中美之间的关税战表面上暂时停歇了，但这并不意味着所有战线都已经平息。中国并没有选择等待，而是抓住这个时机，把周边的经济战线收紧，这一举措 避免了潜在的隐患继续扩散。 美国一方刚刚在正面战场上被压制住，立刻转而从侧面寻找机会。在中美在吉隆坡完成新一轮接触后，美国暂停了增加关税的计划，并且取消了对华的一些 不合理税务措施。这一举动让外界看到，美国其实是在被动应对。大家都知道，美国国内供应链的压力已经非常大，关键产业失去市场，零部件缺口不断增 大，国内企业的抱怨声此起彼伏。而中国则只是象征性地恢复了部分农产品采购，并没有在气势上做出太多让步。这种对比成为外界判断美国硬不动，中国 顶得住的依据。然而，美国的习惯就是：当正面进攻无效时，它会选择从侧面加压。最近，外媒报道，中国商务部门在与马来西亚的会谈中对美马协议的部 分内容提出了严重关切，类似的情况也发生在柬埔寨。尽管这些内容并未公开，但从两国的态度可以推测，协议中不少条款与所谓的安全合作挂钩。表面上 看，这些条款是正常的合作，实际上却是借安全的名义，限制中国在当地的发展。美国的逻辑很简单：正面打不动，就从周边国家下手，切断中国在东南亚 的布局。一旦过境链路被阻，出口 ...

期货研究报告 | 新能源&有色 行业研究报告 展望 2026 年：消费端目前均较乐观，但实际兑现情况仍有待观察，整体供需格局预计有所好转，过剩量收窄。若消费端超预期，供应 端出现不可抗力，可能出现阶段性偏紧。预计 2026 年碳酸锂价格将会在 7-13 万元/吨运行，由于行业整体过剩收窄，价格重心会或出 现抬升，对于碳酸锂来说，整体波动幅度依旧较大，对于产业客户与投资机构，可把握周期性行情。 新能源&有色金属研究 过剩程度收窄 锂价重心或上移 New Eergy and Non-Frrous Mtals 本期分析研究员 封帆 从业资格号：03139777 投资咨询号：0021579 华泰期货研究院新能源&有色金属研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 陈思捷 从业资格号：3080232 投资咨询号：0016047 师橙 从业资格号：3046665 投资咨询号：0014806 王育武 从业资格号：03114162 投资咨询号： 0022466 期货研究报告 | 碳酸锂年报 2025-11-30 研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 陈思捷 电话：021-60827968 邮箱：chensijie@htfc.com 从 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights ongoing tensions in US-China relations despite a temporary truce in the tariff war, with Trump expressing dissatisfaction and urging for more pressure on China [1][3][7] - Trump's recent comments suggest that he believes the US is financially supporting China's military, indicating a desire to leverage trade negotiations to curb China's military growth [7][9][14] - The US has approved arms sales to Taiwan, which undermines previous commitments and damages trust between the two nations, further complicating the fragile relationship [3][5] Group 2 - Despite China's suspension of planned rare earth export controls, the US continues to demand a rare earth agreement, threatening retaliation if China does not comply, which reflects a strategy of extreme pressure [5][16] - Trump's rhetoric reveals his anxiety over China's rise and his approach of using extreme pressure and bargaining tactics in diplomacy, which has not yielded the desired results in the trade conflict [9][11] - The articles argue that Trump's claims about the US "supporting" China's military are unfounded, emphasizing that US-China trade is mutually beneficial rather than one-sided [11][14]

最近，前白宫官员杜如松发表了讲话，谈到将于10月底举行的中美峰会，并指出这一会议正好发生在全球格局重塑的关键时刻。当前国际秩序进入了一个决 定性十年，在此背景下，特朗普选择主动承认中国的崛起，给予中国以重要的外交礼物。特朗普在任期间挑起了中美之间的关税战，尽管美国当时想通过这 一手段打压中国，然而最终却以美国的失败告终。中国不仅在这场战斗中取得了巨大胜利，而且也让全世界看到，如今的中国已经具备了与美国平起平坐的 能力和地位。 杜如松认为，特朗普挑起这场关税战是一种不理智的行为，这种不必要的挑衅打乱了美国的整体战略布局。更重要的是，他认为未来的历史学家们回顾中美 两国平起平坐的时刻时，很可能会将这一事件追溯到特朗普政府的决策上。杜如松还指出，特朗普不仅错误地发动了这场关税战，反而在很多方面被中国牵 着鼻子走，尤其是在美国在一些关键领域的命脉，比如制药原料等，中国对美国的影响力愈发强大，随时可以卡住美国的脖子。 作为拜登的亲信，杜如松的讲话有两个明显的目的。首先，他试图将中国崛起的责任推给特朗普，认为特朗普未能维持美国的霸权地位，因此需要为此负 责。其次，他试图提醒特朗普政府，不能放松警惕，要继续对中国保持警觉， ...

Core Points - The fifth round of trade negotiations between China and the United States was marked by intense confrontation, lasting five hours, highlighting the ongoing severity of the trade war [3][5] - Key issues discussed included U.S. measures against China's shipping and shipbuilding industries, the extension of the tariff suspension period, fentanyl export disputes, and restrictions on U.S. agricultural exports to China [3][5] - China's confidence in negotiations stems from its strategic preparations over the past seven years, including leveraging its rare earth resources and agricultural exports as bargaining chips [6][11] Summary by Categories Negotiation Atmosphere - The atmosphere during the negotiations was tense, with a stark contrast between the confident demeanor of the Chinese representative and the stressed appearance of the U.S. representatives [6][11] - The U.S. government displayed a strong stance but failed to acknowledge its own shortcomings regarding domestic issues related to the opioid crisis, instead blaming China for the fentanyl problem [5][11] Key Issues Discussed - The discussions included critical topics such as the U.S. 301 measures against China's shipping and shipbuilding sectors, which reflect unfair trade practices [5][11] - Fentanyl was a recurring issue in negotiations, with the U.S. using it as a significant bargaining chip despite its own failures in addressing the root causes of the crisis [5][11] Outcomes and Implications - The negotiations resulted in a preliminary consensus on several issues, indicating that despite the confrontational nature, some progress was made [6][12] - China's success in these negotiations is seen as a significant victory against U.S. hegemony, providing hope to other nations resisting similar pressures [12]

Core Points - The recent round of US-China trade negotiations concluded with US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin acknowledging the reality and promising not to consider imposing a 100% tariff on China [1] - President Trump, during his visit to Asia, expressed confidence in reaching a comprehensive agreement with China, indicating a potential return to normal levels of tariffs [3] - The atmosphere of the negotiations was tense, with strong positions from both sides, particularly on sensitive issues like fentanyl tariffs and shipping fees, but a preliminary consensus was eventually reached [3][5] Group 1 - The US side initially had a very hardline stance, but China's determination to protect its national interests forced the Trump administration to compromise [3][5] - The ability of the negotiation representatives played a role in the progress, but ultimately, the strength of national power and leverage was crucial [5] - The impact of China's rare earth export controls has created significant concern in the West, highlighting the leverage China holds in trade discussions [5] Group 2 - The trade war initiated by Trump has led to significant challenges for American farmers, particularly in the soybean market, as Chinese buyers have shifted to South American sources [7] - In response to the declining soybean market, some American farmers have switched to corn, which is expected to yield a record production of 427 million tons this year [7] - However, the oversupply of corn has resulted in plummeting prices, causing financial distress for farmers, which could have political implications for the Republican Party in the upcoming midterm elections [7]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of Trump's planned visit to China in early next year comes amid escalating tensions in the US-China "rare earth war," with skepticism about the sincerity of this gesture and its potential impact on trade negotiations [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - Trump believes that the upcoming economic talks could yield positive results and lead to a trade agreement for mutual prosperity [3]. - The US has a history of making bold claims regarding negotiations, often attempting to take the initiative in discussions with China [3][5]. - The trade war, initiated during Trump's first term, has led to significant economic strain, with the US eventually seeking to negotiate peace after facing challenges [5]. Group 2: US-China Relations - Trump's approach has been aggressive, using tariffs and sanctions against China while showing little genuine willingness to negotiate [5][7]. - The recent introduction of new regulations on rare earth exports has put pressure on the US, prompting Trump to threaten 100% tariffs while attempting to morally coerce China [7]. - The Chinese response has been to counter any provocations, indicating a shift towards immediate retaliation rather than delayed responses [5][9]. Group 3: Key Demands and Expectations - In the new round of negotiations, Trump has outlined three main demands: soybeans, rare earths, and fentanyl, with the latter being outside China's control [7]. - There is skepticism regarding Trump's ability to make significant concessions, as it would undermine his position and image [7][9]. - The effectiveness of any negotiations will depend on the sincerity of the US side, rather than Trump's personal influence or presence [9].

Core Points - Trump's 12-word statement signifies a dramatic shift in the US-China trade war, indicating a potential retreat from high tariffs that were previously seen as a political tool [1][3] - The statement reveals the underlying struggles of the US government, highlighting the impact of China's rare earth dominance on US military capabilities and the agricultural sector [3][5] Group 1: Trade War Dynamics - The US reliance on Chinese rare earth materials is critical, as China accounts for 80% of global production, affecting military technologies like the F-35 fighter jet [3] - The agricultural sector is facing severe challenges, with US soybean exports dropping by 40% and sorghum orders down by 90%, as Chinese buyers turn to Brazil [3][5] - The US beef export to China has plummeted from $120 million to $8 million monthly, while Australia benefits from increased exports [3] Group 2: Economic and Political Implications - The US national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, equating to approximately $110,000 per American, creating a fiscal crisis that complicates government operations [5] - The government shutdown has led to significant disruptions, affecting federal employees and services, which undermines the administration's agenda [5] - The trade war has escalated from an economic conflict to a political survival battle for the Trump administration, as domestic pressures mount [5][7] Group 3: Future Outlook - The reversal in the trade war signals a potential collapse of the existing US hegemony, raising questions about the future of global trade dynamics [7] - The interconnectedness of rare earths, agriculture, and national debt illustrates the complexity of US-China relations and the need for a new balance in global trade [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the evolving dynamics of US-China relations, highlighting the US's inching approach and China's establishment of an ecological sanction system that exposes US weaknesses [1][5] - The upcoming fifth round of US-China trade negotiations is anticipated to address key issues, including tariffs on rare earths and agricultural products like soybeans [3][7] - Trump's administration shows internal divisions regarding trade strategies, with some officials believing in the potential for a mutually beneficial agreement with China [5][10] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that the root causes of the US-China trade war involve multiple contentious issues, including rare earths, soybeans, tariffs, and geopolitical concerns [7][9] - The Fentanyl issue and the associated 20% tariff are highlighted as critical points in negotiations, with the US reluctant to remove the tariff due to implications for domestic accountability [9] - The article concludes that US-China relations are characterized by a complex interplay of cooperation and conflict, with both sides needing to navigate their differences while seeking common ground [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Transport has officially implemented a special port fee for U.S. vessels, effective immediately, as part of the ongoing trade tensions between China and the U.S. [1][3] Group 1: Implementation of Special Port Fee - Starting from October 14, 2025, a fee of 400 RMB per net ton will be charged for U.S.-owned, U.S.-flagged, and U.S.-manufactured vessels docking at Chinese ports [1] - This fee is part of a broader context of trade disputes and tariffs between China and the U.S. [3] Group 2: U.S. Government Response - The U.S. government has been largely silent on this new fee, attributed to a government shutdown that has left the matter unaddressed [3] - The situation highlights a lack of oversight and response from the U.S. government regarding international trade regulations [3]