【冠通研究】 盘面回弹，等待驱动 制作日期：2025 年 9 月 16 日 【策略分析】 今日高开低走，日内偏强震荡，昨日受期货反弹影响，上游工厂成交转好， 今日报价有小幅反弹。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂成交价格范围 多在 1600-1630 元/吨，河北部分工厂报价 1680-1690 元/吨，但高报价工厂主要 执行出口集港订单。尿素工厂近两周复产为主，产量回升，目前日产接近 19 万 吨，近期山西装置技改停车，地区产量小幅减少，需求端，价格前期已下跌至下 游可接受范围，期货反弹后下游陆续开启拿货，行情边际转好。阅兵后一周复合 肥工厂开工负荷回升，目前开工同步去年基本持平，本月复合肥厂成品库存连续 去化，肥料目前开启至终端转移，且尿素价格近期偏弱运行，工厂利润抬升，但 目前备肥已近七八成，后续增量受限。虽产量目前减量，但下游内需不足，库存 依然表现为增加，且目前库存高企，大幅高于往年同期，制约尿素价格上行。整 体来说，期货氛围转好后，现货开启低价拿货，盘面筑底后开启技术性反弹，但 宽松格局尚未逆转，市场缺乏驱动，谨慎追涨。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1700 元/吨开盘， ...

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Jiao coal: Sideways to slightly bearish [1] - Coke: Sideways [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The impact of tariffs will gradually weaken, and the focus will return to the domestic economic situation. The market is looking forward to supply - side production restrictions and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand [4]. - For coking coal, supply is shrinking due to environmental inspections and safety production, but the import pressure from Mongolia remains. If the mine capacity utilization rate continues to decline, the upstream inventory pressure will gradually ease [4]. - For coke, cost and downstream demand are decisive factors. With weakening supply - demand, the second - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented, and there may be two more rounds of price cuts in June if the cost side does not stabilize [4]. - The recent rise in coking coal is mainly driven by supply - side news and should be regarded as a rebound rather than a reversal. Short - term advice is to hold J09 long positions lightly and add positions after confirming the bottom [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal Market Conditions - Spot is weak, while futures are rebounding. Mongolian 5 main coking coal is reported at 893 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is at 757 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan), the basis is 156 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 16 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [1]. - Mine开工率 continues to decline, and coking enterprise开工率 remains flat. The开工 rate of 523 mines is 85.49% (down 0.81), the开工 rate of 110 coal washing plants is 61.55% (down 0.81), and the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 75.08% (down 0.1) [2]. - Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The refined coal inventory of 523 mines is 473.03 million tons (up 25.5 million tons), the refined coal inventory of coal washing plants is 222.07 million tons (up 7.33 million tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 786.79 million tons (down 11.96 million tons), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 716.66 million tons (down 21.3 million tons), and the port inventory is 303.09 million tons (up 1.53 million tons) [2]. Strategy Suggestions - The supply of coking coal is shrinking, but the import pressure remains. If the mine capacity utilization rate continues to decline, the upstream inventory pressure will ease. The recent rise is a rebound, not a reversal. Short - term advice is to hold J09 long positions lightly and add positions after confirming the bottom [4][5]. Coke Market Conditions - The third - round spot price cut has started, and futures are rebounding. Tianjin Port's quasi - first - grade coke is reported at 1340 yuan/ton (unchanged), and some steel mills have started the third - round price cut. The active contract is at 1342 yuan/ton (down 25.5 yuan), the basis is 98.86 yuan/ton (up 25.5 yuan), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 16.5 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan) [3]. - Supply remains flat, and demand has peaked and declined. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 75.08% (down 0.1), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.69% (down 0.63), and the daily average pig iron output is 241.91 million tons (down 1.69 million tons) [3]. - Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 78.33 million tons (up 5.23 million tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 654.93 million tons (down 5.66 million tons), and the port inventory is 217.18 million tons (down 5.91 million tons) [3]. Strategy Suggestions - Cost and downstream demand are decisive factors. With weakening supply - demand, the second - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented, and there may be two more rounds of price cuts in June if the cost side does not stabilize [4].

而关于煤矿停产减产传闻，上海钢联调研数据显示，截止到5月29日，523家焦煤矿山数据原煤日均产量 191.8万吨，环比减1.8万吨，产能利用率为85.5%，环比减0.8%，减产多受顶库或自身地质原因影响， 但并未出现大面积停减产。 今日来看，双焦涨幅有所收窄，市场普遍关注此轮反弹是否为预期好转信号。而立足基本面来看，焦煤 焦炭弱势难改。 （文章来源：新华财经） 据广发期货研报分析，双焦昨日大涨主要受到超跌修复与政策预期影响。焦煤期货自去年10月高点已累 计下跌57.19%，大幅贴水现货仓单成本。从煤矿成本曲线来看，目前期货盘面价格使至少50%左右的煤 矿面临亏损，可能引发部分高成本煤矿减产、停产，造成供给边际下滑。 新华财经北京6月5日电 4日，持续低迷的焦煤焦炭期货突然出现反弹，截至当日下午收盘，焦煤期货主 力合约大涨7.19%，创下2024年9月30日以来最大单日涨幅，焦炭期货主力合约价格也同步大幅反弹 5.72%。 从现货基本面来看双焦仍未有显著变化。上海钢联消息指出，5日海运炼焦煤港口现货弱势运行。目前 部分钢厂对焦炭提降第三轮，整体悲观情绪不减，产地炼焦煤库存居于高位，价格也不断下滑，黑色期 货虽有 ...