需求方面，西南期货分析称，年末消费淡季特征明显，但由于今年春节假期较晚，故目前仍存在刚性采 购需求。海外炼企利润修复逐步复产，叠加国内精炼锌出口补充，海外供需紧张局面有所缓解。 后市来看，国投安信期货表示，1月锌精矿TC明显走低，国内炼厂检修持续，供应端压力偏弱，节后下 游消费逐步恢复，叠加2026年一季度开门红预期，节后多头入场，带动盘面明显走高。现货市场报价偏 混乱，下游对高价接货意愿不足，沪锌短线有望围绕2.38万元一线整理。技术面看，沪锌仍处反弹形态 中，底部稳固，反弹压力区间在2.4-2.42万元/吨。 1月6日，国内期市有色金属板块集体走高。其中，沪锌期货主力合约现报24325.00元/吨，大幅上涨 2.40%。 宏观方面，据铜冠金源期货介绍，市场对地缘冲突反应平淡，同时美国12月ISM制造业PMI意外创2024 年以来最大萎缩，降息预期升温，美元回落，提振金属。国内股市开门红，亦利好市场风险偏好。 供应端，正信期货指出，从全球整体视角看，锌矿周期性供给增加逐步落地，矿端增产到冶炼放量的传 导节奏由于海外炼厂减产而被延缓。此外，从绝对量级上看，在锌矿增产一年后，全球冶炼产能仍相对 于矿产能过剩，预 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main point of the article is the strong rebound of polysilicon futures, which shifted from a nearly 4% decline to a positive performance, currently priced at 53,230 yuan per ton. Additionally, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association has stated that circulating rumors are false [1]. Group 1 - Polysilicon futures experienced a significant rebound, moving from a decline to a rise [1] - The current price of polysilicon futures is reported at 53,230 yuan per ton [1] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association has declared that the rumors circulating online are untrue [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - After the futures atmosphere improved, the spot market started to buy at low prices, and the futures price rebounded technically after bottoming out. However, the loose supply - demand pattern has not reversed, and the market lacks driving forces. Investors should be cautious about chasing up [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The futures market opened high and trended lower today, with a relatively strong intraday oscillation. Affected by the futures rebound yesterday, the upstream factory transactions improved, and today's quotes rebounded slightly. The ex - factory transaction price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton, and some Hebei factories quoted 1680 - 1690 yuan/ton, mainly for export port - collection orders. Urea factories have mainly resumed production in the past two weeks, and the output has recovered. Currently, the daily output is close to 190,000 tons. Recently, some Shanxi plants stopped for technical transformation, resulting in a slight decrease in regional output. On the demand side, after the price dropped to an acceptable range for downstream users and the futures rebounded, downstream users gradually started to purchase. After the military parade, the operating load of compound fertilizer factories rebounded, and the current operation is basically the same as last year. The finished product inventory of compound fertilizer factories has been continuously reduced this month, and fertilizers are being transferred to the end - users. Although the current output has decreased, due to insufficient domestic demand, the inventory is still increasing and is much higher than the same period in previous years, which restricts the upward movement of urea prices [1] Futures and Spot Market Futures - The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1700 yuan/ton, opened high and trended lower, with a relatively strong intraday oscillation, and finally closed at 1686 yuan/ton, forming a negative line, with a change rate of +0.42%. The open interest was 277,334 lots (-7,644 lots). Among the top twenty main positions of the main contract, the long positions decreased by 3,955 lots, and the short positions decreased by 5,791 lots. Hongyuan Futures had a net long position of +752 lots, Zhongtai Futures had a net long position of -991 lots; CITIC Futures had a net short position of +1357 lots, and Guotai Junan had a net short position of -551 lots. On September 16, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,279, a decrease of 334 from the previous trading day [2] Spot - Affected by the futures rebound yesterday, the upstream factory transactions improved, and today's quotes rebounded slightly. The ex - factory transaction price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton, and some Hebei factories quoted 1680 - 1690 yuan/ton, mainly for export port - collection orders [1][4] Fundamental Tracking Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotes and the futures closing price both increased. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was -26 yuan/ton (+17 yuan/ton) [8] Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on September 16, 2025, the national daily urea output was 188,600 tons, basically unchanged, and the operating rate was 79.69% [10]

Core Insights - The rebound in U.S. soybean futures may be short-lived, with two key factors influencing its sustainability [1] Group 1 - The current market dynamics suggest that the recent increase in soybean futures could be temporary [1] - Analysts are closely monitoring weather conditions and export demand as critical factors affecting soybean prices [1]

Core Insights - The threat of flash floods in Thailand is offsetting negative impacts on demand, leading to a halt in the two-day decline of Japanese rubber prices, raising questions about potential rebound opportunities in the future [1] Group 1 - The flash flood threat in Thailand is significantly influencing market dynamics, particularly in the rubber industry [1] - Japanese rubber prices have ended a two-day decline, indicating a possible stabilization in the market [1] - There is speculation regarding future rebound opportunities for rubber prices amidst changing demand conditions [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Jiao coal: Sideways to slightly bearish [1] - Coke: Sideways [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The impact of tariffs will gradually weaken, and the focus will return to the domestic economic situation. The market is looking forward to supply - side production restrictions and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand [4]. - For coking coal, supply is shrinking due to environmental inspections and safety production, but the import pressure from Mongolia remains. If the mine capacity utilization rate continues to decline, the upstream inventory pressure will gradually ease [4]. - For coke, cost and downstream demand are decisive factors. With weakening supply - demand, the second - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented, and there may be two more rounds of price cuts in June if the cost side does not stabilize [4]. - The recent rise in coking coal is mainly driven by supply - side news and should be regarded as a rebound rather than a reversal. Short - term advice is to hold J09 long positions lightly and add positions after confirming the bottom [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal Market Conditions - Spot is weak, while futures are rebounding. Mongolian 5 main coking coal is reported at 893 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is at 757 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan), the basis is 156 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 16 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [1]. - Mine开工率 continues to decline, and coking enterprise开工率 remains flat. The开工 rate of 523 mines is 85.49% (down 0.81), the开工 rate of 110 coal washing plants is 61.55% (down 0.81), and the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 75.08% (down 0.1) [2]. - Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The refined coal inventory of 523 mines is 473.03 million tons (up 25.5 million tons), the refined coal inventory of coal washing plants is 222.07 million tons (up 7.33 million tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 786.79 million tons (down 11.96 million tons), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 716.66 million tons (down 21.3 million tons), and the port inventory is 303.09 million tons (up 1.53 million tons) [2]. Strategy Suggestions - The supply of coking coal is shrinking, but the import pressure remains. If the mine capacity utilization rate continues to decline, the upstream inventory pressure will ease. The recent rise is a rebound, not a reversal. Short - term advice is to hold J09 long positions lightly and add positions after confirming the bottom [4][5]. Coke Market Conditions - The third - round spot price cut has started, and futures are rebounding. Tianjin Port's quasi - first - grade coke is reported at 1340 yuan/ton (unchanged), and some steel mills have started the third - round price cut. The active contract is at 1342 yuan/ton (down 25.5 yuan), the basis is 98.86 yuan/ton (up 25.5 yuan), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 16.5 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan) [3]. - Supply remains flat, and demand has peaked and declined. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 75.08% (down 0.1), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.69% (down 0.63), and the daily average pig iron output is 241.91 million tons (down 1.69 million tons) [3]. - Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 78.33 million tons (up 5.23 million tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 654.93 million tons (down 5.66 million tons), and the port inventory is 217.18 million tons (down 5.91 million tons) [3]. Strategy Suggestions - Cost and downstream demand are decisive factors. With weakening supply - demand, the second - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented, and there may be two more rounds of price cuts in June if the cost side does not stabilize [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in coking coal and coke futures is seen as a potential signal of market improvement, although the underlying fundamentals remain weak [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 4, coking coal futures surged by 7.19%, marking the largest single-day increase since September 30, 2024, while coke futures rose by 5.72% [1]. - The recent price increases are attributed to oversold conditions and policy expectations, with coking coal futures having dropped 57.19% since their peak in October of the previous year [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current market conditions indicate that approximately 50% of coal mines are facing losses due to the low futures prices, which may lead to production cuts or shutdowns, thereby reducing marginal supply [1]. - Despite the recent price increases, the actual demand remains weak, with steel mills continuing to lower coke prices and high inventory levels of coking coal at production sites [2]. Group 3: Regulatory Impact - The new Mineral Resources Law, effective July 1, is expected to increase environmental costs and tighten capacity approvals, potentially improving the coal market outlook [1]. - However, the actual impact of the law on coal mining operations and costs will need to be monitored post-implementation [1].