪企出栏总结：价涨量减 4 月生猪养殖端利润尚可，但因对后市预期谨慎，上市猪企出栏 节奏、出栏体重、价格均小幅波动： 1）量：环比小降。19 家上市公司共出栏生猪 1671.5 万头，环比 下降 2.4%，同比增长 26.3% ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Agricultural Theme Index (000122) opened high but fluctuated, closing down 0.55% at 1480.77 points with a trading volume of 4.544 billion yuan [1] - Over the past month, the Shanghai Agricultural Theme Index has increased by 0.74%, by 5.47% over the past three months, and by 1.31% year-to-date [1] - The index consists of 50 listed companies involved in agricultural products, agricultural machinery, fertilizers and pesticides, and veterinary drugs, reflecting the overall performance of agricultural theme stocks in the Shanghai market [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Agricultural Theme Index is fully composed of stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a market segment allocation of 100% [2] - The index sample's industry composition shows that major consumption accounts for 84.89%, raw materials for 12.32%, and industrial for 2.79% [2] - The index samples are adjusted every six months, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [2]

| 股东名称 | 四川巨星企业集团有限公司 | | --- | --- | | 本次解质股份 | 110,000 股 | | 占所持股份比例 | 0.07% | | 占公司总股本比例 | 0.02% | | 解质时间 | 2025 年 5 月 27 日 | | 持股数量 | 150,967,538 股 | | 持股比例 | 29.60% | | 剩余被质押股份数量 | 97,600,000 股 | | 剩余被质押股份数量占其所持股份比例 | 64.65% | | 剩余被质押股份数量占公司总股本比例 | 19.13% | 一、本次股份解除质押情况 本次解除质押股份暂无后续质押计划。未来如有变化，公司将根据实际情况 及时履行信息披露义务。 | 证券代码：603477 | 证券简称：巨星农牧 | 公告编号：2025-049 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：113648 | 债券简称：巨星转债 | | 乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司 关于控股股东部分股份解除质押暨延期购回的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担 ...

Group 1 - The China Livestock Breeding Index (930707) decreased by 0.55% as of May 28, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - Leading gainers included Juxing Agriculture (603477) up by 1.41%, while the biggest loser was Ruipubio (300119) down by 3.28% [1] - The Livestock ETF (516760) fell by 0.63%, currently priced at 0.63 yuan [2] Group 2 - Muyuan Foods announced plans for a Hong Kong listing to enhance overseas business development, leveraging experience in disease prevention and pig farming technology [2] - The launch of the world's first self-propelled water body natural exchange aquaculture vessel, "Bay Area Lingding," marks a new era in deep-sea aquaculture technology in China [2] - According to Founder Securities, short-term pig prices may remain volatile, with a balanced supply-demand situation expected in the second half of the year, leading to optimistic profit forecasts for pig farming companies [2] Group 3 - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Livestock Breeding Index accounted for 69.38% of the index, including companies like Haida Group (002311) and Muyuan Foods (002714) [3]

Group 1: Agricultural Sector Insights - The agricultural sector's performance saw a decline, with the HuShen 300 index down by 0.18% and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector down by 0.36% during the week of May 19-25, 2025 [4] - Pig prices showed a mixed trend, with the average price of external three yuan pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan at 14.05, 15.39, and 14.25 yuan per kilogram respectively, reflecting a week-on-week change of -2.09%, +0.65%, and -3.72% [4] - The report highlights the potential recovery in the feed industry due to declining upstream raw material prices and improving downstream farming conditions, particularly for Hai Da Group, which is expected to see an upward trend in its business fundamentals [4] Group 2: AI Computing Industry Insights - The AI computing industry is experiencing sustained high demand, particularly from the internet and intelligent computing centers, with a rapid push for domestic procurement of AI computing power [6] - Major domestic AI chip manufacturers like Huawei, Haiguang Information, and Cambricon are accelerating their performance and capacity breakthroughs, with Huawei's Ascend 910B chip being comparable to NVIDIA's A100 [6] - The AI server market is projected to grow significantly, with IDC forecasting that the market size will reach 25.3 billion USD by 2028, driven by strong demand from domestic internet companies and intelligent computing centers [6]

Core Viewpoint - Sichuan Province is advancing high-quality development in the livestock industry through a draft proposal that includes ten measures aimed at enhancing the overall competitiveness of the sector [1] Group 1: Industry Development Measures - The draft proposal focuses on multiple aspects of high-quality development, including production incentive policies, cost reduction for farms, animal disease prevention, and strengthening leading enterprises in the livestock sector [1] - Specific measures include supporting the upgrade of facilities in large-scale farms, promoting mechanization and automation in livestock farming, and fostering strong leading enterprises to enhance industry quality and efficiency [1] - The proposal aims to cultivate well-known regional brands and public brands for Sichuan's livestock products, enhancing their market presence [1] Group 2: Company Responses and Industry Trends - Notable companies in Sichuan, such as New Hope Liuhe Co., Ltd. and Leshan Juxing Agricultural and Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd., are actively pursuing digital transformation and cost reduction strategies that align with the draft proposal [2] - New Hope is integrating AI and IoT technologies into its operations, showcasing its commitment to creating a "smart farming ecosystem" and leading the industry in technological advancements [2] - The industry is moving towards intelligent and intensive development, with expectations of increased production efficiency and concentration of competitive capacity among leading enterprises [3]

Group 1 - The overall performance of the agricultural sector, particularly the pig farming industry, is currently under pressure, with the average pig price showing a decline in several key provinces [1] - The average price of pork is 20.95 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight increase of 0.05% week-on-week, while the average price of piglets remains stable at 28.00 yuan/kg [1] - The self-breeding profit stands at 48.21 yuan per head, while the profit from purchasing piglets is negative at -16.06 yuan per head, indicating challenges in the market [1] Group 2 - The feed industry is expected to see a recovery in its business environment due to falling raw material prices and improving conditions in the breeding sector, with Hai Da Group positioned for potential growth [2] - The current cycle in the pig farming industry is characterized by a focus on reducing debt rather than rapidly increasing production capacity, with expectations for profitability to begin in Q2 2024 [2] - The market may be overly pessimistic regarding the impact of rising pig production capacity on profitability, potentially overlooking the positive effects of declining raw material costs and anticipated demand recovery in 2025 [2] Group 3 - The poultry industry, particularly the meat chicken sector, may experience performance improvements driven by new demand in 2025, with Saint Agriculture positioned at the bottom of its performance and valuation cycle [3] - The year 2025 is anticipated to be crucial for pet food brands, with a focus on brands that can lead market trends and show profit improvements, recommending domestic brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company announces that the "Giant Star Convertible Bond" is expected to trigger conditions for a downward adjustment of the conversion price due to the stock price being below 80% of the conversion price for ten trading days [1] Group 1: Convertible Bond Basic Information - The company issued a total of 1 billion yuan of convertible bonds on April 25, 2022, with a face value of 100 yuan per bond and a six-year term [2] - The bonds were listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on May 17, 2022, under the name "Giant Star Convertible Bond" and code "113648" [3] Group 2: Conversion Price Adjustment - The initial conversion price was set at 25.24 yuan per share, which was adjusted to 25.21 yuan per share effective from August 8, 2023, following a profit distribution plan approved at the annual shareholders' meeting [4][5] - The adjustment conditions state that if the stock price is below 80% of the conversion price for at least 15 out of 30 consecutive trading days, the board may propose a downward adjustment of the conversion price [6] Group 3: Triggering Conditions for Price Adjustment - From April 28, 2025, to May 26, 2025, the company's stock price has been below 20.168 yuan (80% of the adjusted conversion price) for ten trading days, indicating a potential trigger for the price adjustment [5][6] - If the stock price continues to meet the criteria in the next 13 trading days, the adjustment clause may be triggered [6] Group 4: Compliance and Disclosure Obligations - The company is required to hold a board meeting on the day the adjustment condition is triggered to decide whether to adjust the conversion price and must disclose the decision by the next trading day [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][35] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector index has shown a slight decline of 0.36%, ranking 15th among 31 primary industries in the market [4][12] - The pig price has been weak, with an average price of 14.46 CNY/kg as of May 23, 2025, down 1.12% from the previous week [5][16] - The supply pressure in the pig market is increasing due to high historical weights of pigs being marketed and a stable breeding sow inventory [5][18] - The profitability of self-bred pigs is around 48 CNY per head, which has decreased by 32 CNY per head compared to the previous week [17][19] - The white feather chicken market is stable, with chick prices at 3.00 CNY per chick and a slight increase in meat chicken prices [27][28] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The agricultural sector index has decreased by 0.36%, with the overall market indices also showing declines [12][14] - The performance of sub-sectors varies, with the pet sector showing resilience while meat chicken and seed sectors have faced more significant adjustments [13] 2. Livestock Industry Tracking 2.1 Pigs - The average pig price is 14.46 CNY/kg, reflecting a downward trend since mid-May [5][16] - Supply pressures are attributed to high weights of marketed pigs and a stable breeding sow inventory [5][18] - Profit margins for self-bred pigs are decreasing, while external pig purchases are currently unprofitable [17][19] 2.2 White Feather Chicken - Chick prices remain stable, with a slight increase in meat chicken prices [27][28] - The industry is observing a shift towards domestic breeding due to uncertainties in imports caused by avian influenza outbreaks [27][28] 3. Planting Industry Tracking - Sugar prices have shown a slight decline, while soybean prices have increased by 2.1% [30] - Cotton prices have risen slightly, and corn prices have remained stable with minor fluctuations [30][31]

一、 巨星转债基本情况 （一）可转债发行情况 经中国证券监督管理委员会（以下简称"中国证监会"）证监许可[2022]663 号核准，公司于 2022 年 4 月 25 日向社会公开发行了面值总额 100,000.00 万元的可 转换公司债券，每张面值为人民币 100.00 元，发行数量 1,000 万张，发行价格为人 民币 100.00 元/张，期限 6 年，本次发行的票面利率：第一年 0.40%、第二年 0.60%、 第三年 1.00%、第四年 1.50%、第五年 2.25%、第六年 3.00%。 | 证券代码：603477 | 证券简称：巨星农牧 | 公告编号：2025-048 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：113648 | 债券简称：巨星转债 | | 乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司 关于"巨星转债"预计触发转股价格向下修正条件的 提示性公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： "巨星转债"本次触发转股价格向下修正条件的期间从 2025 年 4 月 28 日起算，截止 20 ...