1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Jiao coal: Sideways to slightly bearish [1] - Coke: Sideways [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The impact of tariffs will gradually weaken, and the focus will return to the domestic economic situation. The market is looking forward to supply - side production restrictions and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand [4]. - For coking coal, supply is shrinking due to environmental inspections and safety production, but the import pressure from Mongolia remains. If the mine capacity utilization rate continues to decline, the upstream inventory pressure will gradually ease [4]. - For coke, cost and downstream demand are decisive factors. With weakening supply - demand, the second - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented, and there may be two more rounds of price cuts in June if the cost side does not stabilize [4]. - The recent rise in coking coal is mainly driven by supply - side news and should be regarded as a rebound rather than a reversal. Short - term advice is to hold J09 long positions lightly and add positions after confirming the bottom [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal Market Conditions - Spot is weak, while futures are rebounding. Mongolian 5 main coking coal is reported at 893 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is at 757 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan), the basis is 156 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 16 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [1]. - Mine开工率 continues to decline, and coking enterprise开工率 remains flat. The开工 rate of 523 mines is 85.49% (down 0.81), the开工 rate of 110 coal washing plants is 61.55% (down 0.81), and the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 75.08% (down 0.1) [2]. - Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The refined coal inventory of 523 mines is 473.03 million tons (up 25.5 million tons), the refined coal inventory of coal washing plants is 222.07 million tons (up 7.33 million tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 786.79 million tons (down 11.96 million tons), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 716.66 million tons (down 21.3 million tons), and the port inventory is 303.09 million tons (up 1.53 million tons) [2]. Strategy Suggestions - The supply of coking coal is shrinking, but the import pressure remains. If the mine capacity utilization rate continues to decline, the upstream inventory pressure will ease. The recent rise is a rebound, not a reversal. Short - term advice is to hold J09 long positions lightly and add positions after confirming the bottom [4][5]. Coke Market Conditions - The third - round spot price cut has started, and futures are rebounding. Tianjin Port's quasi - first - grade coke is reported at 1340 yuan/ton (unchanged), and some steel mills have started the third - round price cut. The active contract is at 1342 yuan/ton (down 25.5 yuan), the basis is 98.86 yuan/ton (up 25.5 yuan), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 16.5 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan) [3]. - Supply remains flat, and demand has peaked and declined. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 75.08% (down 0.1), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.69% (down 0.63), and the daily average pig iron output is 241.91 million tons (down 1.69 million tons) [3]. - Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 78.33 million tons (up 5.23 million tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 654.93 million tons (down 5.66 million tons), and the port inventory is 217.18 million tons (down 5.91 million tons) [3]. Strategy Suggestions - Cost and downstream demand are decisive factors. With weakening supply - demand, the second - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented, and there may be two more rounds of price cuts in June if the cost side does not stabilize [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Coke - Oscillating weakly [1] - Coking coal - Oscillating weakly [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PMI data in May rebounded month - on - month compared to April. Although it is still below 50, it is stronger than the seasonality, mainly due to the repair of export orders after the China - US economic and trade agreement reached in Geneva. The focus will return to the domestic economic operation. The market is looking forward to supply - side production restrictions and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand [4]. - For coking coal, supply is shrinking due to environmental inspections and safety production, and the biggest bearish pressure is loosening. However, the high - level Mongolian coal customs clearance still poses import pressure. If the mine capacity utilization rate continues to decline, the upstream inventory accumulation pressure will gradually ease [4]. - For coke, cost and downstream demand are the decisive factors for its future trend. With the continuous decline of coking coal prices, coke enterprises still have a small profit and supply remains flat. Iron - water production has been decreasing for three consecutive weeks, and demand has peaked. If the cost side does not stabilize, it is expected that coke spot prices may see two more rounds of price cuts in June [4]. - Currently, the price has basically reached the cost line of most coal mines, and the room for further decline is limited. Short - term advice is to continue to hold a small position of J09 long orders and add positions after confirming the bottom [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Supply - The supply of coking coal is affected by environmental inspections and safety production and has begun to shrink. Domestic coking coal mine operating rates have declined from their high levels. 523 mines have an operating rate of 85.49% (-0.81), and 110 coal washing plants have an operating rate of 61.55% (-0.81) [1]. Inventory - Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. 523 mines have a clean coal inventory of 473.03 million tons (+25.5), coal washing plants have a clean coal inventory of 222.07 million tons (+7.33), 247 steel mills have an inventory of 786.79 million tons (-11.96), 230 coke enterprises have an inventory of 716.66 million tons (-21.3), and port inventory is 303.09 million tons (+1.53) [2]. Price - Mongolian 5 coking coal is reported at 918 yuan/ton (-0), and the active contract is reported at 768 yuan/ton (+49). The basis is 145 yuan/ton (-74), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -18 yuan/ton (-1.5) [1]. Coke Supply - Coke supply remains flat. The production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is reported at 75.08% (-0.1) [1][3]. Demand - Demand has peaked and declined. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 90.69% (-0.63), and the daily average iron - water output is 241.91 million tons (-1.69) [3]. Inventory - Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. 230 coke enterprises have an inventory of 78.33 million tons (+5.23), 247 steel mills have an inventory of 654.93 million tons (-5.66), and port inventory is 217.18 million tons (-5.91) [3]. Price - The quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1340 yuan/ton (-0), and some steel mills have initiated the third - round price cut. The active contract is reported at 1367.5 yuan/ton (+68.5). The basis is 73.36 yuan/ton (-68.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -8.5 yuan/ton (+15) [3]. Strategy Recommendations - For coking coal, if the mine capacity utilization rate continues to decline, the upstream inventory accumulation pressure will gradually ease. - For coke, if the cost side does not stabilize, it is expected that coke spot prices may see two more rounds of price cuts in June. Short - term advice is to continue to hold a small position of J09 long orders and add positions after confirming the bottom [4][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "shock weakening", and for coking coal is also "shock weakening" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The impact of tariffs will gradually weaken, and the focus will return to the domestic economic situation. The market is looking forward to supply - side production restrictions and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand. For coking coal, supply contraction due to environmental inspections and safety production, but high - level Mongolian coal imports still pose pressure. For coke, cost and downstream demand are decisive factors, with supply remaining flat and demand peaking and falling [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Related Information - In May, China's manufacturing PMI index was 49.5, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, mainly due to the repair of export orders after the China - US economic and trade agreement in Geneva [2] 3.2 Coking Coal 3.2.1 Spot and Futures - The price of Mongolian 5 prime coking coal was reported at 918 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract was reported at 719 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan), the basis was 219 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan), and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 16.5 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan) [2] 3.2.2 Supply - The operating rate of 523 mines was reported at 85.49% (down 0.81%), and the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was reported at 61.55% (down 0.81%) [2] 3.2.3 Inventory - The clean coal inventory of 523 mines was reported at 4.7303 million tons (up 255,000 tons), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants was 2.2207 million tons (up 73,300 tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.8679 million tons (down 119,600 tons), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 7.1666 million tons (down 213,000 tons), and the port inventory was 3.0309 million tons (up 15,300 tons) [3] 3.3 Coke 3.3.1 Spot and Futures - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was reported at 1,340 yuan/ton (unchanged), the second - round price cut was fully implemented, the active contract was reported at 1,299 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan), the basis was 141.86 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan), and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 23.5 yuan/ton (unchanged) [4] 3.3.2 Supply and Demand - The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises was reported at 75.08% (down 0.1%), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was reported at 90.69% (down 0.63%), and the daily average pig iron output was 2.4191 million tons (down 16,900 tons) [4] 3.3.3 Inventory - The inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 78,330 tons (up 5,230 tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills was 654,930 tons (down 5,660 tons), and the port inventory was 217,180 tons (down 5,910 tons) [4] 3.4 Strategy Suggestions - In the short term, it is recommended to hold J09 long positions lightly and add positions after confirming the bottom. For coking coal, if the mine capacity utilization rate continues to decline, the upstream inventory pressure will gradually ease. For coke, if the cost side does not stabilize, there may be two more rounds of price cuts in June [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "shock weakening", and for coking coal is also "shock weakening" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of tariffs will gradually weaken, and the focus will return to the domestic economic situation. The market is looking forward to supply - side production restrictions and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand. According to the policy - market linkage law in recent years, the market sentiment varies in different quarters [4] - For coking coal, supply is shrinking due to environmental inspections and safety production, but the import pressure from Mongolia remains. The current price has almost reached the cost line of most coal mines, and the downward space is limited. The follow - up focus is on the overall position change [4][5] - For coke, cost and downstream demand are decisive factors. Coke enterprises still have a small profit, supply is flat, demand has peaked, and the second - round price cut has been fully implemented. If the cost side does not stabilize, there may be two more rounds of price cuts in June [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Market Conditions - Spot is weak, and futures are declining. The price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal is 918 yuan/ton, the active contract is 726 yuan/ton, the basis is 212 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 21.5 yuan/ton [1] Supply - Mine and coal washing plant开工率 are falling. The开工率 of 523 mines is 85.49%, and that of 110 coal washing plants is 61.55% [2] Inventory - Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The inventory of 523 mines is 473.03 million tons, that of coal washing plants is 222.07 million tons, that of 247 steel mills is 786.79 million tons, that of 230 coke enterprises is 716.66 million tons, and port inventory is 303.09 million tons [2] Coke Market Conditions - The second - round spot price cut has been implemented, and futures are declining. The price of Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade coke is 1340 yuan/ton, the active contract is 1308 yuan/ton, the basis is 133 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 23.5 yuan/ton [3] Supply and Demand - Supply is flat, and demand has peaked and is falling. The productivity of 230 independent coke enterprises is 75.08%, the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.69%, and the daily average pig iron output is 241.91 million tons [3] Inventory - Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The inventory of 230 coke enterprises is 78.33 million tons, that of 247 steel mills is 654.93 million tons, and port inventory is 217.18 million tons [3] Strategy Suggestions - Hold J09 long positions lightly and wait to add positions after confirming the bottom [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for coke and coking coal are both "Oscillating Weakly" [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply of coking coal is starting to contract, and the biggest bearish pressure is loosening. The price of Mongolian coal has continued to decline. The domestic coking coal mine operating rate has fallen from a high level, but the mine's raw coal inventory has not declined due to poor trading. If the mine capacity utilization rate continues to decline, the upstream inventory pressure will gradually ease. For coke, cost and downstream demand are the decisive factors for its future trend. With the continuous decline of coking coal prices, coke enterprises still have a small profit, and the supply remains flat. The pig iron output has been decreasing for two consecutive weeks, indicating that demand has peaked. Under the weakening supply - demand situation, the second - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented, and there is still room for two more rounds of price cuts in the spot market [5] - From the economic data in April, the number of cities with a month - on - month increase in real estate prices has decreased, and the time for housing prices to bottom out has been postponed again. The year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of industrial added value have both declined to some extent compared with March, and are greatly affected by tariffs. Although the total social financing data still shows a year - on - year increase, in terms of structure, it is mainly supported by bills and government bonds, and the financing demand of the real economy has decreased. The government's leverage increase continues, and subsequent fiscal policies may bring surprises. The market is most looking forward to supply - side production restrictions and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand [4] - The farce of US tariffs has resurfaced. After the court ruled on the 29th that the Trump administration's tariff administrative order was invalid, the White House suspended the judgment through an appeal. There will be a tug - of - war over the tariff policy in the US, and it is difficult to get a final result in the short term. Recently, disturbances on the supply side have gradually increased, but the market has hardly reacted, and the prices of coal and coke have continued to decline. Calculated in the extreme case, the cost of coking coal is about 750, and the cost - effectiveness of short - selling is not high. After the market trend reaches an extreme, capital game is often an important factor determining the market bottoming out, and coking coal is the main battlefield for the long - short game at present [6] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The price of Mongolian No. 5 main coking coal is reported at 918 yuan/ton (-2), and the active contract is reported at 759 yuan/ton (-20). The basis is 179 yuan/ton (+18), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -19 yuan/ton (-3) [1] - **Supply - Side Situation**: The mine operation continues to decline, with the operating rate of 523 mines reported at 85.49% (-0.81), and the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants reported at 61.55% (-0.81). The production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is reported at 75.08% (-0.1) [2] - **Inventory Situation**: Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 473.03 million tons (+25.5), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 222.07 million tons (+7.33), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 786.79 million tons (-11.96), the inventory of 230 coke enterprises is 716.66 million tons (-21.3), and the port inventory is 303.09 million tons (+1.53) [2] Coke - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The second - round price cut of coke spot has been fully implemented. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1340 yuan/ton (-0). The active contract is reported at 1332 yuan/ton (-6.5). The basis is 109.52 yuan/ton (+6.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -18 yuan/ton (+6) [3] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply remains flat, and the demand has peaked and declined. The production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is reported at 75.08% (-0.1). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 91.32% (-0.44), and the daily average pig iron output is 243.6 million tons (-1.17) [3] - **Inventory Situation**: Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The inventory of 230 coke enterprises is 73.1 million tons (+7.64), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 660.59 million tons (-3.21), and the port inventory is 223.1 million tons (-2.02) [3] Strategy Recommendations - It is recommended to continue to hold a small - position long position in the J09 contract and wait to confirm the bottom before adding positions [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "shock and weakness"; the trend rating for coking coal is also "shock and weakness" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The real estate price recovery has been postponed, industrial added - value has declined, and the real economy's financing demand has decreased. However, the government's leverage increase continues, and subsequent fiscal policies may bring surprises. The market expects supply - side production cuts and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand [4] - For coking coal, supply is starting to contract, and the biggest bearish pressure is loosening. If the mine capacity utilization rate continues to decline, the upstream inventory pressure will gradually ease. For coke, cost and downstream demand are decisive factors. With the weakening of coking coal prices and the decline of molten iron production, the expectation of the second round of price cuts for coke is strengthening [5] - Recently, supply - side disturbances have increased. Safety incidents and environmental inspections may further limit the supply of coking coal and coke. Although the supply - demand situation is still weak, the pessimistic sentiment may be reversed due to low valuations and supply - side contraction expectations. It is recommended to hold J09 long positions lightly and add positions after confirming the bottom [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - **Spot and Futures Market**: The spot price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is reported at 920 yuan/ton (-50), and the active contract is reported at 779 yuan/ton (-20.5). The basis is 161 yuan/ton (-29.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -16 yuan/ton (-0.5) [2] - **Supply and Demand**: The start - up rate of 523 mines is reported at 86.3% (-2.96), the start - up rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 62.36% (+0.28), and the productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 75.18% (-0.05) [2] - **Inventory**: Upstream inventory has increased, and downstream inventory has decreased. The refined coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 447.53 million tons (+37.08), the refined coal inventory of coal washing plants is 214.74 million tons (+11.48), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 798.75 million tons (+7.54), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 737.96 million tons (-14.6), and the port inventory is 301.56 million tons (-4.53) [2] Coke - **Spot and Futures Market**: The second - round price cut for coke spot has landed. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1340 yuan/ton (-50), and the active contract is reported at 1338.5 yuan/ton (-25.5). The basis is 103.03 yuan/ton (-28.85), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -24 yuan/ton (-0) [3] - **Supply and Demand**: The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 75.18% (-0.05). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 91.32% (-0.44), and the daily average molten iron output is 243.6 million tons (-1.17) [3] - **Inventory**: Upstream inventory has increased, and downstream inventory has decreased. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 73.1 million tons (+7.64), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 660.59 million tons (-3.21), and the port inventory is 223.1 million tons (-2.02) [3] Strategy Suggestions - Considering the economic data in April, the real estate market recovery is delayed, and the real economy's financing demand has decreased. The market is waiting for supply - side production cuts and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand [4] - For coking coal, pay attention to the changes in mine capacity utilization rate and inventory. For coke, focus on cost and downstream demand. It is recommended to hold J09 long positions lightly and wait for the opportunity to add positions after confirming the bottom [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "shock weakening", and for coking coal is also "shock weakening" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the economic data in April, the number of cities with rising real - estate prices decreased, and the time for housing prices to reach the bottom was postponed again. Industrial added - value decreased, and social financing data was mainly supported by bills and government bonds, with the real - economy financing demand declining. However, the government's leverage increase continues, and subsequent fiscal policies may bring surprises. The market is looking forward to supply - side production restrictions and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand [4]. - For coking coal, supply has started to shrink, and the biggest bearish pressure is loosening. If the mine capacity utilization rate continues to decline, the upstream inventory pressure will gradually ease. For coke, cost and downstream demand are decisive factors. The expectation of the second - round price cut for coke is strengthening, and it is expected to be implemented soon. Potential positive factors include supply - side production cuts and fiscal policy support [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Mine开工率 has declined, with the开工 rate of 523 mines at 86.3% (-2.96), and the productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises at 75.18% (-0.05). The demand for coking coal is affected by the decline in iron - water production [2]. Inventory - Upstream mines and coal - washing plants have accumulated inventory, while downstream steel mills and coking enterprises have reduced inventory. The inventory of 523 mines is 447.53 million tons (+37.08), and the inventory of 247 steel mills is 798.75 million tons (+7.54) [2]. Spot Price and Spread - The spot price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is 970 yuan/ton (-0), the active contract is 799.5 yuan/ton (-0), the basis is 190.5 yuan/ton (+0), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -15.5 yuan/ton (-2) [1]. Coke Supply and Demand - The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is 75.18% (-0.05), and the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 91.32% (-0.44), with the daily average iron - water output at 243.6 million tons (-1.17). The demand for coke has peaked [3]. Inventory - Coking enterprises have accumulated inventory, while steel mills and ports have reduced inventory. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 73.1 million tons (+7.64), and the inventory of 247 steel mills is 660.59 million tons (-3.21) [3]. Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The spot price of quasi - first - grade coke in Tianjin Port is 1390 yuan/ton (-0), the active contract is 1364 yuan/ton (-11), the basis is 131.87 yuan/ton (+11), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -24 yuan/ton (-8.5). The expectation of the second - round price cut is strengthening [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for coke is "Oscillating Weakly", and for coking coal is also "Oscillating Weakly" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economy in April showed mixed signals. Real - estate prices and industrial增加值 had setbacks, while government leverage continued. The market is looking forward to supply - side production cuts and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand. The policy - market cycle in recent years shows different market sentiments in each quarter [4] - For coking coal, supply is starting to contract, and the biggest negative pressure is easing. If the mine capacity utilization rate continues to decline, the upstream inventory pressure will gradually ease. For coke, cost and downstream demand are decisive factors. The second - round price cut expectation for coke is strengthening, and it is expected to be implemented soon. Potential positives include possible production cuts in the steel industry and fiscal policy support [5] - Rumors of downstream steel production cuts are fermenting, and the possibility of production cuts is higher than last year. Environmental inspections may further limit the supply of coking coal and coke. Despite the weak supply - demand situation, the pessimistic sentiment may be reversed under low - valuation and supply - side contraction expectations [6] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Coking Coal Supply - The spot price of coking coal has been lowered, and the futures price has declined. The domestic coking coal mine operating rate has dropped significantly. The 523 - mine operating rate is 86.3% (-2.96), and the 110 - coal - washing plant operating rate is 62.36% (+0.28) [2] Inventory - Upstream inventory has increased, and downstream inventory has decreased. 523 - mine clean coal inventory is 447.53 million tons (+37.08), coal - washing plant clean coal inventory is 214.74 million tons (+11.48), 247 - steel - mill inventory is 798.75 million tons (+7.54), 230 - coking - enterprise inventory is 737.96 (-14.6), and port inventory is 301.56 million tons (-4.53) [2] Coke Supply - The expectation of a second - round spot price cut for coke is strengthening, and the futures price has declined. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 75.18% (-0.05) [3] Demand - The demand has peaked and declined. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 91.32% (-0.44), and the daily average pig iron output is 243.6 million tons (-1.17) [3] Inventory - Upstream inventory has increased, and downstream inventory has decreased. 230 - coking - enterprise inventory is 73.1 million tons (+7.64), 247 - steel - mill inventory is 660.59 million tons (-3.21), and port inventory is 223.1 million tons (-2.02) [3] Strategy Suggestion - The current economic data shows a complex situation. Although the real - estate and industrial sectors are under pressure, government leverage continues. The market is waiting for supply - side production cuts and fiscal policies. For coking coal, the supply contraction may relieve inventory pressure. For coke, the second - round price cut is likely to be implemented. The potential positives may change the market sentiment [4][5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Coke: Oscillation [1] - Coking coal: Oscillation with a downward bias [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The economic data in April shows that the number of cities with rising real - estate prices has decreased, and the time for housing prices to bottom out has been postponed again. Industrial added - value has declined compared to March, and the social financing structure is mainly supported by bills and government bonds, with the financing demand of the real economy decreasing. However, the government's leverage increase continues, and subsequent fiscal policies may bring surprises [4]. - For coking coal, supply is the biggest negative factor. Domestic coking coal mine production has slightly declined but remains at a high level for the year, and mine coking coal inventories are accelerating. For coke, cost and downstream demand are decisive factors. After the continuous over - expected increase in hot metal production, there was a slight decline this week, and the first round of spot price cuts for coke has been implemented. Without obvious signs of crude steel production cuts and fiscal policy efforts, coal and coke are likely to maintain a weak oscillation pattern [5]. - Fundamentally, the short - term supply and demand of coal and coke have no obvious changes and remain weak. As the basis and monthly spread strengthen, the resistance to further decline of the 09 contract will increase. The potential downward space for coking coal is about 100, and for coke is about 140, so chasing short positions is not cost - effective. It is recommended to hold a small long position in the J09 contract and add positions after confirming the bottom [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Related Information - Spot prices have been lowered, and futures prices have continued to decline. The price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal is reported at 970 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the active contract is reported at 842 yuan/ton (+3.5). The basis is 148 yuan/ton (-3.5), and the 9 - 1 monthly spread is - 14.5 yuan/ton (-16.5) [1]. 3.1.2 Supply and Demand - Mine production has slightly declined, and coking enterprise production has remained flat. The production rate of 523 mines is reported at 89.26% (-0.66), the production rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 62.08% (-0.34), and the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 75.23% (+0.18) [2]. 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream inventories have increased, and downstream inventories have decreased. The coking coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 4.1045 million tons (+200,200 tons), the coking coal inventory of coal washing plants is 2.0326 million tons (+59,800 tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 7.9121 million tons (+40,000 tons), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 7.5256 million tons (-226,100 tons), and the port inventory is 3.0609 million tons (+82,800 tons) [2]. 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Related Information - The first round of spot price cuts has been implemented, and futures prices have oscillated downward. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1390 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the active contract is reported at 1417.5 yuan/ton (+10). The basis is 78.37 yuan/ton (-10), and the 9 - 1 monthly spread is - 27 yuan/ton (+3) [3]. 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - Supply has remained flat, and demand may have reached its peak. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 75.23% (+0.18). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 91.76% (-0.33), and the daily average hot metal output is 2.4477 million tons (-87,000 tons) [3]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Upstream inventories have remained flat, and downstream inventories have decreased. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 65,460 tons (+370 tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 663,800 tons (-7,230 tons), and the port inventory is 225,110 tons (-3,970 tons) [3]. 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - At present, the economic data in April shows that the real - estate market is still in the process of bottom - seeking, and the real economy's financing demand is weak. However, government leverage increase continues, and fiscal policies may bring positive effects. In the case of super - expected positive news from the Sino - US tariff negotiation, the black sector still shows a weak trend. Supply - side production cuts and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand are what the market is most looking forward to [4]. - In the short term, it is recommended to hold a small long position in the J09 contract and add positions after confirming the bottom. The potential downward space for coking coal is about 100, and for coke is about 140, so chasing short positions is not cost - effective [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "sideways", and for coking coal is "sideways with a weak bias" [1] Core Viewpoints - The economic data in April shows that the number of cities with rising real - estate prices has decreased, and the time for housing prices to bottom out has been postponed again. Industrial added - value has declined, and the financing demand of the real economy has decreased. However, the government's leverage increase continues, and subsequent fiscal policies may bring surprises [4] - For coking coal, supply is the biggest negative factor. For coke, cost and downstream demand are decisive. The iron - water output has declined slightly this week, and the first - round price cut for coke spot has been implemented. Without obvious signs of crude - steel production cuts and fiscal - policy stimulus, coal and coke are likely to maintain a weak and sideways pattern [5] - In the short term, coal and coke are in a downward trend, but as the basis and spread strengthen, the resistance to further decline of the 09 contract will increase. It is not cost - effective to chase short positions. It is recommended to hold a small long position in the J09 contract and add positions after confirming the bottom [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal 1. Supply and Demand - Domestic coking - coal mine operating rates have declined slightly but remain at a high level for the year. The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is 75.23% (+0.18), and the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 91.76% (-0.33), with the daily average iron - water output at 244.77 tons (-0.87) [2][3] 2. Inventory - Upstream inventories are accumulating, and downstream inventories are decreasing. The refined - coal inventory of 523 mines is 410.45 million tons (+20.02), the refined - coal inventory of coal - washing plants is 203.26 million tons (+5.98), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 791.21 million tons (+4), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 752.56 million tons (-22.61), and the port inventory is 306.09 million tons (+8.28) [2] 3. Spot Price and Spread - The spot price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is 970 yuan/ton (-45), the active contract is 838.5 yuan/ton (-6.5), the basis is 151.5 yuan/ton (-38.5), and the 9 - 1 spread is - 12.5 yuan/ton (-2) [1] Coke 1. Supply and Demand - The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is 75.23% (+0.18). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 91.76% (-0.33), and the daily average iron - water output is 244.77 tons (-0.87) [3] 2. Inventory - The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 65.46 million tons (+0.37), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 663.8 million tons (-7.23), and the port inventory is 225.11 million tons (-3.97) [3] 3. Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1390 yuan/ton (-0), the active contract is 1407.5 yuan/ton (-20.5), the basis is 88.37 yuan/ton (+20.5), and the 9 - 1 spread is - 30 yuan/ton (-3.5) [3]