证券研究报告 · 策略报告 · 策略点评 策略点评 20250818 币场过度 Price in 美联储降息预期? 股&海外周观察 我们对港股持谨慎乐观态度。认为港股还处在震荡向上趋势中,下行有 底。我们继续关注潜在增配资金风偏。 1、南向资金本周加大流入速度,往后看南向资金还有提高仓位潜力。 2、市场持续关注红利,自下而上寻找景气行业。部分南向资金已经增 配互联网科技权重股票。 3、尽管市场明显提高了美联储降息的预期,促进股票市场反弹,但降 息预期可能会存在反复波动。下周杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会,如果鲍威 尔给到偏鹰信号,或会加大市场波动率。 4、中长期看,我们依旧担心海外上行风险,即随着美联储降息落地,美 卡吴11 芬 2025年08月18日 证券分析师 陈梦 执业证书:S0600524090001 chenm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 葛晓媛 执业证书:S0600525040003 gexy(@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《谁在"做多",谁仍"畏高"?》 2025-08-17 《并购重组跟踪(三十一)》 2025-08-11 股很有可能继续走强,导致上半年从美股切出的部分全球资金或会回流 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The listing of platinum and palladium futures and options meets the hard - demand of China's platinum and palladium industry, and is significant for the futures market to serve China's green development strategy and improve the global pricing mechanism of platinum and palladium [2]. - The price curves of platinum and palladium reflect the comprehensive game of automobile technology iteration, supply shocks, and macro - sentiment. The future price difference between them depends on fuel cell penetration, mine supply recovery speed, and the expansion rhythm of the recycling system [66][71]. - Gold acts as a "ballast stone" in asset allocation, while platinum is a high - elasticity gaming chip for the automotive industry and hydrogen economy [74]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Platinum and Palladium Concept and Industry Chain Overview - **Concept and Characteristics** - Platinum is a silver - white, high - density, ductile, and chemically stable precious metal with high melting and boiling points, excellent catalytic performance, and strong corrosion resistance. It is used in electronics, automotive catalysts, jewelry, etc. [6][10] - Palladium is also a platinum - group metal, with lower density than platinum, excellent ductility, and chemical stability. It has unique strong hydrogen - absorption ability and is mainly used in automotive catalysts (especially for gasoline vehicles), electronics, etc. [11][14] - **Industry Chain Characteristics** - Supply: Platinum has an Russia - South Africa duopoly supply pattern, while palladium is dominated by South Africa. Platinum mining has high costs due to deep - mining, while palladium is a by - product of nickel mining with lower costs [20]. - Demand: Platinum has rigid jewelry demand in the Asian market, so its demand elasticity is low. Palladium has no substitutes in automotive catalysts, so its demand elasticity is high [20]. - Pain Points: The industry chain faces problems such as single - origin supply risk, low demand elasticity for platinum in jewelry, and high demand elasticity and low secondary - supply recovery rate for palladium [20]. - **Industry Chain Structure** - Upstream: It is mainly the supply of primary minerals from South Africa, Russia, etc. The key challenges include high - cost mining, ESG risks, and geopolitical issues [23]. - Mid - stream: It involves refining and processing, using complex hydrometallurgy. Core participants include mining giants' refineries, professional refiners, traders, and banks [25]. - Downstream: It is the manufacturing and distribution of products, with applications in automotive catalysts, jewelry, MLCCs, etc. Key manufacturers come from different industries [27]. - Recycling: Secondary supply mainly comes from waste automotive catalysts, electronic waste, etc., accounting for about 25% of platinum supply and 30% of palladium supply [34]. 2. Platinum and Palladium Supply - Demand Conditions - **Supply - side Factors** - Mineral Supply: It is highly concentrated in South Africa and Russia. Supply is affected by factors such as the COVID - 19 pandemic, power crises, and geopolitical issues, leading to significant fluctuations [37]. - Recycling Supply: It accounts for an increasing proportion, buffering supply - side fluctuations. However, the recycling volume is affected by precious - metal price fluctuations [38]. - **Demand - side Factors** - Automotive Catalysts: Palladium is the core material for gasoline - vehicle exhaust catalysts, accounting for 84% of global palladium demand in 2023. Platinum is mainly used in diesel - vehicle catalysts, with a 45% demand share in 2023. There is a substitution effect between them, but short - term substitution is limited [42]. - Industrial and Investment Demand: China is the largest platinum - demand country, using it for jewelry, chemical catalysts, and the hydrogen - energy industry. Europe is the largest palladium - demand country, with strong demand in the automotive industry. Emerging fields such as hydrogen fuel cells and 5G electronics are long - term demand growth points [43]. - **Inventory - side Factors** - Global platinum and palladium reserves have shown a trend of "first decline, then rise, and then stability" in the past 30 years. The sharp increase in 2024 is due to resource re - evaluation and large - scale resource upgrades in South Africa and Zimbabwe [48]. - **Import - Export Factors** - China's platinum - group metal resources are scarce, and the industry depends on imports. Import and export are affected by geopolitical, policy, and production - capacity factors. China encourages recycling technology R & D and hydrogen - energy industry investment to reduce import risks [51]. - Seasonal Patterns: Platinum imports peak from November to January and in September - October, and are low in February. Palladium imports peak from December to February and may have small peaks in July - August [54]. 3. Platinum and Palladium Spot and Futures Market Prices - **Futures Market Prices** - From 2011 to 2025, the futures prices of platinum and palladium can be divided into three stages. The price difference between them is mainly affected by automotive technology changes, supply - demand imbalances, and economic expectations [66]. - **Spot Market Prices** - From 2007 to 2025, the spot prices of platinum and palladium can also be divided into three stages. The price difference is mainly due to the "technology change" in automotive catalysts and the development of the recycling system [70]. - **Platinum - Gold Price Comparison** - In terms of price, gold is rarely surpassed by platinum. In terms of trend rhythm, gold shows a "step - by - step slow - bull" trend, while platinum has large fluctuations. In terms of divergence, the gold - platinum price ratio has reached a historical extreme, reflecting the dual discount of platinum [73][74]. 4. Platinum and Palladium Futures and Options Introduction - **Futures Contracts** - Platinum and palladium futures contracts have a trading unit of 1000 grams/hand, a minimum price change of 0.05 yuan/gram, a daily price limit of 4%, and a minimum margin of 5%. They use physical delivery, and the delivery months are February, April, June, August, October, and December [78]. - **Options Contracts** - Platinum and palladium options contracts are based on their respective futures contracts. They have a trading unit of 1 hand (1000 grams) of the underlying futures contract, a minimum price change of 0.05 yuan/gram, and an American - style exercise method [100].

Market Performance - Developed and emerging markets both declined by 2.5% during the week of July 28 to August 1, 2025[1] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 3.5%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 4.9%[1] - The S&P 500 decreased by 2.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average led the decline with a 2.9% drop[4] Economic Indicators - U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the expected 104,000 and previous month's 147,000[4] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 48 in July, below the expected 49.5, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector[4] - The U.S. Q2 GDP growth rate was 3.0%, surpassing expectations of 2.4%[4] Market Sentiment and Trends - There is a consensus to focus on dividend-paying stocks and identify sectors with growth potential, particularly in healthcare[1] - Concerns remain regarding internet technology stocks due to consumer spending factors, although some funds are increasing their allocations[1] - The market is experiencing increased volatility due to rising overseas risks and expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S.[1] Tariff Impacts - The U.S. is set to implement reciprocal tariffs starting August 7, affecting various countries with rates as high as 39% for some[5] - The market's sensitivity to tariff issues appears to be diminishing, but ongoing monitoring is necessary[1] Fund Flows - Global equity ETFs saw a net inflow of $29.579 billion, with the U.S. leading at $19.55 billion[11] - Chinese equity ETFs experienced the largest outflow, totaling $5 billion[11] - Institutional investors are slightly reducing gold holdings, while retail investors are marginally increasing their positions[10]

Core Viewpoint - BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX) is anticipated to report a year-over-year increase in earnings and revenues for the quarter ended June 2025, with the actual results having a significant impact on its near-term stock price [1][2]. Financial Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to show quarterly earnings of $0.03 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 150% [3]. - Revenues are projected to be $148.85 million, which is a 36.2% increase from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating that analysts have not significantly reassessed their initial estimates [4]. - For BioCryst, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -66.67%, suggesting a bearish outlook from analysts [11]. Earnings Surprise History - In the last reported quarter, BioCryst was expected to post a loss of $0.07 per share but instead delivered break-even earnings, resulting in a surprise of +100.00% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times [13]. Industry Comparison - In the Zacks Medical - Drugs industry, Indivior PLC (INDV) is expected to report earnings of $0.26 per share for the same quarter, indicating a year-over-year decline of 40.9% [17]. - Indivior's revenue is projected to be $244.27 million, down 18.3% from the previous year, but it has an Earnings ESP of +11.54%, suggesting a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [18][19].

Group 1: Event Overview - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo (referred to as "Chain Expo") is being held with the theme "Linking the World, Creating the Future" [1] - The expo features six major chains: advanced manufacturing, clean energy, smart automotive, digital technology, healthy living, and green agriculture, attracting numerous domestic and foreign enterprises [1] - PwC's global chairman emphasized the expo's role in promoting innovation and cooperation, highlighting the vitality and potential of the Chinese market [1] Group 2: Technological Innovations - The expo showcases advancements in AI and embodied intelligence, with companies like Zhihui Square demonstrating their self-developed Alpha Brain model using NVIDIA's GPU for training and algorithm development [2] - TCL presented its AI companion robot and AR glasses, showcasing innovations in smart products and energy-saving technologies [2] - NewEgg Group is advancing its digital transformation with AI and big data, introducing its one-stop cross-border e-commerce management tool, SellingPilot, to enhance operational efficiency [3] Group 3: Foreign Investment and Commitment - AstraZeneca has participated in the expo for the third consecutive year, reaffirming its commitment to high-quality development in China's healthcare industry with a recent $2.5 billion investment in Beijing [4] - The company has also established partnerships with four Chinese innovative firms and made significant progress in its production bases in Qingdao and Wuxi [4] - Panasonic is expanding its presence at the expo, showcasing innovations in home and public spaces, and emphasizing its commitment to local supply chain optimization in China [5]

Core Viewpoint - The healthcare ETF, Taikang (159760), has shown a strong performance with a 1.51% increase, marking three consecutive days of gains, driven by significant rises in key stocks such as WuXi AppTec and Kelun Pharmaceutical [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of July 11, 2025, the Taikang healthcare ETF reached a new high of 82.42 million yuan, the highest in three months [2]. - The index it tracks, the National Public Health and Healthcare Index (980016), rose by 1.45% [1]. Group 2: Company Performance - WuXi AppTec (603259) reported an expected adjusted net profit of approximately 6.315 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of about 44.43% [2]. - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 8.561 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 101.92% [2]. - Basic earnings per share are projected to be around 3.01 yuan, up approximately 106.16% year-on-year [2]. Group 3: Policy and Market Trends - The National Healthcare Security Administration has initiated a new round of adjustments to the national medical insurance drug catalog, indicating a favorable policy environment for innovative drugs [3]. - China ranks first globally in the number of original drugs developed by its enterprises, with increasing foreign capital investment in Chinese innovative drugs [3]. - The healthcare sector is expected to benefit from a comprehensive policy support system, enhancing the global market position of domestic innovative drugs [3]. Group 4: Index Composition - As of May 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Public Health and Healthcare Index accounted for 52.46% of the index, including major players like Hengrui Medicine and Mindray Medical [4].

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose 3.2% last week, closing at 24,284 points[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 4.1%, ending at 5,341 points[1] - Weekly trading volume increased by 20.4% to HKD 248.8 billion[1] Sector Analysis - The materials sector surged 7.7%, benefiting from rising gold and non-ferrous metal stocks[1] - The information technology and financial sectors both rose by 4.3%[1] - The energy and utilities sectors declined by 1.1% and 0.4%, respectively[1] Currency and Liquidity - The Hong Kong dollar hit the weak end of the peg at 7.85, prompting the HKMA to buy HKD 9.42 billion for the first time in 2023[1] - The HKMA injected HKD 129.4 billion into the banking system in May, indicating stable liquidity unless further actions are taken[1] Real Estate Market - New home sales in 30 major cities fell 11.8% year-on-year, with a slight month-on-month increase of 16.1%[7] - The property inventory-to-sales ratio for major cities rose to 94.5, up from 83.6 year-on-year[9] - Land transaction volume in 100 major cities dropped by 31.8% year-on-year[10] Investment Recommendations - Focus on AI and robotics sectors, as well as semiconductor industries benefiting from policy support[15] - Caution advised due to ongoing financing activities and potential liquidity challenges in the Hong Kong market[1]

Market Overview - On June 19, the Hang Seng Index fell by 473 points or 2.0%, closing at 23,237, marking a new low since June 2[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 2.4%, closing at 5,088, the lowest since April 30[1] - The total market turnover was over HKD 220.1 billion, indicating that selling pressure was not excessively high[1] - Despite the decline, the Stock Connect saw a net inflow of HKD 1.43 billion[1] Economic Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates during the June FOMC meeting, emphasizing inflation control as a priority[2] - Economic forecasts indicate concerns over stagflation, with GDP growth predictions lowered and inflation and unemployment rates raised[2] - The divergence among Fed officials regarding interest rate cuts has increased, with the number of officials opposing cuts rising from 4 to 7[2] Industry Developments - Black Sesame Technologies (2533 HK) announced plans to acquire an AI chip company, which could enhance its product line for smart vehicles[3] - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell by 3.2%, with Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) experiencing a smaller decline due to positive clinical data for its drug candidate[4] Company Highlights - Cao Cao Travel (2643 HK) reported a GTV of RMB 17 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 38.8%, with a market share of 5.4%[5] - The company aims to expand its fleet to over 34,000 customized vehicles by 2024, with customized vehicles accounting for approximately 25.1% of GTV[5] - Cao Cao's AI-driven system, "Cao Cao Brain," is designed to optimize order matching and reduce idle mileage, contributing to GTV growth[6] Financial Projections - Stone Pharmaceutical (1093 HK) signed a strategic agreement with AstraZeneca, receiving an upfront payment of USD 110 million (approximately RMB 790 million) and potential milestone payments totaling up to USD 1.62 billion[8] - Revenue forecasts for Stone Pharmaceutical for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upward by 1.3%, 1.2%, and 0.5% respectively, reflecting the anticipated income from the AstraZeneca agreement[9] - The target price for Stone Pharmaceutical has been raised to HKD 8.15, maintaining a "neutral" rating[11]

Company News - AMD's CEO Lisa Su announced that the new MI350 series chips will surpass Nvidia in speed, with the market expected to exceed $500 billion in the next three years [1] - Apple plans to release a long-awaited upgrade to Siri AI in spring 2026, although the exact date has not been finalized [1] - Tesla is upgrading the entire Model S and Model X lineup in the U.S. market [1] - Coinbase will launch its first credit card in partnership with American Express, offering up to 4% Bitcoin back on purchases [1] - Tesla announced an expansion of its virtual power plant business in Japan, partnering with Fuyo General Lease and Global Engineering [1] - Thermo Fisher Scientific is reportedly planning to sell its diagnostics division for approximately $4 billion to optimize its asset portfolio and divest underperforming business segments [1] - AstraZeneca has entered into a strategic research collaboration with CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, focusing on high-priority targets for the discovery and development of new oral candidate drugs for multi-indication diseases [1] Industry News - Walmart and Amazon are exploring the issuance of their own stablecoins [2]

Group 1 - Compliance management is essential for modern enterprises as it serves as a self-diagnostic and defense system to identify and analyze applicable laws and regulations, ensuring adherence and continuous monitoring [2][3] - A robust compliance management system can effectively prevent negative impacts from violations, such as hefty fines and reputational damage, thereby safeguarding long-term interests [2][3] - The importance of compliance management is heightened for Chinese enterprises due to increasing anti-corruption efforts and a complex global regulatory environment [2][8] Group 2 - The compliance management system is a continuous improvement process rather than a one-time task, requiring ongoing monitoring and adjustments to adapt to new risks [4][6] - Effective compliance management typically includes eight core components, such as leadership commitment, risk assessment, operational controls, and training [5][6] - ISO 37301 is a globally recognized standard for compliance management, providing clear requirements for enterprises to enhance their credibility and competitiveness in international markets [7][6] Group 3 - Chinese enterprises must understand the unique political and legal environment to effectively manage compliance, as recent policies have led to stricter regulations and enforcement [8][9] - The enterprise social credit system in China integrates compliance management with market behavior, imposing penalties on non-compliant firms, which can affect both the company and its executives [10][9] - Industry-specific regulations require tailored compliance strategies, as a one-size-fits-all approach may not effectively mitigate regulatory risks [11][9] Group 4 - As Chinese enterprises globalize, they face legal compliance challenges that necessitate adherence to international regulatory frameworks and understanding local laws in target markets [12][15] - Key areas of concern include international tax compliance, data security, anti-bribery measures, intellectual property protection, labor laws, and management of business partners [15][17][18][19][20] - Cultural differences can significantly impact compliance practices, necessitating adjustments in corporate behavior and communication strategies to mitigate legal risks [21][20] Group 5 - A comprehensive and flexible compliance framework is crucial for Chinese enterprises to navigate the evolving regulatory landscape effectively [23][24] - Cultivating a strong compliance culture that starts from leadership and permeates the organization is vital for building trust and credibility in international markets [24][25] - Utilizing technology to enhance compliance management efficiency through automation and real-time monitoring is increasingly important [25][26] Group 6 - Regular risk assessments and audits are essential for identifying and addressing potential compliance issues before they escalate [26][27] - Continuous improvement of the compliance management system is necessary to adapt to changing regulations and emerging risks [27][28] - Future compliance management trends include a shift from passive adherence to compliance culture as a core competitive advantage [32][33] Group 7 - The integration of compliance management with business strategy is becoming increasingly important, as it can drive business development and mitigate risks [34][35] - Chinese enterprises must establish a dynamic compliance management mechanism to respond swiftly to regulatory changes and maintain compliance [33][34] - The evolution of compliance management from a regulatory burden to a strategic asset is essential for sustainable growth in the global market [35]