事件：2025 年4 月19 日，公司发布2024 年年报，全年实现收入127.02亿元，同比+15.28%，实现归母净 利润7.84 亿元，同比+28.00%，实现扣非归母净利润6.83 亿元，同比+17.54%。 盈利预测：预计2025-2027 年公司实现营收158.98、191.20、224.24 亿元，归母净利润10.51、14.08、 16.95 亿元，给予"强烈推荐"评级。 减值导致2024Q4 业绩承压，在手订单充沛。2024Q4 公司营收34.97 亿元，同比+15.57%，环比 +14.51%，归母净利润1.79 亿元，同比+6.40%，环比-10.91%，毛利率20.24%，同比-2.7pct，环比 +2.5pct，净利率6.05%，同比-0.26pct，环比-1.77pct，期间费用率11.27%，同比-2.57pct，环比 +1.67pct。公司2024Q4 业绩承压，主要系计提减值损失约1.3 亿元。分业务营收方面，2024 年公司乘用 车营收70.9 亿元，同比+30.63%，商用车与非道路营收41.8 亿元，同比-7.52%，数字与能源营收10.3 亿 元，同比+47.44%。 ...

毛利率方面，公司2024Q4单季度毛利率为20.24%，环比提升2.50个百分点，主要系2024Q3会 计准则调整导致低基数。 期间费用方面，公司2024Q4单季度期间费用率为11.27%，环比提升1.68个百分点；其中，销 售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为1.55%/5.37%/4.00%/0.35%，环比分别+2.74/-0.17/-0.91/+0.02个 百分点（销售费用率环比大幅提升主要系2024Q3会计政策调整导致2024Q3销售费用率低基 数）。 减值损失方面，公司2024Q4计提减值较多，其中资产减值损失0.84亿元，信用减值损失0.46亿 元，短期拖累利润。 未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 | 投资要点 | | --- | 事件： 公司发布2024年年度报告。2024年公司实现营业收入127.02亿元，同比增长15.28%；实现归母 净利润7.84亿元，同比增长28.00%。其中，2024Q4单季度公司实现营业收入34.97亿元，同比 增长15.57%，环比增长14.51%；实现归母净利润1.79亿元，同比增长6.40%，环比下降 10.91%。公司2024Q4业绩稍微低于我们之前的预期。 20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a steady growth in revenue and net profit for 2024, driven by its expansion in the electric vehicle thermal management sector and global operations [1][5]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 12.70 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.3% [1] - The gross margin for 2024 was 20.1%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 780 million yuan, up 28.0% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 680 million yuan, reflecting a 17.5% increase [1] Quarterly Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3.50 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.5% [2] - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 20.2%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year but up 2.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - The net profit for Q4 2024 was 179 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.4% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10.9% [2] Global Expansion - The company has initiated a five-year overseas development plan, focusing on enhancing its global supply chain and local manufacturing capabilities [3] - In 2024, the North American operations generated 200 million USD in revenue, a 50.5% increase year-on-year, marking the first profitable year for this segment [3] - The European segment achieved a revenue of 160 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.29% [3] New Business Lines - The company has been developing its third growth curve since 2021, focusing on digital and energy thermal management, with significant orders secured in 2023 [4] - In 2024, the company won major projects in diesel generator cooling modules, energy storage liquid cooling air conditioning, and other significant areas, with new orders in the digital energy sector totaling 953 million yuan [4] Future Projections - The company is expected to see revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 15.61 billion yuan in 2025, 18.47 billion yuan in 2026, and 21.76 billion yuan in 2027 [6] - Net profit projections for the same years are 1.09 billion yuan, 1.44 billion yuan, and 1.79 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.31 yuan, 1.72 yuan, and 2.15 yuan [6]

► 汽车热管理龙头走向全球 北美经营体年度首次实现盈利 01 事件概述 公司披露 2024 年年度报告， 2024 年全年实现营业收入 127.0 亿元，同比 +15.3% ，毛利率为 20.1% ，同比 -1.5pcts ，归母净利润 7.8 亿元，同比 +28.0% ，实现扣非 净利润 6.8 亿元，同比 +17.5% 。 02 分析判断 ► 2024Q4 业绩符合预期 海外经营体盈利能力显著提升 1 ）营收端： 公司 2024Q4 实现营业收入 35.0 亿元，同比 +15.6% ，环比 +14.5% ，我们认为主要增量来自新能源汽车热管理业务及数字与能源业务订单陆续释放。 2 ）利润 端： 公司 2024Q4 毛利率为 20.2% ，同比 -2.7pcts ，环比 +2.5pcts ，归母净利润为 1.79 亿元，同比 +6.4% ，环比 -10.9% 。 公司 2024Q4 业绩同比增长的主要原因为： 1 ）持 续通过多维度降本增效措施，聚焦经营利润率的提升； 2 ）在"属地化制造、全球化运营"方面取得成效，北美经营体实现自营业务扭亏为盈，贡献业绩增量；业绩环比下降的 主要原因为：单季度资产及信用减 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 202.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.28%, with Q4 revenue reaching 35 billion RMB, marking a historical high [4] - The passenger and new energy vehicle segment generated 70.9 billion RMB in revenue, up 30.6% year-on-year, with Q4 revenue of 21.79 billion RMB, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26% [4] - The commercial vehicle and non-road segment reported a revenue of 41.7 billion RMB, a decline of 7.52% year-on-year [4] - The digital and energy segment achieved 10.26 billion RMB in revenue, a growth of 47%, with Q4 revenue of 3.28 billion RMB, up 25% quarter-on-quarter [4] Group 2: International Sales - In 2024, overseas revenue reached 32.86 billion RMB, accounting for 25.87% of total revenue, an increase from 22.42% in 2023 [4] - North America generated 1.96 million USD in self-operated business revenue, a year-on-year increase of 50.47%, with a net profit of approximately 604,000 USD [4] - Europe reported self-operated revenue of 1.57 billion RMB, a growth of 31.29%, although still at a loss, with expectations of breakeven in 2025 [4] Group 3: Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 was 6.17%, an increase of 0.61% year-on-year, marking the third consecutive year of improvement [4] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 20.12%, a decrease of 1.45% compared to 2023, primarily due to accounting policy adjustments [4] - In Q4, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.79 billion RMB, with a non-recurring net profit of 1.33 billion RMB, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline due to one-time impacts [4] Group 4: Cost Management - The period expense ratio (excluding R&D expenses) was 7.22%, with a total expense ratio of 8.57%, a decrease of 0.32% year-on-year [5] - The reduction in expense ratio is attributed to scale effects and effective cost control measures [5] Group 5: New Project Acquisition - In 2024, the company secured over 300 new projects, with an estimated annual sales revenue of approximately 90.73 billion RMB [6] - Revenue breakdown by business: digital energy 9.53 billion RMB, new energy vehicles 68.43 billion RMB, and fuel vehicles & non-road business 12.77 billion RMB [6] Group 6: Emerging Business Developments - The company made significant progress in digital energy and embodied intelligence sectors, achieving breakthroughs in liquid cooling solutions for data centers [8] - In the robotics field, the company has obtained 10 patents and is focusing on key customer breakthroughs and external collaborations [8] Group 7: Risks and Opportunities - Short-term impacts from tariffs on profitability are limited, while long-term overseas capacity expansion is expected to accelerate order acquisition and enhance profitability [9] Group 8: Global Manufacturing Layout - The company has established production bases in the USA, Mexico, Poland, Malaysia, India, and Sweden, with plans for further global manufacturing enhancements in 2025 [11] - Specific developments include the completion of a third factory in Mexico and the operational launch of a passenger vehicle factory in Malaysia [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 12.702 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.28%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 784 million yuan, up 28.00% year-on-year [2] - The passenger vehicle business experienced rapid growth, with revenue reaching 7.090 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.63%, driven primarily by the performance of new energy vehicles [3] - The company's global expansion strategy has shown significant results, with North American revenue reaching 2.035 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.23%, and European revenue at 741 million yuan, up 17.16% [4] - The digital energy segment has accelerated growth, achieving revenue of 1.027 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.44%, with strong performance in data center cooling solutions [5] - The company's profitability continues to improve, with operating cash flow reaching 1.205 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.84%, and R&D investment of 573 million yuan, up 16.94% [6] - The company is proactively entering emerging fields such as robotics, having secured 10 patents in this area by the end of the reporting period [7] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 16.030 billion yuan for 2025, 18.883 billion yuan for 2026, and 21.574 billion yuan for 2027, with net profits expected to be 1.048 billion yuan, 1.251 billion yuan, and 1.503 billion yuan respectively [9] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.26 yuan, 1.50 yuan, and 1.80 yuan respectively [11] - The company maintains a healthy financial position with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 12.6% for 2024, increasing to 15.0% by 2027 [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing steady overall operations in Q4 2024, with continued global development [1] - The company has established four core advantages in technology, products, layout, and customers, which support the rapid growth of its new energy thermal management business [3] - The company has a comprehensive product layout in the new energy thermal management sector, focusing on both industrial and civilian markets, and is expanding its international presence [3] Financial Forecasts - The company's total revenue for 2023 is projected at 11,018 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 29.93%, and is expected to reach 12,702 million yuan in 2024, representing a 15.28% increase [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 612.14 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 59.71%, and is projected to be 783.53 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a 28.00% increase [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is expected to be 0.94 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 26.58 [1] Adjusted Profit Forecasts - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 1,070 million yuan and 1,309 million yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 1,567 million yuan [4] - The corresponding EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.28 yuan, 1.57 yuan, and 1.88 yuan respectively, with P/E ratios of 19.47, 15.91, and 13.29 [4] Market Performance - The company's stock closed at 24.95 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 20,827.83 million yuan [7] - The company has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 3.39 and a debt-to-asset ratio of 61.49% [8]

朝闻国盛 市场或将以时间换空间 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 04 21 年 月 日 【宏观】政策半月观—关键窗口、关键应对：4 月政治局会议前瞻—— 20250420 【宏观】财政大概率加码、节奏"两步走"—兼评 3 月财政——20250418 【策略研究】布局政策博弈窗口期——20250420 【金融工程】市场或将以时间换空间——20250420 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：资金面有所弱化——20250419 【固定收益】超长债面临的是风险还是机会？——20250420 【固定收益】财政支出提速——3 月财政数据点评——20250420 【固定收益】资金再度震荡，曲线再度走平——流动性和机构行为跟踪 ——20250419 【区块链】MCP 与 A2A 助力，AI Agent 进入互联时代——20250420 【银行】本周聚焦—2024 年末上市银行有多少 FV-OCI 浮盈？—— 20250420 【房地产】融资专题：房企流动性压力仍存，"保主体"动作首次出现— —20250418 ◼ 研究视点 【电力设备】ATL 加码固态电池负极材料，欧盟降息有 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhongjie Automotive is a leading global supplier of precision machining components for automotive thermal management systems, with applications covering well-known brands such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and BYD. The company's recent A-share listing provides a significant opportunity for expansion, breaking through capacity bottlenecks and enhancing its competitive position in the market [1][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - Zhongjie Automotive has been recognized as a national-level specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprise by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [1]. - The company operates as a secondary supplier in the automotive thermal management sector, producing components such as air conditioning heat exchangers and battery coolers, primarily for major first-tier suppliers like Mahle [3]. - The company's revenue has grown from 713 million yuan in 2022 to an estimated 978 million yuan in 2024, indicating a strong competitive position within its niche [3][4]. Group 2: Market Position and Competition - Despite its growth, Zhongjie Automotive's operational scale is not competitive compared to earlier-listed peers like Yinlun, Sanhua, and Tenglong, which have significantly larger revenues in the thermal management sector [4]. - The company has established stable partnerships with major clients, with over 64% of its revenue coming from five key customers in the first half of 2024 [3]. Group 3: Expansion Plans - The company plans to use 285 million yuan from its IPO for a "Digital Intelligent Factory Construction and Expansion Project," which will add an annual production capacity of 41.44 million automotive components [6]. - The projected revenue increase from this project is approximately 447 million yuan, with an expected profit growth of around 71 million yuan annually [6]. Group 4: R&D and Innovation - Zhongjie Automotive is heavily reliant on technological innovation, with core technology products accounting for nearly 94% of its revenue by the first half of 2024 [7]. - The company aims to invest 57 million yuan in a new R&D center to enhance its innovation capabilities and reduce product development cycles [7]. Group 5: New Energy Vehicle Market - The sales proportion of new energy vehicle components has increased significantly, from 6.41% in 2021 to 31.97% in the first half of 2024, indicating a strong market trend [1][7]. - The complexity and higher value of thermal management systems in new energy vehicles present substantial growth opportunities for Zhongjie Automotive, with potential revenue increases driven by the expanding market [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of 127.0 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 7.8 billion yuan, up 28.0% year-on-year [1]. - The company's performance in Q4 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 35.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%. The profit growth is attributed to cost reduction measures and improved profitability in overseas operations, particularly in North America [2][3]. - The company is focusing on global expansion, with significant achievements in North America, where it reported self-operated business revenue of 200 million USD, a 50.5% increase year-on-year, marking its first profitable year [3]. - The company is developing a third growth curve through its digital and energy management division, securing substantial orders in 2024, including projects in energy storage and cooling systems [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 127.0 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 20.1% and a net profit of 7.8 billion yuan. The non-recurring net profit was 6.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 17.5% increase year-on-year [1]. - For Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 35.0 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 20.2% and a net profit of 1.79 billion yuan [2]. Growth Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 156.1 billion yuan, 184.7 billion yuan, and 217.6 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 10.9 billion yuan, 14.4 billion yuan, and 17.9 billion yuan for the same years [4][5]. Valuation Metrics - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.31 yuan, 1.72 yuan, and 2.15 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 18, 13, and 11 for the same years [4][5].