今年五月，中美经贸高层在瑞士日内瓦会面，何立峰带队中方，耶伦和泰代表美方。 双方聊关税减免和技术管制，美方想部分中国货关税下降，中方点头同意相应调整。谈了两天，涉及芬太尼和知识产权，十二号签联合声明，承诺九十天内 停加新关税。 这次会谈是因为特朗普上台后贸易压力大，美方要缓和国内制造业成本问题。实际执行中，美方二十号发行政令，降了数百亿货物的税，中国商务部说会盯 着，避免美方变卦。 日内瓦协议让美国企业缓和压力，钢铁铝材进口便宜了点，汽车业有点复苏。可芬太尼管制没谈拢，中方说美方得先撤额外限制。 五月十五号，特朗普在白宫记者会说这是大胜，能够保护美国工作岗位。但市场不买账，道琼斯指数那几天晃荡。 六月十号，中美去伦敦继续谈，定了日内瓦框架，美方松芯片出口，中方多买美国农产品。 十一号CNN报导，说缓解科技担忧，但批特朗普早政策害人不浅。十五号双方换文件，启动知识产权和市场准入合作。 协议后，美国对华出口月底涨百分之十五。可共和党议员质疑特朗普让步多，民主党说没解决国有企业补贴。之后，特朗普宣布对等关税计划，中方警告可 能反制。 欧盟二十五号发声明欢迎缓和，可提醒供应链还脆。日本韩国企业转买中国货避险。特朗普四 ...

釜山会晤不到24小时，美国为什么又出尔反尔？美国为什么执意要推进对中国的301调查？ 在昨天的节目中我们聊到，中美最高层在釜山的会晤取得了积极成果，特朗普在会后高度评价了本次会晤，并宣布立即取消对华征收的10%"芬太尼关税"， 同时当天商务部也发布公告，宣布了中美第五轮经贸磋商的成果，除了取消"芬太尼关税"外，还暂停了多项对中国商品和企业的单边管制措施，其中就包括 暂停对华海事、物流和造船业301调查措施一年。 但是我们也注意到，美国在暂停多项措施的同时，还是留了一手。 就在中美釜山会晤后不到24小时，美国贸易代表格里尔在接受彭博社采访时表示，虽然中美贸易战进入了休战期，但是美国对中国2020年"是否履行中美第 一阶段贸易协议"所开展的301调查，将继续进行。 显然，美方的最新表态，给刚刚有所缓和的中美经贸关系，又蒙上了一层阴影，因为美国的301调查几乎涵盖了中美经贸往来的所有主要领域，谁也不知道 美国接下来又会对哪个行业动手。 而所谓301调查，实际上就是美国搞贸易霸权的"遮羞布"。中美虽然在2020年签署了第一阶段的贸易协议，中方承诺要在2020年至2021两年间，额外增加购 买2000亿美元的美国商品和 ...

法律专家与国会山的反对者一同质疑这些打击行动是否违反国际法。同时，也有人质疑这些船只是否真 的驶向美国，以及它们是否携带了芬太尼——这种毒品在美国引发了阿片类药物危机，已导致数万人死 亡。 来源：金十数据 美国南方司令部（US Southern Command）周一晚表示，美军再次攻击了三艘涉嫌运毒的船只，共造成 8人死亡。 南方司令部在其社交媒体X上发布声明称，此次打击行动是在国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯（Pete Hegseth） 的"指示下"于东太平洋进行的。声明附有一段47秒的视频，显示船只被猛烈爆炸摧毁。 南方司令部表示，此次行动中有八人丧生。军方未详细说明袭击发生的具体地点。 最新一轮打击行动之际，特朗普政府正因其对委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗（Nicolas Maduro）的施压 行动以及对南美海岸附近船只的单边打击而面临日益严格的审视。随着特朗普多次暗示，迄今为止仅限 于海上的行动可能很快会扩展到陆上打击，美国已在该地区集结了一支强大的军事力量。 国会中的民主党人和共和党人已要求赫格塞斯就这些打击行动向议员们进行简报，同时也在寻求获取9 月份一起袭击事件的未剪辑视频。在该事件中，一次空袭的明显幸存者 ...

来源：金十 美国南方司令部（US Southern Command）周一晚表示，美军再次攻击了三艘涉嫌运毒的船只，共造成 8人死亡。 南方司令部在其社交媒体X上发布声明称，此次打击行动是在国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯（Pete Hegseth） 的"指示下"于东太平洋进行的。声明附有一段47秒的视频，显示船只被猛烈爆炸摧毁。 南方司令部表示，此次行动中有八人丧生。军方未详细说明袭击发生的具体地点。 最新一轮打击行动之际，特朗普政府正因其对委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗（Nicolas Maduro）的施压 行动以及对南美海岸附近船只的单边打击而面临日益严格的审视。随着特朗普多次暗示，迄今为止仅限 于海上的行动可能很快会扩展到陆上打击，美国已在该地区集结了一支强大的军事力量。 国会中的民主党人和共和党人已要求赫格塞斯就这些打击行动向议员们进行简报，同时也在寻求获取9 月份一起袭击事件的未剪辑视频。在该事件中，一次空袭的明显幸存者在第二次袭击中丧生。 议员们威胁称，如果赫格塞斯不配合，将削减其本人的差旅预算。 赫格塞斯并未因此受到影响，继续推进相关行动，特朗普也继续支持他的国防部长。 法律专家与国会山的反对者一同质疑这些 ...

（责任编辑：宋政 HN002） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 格隆汇12月16日｜美国总统特朗普签署行政命令，将芬太尼列为大规模杀伤性武器。特朗普在行政命令 中，指芬太尼更接近化学武器，而非麻醉品。生产和分销芬太尼活动威胁美国的国家安全，并助长了区 域和美国边境地区的违法活动。特朗普的举措对麻醉品来说，是前所未有的。新归类强化了特朗普针对 执意向美国倾销毒品团伙的打击力度，授权五角大楼协助执法，并允许情报机构动用通常用于遏制武器 扩散的手段，来打击毒品贩运。 ...

特朗普签署行政令，将芬太尼列为“大规模杀伤性武器”，扩展美国政府打击非法贩运芬太尼活动的权限。 ...

美国总统特朗普周一签署行政命令，将芬太尼列为"大规模杀伤性武器"，此举极大地扩展了美国政府打 击这种合成阿片类药物非法贩运的权限。该药物每年造成数以万计的美国人因过量使用而死亡。对麻醉 品而言，这样的定性前所未有，表明特朗普意图将芬太尼视为与化学战同等的国家安全威胁，而不仅仅 是公共卫生危机。这样的分类强化了特朗普针对"执意向美国倾销毒品团伙"的打击，授权五角大楼协助 执法，并允许情报机构动用通常用于防止武器扩散的手段来打击毒品贩运。"我们正式将芬太尼归类为 大规模杀伤性武器，它确实是这样的东西，"特朗普在白宫一场表彰协助巡逻美墨边境军人的活动上 说。"他们正试图用毒品侵害我们的国家。""非法芬太尼更接近化学武器，而非麻醉品，"特朗普在命令 中称。 美国总统特朗普周一签署行政命令，将芬太尼列为"大规模杀伤性武器"，此举极大地扩展了美国政府打 击这种合成阿片类药物非法贩运的权限。该药物每年造成数以万计的美国人因过量使用而死亡。对麻醉 品而言，这样的定性前所未有，表明特朗普意图将芬太尼视为与化学战同等的国家安全威胁，而不仅仅 是公共卫生危机。这样的分类强化了特朗普针对"执意向美国倾销毒品团伙"的打击，授权五角大楼 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dual nature of Mexico, highlighting its challenges with drug trafficking and violence alongside its potential as a growing market for businesses, particularly for Chinese companies looking to expand into North America and Latin America [4][10]. Group 1: Drug Trafficking and Violence - Mexico has become a hub for drug production and trafficking, with a significant portion of its economy reliant on the drug trade, which has led to widespread violence and corruption [6][8]. - As of 2023, approximately 47.7 million Americans aged 12 and older have illegally used drugs in the past month, representing about 16.8% of that age group [5]. - The drug trade has deeply infiltrated Mexican society, with drug cartels employing around 175,000 people, making them one of the largest employers in the country, surpassing major corporations like Pemex [7][8]. Group 2: Economic Opportunities - Despite the challenges, Mexico is viewed as a critical node in global supply chains, especially for Chinese brands seeking to access the U.S. market amid trade tensions [9][10]. - The country has a population of 130 million and ranks 11th globally in GDP, with a higher per capita GDP than China, indicating significant market potential [23]. - The Mexican government has been actively working to attract foreign investment, particularly from Chinese companies, by offering favorable conditions for manufacturing and trade [23][30]. Group 3: Business Environment and Cultural Differences - The business environment in Mexico requires foreign companies to adapt to local customs and practices, emphasizing the importance of building relationships and trust [25][27]. - There are significant cultural differences between Chinese and Mexican work ethics, with Mexicans valuing work-life balance and personal relationships more than the often intense work culture found in China [26][27]. - Security remains a major concern for businesses, with many companies investing in security measures and navigating a landscape where corruption is prevalent [18][19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the new phase of China-US economic and trade relations, highlighting the transition from conflict to a more balanced dialogue, which may have significant implications for global governance and the international monetary order [2][3]. Group 1: New Phase of China-US Economic Relations - The economic relationship between China and the US has evolved through three distinct phases: "coexistence and win-win" (2005-2016), increasing trade friction (2017-2024), and a new phase of equal dialogue starting in 2025 [4][5][12]. - The "coexistence and win-win" phase was characterized by strong economic interdependence, with China providing cheap labor and the US benefiting from low inflation and financial prosperity [5][7]. - The increasing trade friction phase saw the US imposing tariffs, with the effective tariff rate on China remaining high at 19.3% even after some easing in 2020 [11][12]. Group 2: Characteristics and Policy Implications of the New Phase - The new phase is marked by a balance of power, allowing for negotiations that could lead to mutually beneficial agreements, such as adjustments in tariffs on agricultural products and strategic resources [20][21]. - The US's reliance on China for certain exports and the need for China to maintain its economic growth create a scenario where both countries have incentives to engage in dialogue [20][22]. - The potential for currency adjustments, such as the appreciation of the yuan and the reduction of US tariffs, could help rebalance trade and improve consumer purchasing power in both countries [21][22]. Group 3: International Monetary Order and Asset Implications - The new phase may reinforce the ongoing restructuring of the international monetary order, with a shift away from dollar dominance towards a more fragmented and diversified system [26][28]. - The trend of capital returning to domestic markets, particularly in China, indicates a growing preference for local investments amid global uncertainties [28][30]. - The long-term competition between the US and China is likely to drive increased investment in research and development, impacting various asset classes differently, with strategic resources like rare earths gaining importance [54][55].

Legal Analysis - The U.S. Supreme Court's debate on the legality of "reciprocal tariffs" shows a 3:6 ratio in favor of declaring them illegal, indicating a high probability of a ruling against them[2] - The main arguments for declaring the tariffs illegal include the assertion that tariff authority belongs to Congress and that the IEEPA was intended to limit presidential power, not expand it[2][11] - Three potential outcomes of the ruling are identified: a likely illegal ruling with delayed effect (45%-55% probability), partial illegality with possible allowance for fentanyl tariffs (20%-30% probability), and a low probability (10%-20%) of upholding the legality of reciprocal tariffs[17][18] Economic Implications - If reciprocal tariffs are deemed illegal, the U.S. tariff structure may decline by approximately 25%, with total tariff revenue potentially dropping from $1,959 billion to $1,554 billion[4][26][37] - Current tariff revenue composition shows reciprocal tariffs account for 45%, Section 301 tariffs for 18%, and Section 232 tariffs for 17%[4][26] - The effective tariff rate for the U.S. is currently 9.75%, with the highest rate on Chinese imports at 40.4%[4][32] Political Response - In response to a potential ruling against reciprocal tariffs, Trump may resort to existing tariff laws such as Sections 232, 301, and 338, but the likelihood of broad tax refunds is low due to legal constraints[3][22] - The probability of universal tax refunds is low, with refunds likely limited to specific plaintiffs rather than a blanket return to all importers[3][25] - Trump's proposal to distribute tariff revenues to citizens faces significant legislative hurdles, requiring Congressional approval[3][25]