高盛资深策略师本·斯奈德(Ben Snider)领导的股票策略师团队在一份研究报告中写道，预计2026年的IPO 募资额将达到约1600亿美元，超过去年仅仅约480亿美元的募资额，他们的最新预测中排除了SPAC和其 他类型的筹资基金。 "我们预计今年将会有非常稳固的经济增长活动、持续改善的CEO们增长信心、友好的货币政策以及美 国股市的持续升值，"高盛的策略师们在报告中写道。 他们认为，预期中的IPO规模与数量增长更多的是从异常低迷的水平回归正常，而非一种投机性的市场 繁荣。高盛的策略师们预计2026年美股IPO的交易数量将增至120宗，意味着有望比去年增加近一倍。 从金额上来看，发行额仍将仅占美股主要股指之一Russell 3000指数总市值的约0.2%，低于2021年峰值 时的0.3%。 美国股票市场的IPO市场今年开局可谓喜忧参半，在几家热门上市公司在首次上市交易中遇到困难之 后，最近，知名植发/脱发药物开发公司Veradermics Inc.的股票在周三首发上市时上涨了122%，而癌症 药物开发公司Eikon Therapeutics Inc.的股价在周四意外大幅下跌了17%。 对于斯奈德领衔的高盛策 ...

美国股票市场的IPO市场今年开局可谓喜忧参半，在几家热门上市公司在首次上市交易中遇到困难之 后，最近，知名植发/脱发药物开发公司Veradermics Inc.的股票在周三首发上市时上涨了122%，而癌症 药物开发公司Eikon Therapeutics Inc.的股价在周四意外大幅下跌了17%。 对于斯奈德领衔的高盛策略师团队来说，2026年美股IPO市场的关键风险主要包括市场剧烈波动的重新 出现，这种波动非常不利于实际IPO规模扩张。比如，上周全球股市最新经历的剧烈动荡，科技股领 跌，交易员们开始质疑大量投资于人工智能算力基础设施的回报前景。高盛策略师斯奈德指出，潜在 IPO管道中软件公司占比仍然较重也是一个风险——刚刚在金融市场刮起的"Anthropic风暴"可谓重创软 件股估值前景。 此前在今年1月有着"OpenAI劲敌"称号的Anthropic推出颇具工程协作革新意义的代理式AI编程工具—— Claude Cowork工具，并且这款工具甚至旨在将AI代理的功能从编程终端扩展至文件管理、软件交互等 广泛意义上的通用办公场景，当时就已经大幅加剧了市场对AI智能体彻底颠覆SaaS软件行业的恐惧情 绪。 而 ...

Last week’s tech chaos explained… why Alphabet and Amazon’s spending shocked Wall Street… the Stage 1 to Stage 2 transition… which stocks face existential threat from AI… and how Louis and Luke are positioning for the winnersLast week brought a gut punch for tech investors.Early in the week, Big Tech stocks got hammered. The S&P 500 software and services group shed roughly $1 trillion in market value. Microsoft, Salesforce, ServiceNow – names that seemed untouchable just weeks ago – were all down sharply. B ...

进入2月，全球软件股遭遇一次似曾相识的抛售。 2月4日，汤森路透创下史上最大单日跌幅15.8%，LegalZoom暴跌近20%，RELX下跌14%，FactSet下跌10.5%， Salesforce和Workday也出现明显下跌。标普500软件与服务指数连续五个交易日下跌近13%，较10月高点跌去26%。有 交易员将此称为"SaaSpocalypse"——SaaS的末日。 起因是1月13日，Anthropic推出了Claude Cowork，这是把交互不友好的Claude Code的主要能力，向非技术用户下放的 通用AI智能体（Agent），可以读取、编辑和创建用户电脑上的文件。1月30日，Anthropic为Cowork推出了11个开源插 件，涵盖法律、金融、销售、市场营销等垂直领域。 一个超级简单的结论就产生了：如果Claude Cowork的用户能用自然语言下令，获得和购买使用超高价企业软件同等水 平的结果，那么软件巨头们的专业知识，垂类经验等建基于SaaS商业模式上的积累，是否都打了水漂？ 为什么说是似曾相识呢？因为一年前，DeepSeek带来的市场恐慌步调与之几乎是一个模子刻出来的，都是先发了产品 ...

Core Viewpoint - A portion of institutional funds is beginning to enter the market for "bottom-fishing" in software stocks that have recently experienced significant declines, agreeing with Jensen Huang's positive outlook on software stocks, suggesting that the market has misjudged strong software giants focused on "AI + core operational processes" [1][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The narrative of a "Software-mageddon" is gaining traction, with significant sell-offs in the software sector following the launch of new AI tools by Anthropic, leading to a notable drop in the S&P 500 Software & Services Index, which has fallen approximately 30% since its recent peak at the end of October [3][9] - The software sector faced its most severe sell-off since 2022, with the S&P 500 Software & Services Index experiencing a decline of over 5% in a single day, extending its losing streak to eight consecutive trading days [3][9] - Concerns about AI's impact on traditional SaaS business models have intensified, particularly following the introduction of Anthropic's AI tools, which are designed to handle complex workflows traditionally managed by SaaS providers [7][8] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Some institutional investors are starting to view the recent sell-off as an opportunity, believing that high-quality software companies embracing AI may soon experience a technical rebound [4][10] - Analysts from major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Wedbush Securities, suggest that the selling pressure may have peaked, indicating potential for a market bottom and a return of institutional capital to the software sector [16][18] - Rick Sherlund, a prominent analyst, emphasizes that the software industry undergoes significant transformations every 10 to 15 years, and the current AI-driven changes may lead to a new bull market rather than a decline [20] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite fears that AI could completely replace enterprise software, many analysts believe that AI will instead reshape the profitability trajectories of software companies, with a focus on enhancing existing platforms rather than replacing them [12][14] - The market's panic over AI's potential to disrupt software is viewed as exaggerated, with many analysts asserting that established companies with robust platforms, like SAP, will likely benefit from AI advancements [5][19] - The ongoing transition from consumer-facing AI applications to enterprise applications is expected to drive explosive growth in demand for reasoning and computational capabilities [20]

【解剖大盘】 部分医药类走强，诺诚健华（09969）发布盈喜，预计 2025 年实现收入 23.7 亿元，同比增长约 134%； 预计 2025 年归母净利润首次扭亏为盈，达 6.3 亿元左右。公司核心品种奥布替尼稳步放量，今天涨超 8%；联邦制药(03933)：全资附属公司联邦生物科技(珠海横琴) 有限公司(联邦生物科技)自主研发的 1 类创新药 UBT251 注射液关于合并肥胖的中重度阻塞性睡眠呼吸暂停(OSA)适应症获得中国国家药品监 督管理局临床试验默示许可。作为中国首个化学合成 GLP-1/GIP/GCG 三靶点受体激动剂新药，UBT251 助力公司于该类药物研究领域占据重要地位。涨超 3%。 【板块聚焦】 市场开始挖掘底部的品种，如长期下跌的汽车股，2 月 5 日，蔚来(09866)发布 2025 年第四季度盈利预 告，经调整经营利润（介于人民币 7 亿元（约 1 亿美元）至人民币 12 亿元（约 1.72 亿美元）。主要归 因于公司在 2025 年第四季度销量持续增长、有利的产品组合推动汽车毛利率优化以及公司持续推行全 面降本增效措施。只要出现向好的势头，就很容易吸引资金，关键是位置低，作为智通 ...

席卷全球股票市场的"软件股末日"(Software-mageddon)这一悲观叙事论调，仍然处于滚雪球般发酵态势。有着"OpenAI劲敌"称 号的Anthropic重磅推出的一系列AI工具/代理式AI智能体协作平台，引发全球股市SaaS订阅软件板块以及股票市场广义上的软 件板块广泛抛售大浪潮，周四美股交易时段以及周五亚盘时段这股抛售继续席卷软件领域，标普500指数盘中一度跌破100日移 动均线，该指数11个主要板块中有9个下跌，跟踪标普500软件与服务类公司的ETF价值更是大跌5%。 美股市场软件板块在本周三可谓遭遇2022年以来最严重的抛售，软件股的这种暴跌力度甚至超过了去年1月DeepSeek横空出世 之后的科技股抛售潮。标普500软件与服务指数自10月底的近期高点以来已下跌约30%，并且在周四迈向连续八个交易日下跌 ——作为对比，同期标普500指数整体没有太大变化。 了解到，从近日全球大型软件股资金流走势来看，一部分机构类资金开始入场抄底式"逢低布局"这些近期经历暴跌甚至股价几 乎腰斩的软件股，并且他们赞同黄仁勋对于软件股的积极看法——即市场错杀了那些聚焦"AI+核心操作流程"且基本面强劲的 软件巨头， ...

智通财经APP获悉，最新统计数据显示，尽管美国医药巨头礼来(LLY.US)以及AI服务器制造领军者超微电脑(SMCI.US)的强劲 财报提供了一定程度支撑效应，但由于全球资金对于软件可能将被AI彻底颠覆的恐慌情绪引发历史级大抛售，以及这种暴跌步 伐触发一众高估值科技股以及动量贝塔策略面临罕见的大规模抛售，美国市场股票型基金在截至2月4日当周的投资需求明显降 温。 LSEG Lipper最新统计数据显示，当周全球投资者们买入美国股票型基金仅仅为大约55.8亿美元，较前一周108.2亿美元的净流 入规模大幅下降约48%。 上图为美国股票、债券与货币市场基金周度流量数据汇总。 此前在今年1月有着"OpenAI劲敌"称号的Anthropic推出颇具工程协作革新意义的代理式AI编程工具——Claude Cowork工具，并 且这款工具甚至旨在将AI代理的功能从编程终端扩展至文件管理、软件交互等广泛意义上的通用办公场景，当时就已经大幅加 剧了市场对AI智能体彻底颠覆SaaS软件行业的恐惧情绪。 而自本周二起全球软件股集体崩盘的两大元凶——即Anthropic推出的新AI工具，一款能够执行多项文书工作，包括追踪合规事 项和 ...

这已经是Anthropic你小子本周第二次搅动市场了。 一睁眼，Anthropic上新模型，让Claude Opus 4.6来给您拜！年！了！ 消息一出，金融数据服务商FactSet最惨盘中暴跌10%，S&P Global、穆迪、纳斯达克公司纷纷下跌，各大指数全线跳水。 Claude Opus 4.6冷笑一声，梆梆一拳打破这个印象：俺在更多的领域都很强！ 至少就官方说法而言，财务分析、研究，以及Office三件套，Claude Opus 4.6都可以玩儿得贼溜。 官网直接写到： 在GDPval-AA（一项评估金融、法律和其他领域经济价值知识工作任务的性能指标）上，Opus 4.6比行业下一最佳模型OpenAI GPT-5.2高出 144个Elo哟～ （这意味着Claude Opus 4.6在大约70%的情况下在这个评估中获得比GPT-5.2更高的分数，50%的情况下意味着分数相当） 几天前，它旗下一款自动化法律工作的插件悄悄上线，直接引爆了万亿美元级别的软件股暴跌。 投资者的恐慌聚焦在一个问题：谁能保证几年内不被AI颠覆？不能就抛售。 想不到今天的Anthropic更狠。 今天以前，大家对Claude的印象， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent narrative of "Software-mageddon" has led to a significant sell-off in the software sector, particularly affecting SaaS stocks, following the launch of new AI tools by Anthropic, which are perceived as threats to traditional software business models [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The S&P 500 Software & Services Index has experienced a decline of approximately 30% since its recent peak at the end of October, marking the most severe sell-off since 2022 [1][6]. - Major software companies, including Thomson Reuters and Salesforce, have seen significant stock price drops, with some experiencing declines of up to 10% in a single day [5][6]. - The sell-off has been exacerbated by disappointing earnings guidance from major companies, including Microsoft, and heightened expectations for AI infrastructure spending [5][6]. Group 2: Institutional Response - Some institutional investors are beginning to enter the market to buy undervalued software stocks, believing that the market has overreacted to the AI threat [2][12]. - Analysts from firms like Goldman Sachs and Wedbush Securities suggest that the sell-off reflects an exaggerated "Armageddon scenario" and that companies will not abandon their existing software investments for new AI solutions [12][14]. Group 3: Expert Opinions - Rick Sherlund, a prominent technology analyst, argues that the software industry undergoes significant transformations every 10 to 15 years, and companies with strong fundamentals, like SAP, will likely benefit from AI rather than be replaced by it [3][16]. - Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, emphasizes that AI will enhance existing software infrastructure rather than replace it entirely, countering the prevailing panic in the market [7][8]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Analysts believe that while AI may disrupt certain aspects of the software industry, it will also create new growth narratives, particularly for companies that can integrate AI into their existing platforms [9][10]. - The market is expected to see a bifurcation, where companies with strong data assets and integration capabilities, such as Microsoft and SAP, are likely to rebound more strongly than those with weaker competitive positions [11][15].