行 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 曹曼 A0230520120003 caoman@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹曼 (8621)23297818× caoman@swsresearch.com 两部门发文落实专项债收地，贝壳获纳港股通 看好 ——地产及物管行业周报（2025/03/08-2025/03/14） 房地产 2025 年 03 月 16 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 本期投资提示： 业 点 评 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 报 告 ⚫ 地产行业数据：二手成交周环比略降，新房成交周环比上升、成交推盘比下降。上周 （25/3/8-25/3/14）34 个重点城市新房合计成交 227 万平米，环比+5%；其中，一二 线环比+3%、三四线环比+23%；3 月一手房月成交同比+44%，较 2 月-28.5pct；其 中，一二线同比+4%、三四线同比-26%，分别较 2 月-8pct 和+16pct。上周 13 个重 点城市二手房成交 145 ...

证券研究报告 房地产 土地收储指引更加明晰，落地进程有 望提速 华泰研究 2025 年 3 月 11 日│中国内地 动态点评 3 月 11 日，自然资源部、财政部发布《关于做好运用地方政府专项债券支 持土地储备有关工作的通知》。相较于 24 年 11 月的自然资源部文件（明确 了收地范围、价格和用途，具体可参考我们的报告《收地指引出炉，关注三 大要点》（24.11.11）），本次文件增量信息在于：1、进一步规范收地范围； 2、明确申报审核流程；3、强调资金和收益的综合平衡。根据中指院的数据， 截至 3 月 10 日，广东、四川、吉林、江西等已公示拟使用专项债券收地的 金额约 500 亿元；同时，北京、广东已率先发行用于土地储备的专项债券共 424 亿元，其中广东的 307 亿元全部用于回收闲置土地。我们预计规范文件 的持续出台有望给予地方政府更加明晰的操作指引，加速专项债券收地的落 地，从而平衡土地供需、改善房企流动性，进一步筑牢"止跌回稳"的趋势。 增量信息 1：进一步规范收地范围 本次文件指出，各地要优先将处置存量闲置土地清单中的地块纳入土地储备 计划，24 年 11 月 7 日之后供应的土地不列入存量闲 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, indicating an optimistic outlook for the industry [5][74]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the real estate market is expected to experience a structural strength while overall volume remains weak, with a forecast of a bottoming out in the market [5][34]. - It emphasizes the importance of the residents' balance sheet and housing prices as key determinants of market dynamics [5][6]. Market Overview - The current market situation shows that demand is supported while supply is constrained, suggesting a potential reversal in supply-demand dynamics, particularly in first and second-tier cities by 2025 [6][65]. - The report notes that since 2021, the real estate market has undergone significant adjustments, with a notable decline in new housing sales while second-hand housing transactions have increased [38][71]. Demand and Supply Analysis - The total housing transaction volume is projected to decline to 1.39 billion square meters in 2024, below the estimated mid-term demand of 1.43 billion square meters, indicating underlying demand support [6][39]. - The overall inventory level is high at 4.5 billion square meters, with a significant portion concentrated in third and fourth-tier cities, leading to a short-term effective inventory shortage in first and second-tier cities [58][65]. Financial Metrics - The report estimates that the national second-hand housing prices have dropped by 31% since 2021, significantly impacting the residents' asset-liability ratio, which is expected to reach 13.2% by 2024 [6][44][49]. - The housing market's total value is projected to decline to 285 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, reflecting a cumulative drop of 27% from the peak in 2021 [6][44]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that by 2025, new housing sales will decrease by 4.5%, while second-hand housing sales are expected to increase by 6.2%, indicating a shift in market dynamics [71][69]. - It predicts that the real estate sector will see a structural rebound, particularly in first and second-tier cities, with quality real estate companies likely to replicate the supply-side reform logic seen in the coal industry [5][74]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality real estate companies such as Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, and Poly Developments, among others, while also highlighting opportunities in undervalued firms and those benefiting from urban renewal policies [5][74].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][4][10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the expansion of urban renewal and old housing renovation, with a focus on including residential areas built before 2000 in the urban renewal scope, which is expected to enhance residents' autonomy in housing choices [3][5][6]. - It highlights the government's commitment to accelerate the acquisition of existing residential properties and grant local governments greater autonomy regarding acquisition subjects, prices, and purposes, which is anticipated to boost the real estate market [3][8][10]. - The construction of high-quality housing is identified as a new avenue for industrial transformation, with significant potential for growth in the high-quality residential market due to unmet demand [3][9][10]. Summary by Sections Urban Renewal and Housing Renovation - Since the implementation of urban renewal in 2019, 280,000 old urban residential areas have been renovated, benefiting 120 million residents [5]. - The inclusion of residential areas built before 2000 in the urban renewal scope aims to enhance living conditions and provide more choices for residents [6][7]. Government Initiatives - The government aims to revitalize existing land and commercial properties, with a focus on acquiring existing residential properties and providing local governments with more autonomy in the acquisition process [3][8]. - A special local government bond of 4.4 trillion yuan has been allocated to support investment in construction, land acquisition, and the purchase of existing residential properties [3][8]. High-Quality Housing Development - The report notes that the demand for high-quality housing is expected to rise significantly, driven by demographic changes and an increase in the number of families seeking improved living conditions [3][10]. - The current supply of high-quality housing is insufficient to meet the growing demand, indicating a substantial opportunity for growth in this segment [3][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong product capabilities, undervalued firms, and those benefiting from urban renewal and acquisition policies, including specific companies such as China Overseas Land & Investment and Poly Developments [3][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook for related stocks [8]. Core Insights - The government work report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market and gradually resolving risks while implementing policies effectively in 2025 [1][2]. - The report highlights a collaborative effort between fiscal and monetary policies to support the real estate market, with a target GDP growth of around 5% for 2025 [2]. - The focus on supply-side policies, including optimizing land use and enhancing the autonomy of local governments in land acquisition, is crucial for the industry's recovery [3][4]. - Demand-side measures will be tailored to specific cities, with potential easing of restrictions in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen [4]. Summary by Sections Government Policy Direction - The government work report outlines a clear direction for real estate policies, emphasizing risk management and the importance of the sector to the national economy [1]. - The report indicates that the core of the 2025 real estate policy will be "implementation," with a focus on the details of land acquisition and storage [1]. Fiscal and Monetary Measures - The report proposes a more proactive fiscal policy with a deficit rate increase to around 4% and plans for local government special bonds totaling 4.4 trillion yuan, aimed at investment and land acquisition [2]. - Monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with a potential decrease in the 5-year LPR, which would lower mortgage rates and ease the financial burden on homebuyers [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - On the supply side, the report stresses the need to optimize urban space and land use, while also revitalizing existing land and commercial properties [3]. - The demand side will see policies that encourage the renovation of urban villages and old housing, aiming to unlock housing demand [4]. Risk Management - The report highlights the importance of risk prevention, particularly in relation to real estate financing and the protection of homebuyers [7]. - The establishment of a real estate financing coordination mechanism is noted, with over 6 trillion yuan in loans approved to support housing projects [7]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on high-quality real estate companies and cities that are likely to benefit from policy changes, particularly in first-tier and select second-tier cities [8]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include those with strong fundamentals and those benefiting from debt reduction and inventory clearance [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and real estate services sectors [5]. Core Insights - The market heat is gradually recovering, influenced by the Spring Festival and the 924 policy, with a notable year-on-year sales increase of 6.7% in February, despite a month-on-month decrease of 5.4% [1]. - The sales thresholds for the top 10 real estate companies have significantly increased, indicating a more competitive landscape [2]. - Central state-owned enterprises continue to outperform private firms in terms of sales growth, with a year-on-year increase of 9.2% for central enterprises compared to a decline of 23.5% for private enterprises [3]. - Signs of stabilization in the housing market are emerging, particularly in key cities where resource reserves are abundant, suggesting potential for valuation recovery for companies in these areas [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In February, the sales amount for the top 100 real estate companies decreased by 5.4% month-on-month but increased by 6.7% year-on-year, with a cumulative sales amount for January-February showing a slight decline of 1.4% year-on-year [1]. - The KMI index for new and second-hand housing transactions in 50 cities indicates a recovery, with week-on-week increases of 6.7% and 12.6%, respectively [1]. Company Performance - The sales thresholds for the top 10, 20, 30, 50, and 100 real estate companies reached 128 billion, 51 billion, 34 billion, 16 billion, and 6 billion respectively, with the top 10 showing a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [2]. - Among the top 50 companies, 19 reported year-on-year sales growth, with six companies achieving over 50% growth [3]. Future Outlook - The report highlights a positive outlook for companies with substantial resource reserves in key cities, recommending specific companies such as Chengdu Investment Holdings and China Merchants Shekou [4]. - The report emphasizes the potential for valuation recovery and stable cash flow for property management companies as the market stabilizes [4].

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, the real estate industry is undergoing significant restructuring, with the number of billion-dollar real estate companies decreasing to 11. China Merchants Shekou (001979.SZ) stands out with a total sales amount of 219.3 billion yuan, ranking fifth in the sales list by CRIC, demonstrating resilience and maintaining its position in the top tier of the industry [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of the end of the reporting period in 2024, China Merchants Shekou reported a cash balance of 100.35 billion yuan, an increase of 12.06 billion yuan or 13.66% year-on-year. The cash-to-short-term debt ratio improved to 1.58, up by 0.3 [1]. - The company achieved a total signed sales area of 9.359 million square meters and a signed sales amount of 219.3 billion yuan in 2024, with a peak monthly sales amount of 30.239 billion yuan in December [3]. Land Acquisition Strategy - China Merchants Shekou focuses its land investment strategy on first-tier and strong second-tier cities, particularly in the "Strong Heart 30 Cities" and "Core 6+10 Cities," with resource allocation increasingly directed towards cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Shenzhen [1][2]. - In December 2024, the company invested 10.115 billion yuan to acquire eight premium land parcels in core cities, with a significant portion of rights in two parcels in Baoshan District, Shanghai, reaching 70% [2]. Asset Quality and Product Development - The company proactively recognized asset impairments totaling 5.9 billion yuan, which may impact short-term profits but is expected to enhance asset quality for long-term stability [3]. - China Merchants Shekou restructured its product system with a "Chief Designer Product Manager System," launching four product lines to better meet market demands. In 2024, it delivered 95,000 housing units and upgraded its "Delivery as Service" system [3]. REITs and Operational Strategy - In 2024, China Merchants Shekou's rental housing REIT (code: 180502) was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, raising 1.3635 billion yuan with a subscription multiple of 103.66 times, marking a new high for the year [4]. - The company has established a comprehensive REITs layout across three major asset operation sectors: industrial parks, long-term rental apartments, and commercial offices, revitalizing over 14.2 billion yuan of existing assets since 2019 [4]. Property Services and Technological Innovation - The property service arm, China Merchants Jiyu, has enhanced operational efficiency through AI technology, achieving a fivefold increase in work order efficiency and covering 97% of projects with high-altitude object warning systems [4]. - The company continues to deepen its Integrated Facility Management (IFM) sector, managing over 36 million square meters and serving high-profile clients like Huawei and Alibaba, consistently recognized as a "Gold Medal Supplier" in back-office services [4].

证券代码：001914 证券简称：招商积余 公告编号：2024-62 1 为进一步加强与投资者的互动交流，招商局积余产业运营服务股份有限公 司（以下简称"公司"）将参加由深圳证监局和深圳证券交易所指导、深圳上 市公司协会与深圳市全景网络有限公司联合举办的"2024 年度深圳辖区上市 公司集体接待日"活动，现将相关事项公告如下： 本次活动将采用网络远程的方式举行，投资者可登录"全景路演"网站 （http://rs.p5w.net），或关注微信公众号：全景财经，或下载全景路演 APP， 参与本次互动交流。活动时间为 2024 年 12 月 12 日（周四）14:30 至 17:00。 届时公司财务总监和董事会秘书将在线就公司业绩、公司治理、发展战略、经 营状况和可持续发展等投资者关心的问题，与投资者进行沟通与交流，欢迎广 大投资者踊跃参与。 特此公告 招商局积余产业运营服务股份有限公司 2024 年 12 月 5 日 招商局积余产业运营服务股份有限公司 关于参加 2024 年度深圳辖区上市公司集体接待日 活动的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 董 ...

一、招商局财务公司基本情况 招商局财务公司于 2011 年 5 月 17 日经原中国银行业监督管理委员会批准 正式成立，并取得《金融许可证》，是具有企业法人地位的非银行金融机构。 注册地：北京市朝阳区安定路 5 号院 10 号楼 B 栋 15 层 1501 法定代表人：周松 注册资本：人民币 50 亿元，其中招商局集团有限公司和中国外运长航集团 有限公司分别出资人民币 25.5 亿元和人民币 24.5 亿元，分别占比 51%和 49%。 统一社会信用代码：9111000071782949XA 招商局财务公司业务范围包括：吸收成员单位存款；办理成员单位贷款；办理成 员单位票据贴现；办理成员单位资金结算与收付；提供成员单位委托贷款、债券承销、 非融资性保函、财务顾问、信用鉴证及咨询代理业务；从事同业拆借；办理成员单位 票据承兑；办理成员单位产品买方信贷；从事固定收益类有价证券投资。 招商局积余产业运营服务股份有限公司 关于招商局集团财务有限公司的风险持续评估报告 招商局积余产业运营服务股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）查验了招商 局集团财务有限公司（以下简称"招商局财务公司"）的《金融许可证》《营业执 照》等证件 ...

本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 招商局积余产业运营服务股份有限公司 2023 年年度利润分配实施公告 一、股东大会审议通过利润分配方案等情况 1、2024 年 6 月 25 日，招商局积余产业运营服务股份有限公司（以下简称 "公司"或"本公司"）2023 年度股东大会审议通过了公司 2023 年年度利润分 配方案，具体内容为：以 2023 年末公司总股本 1,060,346,060 股为基数，向全体 股东每 10 股派发现金红利 1.70 元（含税），不送红股，不以公积金转增股本， 本次合计分配现金 180,258,830.20 元。本次利润分配方案实施时，如享有利润分 配权的股份总额发生变动，则以实施分配方案时股权登记日的享有利润分配权的 股份总额为基数，按照分配总额不变的原则对每股分红金额进行调整。 2、自上述利润分配方案披露至实施期间公司股本总额未发生变化。 3、本次实施的利润分配方案与股东大会审议通过的利润分配方案一致。 4、本次实施利润分配方案距离股东大会审议通过的时间未超过两个月。 二、本次实施的利润分配方案 公司 2023 年年度利润 ...